Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:42.0 / 55.1-13.0
Pollsters right in 2024:46.2 / 51.0-4.8

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +3216219

2026 Senate Forecast

TXMEOHMIGANHNCMN
Gap+4.5+2.0+1.4+1.4+1.4+3.6+6.2
Count5051525347464544

Trump up 1 in NH, 5 in GA, Harris up 11 in NY

A wild eight days in American politics. Trump was shot, 1/3 of Democrats denied it happened even though there is ample video proof. Then Biden dropped out after assuring everyone he was fit for the job. Biden has destroyed everything he has ever touched and now has messed up even the HHR Polling Aggregator. So I will need to beg your patience as I figure out how to move forward and convert it over to a Trump vs. Harris race.

NEW HAMPSHIRE Praecones Analytica for NewHampJournal
Trump40
Harris39
Kennedy21
July 19-21; 601 V
GEORGIA – U of GA
Trump51
Harris46
July 9-18; 1,000 LV
NEW YORKSoCal Research
Trump41
Harris52
July 18, 500 LV

35 responses to “Trump up 1 in NH, 5 in GA, Harris up 11 in NY”

  1. The GA and NH polls are instructive, but both were taken before Joe dropped out.

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  2. Latest thing is does the Biden’s signature letter match his signature on other documents?

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  3. My plan is to record the final averages of Trump vs. Biden on each state page, and then start fresh with Trump vs. Harris. However, the averages will at first still include the most recent Trump vs Biden numbers.

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  4. See the New Hampshire page of polls for the format going forward if you are interested. Suggestions are welcome.

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  5. DW, the plan sounds good to me. I hope you don’t feel the Trump v. Biden work you did was for nothing. It wasn’t, in my book; it was useful and informative to me. Thanks for it.

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    Liked by 1 person

  6. UNSOLICITED ADVICE:

    –Trump campaign needs to pivot to running against the BIDEN-HARRIS administration,

    –hammer on the new issue of who has been behind the scenes pulling the strings actually running the government and setting policy for the federal government,

    –hammer on “Joe needs to resign the presidency due to he fragility of mind and body.

    –in the debates or whatever, Trump needs to be clear (certainly an huge uphill battle for Trump maybe not as much for Vance) that a THE SUPREME COURT DID NOT OUTLAW ABORTION.

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  7. DW – I have full faith in you. Really and not in the way that NHL teams say they have full faith in the coach 2 days before firing him.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Walt, I was thinking that Trump should focus for the moment on his plans for the future (which includes a contrast to Biden/Harris). If Harris becomes the nominee, then go after her.

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  9. NEWS TALK SHOWS OBSEERVATIONS:

    The local talk show had one of the WV people who is a delegate to the Dem CONvention and here is what he over and over again emphasized these TOP 5 THINGS:

    –TRUMP is now the oldest presidential candidate in history

    –Kamala represents the new generation

    –you have to vote for Kamala because Trump is evil, tried to overthrow democracy on Jan. 6, a convicted felon, rapist, etc.

    –ABORTION

    –Kamala was a hard-nosed law and order prosecutor.

    NOT A WORD ABOUT “ALL THE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF BIDEN-HARRIS ADMIN IN ANY ISSUE” or a defense for any of the myriads of failures.

    ****************************************************

    THIS IS WHAT YOU WILL SEE FOR THE NEXT 107 DAYS

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  10. Munchkin won’t challenge Kampala.

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  11. Some of the 10 Biden/Dem talking point charts on Facebook that Trump campaign needs to blunt:

    –Biden strengthened our alliances overseas (specifically making more NATO countries pay their 2% fair share of costs)

    –creating 12 million jobs, historic, better than any president ever

    –Brining down inflation

    –Infrastructure bill/act spending billions to improve highways

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  12. Walt, it might have been nice if someone asked that guy what the “law and order” started a fund to post bail for violent protesters.

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    Liked by 1 person

  13. Walt – I also hope that Trump debates Harris and stays focused on the accomplishments of his administration vs. the failures of Biden-Harris. But he won’t.

    In regard to the felony convictions, he has to find a way to state:

    1. The case is on appeal.

    2. The heinous crime was not correctly characterizing a payment.

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  14. lol, they will try to claim that Kampala is a new candidate and was never veep aka a partner.

    good luck.

