According to a new poll from ActiVote taken over a long span of 7/20-8/12 against only 400 Likely voters. This race has been tightening, with the last four polls in a row ranging from a 4-6 point Brown lead.
 | OHIO |
| Moreno | 47 |
| Brown | 52 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
101 responses to “Moreno within 5 in OH Senate race”
I was just listening to Cahaly from Trafalgar on Hannity’s radio program.
He thinks Trump is bleeding independents and the MSM cheerleading and Dem ad blitz is working.
He wants Trump to run ads with Kamala herself contradicting what she is trying to sell now. Of course Hannity instead of listening just went into his pro-Trump talking points, at some point Cahaly said you don’t have to convince me, you have to convince the people who get most of their news from the MSM.
He thinks if Rs wait until 40 days before the election to release an ad blitz it will be too late, the narrative will be baked in.
i didn’t really like the interview, left me with a sense Cahaly thinks Kamala’s numbers will improve further unless there is a huge pushback.
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Hannity is such a blow hard. I haven’t listened to him for at least 12 years now. He can’t shut up and listen, and always talks over top of his guests.
So apparently Cahaly disagrees with Rasmussen, is not finding the independents bleeding like Cahaly. Either way, I agree with Cahaly that a huge pushback is needed.
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jason, apparently they are not going to wait until 40 days before the election:
Pro-Trump super PAC plans $100 million ad blitz. The ad blitz will start during the week of the DNC Convention. The ads will focus on Harris record on immigration and soft on crime. Ads will play in Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
https://x.com/rpyers/status/1823051314491965790
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A tiny bit of improvement in the Morning Consult poll:
2024 GE:
@MorningConsult
🟦 Harris: 47% [-1]
🟥 Trump: 44% [=]
🟪 Other: 4%
[+/- change vs 8/2-4]
——
Trends
July 22 – 🔴 Trump +2
July 28 – 🔵 Harris +1
Aug. 4 – 🔵 Harris +4
Aug. 11 – 🔵 Harris +3
—— 116 (1.8/3.0) | 11,778 RV | Aug. 9-11
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
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There’s all sorts of commentary going around, just today, indicating people are not sitting by and hoping the R’s will pull out a win. The RNC is compiling a larger volunteer force, challenging dem election-related legislation, more actively registering R’s and scrubbing outdated registration data. Then there is Musk getting involved – very involved:
”Beginning in the spring, Elon Musk quietly blocked out an hour on Fridays for a new pursuit: national politics.
In weekly meetings, consultants and vendors for a super political-action committee updated him on their progress toward the discussed goal of turning out 800,000 people to vote for Donald Trump in battleground states. They proposed a budget of about $160 million they would need for the task, most of it to come from Musk himself, and talked about raising an army of more than 6,000 canvassers and other workers, according to people familiar with the matter.”
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They can spend a trillion dollars on attacking Harris, and I hope they do, but they need to get Trump to stop the shtick and actually be succinct, direct and to the point in his public speaking. His news conference last week was meandering.
He needs to stop with personal attacks, people are sick of it in general from either party and it makes people want to move on. If Harris and her support in the media continue to present her as the new breath of fresh air, Trump is going to look like the same old negative, over the top blowhard that his critics have always contended he is.
He wiped the floor with Biden at the debates because they cut his mike. Best thing that ever happened to him. Negative, longwindedness reduces him to a cariature of himself.
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I also am skeptical about the whole Harris surge being more smoke and mirrors than real. Between how she is trying to show her rallies bigger than they really are, stealing policy points from her opponent, and the inability of the dem-dominated media to shush the stolen valor blitz on her weird VP choice, makes me wonder if she will start to fade once the DNC convention is over, exposing more of how false and evilly ambitious Harris/Walz really are.
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I can’t wait to the kids go back to school and start the protest up again. And if the Israel war heats up again that will not be a good look for Biden/Harris admin.
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Jan – People can improve their lives. I don’t believe they can redeem themselves or undo what they did in the past.
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Callahey is right but it is something they have just begun to do now. So callahey will then claim, see they followed my advice.
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Yup and the free passers are falling for quemala.
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He is skeptical they will take his advice, so let’s see.
