Polling by Siena College done August 6-9 against likely voters
Trump trails head to head 46 to 50 in all three states, and with the others included:
WI: Harris 49, Trump 43, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 0
MI: Harris 48, Trump 43, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
PA: Harris 46, Trump 44, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
Probably the worst part of these polls is that they will cause herding, where other polls will be slow to counter these and instead want to conform. But my question still stands how it is that this Harris ‘surge’ only shows up in the battleground states and in some of the national polls, but not in CA, NY, and FL.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
97 responses to “Its all over in the Rust Belt according to the NY Times/Siena College”
And I suppose its not inappropriate to point out that in 2020 NY Times/Siena’s final poll of these three states was:
WI: Trump 41 / Biden 52 (off by 10.3 points in Biden’s favor)
MI: Trump 41 / Biden 49 (off by 5 points in Biden’s favor)
PA: Trump 43 / Biden 49 (off by 5 points in Biden’s favor)
Siena College can put out garbage like that for the NY Times and can still be considered a gold standard by the left, but Trafalgar misses a few races and they are laughed at and mocked. But that’s the world in which we live.
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Maybe a lot of the MSM polls favoring Trump were to get Biden out, and now they revert back to the usual.
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DW
Are the cross-tabs available for that poll. There is is a pretty stark contrast between Siena College and Trafalgar in those states.
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We will probably have to live with polls like these right up until the last set of polls just before Election Day.
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Marv, I have not see any crosstabs. For what its worth, the Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polls had larger samples.
And they were much closer in 2020 to reality than Siena.
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DW,
Ok, thanks. Democracy Institute also found a result similar to Trafalgar. NY Times probably put their thumb on the scales and dumped that poll on us to help deflect from their Tim Walz stolen valor problem.
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I have a couple of questions for the smarter among you:
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Exactly, and stolen valor got worse, as Cn and n brought in a person who did not help dolts case at all.
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test
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AH,
The money to the Harris campaign flowed in immediately after the Biden coup.
Contributors had been withholding their donations pending Biden’s withdrawal.
As for the polls, the most accurate polls are done by each campaign. From what we can tell, Trump’s pollsters maintain that he is still leading in enough states to win and that the Harris sugar high has peaked and will dissipate as we near Election Day.
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https://www.westernjournal.com/new-walz-stolen-valor-footage-posed-battlefield-warrior-national-tv/
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/sen-sherrod-brown-skipping-dnc-amid-tough-reelection-battle-in-ohio-5701357?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=gp&src_src=partner&src_cmp=gp
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Tina,
How goes it for you this morning. You still in the Bay Area?
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The money immediately flowing into the campaign coffers for Harris is very suspect. ActBlue was a major funding PAC for her not asking for the CVV/CVC security codes on credit cards, so a donor’s identity is obscured and can then be compromised by money infusing accounts from outside, unidentified sources. For example someone making a one-time donation of $15 can have that account infiltrated by 15 more donations amounting to 6-figure sums – all categorized as originating from the $15 donor contribution.
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janzam,
Excellent summation.
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It seems the bulk of Harris’s stunning rise in popularity is a manufactured phenomenon, not as a result of an organic turnaround in public opinion.
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hi Marv. Doing well. Hope the same for you.
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What a shit fest. The person responsible for higher privies will bring them down?
Kamala HQ
@KamalaHQ
Vice President Harris: When I am president, it will be my day-one priority to fight to bring down prices. I will take on the big corporations that engage in illegal price gouging. I will take on corporate landlords that unfairly raise rents on working families. I will take on Big Pharma and cap the cost of prescription drugs for all Americans
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https://x.com/Just_A_Dude_AZ/status/1822080108959809869?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1822080108959809869%7Ctwgr%5E076c944b1d1928b9913dc389bb1f8ca75f5f983b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F08%2Fkamala-harris-gets-hilariously-roasted-promising-lower-prices%2F
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Harris couldn’t run a lemonade stand. Price gouging. Unbelievable. Businesses are closing all over the place because they cannot afford to stay open due to the work of Biden and Harris.
