According to Republican pollster POS. 400 LV each state, 7/23-7/29.
POStrategies for @CompCoalition (R)
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 45%
—
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟥 Trump: 45%
—
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 45%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 43%
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
75 responses to “Trump in Trouble”
First!
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Trump 2028!
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13697931/WSJ-Evan-Gershkovich-Paul-Whelan-released-prison-Russia.html
Election year prisoner swap.
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Jan would be on board for that.
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Essentially we are back to 2016. Border Czar Harris is going to take a 3-4 point lead in all national polling going forward simply because there seems to be no roof to her rising support in states like CA, NY, IL, CT, MA, and all the deep blue states. The cheering media portraying her has the second coming of Christ will have little to no answer in these states. So the impact from these states will push the national polling strongly in Harris’ favor. But Trump is spending an enormous amount of money in the battleground states that will keep these states close. And so election night will be much like 2016, when most believe Harris will win, and it will come down to whether or not Trump can get narrow wins in NC, AZ, NV, GA and one other, and avoid the fraud.
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DW – Trump hatred and abortion are pushing the surge. Trump’s best chance was against Biden. Dems play to win so Biden is out.
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Trump is pissing off enough people he really needs to overcome the margin of fraud. Lowering enthusiasm.
Switching out Joe has increased enthusiasm levels for Woke Commie Dems.
What do Independent voters want?
I was just getting hopeful for a Trump upset too…
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New national poll from American Pulse Research & Polling
July 26-29
1,035 LV
Trump 47
Harris 46
Kennedy 3
Stein 1
West 1
Oliver 0
Confirms what we have been saying about the collapse in polling numbers for the misfits, now that Biden dropped out.
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A DailyKos/Civiqs poll has Harris leading 49-45. It’s a D+5 sample with Trump leading independents 45-41.
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Wow, pretty pessimistic attitude there DW! Unlike 2016 Trump has a lot of Billionaires on his side especially in the Tech and Crypto fields. If I have time later I will show you how many millions they are spending just on their ground game. It’s probably the best ‘Get the voters to the polls’ the Republicans ever did. Not to mention X formerly known as Twitter is on our side. So, we have a least one big social media where we can get our message out. Also, unlike 2016 where Trump was facing a tough qualified intelligent opponent; now he is facing with out a doubt the dumbest Democrat presidential candidate ever! And the more people listen to Harris; the more turned off they will get. She was just in Georgia campaigning with a fake southern accent!
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Also, if Harris picks Shapiro the progressives are going to riot at the convention.
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Trump will be sent back to a retirement home in the villages.
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“Wow, pretty pessimistic attitude there DW!”
Well, Trump still has a shot, no question. And his electoral math is easier than 2016/2020. But my point is that we all expected the race to tighten when they replaced a demented incumbent…but we are still waiting for signs that the harris honeymoon phase is over. I am not seeing it yet.
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There is probably a lot of pressure from the squad and the anti-semites against Shapiro, not to mention some of them might actually believe their own hype that Shapiro is a moderate.
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Trump is pissing off enough people he really needs to overcome the margin of fraud.”
Ah, yes, the TDS moron weighs in.
Tell us what “people” Trump is “pissing off’?
This should be good.
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The Kamala ads I see during the Olympics are atrocious.
It’s all about things that anyone with a brain understands she is not going to deliver.
“People will only have to work one job to pay bills’
Only Dumbchuck would believe that.
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OK Jason, Trump will win all electoral votes. Happy? GTFOH.
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I would be happy if Trump wins all the EVs!
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Kamala is benefiting from 100% favorable MSM coverage and a huge effort to “reinvent” her from a failed, weak, ridiculous, incompetent, irrelevant VP into a juggernaut Presidential candidate.
I have a suspicion that this cannot be sustained, and there will be a reckoning after she is nominated and the convention is over. I think Kamala’s support is shallow and media driven and it will be difficult for her to shake her previous positions and record all the way to the election.
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There continues to be discontent around the edges regarding Harris being the D nominee without any direct votes from the people. Kevin,O’Leary has come out saying 20% of the billionaire investors he knows, who immediately poured bucks into her campaign, already have “buyer’s remorse.” The media for sure will not report any of this, as they simply want to crown her without further ado, with no tough interviews, press conferences, and tightly scripted rallies. Consequently, It’s going to be a difficult slog for Trump to get thru all this pre election manipulation, plus any unforeseen election fixes – I wish him well for our own sakes.
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2024 GE:
@Rasmussen_Poll
🟥 Trump: 49% [-1]
🟦 Harris: 44% [+1]
🟪 Other: 4%
—
🟥 Trump: 46% [-3]
🟦 Harris: 45% [+3]
🟨 RFK Jr: 5% [+1]
🟪 Other: 3%
[+/- change vs July 22-24]
—
2,163 LV | July 24-25 & 28-31 | ±2%
https://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_trump_49_harris_44
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The Dems don’t care if Kamala never got ONE primary vote.