Hannity was a good example on why he should be skeptical, he kept saying “well how is this possible people believe this narrative and then he would go into the talking points. You have to be patient with Hannity because he always give a long winded answer to his own question before the person asked the question can respond.
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Hannity is not the brightest bulb at faux.
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He needs to stop with personal attacks,”
I find this hilarious, considering what Trump is accused of on a daily basis.
I am lazy so I will just repeat my post from the previous thread
I” think it is bad advice, sorry to go against “conventional wisdom”.
“Focus on issues” is all well and good, but the Dems are not “focusing on issues”, they are focusing on making Trump the scourge of humanity, a Nazi, a rapist, a molester, a thief, an insurrectionist, a misogynist, a racist, etc.
Walt is a nice guy, he engineered the Treaty of Lutatius ending the First Punic Wars and brokered the Bakt Treaty between Egypt and Nubia. In 1192 he was instrumental to the treaty of Jaffa that ended the Third Crusade.
But the fact is a “nice Trump” isn’t going to win any elections. Win or lose Trump has to run as himself, not some new entity concocted by his “allies”.
Politics is a dirty business, no free lunches.”
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Paul A. Szypula
@Bubblebathgirl
Tim Walz says if DJT builds a 30-foot border wall then Walz will invest in 35-foot ladders
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Doltz is a liability on the campaign.
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Nick Sortor
He’s from the gubment and he is near to help.
@nicksortor
·
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DR. FAUCI: “I got infected about two weeks ago. It was my third Covid-19 infection, and I had been vaccinated and boosted a total of six times.”
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I think they got Trump by the nuts now. This link to Epstein is undeniable.
I personally think he needs to pull out of the race. He won’t survive this.
“Former President Donald Trump’s campaign flew in a blue Gulfstream jet formerly owned by sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, using it to travel to several campaign fundraisers over the weekend, the Miami Herald has confirmed.
Trump, enroute on his own private plane to a campaign event in Bozeman, Montana last week, unexpectedly landed in Billings because of mechanical problems, a campaign spokeswoman said. He and part of his staff then flew on a small charter to Bozeman for a rally Friday night. The next day, he switched to another larger Gulfstream with a serial number that matches a plane once owned by Epstein, his former neighbor in Palm Beach, the campaign confirmed.”
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That is some great investigative reporting by the Miami Herald, I tell you.
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his former neighbor in Palm Beach’
He would have about 10,000 ‘neighbors” on Palm Beach.
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Trump is a terrible tribune for himself or the Rs. It is frustrating to watch him run such a poor campaign when it had been so smooth with Biden on the ticket.
Trump and his team had to have considered that the Ds would drop Biden. Trump acts as if he’d never considered the possibility. He may not have. Which is poor planning for him and his team.
So frustrating….
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Unforced error by KJP….
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Troll alert!
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Trump is a terrible tribune for himself or the Rs.”
“The Rs”
Sure it isn’t Rethugs?
“Tribune”?
You ain’t from ’round here, are you?
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https://wltreport.com/2024/08/12/trump-campaign-rips-white-house-claim-that-theres/?utm_source=PTN&utm_medium=mixed&utm_campaign=PTN
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Actually, I’ve been here for decades. I followed Hedgehog Report back when it was winning those blog awards from the Baltimore Sun-Times. (Mobbies?)
Is it not evident that the Trump campaign wasn’t prepared for Biden to drop out?
Trump said as much when he complained about Biden dropping out at the Black Correpondents association.
I’d like Harris to lose. She’s awful.
You can call me a lurker. I am not a troll.
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Ok. I’ll play. What was your prior handle?
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I really want trump to lose. I heart Kamala.
Chumpcrock
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Is it not evident that the Trump campaign wasn’t prepared for Biden to drop out?
No, it is not.
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They were prepared, they had anti-Kamala ads ready to roll the day it happened.
They knew Kamala would be viewed as the second coming of Christ and Walz as the third coming.
It is what it is
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I posted as Harry. Some how this website made me this Cheesecake fellow.
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No troll ever admits to being a troll.
Amazing.
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Harry?
Must of been before my time….
Which puts it like before 2008
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‘Trump is a terrible tribune for himself or the Rs’
So what country are you from Harry?