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Trump definitely should make a play for NE_02, but another path that might be the best strategy for Trump is:
Hold NC, which seems certain to happen.
Flip GA, which seems on track.
Flip PA, given Harris rejected Shapiro, and PA has held up the best in the polling for Trump among the three rust belt states.
GA + PA = 270 exactly. Without rolling the dice on NV (pun intended) and AZ; and without relying on NE_02 and a 269 tie.
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Tulsi Gabbard
@TulsiGabbard
RETALIATION. A few weeks ago, I had the audacity to tell the truth: that Kamala Harris would essentially be a mouthpiece and puppet of the Military Industrial Complex and National Security State. The next day, July 23, they retaliated. Sadly this is what we can expect from the “Harris” Administration.
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DW
What does RAS us for the D/R/I model? I seem to recall thinking that it might be a little bit too heavy on the R weighting.
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Marv, I am pretty sure they don’t oversample Rs. One needs premium access to see their crosstabs and I won’t pay it. I think it was pretty close to even party split if I recall hearing that correctly.
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The good news is Rasmussen is not alone. CNBC had Trump ahead 2, ActiVote had a tie last week, and even with some of the media polls, they have Harris only a 1 point lead.
So its a close race, but Trump still has the edge. Hold NC, and flip GA and PA, and that’s the ballgame.
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So Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage polling had larger samples (800 to 1000) compared to Siena/NY Times (619-691), for these polls taken the exact same dates here in August, and here again is the tale of the tape, from 2020 and the accuracy of these two pollster:
Siena/NY Times 2020:
WI: Trump 41 / Biden 52 (off by 10.3 points in Biden’s favor)
MI: Trump 41 / Biden 49 (off by 5 points in Biden’s favor)
PA: Trump 43 / Biden 49 (off by 5 points in Biden’s favor)
Trafalgar / Insider Advantage 2020:
WI: Trump 47 / Biden 47 (off by 0.6 points in Trump’s favor)
MI: Trump 47 / Biden 49 (off by 0.7 points in Trump’s favor)
PA: Trump 48 / Biden 46 (off by 3 points in Trump’s favor)
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Don’t forget Trafalgar also had similar results.
Tidbits on Walz only get murkier. He and his wife were married on the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square student event. They honeymooned in China, and have visited China 31 times. This “weird” synchronicity with China along with his gender affirming practices for minors quest, taking parent’s advocacy rights away from them, price fixing tendencies, full throated open borders support, disquieting leadership that increased crime and decreased student proficiencies for his state, squandered a budget surplus and imposed new taxes afterwards, makes one wonder who would vote for such an awful person!!!!
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My posts are all censored.
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Time to start unskewing all the marxist polls.
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Breaking News – Democrats think Trump and Vance are as terrible as Republicans think Harris and Walz are.
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I for one really wonder about how many votes for Biden…now Kamala will get due to each of the below:
(if it is a 00.5% for each one then the R candidate would be up at least 10 more points and everyone would be buying shovels to bury the Biden/Harris administration and the fat lady would have sung until she lost her voice.)
I know. WISHFUL THINKING! that the voters could have actually been focusing on two very different mays to solve the ISSUES faced by our country.
But we have to deal with
>>Trump vs. Kemp feud in GA
>>Trump calls Kamala a “B!tch”
>>Trump rambling about a helicopter he was on that made an emergency landing and Trump insists Willie Brown was on board, when actually it was the Black councilman from LA and not Brown, But Trump is threatening to sue the newspaper that doubts his helicopter story
(Sigh)
Oh, my…what would a 1/2 point change if each of these things were not on voters minds and helping them make their choice?
–Jan 6 and Trump attempt to “overthrow democracy”
–Trump (admittedly bogus) financial lawsuit and conviction in NY
–Trump lawsuits in GA to (falsely) claim “election interference”
–Trump lawsuits in D.C. about classified documents found at Mar Largo that Trump was sitting on
–Trump and Stormy Daniels
–Trump mean tweets
–Trump ability to speak only in junior high language to try to explain anything.