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  15. Reports: Secret Service Skipped Security Briefing, Wasn’t Even Planning To Send Snipers To Trump Rally

    Local law enforcement also allegedly informed Johnson’s team that communications between law enforcement and Secret Service assigned to the rally “were siloed,” with local sniper and SWAT teams operating “on separate radio channels from patrol.”

    http://thefederalist.com/2024/07/22/reports-secret-service-skipped-security-briefing-wasnt-even-planning-to-send-snipers-to-trump-rally/

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  16. Law and order Kamala….

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  17. Kampala when did you notice dementeds decline, why did you lie about it?

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  18. The MSM has instantly started “what a patriot Joe Biden is” campaign, for putting his country before himself. It makes me queasy just listening to how many are disingenuously rehabilitating his image, while lifting Harris off the floor trying to give her some kind of presidential gravitas. Supposedly $50 million has already been raised, from “small donors,” for Harris, along with celebrities chiming in how wonderful it is to have Kamala now leading the ticket. It’s all such an amazing bluff, full of hubris, but one that has enough clout to be worrisome.

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  19. Who signed Dementeds letter?

    it is not on official stationary.

    Is he on camera?

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  20. Thanks everyone. The format on the States pages will allow for easy comparison, the final averages for Biden, compared to the current averages of Kamala.

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  21. I still see Trump having the advantage in November, unless he does some unforced errors that boosts Kamala/??? ticket.

    But I am nervous as a cat on a hot tin roof about Trump’s ability to be sensible and sane and not commit unforced errors since he is not disciplined.

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  22. Walt, why do you care? You already said you’re not voting for Trump?

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  23. Just moving Kamala up a notch makes a lot of sense for the Dem. prospective.

    –overcomes the legal issues over the tens of millions already donated to Biden/Harris

    –turns on the spigot from donors that demanded Joe step aside

    –Black caucus immediately getting on board

    –helps the 40 some Dem members of the House of Rep.

    –she probably keeps the Biden campaign infrastructure in place in various key states, but will probably not have the top Biden people around to help since some of them re hard core Biden and will resign from their campaign slots. But maybe not, since they are all united i hared of Trump and desire to stop his return to white house.

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  24. Who do HHR posters think is kamala’s BEST choice for her VP running mate?

    Newsom is out being from CA. Witmer says no.

    So…

    –the gov. from PA?

    –the gov from NC?

    –Barack Obama?

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  25. “Walt, why do you care? You already said you’re not voting for Trump?

    –WV is solidly in the bag for Trump

    –I detest the Biden disaster brought forth on the country and world

    –I am adamantly opposed to any Dem being elected president, because they are all way to far left in government philosophy than I am

    I believe any R administration is superior to and D administration.

    I do not like Trump, and think he has many person flaws and also failures as president. But the Trump admin. did do many things of which I approved.

    So a Trump administration would be better than any D presidential admin.

    I far prefer Trump win in 2024.

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  26. I will stay with my prediction of Gov. Shapiro. I know all the arguments about him being unacceptable to segments of the Dems because he is Jewish. Good. Let them be blatant in their anti-Semitic hatred.

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  27. Kamala VP pick?

    If they can get him to agree, I think Gov. Roy Cooper from NC.

    what about Sen. Kaine from VA? (but that complicates Kaine’s current Senate run where he is cruising over Cow…err Cao.)

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  28. The Dems need help in PA, Upper Mid West,

    But they COULD choose someone from NC/GA and possibly put those in play.

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  29. Michigan Guy,

    Another reason why I care about who gets elected in 107 days is that I am 77 years old.

    Another D win for Presidency in 2024 could easily be my suffering for my last 4 years on earth. And if they win in 2024, they would be in good position to win in 2028 IMO as the Trump-mania which has somewhat unified opposition to Ds would have fizzled out by 2028.

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  30. Walt, Harris needs to sweep PA, MI and WI. She also needs to win NV, AZ or NE-2.

    So, Harris can’t pick someone who loses her one of these vital states. Shapiro might lose her MI. I’d pick Mark Kelly if he could make the difference in AZ, because I don’t think he’d cost her a state.

    Otherwise, I’d go with the NC or KY governor.

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  31. The Russian hoaxer will support Kampala.

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  32. Who would have thought this? /s

    Secret Service Director Admits ‘Significant Operational Failure’ in Trump Assassination Attempt

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  33. Where is Joe? Is he missing? Did the obumbler take him paddle boarding on the lake? Did vp Cheney take him out hunting?

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  34. Will Steakin

    @wsteaks

    Major Biden donor John Morgan tells @ABC News he won’t fundraise for Harris if she’s the nominee “If Trump World could pick anybody to run against, I think they pick her.”

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