Because Trump is a terrible tribune does not sound like American English.
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I have been at HHR since 2004. I don’t recall a Harry but I could be wrong.
Might as well try a test.
Name a poster from Massachusetts.
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Don’t get me wrong. If you are not a stupid troll like Dumbchuck you are welcome.
I am just suspicious because it is standard trollism to start with “damm, I wish our side was smarter”
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Maybe i started in 2006…. I was definitely here for 2008 election.
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I started following Hedgehog report and election projection back in 2004. It’s been years. I would post once in a while.
I worked for the state in Texas. I was concerned that I’d get jammed up with my bosses if I posted a bunch of stuff on social media.
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I remember stumbling upon the site in December 2003. Right before the Dean scream. I was Repub4Kerry like some moronic troll. Oh wait, I was a moronic troll.
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I know Wes was from NC.
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https://wltreport.com/2024/08/12/president-trump-unveils-his-20-core-promises-american/?utm_source=PTN&utm_medium=mixed&utm_campaign=PTN
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I usually enjoy just reading others posts. I’ve just gotten really frustrated these last few weeks.
So, I posted.
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I loved the Dean scream. I said, make him the nominee. We can beat him. Then, he got dumped.
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I was a regular at Polipundit.
He lost me when he started calling Bush “El General” and accusing him of treason, so I look for another blog and found HHR.
He had good site going and destroyed it just like Charles Johnson destroyed Little Green Footballs.
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Oh wait, I was a moronic troll.”
You are still moronic, don”t feel bad.
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Last thread on Polipundit was 2009
It is still there.
There is a link to the archives but they are not loaded.
https://swap.stanford.edu/was/20090618203119/http://www.polipundit.com/
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Dean was a moron. Still is.
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LOL
Axios’
@sarafischer
He will let Donald Trump speak all of the falsehoods & misinformation that he wants. I mean, he’s not a journalist … Does he want to be fact checking all the information? So I think it‘s just a platform for Trump to come out say whatever he wants.”
Wow, Trump can say whatever he wants?
Shocking!
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Listening to twitter. Trump sounds good.
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Trump telling about the assassination attempt. Very compelling and strong.
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A true HHR old timer would know Hellbelly and lisab were from Massachusetts. Still, we do need more posters.
Don’t know why Harry has a weird name added.
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The commies did not stop he interview?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/washington-post-reporter-wants-joe-biden-intervene-stop/
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Jason, didn’t Poli end up firing ALL of his co-bloggers? Ace of Spades used to write there and ended up starting his own blog. Poli was a dead ender on immigration; don’t get me wrong, that’s my one deal breaker (mom is an Hispanic immigrant herself), but he went overboard with the whole El General thing. I did laugh at “Arbusto,” though.
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I seem to remember a Harry at the old hhr
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43+ million listeners, I don’t do Twitter though.
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Trump is sounding very good on Twitter. I hate it that he sounds so good.
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Don’t know why Harry has a weird name added.’
I do.
WordPress creates these weird names, that is why I was “jovial” for awhile.
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Ok
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Jason, didn’t Poli end up firing ALL of his co-bloggers?”
Yes, and he had some good ones, much better than him.
But here is the deal, he was an immigrant himself.
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And they were all probably voting for Trump already.
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I don’t think Trump is talking about the issues.
Crockchuck
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I need a correction in my last post Trump talking.
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https://www.facebook.com/reel/3628617240736764/?s=single_unit&cft%5B0%5D=AZVbwxUZUwqyAu-qA2Z7hrslOZeWcgzfuXWvNa0AGs42QIb4tFPjidwMgkoq0nMcolsw_Iq9fpkW76XlGEzuiBoJ6rQ13hzmthP450m5GlUPOFZhNAqEc5LEQdbLbyMwinX_yfaJDL18zG2fSpg4j5H3xfsNTwJDewgPlbY4K0W-kTNSF4ndVf_TYE3YvIK8Hh0&tn=H-R
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Fixed it.
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Thanks.
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wasn’t lisab a vegetarian?
I remember Polaris’s projections in one year being all wrong. Was that 2008 or 2012? I was disappointed.
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mannnn polipundit and little green footballs. that takes me back. BTW Bitter seems you predate me, I came in early 2004…cant believe its been 20 years
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2008? Did you also remember the brokered convention?
