New polls in WI and MI:
 | WISCONSIN – Trafalgar Group |
| Trump | 46 |
| Biden | 43 |
| Kennedy | 3 |
| Stein | 1 |
| West | 0 |
 | MICHIGAN – Trafalgar Group |
| Trump | 45 |
| Biden | 43 |
| Kennedy | 4 |
| Stein | 1 |
| West | 1 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
38 responses to “Trafalgar Group is back after long vacation”
These numbers will change pos Rnc convention. I sucked. Isn’t Biden a nic grandpa? He should say in and rump should drop out.
-free passer
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My wine chick friends say Biden will, be up 5 post Rnc.
-free passsr
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Rather than start a new thread, will just post these here:
MICHIGAN GE:
@ppppolls
for @CleanProsperous (Dem)
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Biden: 46%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟦 Biden: 44%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 3%
—
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟩 Stein: 2%
—
🟦 Whitmer: 46%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Senate
🟦 Elissa Slotkin: 46%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 38%
⬜ Undecided: 17%
——
🟥 Trump/Vance ticket: 46%
🟦 Harris/Whitmer ticket: 46%
🟪 Another ticket: 3%
—
🟥 Trump/Vance ticket: 47%
🟦 Harris/Shapiro ticket: 42%
🟪 Another ticket: 6%
— 206 (1.4/3.0) | D35/R29 | 7/17-18 | 624 RV
PENNSYLVANIA GE: @ppppolls
for
@CleanProsperous
(Dem)
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Biden: 44%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟩 Stein: 2%
—
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟩 Stein: 2%
—
🟦 Shapiro: 47%
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Senate
🟦 Bob Casey (inc): 50%
🟥 Dave McCormick: 39%
⬜ Undecided: 11%
——
🟦 Harris/Shapiro ticket: 47%
🟥 Trump/Vance ticket: 46%
🟪 Another ticket: 4%
—
🟥 Trump/Vance ticket: 47%
🟦 Harris/Whitmer ticket: 42%
🟪 Another ticket: 4% 206 (1.4/3.0) | D44/R39 | 7/17-18 | 650 RV
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Zzzzzzzz. Tina is just an angry retired Federal employee who has arguments with imaginary people she creates in her head.
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No I am laughing my arse off.
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Tina also wants Biden to stay in. She is at war with herself.
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Time magazine capitulated to the pressure to not help the Trump campaign and spiked the iconic picture cover to their magazine. Now they will display a picture of the empty grandstand after it was over. If I had a subscription, I would cancel it.
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Imagine Sports Illustrated in 1980 electing to cancel the iconic picture of the celebrating US Hockey players who had just defeated the USSR, and replacing it with a picture of the empty stadium after it was over.
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If you had a subscription we would think you are a dentist.
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Good morning everyone.
Is Trump still speaking? Or has he finished?
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Here is another one I will post here instead of starting a new thread. Trump within 18 points in MA:
Massachusetts GE: Suffolk U.
🟦 Biden: 47% [-5]
🟥 Trump: 29% [+7]
🟨 RFK Jr: 8% []
🟪 Other: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 11%
[+/- change vs April]
Boston Globe | July 16-18 | 500 LV
https://suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2024/7_19_2024_embargoed_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=E4C9942D8222A553302B821C8394871DB95B6871
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Trumps speech was riveting in his recollection of the assassination.
There was something different about him last night. Maybe still in shock to some degree…melancholy for sure.
But after that he was not speaking to the American people as a former successful President who wants another term should…not even close.
I really thought he would it could be his best speech yet…it turned into a low key rally meandering stories.
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I guess that to Tina I am a “free passer” because I am not a Trumper.
I detest the Dems in power.
Detest Biden and all the myriads of failures he has brought upon the nation and world.
I favor conservative, Republican policies.
I favor about everything in the Republican Party platform.
I vote R 90+% of the time in all ballot races, have never voted (nor supported) for a D for president or governor in my lifetime.
All the campaign donations I have given in my lifetime have been to Republicans–except for in 1978 (56 years ago) giving a $25 campaign donation to a fellow social studies teacher who taught in room next to mine, fellow strong Presbyterian, and good and decent person who was running in a D primary for state legislature. She lost the primary.
*************************************************
But I still think Trump is an idiot, not the best R candidate possible for 2024, far from being the most articulate, has a lot of negative baggage (much self-inflicted).
I had two chances to vote for him in 2016, two chance in 2020 and two chance in 2024. Trump will be 0 for 6 in November with my vote. I will not vote for him in 2024, but I will never vote for Biden or whatever Democrat either.