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Here are 2 of the many super packs helping Trump.
Allies of Senator JD Vance of Ohio are aiming to spend $45 million on a super PAC campaign to mobilize swing-state voters in support of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign, according to a memo circulated to donors.
The super PAC, Turnout for America, is being spearheaded by Christopher Buskirk, a close friend and political ally of Mr. Vance who has been developing a donor network with help from the Ohio senator that includes some of Mr. Trump’s wealthiest backers.
In the memo from Mr. Buskirk seen by The New York Times, Turnout for America claims to have trained a network of at least 945 canvassers, “who are ready for deployment” in seven battleground states.
Mr. Buskirk’s effort is to target the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, as well as the so-called blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Even more Democratic states such as Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia “could be added as polling and trends and resources justify,” according to the memo. It boasts that the group intends to use an innovative artificial intelligence “work force optimization tool” that will “monitor all performance data systemwide in live time and distribute individualized improvement advice to each canvasser in the field via text, call and email.”
Unlike many super PACs, the group emphasizes that it will focus only on field operations and will not become involved with paid media.
Mr. Trump chose Mr. Vance as his running mate in part because he was close with some major donors from the tech industry. Some of those contributors are among those involved in a donor collective called the Rockbridge Network that Mr. Buskirk created. Its twice-a-year meetings have drawn appearances by Mr. Trump, as well as mega donors including Peter Thiel, Rebekah Mercer, Steve Wynn and David Sacks. Members pledge to spend $100,000 a year on Rockbridge-recommended programs, and the group said last year that it had about 125 members. Its most recent conference was held this year at Mar-a-Lago and featured appearances by Mr. Vance, Mr. Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr.
The group, America PAC, is preparing what appears to be a well-funded push to encourage Republican-leaning voters to cast early or absentee ballots.
The group, America PAC, was created last month and remains fairly secretive. But over the last two weeks, it has spent $6.6 million on behalf of Mr. Trump. The group has so far made payments to two conservative vendors:
About $6 million for “canvassing/field operations” to In Field Strategies, a large Republican grass-roots operation that has been paid by the Republican National Committee.
And about $650,000 to Raconteur Media, a digital marketing firm that has primarily worked for conservative clients in Texas and has been paid for printing and text messaging services.
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pacs not packs
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“The Dems don’t care if Kamala never got ONE primary vote.”
Exactly. I made this point a few days ago. Dems are people who WANT a dictator, and they have ZERO personal interest in voting. They have made the government and the Dem party their GOD, FATHER, and HUSBAND. If they got a commie dictator for life, they would be thrilled as it would save them having to fill out ballots once every few years.
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Why? He is a hard core leftist. He only pretends to be a moderate.
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DW – Trump hatred and abortion are pushing the surge.’
Zzzzzz….
Bitter’s favorite bogeymans are “Trump hatred” (because HE hates Trump) and ‘abortion” (which outside of extremists on both sides is not a major issue people vote on). Frankly, i have never met anyone, R or D, who told me abortion was a deciding factor on their vote. Maybe Bitter has met such a person among his wine sipping liberal friends and neighbors, but I haven’t.
What is pushing the surge is 100% favorable coverage by the MSM that most people watch.
The fact is Kamala is actually a WEAKER candidate than Biden on paper because she appeals to fewer demographics/groups than he does.
IF Kamala succeeds in reinventing herself I will admit I was wrong. But at the moment I think 90% of her “success” at closing the gap with Trump is media hype, not abortion or Trump hatred.
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Jason makes good points and provides solid analysis. None of that matters if he does not vote.
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Abortion does not change people’s votes. It motivates people who consider it their biggest issue to vote.
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2024 GE: @AmericanPulseUS
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 West: 1%
1,035 LV | July 26-29 | MoE: ±3.1%
https://www.americanpulse.us/thankyou-pollresults-publicopinion-post-landscape-shaping-events
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Crying more than the bereaved? The alternative is an existential threat to democracy
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“IF Kamala succeeds in reinventing herself I will admit I was wrong.”
Sounds reasonable. Thanks. I have refrained from making any conclusions around our friendly argument (where I desperately HOPE you will win!).
My claim was that Biden would be replaced, and his replacement, while at the time months ago was polling worse than Biden was, would surge in the polls once the replacement was made. It happens to be Kamala, which some argued was the worst of the replacement option. I believe had it been anyone else, Mark Warner included, the praise from the media would have resulted in the same surge.