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oh man…the brokered convention
just like in 2012…I remember the primaries in .08 and .12
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i came in summer of 2004.
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BOONE COUNTY, WV
Average Household Income
2008 $25,669 (Constant 2024 dollars = $37,456)
2024 $56,182 (up approximately 80 percent)
*********************
Education Budget (Projected tax collection from regular education levy)
2008 $10.4 million ($15.2 million in Constant 2024 dollars)
2024 $6.2 million (down 39 percent)
___________________
Coal Production
2008 30,975,289
2023 4,682,359 (Down 86 percent)
_________________
Coal Employment Direct
2008 4,656
2023 715 (Down 85 percent)
______________________
In 2008, Boone County had five mines that produced more that produced more than 1 million tons, including the largest coal mine in the state. By 2023, there were none, and none even among the top ten largest mines in the state.
In 2008, the avg coal wage was $62,700/year.
In 2024, the average coal wage was $94,500.
______________________
2008 Est. Coal Wages Paid = $291 .9 million
2024 Est. Coal Wages Paid = $67.6 million
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/flashback-kamala-flounders-40-priceless-seconds-trying-name/
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They were wrong every election. And people were still ready to believe him.
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I’ve slept since then. Was that a Polaris idea, the brokered convention?
I would have thought a brokered convention was a delusion. Then Pelosi dumped Biden. Hence, anything is possible.
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harry. Welcome back. Polaris was from here in Texas. Same with Aaron in Texas during the time you were here
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Amoral Scumbag is the one who wanted a brokered convention.
Some people knew him as Robbie, Wobby, Wobbles
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To live is to remember…
· · DW says:
August 30, 2016 at 7:21 am
and in #27, Janz managed to hit a lot of matches on the list:
Top 36 excuses given by Trump supporters for his failure and ultimate defeat:
1. The system was rigged [Janz]
2. The polls are wrong
3. The media was biased, lied about Trump [Janz]
4. Hillary cheated
5. The GOP establishment failed [Nick]
6. Talk radio is at fault
7. The voters are wrong
8. Pence failed
9. Too much outside money for Hillary [Janz]
10. Wives of white gun show males failed to show up.
11. The people wouldn’t accept Trump’s lies
12. Country won’t accept any more Reagans.
13. Ryan and McConnell undermined Trump.
14. Too many illegals voted.
15. Kasich rigged Ohio in favor of Hillary.
16. Poll workers committed fraud.
17. All the candidates would have done worse than Trump. [Janz]
18. The Jews used their influence in the media to hurt Trump.
19. Romney and McCain also lost. [AlbertHodges]
20. No Republican could have won this year–Hillary just too strong. [Janz]
21. I don’t know anybody who voted for Hillary
22. Bush convinced the Kochs to not fund Trump.
23. Cruz did too much damage with his convention speech.
24. Rubio didn’t endorse soon enough.
25. Polaris is always right, so Trump must have won.
26. Mrs. Donald was unfairly accused of plagarism.
27. Someone hacked Donald’s twitter–that wasn’t the #RealTrump.
28. The Russians failed to come through with Hillary e-mail dump.
29. Trump wasn’t a politician, so we had NO IDEA what he was like!
30. Who, me? I never supported Trump!
31. Khan was a set up by liberals and establishment Republicans to make Trump look bad
32. Voters forgot to re-weigh themselves to match re-weighted polls.
33. #NeverTrump Repubicans cost Trump the election. [The godfather]
34. Hillary’s health ended up being too good. [JeffP]
35. Hacked data failed to doom Hillary. [JeffP]
36. Trump flipped on immigration.
· jason says:
August 30, 2016 at 3:54 am
Zzzzz… as usual the Stepford blames everyone for Trump’s defeat except Trump.
192 Responses to “Clinton Leads Trump in MI, PA and AZ / Tied in OH”
August 29, 2016 at 7:26 pm
“Good news . . .” does that mean you are actually for Trump? I’m confused.
August 29, 2016 at 8:02 pm
RC, are you a Trump supporter?
August 29, 2016 at 8:04 pm
Anyone actively working against Trump to help HRC get elected is no better than corrupt and evil HRC herself. There is no excuse for it if you want to preserve this country. I could name names but I think you know who they are.
