According to Suffolk University USA Today/Suffolk poll taken 8/7-8/11 against 500 likely voters. This same pollster found the race in Florida tied in 2020.
 | FLORIDA |
| Trump | 47 |
| Harris | 42 |
| Others | 7 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
29 responses to “Trump up 5 in Florida”
First!
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Trump will have to pull off a decisive win in the Sept. 10 debate to change the momentum. Other than that debate, Harris is going to speak to the press hardly at all in the next 84 days. It’s a run-out-the-clock campaign.
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Right now the best polls for Harris the leftist pollsters are putting out is Harris +3 nationally. As I pointed out last week, for some odd reason, this Harris ‘surge’ isn’t showing up in the polling of non-battleground states, while at the same time somehow shows up in the national polling, except for Rasmussen and a few others. I will repost this, because I think its still a great unanswered question. I had forgotten there was an OH poll, so I included this too. Again, I am not saying Harris isn’t closer and she did get a bump, but who wouldn’t when the replaced candidate was nearly dead. But I am saying this surge narrative is overblown. And her support among those who jumped to her side is not galvanized and can easily pull away gain. Not to the extent as against the demented Biden, but plenty of room for Trump to win.
Remember all Trump needs is to flip GA and PA, and that is 270.
From last week:
Everyone likes to keep their focus on the national polls, and the polls of battleground states. Understandable. However, in measuring the size of the media created Harris “surge,” you know, because she is actually alive and debatably sane, unlike the zombie she replaced, the non-battleground states can prove helpful as well. In these polls, there would be little to no incentive to juice the numbers for the purpose of nudging the narrative in the direction of Harris.
But if her surge is real, and long-lasting, we should see it showing up in the non-battleground states as well. So lets take these one at a time:
CALIFORNIA:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +20
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +21
No statistically relevant movement in the largest state.
NEW YORK:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +10
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +11.6
Little statistically relevant movement, but either way much closer than 2020.
FLORIDA:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +8
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Trump +8
Absolutely no difference.
OHIO:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +9
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Trump +9
Absolutely no difference.
OREGON (one poll each):
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +11
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +5
More data needed, but certainly no Harris surge recorded here so far.
TEXAS:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +9.5
Currently, there are ZERO Trump vs. Harris polls of Texas, which strikes me as odd. The leftist media, and leftist pollsters have been polling and repolling Texas all year desperately trying to find it in play. You would have to think that they have been polling it over and over since Harris jumped in, but for some reason they don’t want to release the results. Wonder why?
WASHINGTON:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +11
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +14
The Biden number was artificially deflated by an absurd Bullfinch group poll showing Trump actually ahead. The last two polls of Washington state found Biden up 16 and 14. Basically the same as the one new poll including Harris.
I am not sure what the combined percentage of the country’s population lives in CA, NY, FL, OH, OR and WA, but its a good chunk. And so my question is simply, why does the Harris “surge” only show up in media and university national polling, and in their battleground state polling, when at the same time it does not show up in CA, NY, FL, OH, OR, (TX?), and WA?
Maybe it has to do with them juicing the turnout models to D+6 or D+7 nationally, and similar adjusting on the state poll demographic weightings rather than any real significant movement?
No doubt Harris got a little bit of a bump in polling, after all, she is alive and can read a teleprompter with reasonable clarity. So sure, there is a boost from that compared to Biden. But this idea that somehow a woman who was disliked so strongly three weeks ago is now suddenly an electoral juggernaut is a bit overblown, and so far, the non-battleground state polling testifies to this fact.
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As to this Florida poll by Suffolk, its absolutely garbage. They probably have been polling relentlessly to find good news for Harris, and when they couldn’t do it, they put their thumb on the scale to get it.
The GOP in Florida has been killing it in party registration numbers and there is absolutely no way Trump’s margin there compared to 2020 would only grow from +3.36 to +5.
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And we are still waiting for a new Texas poll since Harris took over. But there have been ZERO. None. Zilch. They have been no doubt polling it relentlessly, but its not budging, or they would have released the poll numbers.
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Really small sample size by a bad firm
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The run out the clock strategy by Harris (no speaking and protection by the media.) won’t work. The economy is a mess. 70 plus % say so. She is a contributor for the malaise.
A run out the clock strategy worked for clintune. He did not do the last debate. The economy was different.
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In 2020, Suffolk had …
AZ: Trump 46, Biden 50
FL: tied at 45
ME: Trump 39, Biden 51 (final margin 9)
MN: Trump 40, Biden 47 (they got that one right)
NH: Trump 41, Biden 51
NC: Trump 43, Biden 46
PA: Trump 42, Biden 49.
So yes, outside MN, they were 3 to 6 points off in Biden’s favor.
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They are an agenda polling firm for sure.
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Between 7:47 PM and 10:47 PM ET, President Donald Trump’s Space post received 73 million views. During the same period, there were 4 million posts about Elon Musk and President Trump’s conversation on 𝕏, generating a total of 998 million views.”