But I am waiting now and desperately hoping that you will win this argument, and Harris will fade with time.
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Maybe where Jason lives, everybody loves Trump. They watch Channel 8 (WGAL out of Lancaster) and only see Trump ads.
If Trump wins PA by 1 vote, thank me. If Harris wins PA by 1 vote, thank Jason.
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Abortion does not change people’s votes. It motivates people who consider it their biggest issue to vote”
Don’t think so. Anyone who feels THAT strongly (either for or against) is already going to vote Dem.
Also, people forget the Dems ‘advantage” on abortion is only about 15 points, and that people who believe there should be no restrictions on abortion are concentrated in deep blue states, in swing states the advantage is narrower or non-existent.
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The alternative is an existential threat to democracy’
LOL
The troll went full blown D-Kos.
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My claim was that Biden would be replaced, and his replacement, while at the time months ago was polling worse than Biden was, would surge in the polls once the replacement was made. It happens to be Kamala, which some argued was the worst of the replacement option. I believe had it been anyone else, Mark Warner included, the praise from the media would have resulted in the same surge.”
Nah, that dog won’t hunt, sorry, you can’t reinvent yourself.
Your claim was that the Dems would replace Biden with some “dark horse” (your words), and that this person would then become viable. I said, and I was right, that there was no such dark horse, and even if there was, as soon as you gave it a name, it would no longer be “popular”.
The scenario you supported did not happen.
Biden was NOT going to be replaced by any dark horse. He self destructed at the debate and THAT was the reason he was replaced, it was an unforeseen not a planned event. Yeah, I know some people say they purposefully staged the debate so he would fail, but I don’t buy it.
And Kamala WAS the worst replacement option, that is why the Dem leadership and luminaries such as Pelosi and Obama and Carville, etc. didn’t want her. Had Biden NOT endorsed her, she would probably have lost in an open convention.
The Dems are going to try to make the best out of a bad situation. They all know Kamala is an awful candidate but that is the hand they were dealt. They will try to win with a pair of deuces, sometimes it happens.
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Trump already regrets nominating Shady Vance.
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Quemala is still trailing. Lol
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Progressives sound alarm as Shapiro VP stock rises
One letter signed by nearly 50 progressive leaders pointed to Shapiro’s “shortcomings as a national candidate” and urged the vice president to consider Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) instead.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4804417-shapiro-vice-president-progressives-harris/
I have a feeling the Democrat Convention is going to be fun to watch. Not the speakers but, everything else going on inside the convention and outside. 😂
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MG, so lets say she picks Shapiro. The anti-semites and Detroit Muslims are going to run into the arms of Trump? No. A few of them might fuss and fume for a while, but in the end they pull the lever for the Dems. Every last one of them.
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DW, what I believe could happen is the Muslims in Michigan are going to do what they said they would do when they were mad at Biden. Which is to stay home and not vote. Also, if there are protests in the streets like in 1968 Convention and the party is not united. That will turn a lot of Independents off and just might vote for Trump or also stay home.
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Either way, right now the Republican party is united and the Democrats are not. That is definitely a plus for us with only 3 months to go.
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So Muslim voters in Michigan will refuse to vote for Harris (who will not support Israel) and allow Trump (a huge supporter of Israel) to win? Got it.
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DW, I understand why you think the Muslims will vote for Harris. Because Trump is more pro Israel than Harris. Which is true. But what you don’t realize is the Muslim people have a long term strategy. They are willing to lose one election. Because after that they can say see what happens when you put a Jew on the ticket. Then the progressives and the antisemites can take over the party.
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I hope you are right MG, I really do. But forgive me for saying that this sounds a lot like “The black community is going to vote for the first time more strongly for GOP in THIS election!” I am still waiting for that first time.
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Bl, I don’t believe Shapiro would agree to be Harris VP unless she promised Shapiro that she would support Israel.
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Orange man has destroyed the entire republican party. In 2016, he was edgy and now all of that is gone. He’s a decrepit aging man hanging out with weirdo fuckwad Shady Vance. How do you vote for someone who called women with no children cat ladies. Good luck winning an election with absolute fucking idiots rethugs.
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To a Democrat, “Truth” is defined as whatever advances the cause. Sure she would agree to tell Shapiro that she supports Israel, if that mattered at all to Shapiro. So long as he delivers PA, then after the election its full blown anti-Israel.
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The Pulse poll listed above with Trump leading 47-46 is R+3. That’s not going to happen. Neither is the D+5 in the poll Harris leads 49-45. With a D+1, Harris right now probably leads by a 1-2 points.
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With TV advertising cranking up and just over three months to go, its now that time when national polling takes a back seat to the battleground state polling. Trump is not spending money in the deep blue states to help out the national polling. Its now all about electoral math. Harris leading 1 or 2 points is very likely a Trump EV win.