–Trump mistakes as president for 4 years
–Trump’s weekly goofball statements
–Trump being a billionaire and one of the evil people which includes all billionaires except the ones who fund the Dems.
–Trumps advanced years in age
–Trump’s possible mental decline due to his age
–Trump’s statements downplaying CROWVID and other statements (often taken out of context or made up) about “drinking bleach”
–Trump’s past picadilloes and womanizing and degrading treatment and attitude toward women
–Trump’s war he had consistently declared on every other Repub officeholder who dared to disagree on anything to destroy them
–Trump’s past showing he is NOT a long-term true conservative and has been sa D or I more years that he has been an R (but an opportunist instead)
–Trump’s history of giving thousands of dollars in campaign donations to lots of Ds like Chuck Schumer and Kamala Harris
–Trump’s eye-rolling hyperbole
–The size of Trump’s hands
–Trump being married and divorced numerous times
–Trump’s inability to work with other Republicans in congress, much less Dems across the aisle.
–Can’t put Trump back in white house because he will be vindictive toward Dems
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Unskewing polls is silly. But its perfectly fair game to look at past performance and MoE data in polls. NY Times sample sizes were smaller than Trafalgar and Insider Advantage, so NY Times has a larger margin of error, and NY Times was way off in 2020 compared to Trafalgar and Insider Advantage.
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I wouldn’t “unskew” the cross tabs, but I’ll happily junk a pill that is D+7 or greater because those are fantasies. Heck, even D+4 is extreme.
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DW,
Where is the link, or how could I find, the nightly tracking results on RAS as shown above in your 1:01? Thanks.
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Marv,
https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell
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DW
Thanks
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DW,
I went to the link and scrolled through it and could find nothing that looked like what is depicted in 1:01. Any suggestions?
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Another new national poll – Trump 46, Harris 47
Aug. 7-8
1,000RV
Quantus Polls and News
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have they released a poll previously?
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“Question 6: Who do you trust most to handle these issues?
So in this poll, Trump leads Kamala in every category except abortion.
But how will they vote?
UNFRICKING BELIEVABLE.
If theyse voters polled had a brain, then Trump SHOULD be ahead of Kamala by at least 10 points on Economy and jobs, crime and safety and national security/foreign policy.
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DW,
Serious question.
Now that the left has pushed all this Mail in votes nonsense, almost guaranteeing everyone gets a ballot (or two or three) in their hand…
…is there really any difference between outcome of LV and RV polls?
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first of all, its absurd that Trump only leads on the economy by 3%. It shows right there that they are not sampling a true cross section of America, and that no one knows what Komrade Kamala’s policies on the economy are, other than “we are going to fix the problems that need fixing and are problematic”
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try this Marv,
https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell/status/1822299112160575750
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Walt, depends on the given state and their laws
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I’m perplexed about the criticisms I’ve read elsewhere about Trump’s visit to Montana last night. I understand wanting him to focus on battleground states, but that’s the most critical Senate race in the country. He needed to give Sheehy at least a couple days of his campaign for a rally and fundraising.
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Jeff – most of the criticisms come from leftists who are trying to say he’s running away from battleground states because he’s lost them, and trying to paint a picture that he can’t get the kind of crowds Harris can.
It is an absurd narrative they are trying to paint that somehow she is this amazing candidate that the country has been waiting for
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“and that no one knows what Komrade Kamala’s policies on the economy are,”
Vic, you got that right and that is how the Dems want it!!!
Kamala Harris Campaign Website Still Has No Platform or Policy Positions
https://tennesseestar.com/news/kamala-harris-campaign-website-still-has-no-platform-or-policy-positions/admin/2024/08/07/
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DW,
Thanks, that link works and I saved it to my Favorites page. The question is….will this be the page to go to every morning or is it good only for today? Each day brings a new update, so that’s why I asked. I noted the string of numbers at the end of the link which leads me to think that each update will have a different link.
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These Siena polls are weird. Or maybe I am not reading them right.
In Michigan they say there is a HUGE disparity between registered voters and likely voters.
Among registered voters they have TRUMP ahead, 48/45 and Harris up only 1 with the misfits included.