Probably the greatest campaign event in history.
Of course it counts people outside the US and people like me who tuned in for 15 minutes but still an amazing audience.
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Jealous much?
https://x.com/ElectionWiz/status/1823324145377030516/photo/1
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This HAS to be a fake poll.
Kamilian Kamala surging EVERYWHERE.
I saw so on MSM-LSD.
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Someone, somewhere said that under Biden/Harris admin. there have been 51.4 million illegals entering U.S.
So of course the fact checking MSM-LSD gets involved:
OH, and they are not called illegal aliens, BTW we now call them ‘REMOVABLE NONCITIZENS”.
smh.
“Our rating: False
Immigration experts said the number in the post is wrong. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has reported about 10 million nationwide encounters with removable noncitizens since 2021. The 51 million figure is also not plausible because estimates by immigration and research groups of the number of people living in the country illegally – regardless of when they arrived – ranges between 11 million and 17 million.”
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Those are impressive stats for last night’s Musk/Trump X conversation, especially as there were similar glitches experienced, like DeSantis had, during the early portion of the streaming event. Supposedly Musk offered Harris the same opportunity to be interviewed by him. Could she do such an unscripted feat for two hours?
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Marxism is here already…
WAPO reporter asks what the WH is doing to stop or intervene in Musk’s interview of Trump…
“WOOTSON: Elon Musk is slated to interview Donald Trump tomor- — tonight on — on X. I don’t know if the president is going to tune in. Feel free to say if he is or not. (Laughter.)
But I — I think that misinformation on Twitter is not just a campaign issue. It’s a — you know, it’s an America issue. What role does the White House or the president have in sort of stopping that or stopping the spread of that or sort of inter- — intervening in that?”
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From RRH Elections:
After the Harris campaign said on Friday that Walz had no personal relationship with pro-Hitler imam Asad Zaman, video has been discovered with Walz praising Zaman as a “master teacher” who offered lessons to Walz over “the time they spent together.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/08/13/newly-earthed-video-shows-tim-walz-praising-cleric-who-justified-violence-against-israel/
So for years the left has been saying Trump=Hitler and now its clear that if its anybody, its Walz=Hitler.
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Russia pulling troops out of southern Ukraine to defend against incursion into Russia.
Janzam and Tina hardest hit
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jason, anyone who still thinks the left won’t SHUT DOWN free speech and jail political opponents has been living in a cave with no electricity or contact with the outside world the last four years.
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I found the discussion format on twitter way more helpful for Trump than any of his rallies. His rallies usually turn off potential moderates because he needs to be as bombastic as possible. I hope he returns to rallies and doesn’t do any more of these discussion type townhalls.
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The Harris bump is response bias. However, it gives the elites hope. As long as they have hope winning on election day Trump stays alive. When he puts distance between himself and Harris in the polls assassination is back on the table. They’ll kill him.
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Who are “They?”
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If Harris did something similar to that with Morning Joe, she’d help herself a lot. They might be overly cautious and afraid she will say something stupid.
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Doltz is a disaster.
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Bitter, I think the ‘they’ Phil refers to is the secret service director who hates Trump’s guts, who, just like the last director who quit, could easily relax security and deny requests for help, and leave exposed more rooftops so that another 20 year old can try again.
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Tina Peters crime was to perform a post election audit of the votes before a Dominion crew came in to “service” the machines – aka erase the logs. Her preemptive screen shot showed huge discrepancies in the before and after tally of votes. By questioning the legitimacy of the vote this Gold Star mom has been legally harassed and now convicted of a crime. That seems to be how the Dems intimidate opponents, or anyone else, getting out of line and defying edicts of the government. In the meantime Dems associate their party with democracy and freedom, both of which they are busily, openly attempting to crush.
“Former Mesa County Clerk and gold star mom Tina Peters was found guilty on seven of ten charges for preserving critical election data.
Tina Peters is the Election Clerk from Mesa County, Colorado. She made a copy of her machines’ information before performing the action requested by Griswald, who demanded that all voting machines’s election data should be erased (which is against the law) after the 2020 election.”
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Who are they? The same people in and out of government institutions that invented the Russian hoax, engineered two BS impeachments, covered up the Hunter laptop before an election with a BS letter from 51 security “experts, engineered four outrageous lawfare prosecutions to jail a political opponent, tried to bankrupt him with an outrageous fine of one hundred million plus dollars over something that has never been fined before, and, my favorite, set up a convenient security “lapse” that enabled a patsy to climb on to a rooftop in full view of everyone and get off eight shots from a range of 130 yards with no hindrance whatsoever.
That’s who.
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NT
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wait…how is this possible if there were 15M or so illegal immigrants living in the country when Komrade Kamala took over, and at least 10M new ones came in??
“because estimates by immigration and research groups of the number of people living in the country illegally – regardless of when they arrived – ranges between 11 million and 17 million.”
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk
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Combined views of the conversation with @realDonaldTrump and subsequent discussion by other accounts now ~1 billion
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