According to a new American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 538 RVs taken Aug. 10-12:
 | MONTANA |
| Sheehy | 51 |
| Tester | 45 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
According to a new American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 538 RVs taken Aug. 10-12:
| MONTANA |
| Sheehy | 51 |
| Tester | 45 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
22 responses to “Sheehy starting to grow lead in MT senate race”
First
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Any other poles? This was a good find by Jeff in the other thread.
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Waiting for more new polls. I know Monmouth says they will drop a national poll today. I expect Trump 40 Harris 49, simply because they can.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hunter-biden-asked-state-department-aid-burisma-deal-while-father-was-vp
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An update on the current Presidential ad landscape
‣This week thru Labor Day:
🔴$94.5M🔵$29.0M
‣9/3-Election Day:
🔵$160.1M🔴$75.4M
‣Total spending/res since Biden dropped (7/22-11/5):
🔵$343.9M🔴$261.7M
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OHPol: Defend American Jobs is placing new reservations in Ohio markets. So far, we’ve seen $8M placed. Ads are set to begin 8/22. Republicans have retaken the future reservation advantage in the #OHSen contest.
Updated OH Senate future reservations:
🔴$96.5M
🔵$86.2M
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NHPol: Less than a month away from primary day in the Granite State, we’ve seen $7.5M in ad spending and reservations for #NHGov.
Top advertisers:
🔵Put New Hampshire First: $2.8M
🔴Kelly Ayotte: $2.6M
🔵Joyce Craig: $1.0M
🔵Cinde Warmington: $930K
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Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
Maricopa County, AZ, which updates daily now, shows the GOP+161,332 over Ds. This is a bigger lead in the COUNTY than the Rs had in the whole state in 2020 (130,000). Statewide the Rs lead by just under 260,000.
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2024 GE: @J_L_Partners | @DailyMail
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 2%
#145 (1.6/2.0) | 1,001 LV | 8/7-11 | ±3.1%
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13739189/donald-trump-kamala-harris-poll.html
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So, quemala still trails. I don’t think she can continue to hide. She is being surgically amen apart. Moreover, we have three drats that threw her under the bus for trying to “separate from Biden’s policies.
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Most of it is not being spent in PA except for where Jason lives. I am curious if the totals are broken down by state.
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Polling has entered the silly season.
Cook Political did a bunch of battleground state polls starting almost three weeks ago, back on 7/26. Right at the height of the Harris bump, but they hold the polls until today when it was looking like Harris is starting to sag. And these were tiny samples of only about 400 per state. But the effect is to show that Harris is still holding strong.
Then FAU is out with a poll of Florida today showing Trump ahead of Harris only +2 (OH NO THE SKY IS FALLING!). At least that’s the reaction they hope you have. But looking at the internals they asked how people in the survey voted in 2020, and they said:
(565) 53.5% voted Biden
(427) 40.5% voted Trump
(27) 2.6% voted Other
(36) 3.4% didn’t vote
I had no idea that Biden won Florida in 2020 by a whopping 13 point gap! Oh wait, he didn’t, Trump won Florida by over 3.
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DW, thank for pointing out the dates on those polls. I was trying to find crosstabs, but they are behind a paywall.
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yeah they are holding poles from her announcement aka the sugar high. She got a bounce but the bounce has receded as she is hidden
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So Florida pole is drat plus 13?
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Tina, not sure of their party weighting, but the 13 gap was in who those surveyed voted for in 2020. Obviously Biden did not win by 13 points in Florida in 2020.
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DW, you better watch what you post or you’ll get a letter from the EU.
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oversampling to get a closer result (fake), dw thanks.
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New Thread
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