But moving to likely voters, that’s where they say Harris jumps way ahead, 50/46, and 48/43 with the full ballot.
Normally the GOP does better among likely voters, not worse.
But the other problem is NY times seems to be saying that they surveyed 619 Registered voters, out of which they found 619 Likely Voters. Same number.
Further evidence that the numbers in their Michigan poll really might not be bad for Trump is they found Rogers down only three points to Slotkin, 43 to 46.
In the PA poll, where they have Trump down 2 on the full ballot, they have McCormick getting trounced by 14, a gap very unlikely to be that large, so if McCormick is really closer, what does that mean for Trump?
They more I look at these Siena polls, the more they look like suspect.
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Marv, that page is only displayed when Mark Mitchell at Rasmussen Reports decides to display it.
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On the Harris|Walz ledger of negatives you have:
universal health care for everyone including illegals
the cancellation of all individual health care
open borders on steroids
free college to illegals
allowing illegals to vote in federal elections
academic curriculum based on CRT agenda.
parent rights diminished, especially dealing with school curriculums and gender transitioning practices.
DEI emphasized in corporate practices and the military
mask, vaccine mandates and lockdowns when the WHO identifies pandemic conditions, as determined by their own rules.
Trump’s tax breaks not reinstated
higher taxes created by steeper tax brackets
higher Capitol gains taxes with taxes on unrealized gain.
higher estate taxes
continuation of no bail for criminals, defunding the police and higher more daring crime
no limits on spending creating higher inflation
increased weaponization of the IRS, DOJ, police departments against any government protesters, those questioning government practices, or spreading government-defined misinformation.
more media and social media censorship
the take over of green energy, eliminating fossil fuels cataclysmically raising energy costs, and the implementation of electric car and appliance mandates
more China and WEF infiltration into our culture and society where we are no longer anchored in American values
doing away with Christian religious influences
These are just the tip of the iceberg changes that will be on the table with a Harris/Walz administration. Now compare this list to the one retllaw posts about his issues with Trump and the anecdotal grievances he has collected over the years .
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DW,
Ok. So, then I just check that same link each morning and eventually it it updated?
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Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
Tim Walz “misspoke” when he said he carried “weapons of war in war.” He miswrote when he claimed he was a “retired Command Sergeant Major.” Other way to say this is he’s a liar.
·
5,023 Views
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Marv, just go to this link:
https://x.com/Mark_R_Mitchell
And scroll down to see what’s he’s got.
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U.S. men just won gold. Steph Curry couldn’t miss in the fourth quarter.
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The Quantus poll I mentioned earlier is their first of the year for a national poll, so nothing to compare to.
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DW,
Thanks again. Do you plan to post RAS each day that Mitchell updates the nightly tracking results?
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yes, I will post it if I can see it. Sometimes MG has posted it too.
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DW,
Great. Thanks.
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No matter, a 1% Komrade Kamala win in the popular vote is a big win in the electoral college for trump
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Trump campaign hacked, internal memos sent to Politico
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DW,
I hate to admit it, but the only way I can see the nightly results is by clicking on the link which you provided that ends with the string of numbers. On the other link, I scroll down to the end and don’t see it. Perhaps because I am not actually logged on to X, but just clicking on your link?
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VictrC,
Politico should know that it is a crime to publish or relay to anyone else what the hacked material says.
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So, a foreign power is interfering in the election?
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Thanks MG, that answers Marv’s earlier question, Rasmussen is using a D+2. More than fair given what Gallup shows.
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Some of the other crosstabs bother me, particularly, Trump leading women 47-46 and getting 33% of the Black vote and 52% of the Hispanic vote.
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MG,
Thanks for posting the info. I noticed the 51-49 Female to Male finding. That seems a little short on the Female side.
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Should be more than 51% on the Female weighting, in my opinion.
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JeffG,
I agree. It appears to be not enough females, too many Hispanics and not enough blacks were counted. Perhaps there was no weighting and those were actual likely voters who responded?
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That ras pole is dated. It is all around her announcement, misses the bad economic news/stock sell off, and the stolen valor.