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DW, every poll I have seen shows Trump improving his support with the black community. I believe he got 12% in 2020. So, even if he only gets 15% that is still thousands of votes. In places like Michigan and Pennsylvania where it looks like a very close race that could make the difference.
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and its going to be critical to keep track of the numbers among independent voters in these battleground states. They will decide our fate.
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Does DailyKos pay you to post here or are you a volunteer?
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MG, I hope you are right. I just have seen too many times Charlie Brown flying through the air while Lucy holds the football
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Are you always this dim or are you trying extra hard today? Have you seen me criticize any sane non far right republican?
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I tend to think Michigan Guy is right on Michigan, hey, it happens.
Kamala will lose Muslim votes in Michigan if she picks Shapiro. The idea they will all Muslims will vote for a conservative self proclaimed Zionist who says Israel has a “moral obligation” to wipe out Hamas and put him a heartbeat from the Presidency is silly in my view. Some might be “pragmatic’ but Muslims are not known for pragmatism. On the other hand, there are Jews in Michigan who might view Shapiro as an insurance policy against an anti-semite like Kamala and vote their ideology. In any case, I think Shapiro will be a net loss for Kamala in MI and probably some other less important states.
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Have you seen me criticize any sane non far right republican?”
I have yet to see you criticize any far left Marxist Democrat, starting with Kamala.
As for Bitter’s question I don’t think Dumbchuck is smart enough to get get paid, I think he is one of the low level brainwashed volunteers.
Too bad Transparent Dem Troll retired, or we could know for sure.
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And calling Trump “far right” is hilarious.
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Have you seen me criticize any sane non far right republican?”
Ok, two points considering the source.
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Whoops….
Are you always this dim or are you trying extra hard today?’
Two points considering the source.
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I won’t criticize Kamala because even though she’s further to the left than i’d like, she is WAAAYYYYY better than the orange moron and his baby fat fuckface.
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Shapiro still dropping.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8089/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination
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I won’t criticize Kamala”
You could have stopped there.
You really did come from the low end of the troll gene pool.
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I wish Skippy was here to made a prediction so we could at least eliminate somebody.
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MG, I think Trump lost some Black votes yesterday at the NABJ interview. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his Black vote numbers drop significantly in the days ahead. I hope I am wrong.
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Kelly gaining. He is married to gun grabbing Gabby Giffords. Maybe it would galvanize the 65 million gun owners in America to vote for Trump.
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-vp-nominee?tid=1722529674649
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I don’t see any of Trump’s comments as anti-black, and he made some good points on how he helped the black community with his policies.
And the Asian-Indian community is probably not going to be happy with Kamala trying to pretend she has not always campaigned as Indian if some of the social media comments are true.
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Looking more at PA, there have been more polls (11) than any other state in the last 11 days of July (the 11 days since Biden dropped out).
Looking at the samples of these 11 polls, FoxNews had the largest sample at 1,034, but it was Registered voters, showing a lead for Harris +2.
The next several with the largest samples have it:
Redfield and Wilton at 851 Likely voters, and a Trump lead of 4 points.
Emerson at 850 Registered voters, and a Trump lead of 2 points.
Morning Consult at 804 Registered voters, and a Trump lead of 2 points.
Southern Cal Research at 800 Likely voters and a Trump lead of 6 points.
The Bullfinch Group at 800 Registered voters and a tie.
The polls with samples of around 600 or less vary greatly from Trump +2 to Harris +4.
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Wow, yesterday I said the Israelis had remarkable intelligence and aim to be able to target the exact room Haniyeh was staying.
It was actually better than that.
Haniyeh had been staying at a “heavily guarded complex” in Tehran, according to the New York Times — an official state guesthouse “run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.” Nevertheless, Israel was able to
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Jason – they actually planted the bomb months ago and when the time was right…boom
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Trump didn’t make any racist comment. He said Kamala was reinventing herself as black after claiming she was Indian, absolutely true. Her mother is Indian, her father Jamaican, but not all Jamaicans are black, in fact many are mixed race or even white, blacks are about 75% of the population. In fact Trump said, either way, I respect it.
But of course JeffP will always take the TDS view.
Sad.
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He isn’t losing votes because of some obscure conference. LOL. He’s losing votes because he’s a horrible human being
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NT
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McCormick definitely winning the ad war against Casey, at least around here.
He skewers Casey on spending and inflation.
Casey has one ad, of an airplane he claims McCormick uses to fly to New Jersey where he “lived for 15 years”. It begs the question if he “lived” there before, why he flying there now? Lame.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/breaking-attorneys-general-virginia-missouri-wyoming-secretary-state/
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