August 29, 2016 at 8:05 pm
Amen, Jeff!
And like the noonday devil, they know we see them for what they are!”
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Anyone remember AIN? I am looking at some old threads, he posted a lot.
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Russian hoaxer was the Uber R that always voted for the drst
Corey with an e was the gop vanity plate carrier. Loved demented and Hillary and didn’t believe that her thighness was chucked into a medical van when she fainted.
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Robbie owned the brokered convention in ‘12. In ‘08, the rallying cry seemed to be Howard Dean’s “39%!”
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Was Corey also CG? Or were those two different posters.
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Some names from the past….
Knighthawk
Sickofdems
Apologetic California
Mark
Sharon
House Sparrow
Howard Dean
GPO
Jason T.
Tommy Boy
Darrell
Right of Atilla
Phoenixrisen
Anmeister
Sam
Don Quixote
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Corey = CG = Biden Troll
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That’s right. Robbie is the one that wanted a brokered convention. He is also the one who always said the Republicans picked the wrong nominee, and if only they had choosen someone else, then he could have supported them.
I mean, Mitt Romney…literally the poster child for the moderate, Rockefeller Republican was not moderate enough for him.
BTW Romney still would have been 10,000X better than Obama.
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oh man
Howard Dean, PhoenixRisen, Don Quixote, Anmeister, sickofdems, blast from the past night here at HHR
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btw anyone listening to Trump and Elon?
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VictrC: I listened to almost all of it. I thought Trump sounded good. Less crazy. Probably helped himself a bit.
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he seems to be more on point and more relaxed in these types of interviews. Like he was with Bryson.
I wish he were like this during the debates and on the stump
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He said he would eliminate the Dept. of Education. I don’t know if that is new or something he usually says.
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he’s always said that
best comment and take on it that I have seen:
”Elon Musk is not a polished interviewer. This was two guys chatting about stuff, like they were having beers at a pub. As such, I think it was very effective. No gotcha moments, no ridiculous rehash of Charlottesville or of the cemetery story or the other things we expect from the main stream media. The lack of polish meant the discussion meandered at times, but better the meander honestly than to home in like a laser on lies.”
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we’ve always said Americans want to vote for the person they’d want to have a beer with…well. For sure it’s not Harris, this shows his real side
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My husband and I went out for a Mexican dinner & margaritas tonight – listened to some of the Musk/Trump conversation via my phone, as was a friend doing at another table. We listened to the remainder of if once we got home. It was chatty and amicable. They seemed to agree on many policy issues, with Musk wrapping it up by saying “we are at a point where one path will take us to prosperity, that being Trump, and the other to the end of the country, that being Harris.” There were transmission problems early on., brought on by someone hacking into X and trying to take it down. Like Paul said, Trump did ok, and it may have helped him. However, the interesting part of this whole event was listening to these 2 men exchange ideas and agree on many things.
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SASHA STONE
I hope the Trump campaign gets to this before the Harris campaign does. FDR used to have what he called the “fireside chat.” We don’t really have a way to gather the whole public together for a conversation. But X can be that place.
What if Donald Trump and Elon Musk did a weekly show called “Checking in with America” where they talk about the urgent issues facing our country? They could invite guests to speak; they could take questions from the audience – like a mom struggling to put food on the table, a teacher trying to keep the madness out of schools, etc.
If Elon doesn’t want to do it, Trump and Vance should. Do it every week. People would check in. They could get their message out at a time when the media is fawning all over Kamala Harris.
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great idea. Show they really do care about the average American. Not the far left Californian
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The title, “Checking in with America” has such a wholesome sound to it too.
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Demented repeated the Charlottesville hoax
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Greg Price
@greg_price11
·
Follow
Rep. Goldman: “I understand why Donald Trump is afraid to debate.” Baier: “He accepted three. September 4, September 10, September 17.” Rep. Goldman: “NO NO NO.”
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Same. The Canadian was Cory.
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I forget who demented is.
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Jan listened to Trump’s interview during dinner at a restaurant with her husband. But Chicon takes issue with me saying she is in a cult.
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New Thread in 10 minutes
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