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Quemala rally las vegas
https://x.com/amuse/status/1822388413418627521?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Marv – that doesn’t matter to the left or Politico. Whatever was in those memos will be kept to be the October surprise and used close to the election, especially if they are damaging at all
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No entertainers? It’s Vegas come on.
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If Vegas area does not turn out for Quemala she is done in Nv.
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Trump’s Lead MUCH LARGER Than Polling Data Suggests | 2024 Election Map Trump V. Harris (Aug 2024). This is according to Gold Crown politics polling. According to them Trump holds a 5 Pt lead in most of the swing states. I never heard of this polling place &:wasn’t able to successfully copy their utube map to post.
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Tina, do you have any idea if that Los Vegas venue photo was close to the rally starting time or not, as the stadium seating had lots of empty areas.
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Numbers for Black voters are all over the map in different polls. RAS’s most recent poll had Trump getting 33% of the Black vote. The Economist/YouGov poll for Aug. 4-6 has him getting just 9% of the Black vote with a top line of +2 for Harris. The NPR poll from Aug. 1-4, on the other hand, shows Trump getting 20% of the Black vote, but with Harris leading by 3. How is Trump further behind while doubling his share of the Black vote? In that same poll, Trump gets only 48% of the white vote. All of these numbers are with all candidates.
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The problem? The rally was not Trump’s but rather was Harris’s. The post was quickly deleted. Harris’s team also posted a half-filled venue in Montana 2 hours prior to the start of the rally, after which it was packed. Lots of misleading photos, stats and info coming from the Harris/Walz team.
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I don’t know Jan. I can see them hiding the empty seats with black curtains like they did the other day.
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The NYT/Sienna polls show Trump only +1 with white people in aggregate for all three states — MI, WI and PA. CNN exit polls from 2020 showed Trump winning the white vote by 15 in PA, 11 in MI, and 6 in Wisconsin.
If these polls are correct, then Trump is losing because he’s bleeding the white vote. Especially so when the same polls show him getting 14% of the black vote and actually leading 48-46 among all other nonwhites. That computes to approximately 32.7% of all the non-white voters in those three states. According to 2020 exit polls, Trump won only 25% of all nonwhites in WI; 18% in MI; and about 15% in PA.
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JeffG,
A reasonable conclusion is that NYT/Siena published a flawed poll.
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Getting back to the Bozeman rally last night- it’s the first time I have ever heard Tim Sheehy speak, and he was outstanding – articulate, to the point without a teleprompter, along with the ability to rev up a crowd. Trump gave him lots of kudos, 2 times to speak and space to highlight his own profile. If Sheehy doesn’t get a good bounce from last night’s performance and positive crowd response I’ll be surprised.
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I’m not buying that Trump will win such a historically small portion of the white vote for a Republican candidate.
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The Harris/Walz “base” waiting at today’s Los Vegas rally.
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Harris/Walz packed out the rally in Vegas. Trump is going to cry.
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The Vegas rally has just begun right now with ‘warm up’ speakers. So I assume what was posted before was from several hours prior. Here’s live coverage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GguhtK0HlKY
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Apparently the left thinks that now because they are enthused their votes count double. The reality is the race leans Trump. He only has to move the needle a tiny bit from 2020 and he wins. And its even easier for him given the electoral math is so much more favorable under the new apportionments.
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Here you go…Fabrizio weighs in on the flawed Siena polling:
https://x.com/AureliusStoic1/status/1822341064067260923
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Jeff what shiukd the stats be?
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Paul, in that entire Youtube video of the live feed (you can go back to the beginning) they do not do one pan of the crowd. Its only set on that section that they filled early on. All the empty seats that were shown above, they will not put the camera on that sectoin, only on the seats they filled early before all the speakers who came on demanding more government freebies and abortion on demand.
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Long delay at the Vegas rally. I suppose some security issues. Or they got to sober KH up after her Vegas bender.
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After the delay, they’ve sent a school teacher out to speak. Either all is good. Or the teacher is sent out as a canary in the coal mine.
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LOL
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N/T at 11:00
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