In WV, not getting my vote will not matter, as Trump will win WV 70%-30% (or better) and has WV’s ECVs in the bag. Just like Tina’s vote for Trump will not move the needle at all in heavy D Californicatia
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jason lives
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My issues with Trump other than the direction he will take the GOP on social issues is how he handled Covid and rioting in summer of 2020. He had been President for three years and had a good run in-spite of tremendous opposition.
But in the end he was in over his head.
I had that same thought last night after that dud speech.
It cracks me up when Trumps most ardent fans who think he is going to stick it to the establishment and he didn’t in his first term can’t handle objective criticism of him now,
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I am 100% MAGA but the speech was a missed opportunity. The man simply cannot help himself. First part was awesome but he got into the election theft issue and the over-the-top bragging simply reinforced the Trump-disgust among the few people who are undecided. Missed opportunity to use ONE SPEECH to show the undecideds a kinder, gentler fatherly statesman.
Speech will make his base happy enough, and just make his haters hate more.
So we move on.
I see Jason hasnt been here is a while and I guess his absence is permanent, dont know. But it appears that Bitterlaw has made Tina his straight man now as it seems that both he and she are more focused on attacking each other using veiled smokescreens of appearing to discuss Trump in one way or another.
Anyway, like Trump, folks as HHR seem to prefer to show everyone their warts and all, in addition to their posts, which could be informative and interesting but too often become boring and repetitive. boring and repetitive. boring and repetitive. boring and repetitive. boring and repetitive.
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Hope for Biden:
Bidens campaign chair has pushed back during an interview, saying that he is not dropping out: https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/07/19/biden-campaign-chair-absolutely-staying-in-race-n3791999
Of course that’s what you expect him to say right up to the moment Biden drops out.
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My first Presidential vote was for Ronald Reagan. A couple months later … after being parentless due to the recent death of my Mom dying at 54, suicidal, a three time college drop out by then, and drug addict at 20 years old …my Grandmother invited me to her baptist church and my life was transformed.
It wasn’t long and I began to understand abortion. I vowed I would never vote for a pro choice candidate.
I became politically involved and by 1984 was a GOP delegate.
With Trump taking the Bill Clinton nineties pro choice stand now… I am struggling. JD Vance scrubbed his website of his pro life position the day he became A VP candidate. So my conscience might have sit this one out.
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I rarely actually click and read the articles posted on DRUDGE anymore since it went “left” (unless the articles are about deer, monkeys or UFOs) but here are their headlines on the speech. I guess Trump will now say “mine is longer” than anybody else.
DRUDGE
MELLOW DON MARATHON…
93 MINUTES…
LONGEST CONVENTION SPEECH IN HISTORY…
********************
ODD THAT THAT DID NOT HAVE A HEADLINE FOCUSING ON HOW MESMERIZINGLY GREAT THE SPEECH WAS AND ITS GRIPPING AND CAPTIVATING CONTENT.
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JeffP,
You have a compelling personal story or rising to overcome adversity.
Good for you. You are to be commended.
Like you, I struggle with Trump…
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My daughter is pregnant with my first grandchild and at 14 weeks she has a little baby bump. Trump has repeatedly said he would be fine with abortion up to 16 weeks nationally. It’s beyond my comprehension.
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The speech was too long. That said, it won’t matter.
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I am not a conspiracy nut by any means, but I think it is odd that there have been no press conferences by authorities to address:
–how Crooks got on the roof
–how he was able to get the gun in and use it
–how many shots he got off before SS sniper returned fire to take him out, (I hear it was 8 shots?)
–how many shell casings were on the dead shooter roof
–maps showing trajectory of the shots and what/who they hit
–dispelling the notion that shots came also from the water tower
–why the media uses a high school photo that did not accurately show what the shooter looked like on that fateful day.
I have read some articles and then clicked and read the comments and LOTS OF PEOPLE are positing some pretty bizarre things about it all–second shooter on the water tower who also was shot by SS sniper, saying that their research shows Crooks was for a time a student at Stanford where they do mind control experiments, how it was all an inside job, etc. (LOTS of people commenting, and their comments show a huge hatred to everything about government). Sad.
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I agree with the observation Trump’s convention speech turned out to be a “missed opportunity.” I’m not sure what I really expected from him, but the return to paraphrasing rally talking points was definitely a disappointment. However, I doubt not hitting it out of the ballpark will hurt him going forward. People critical of and/or intensely disliking Trump would have given a negative critique no matter how good or bad it was. And, most Trump supporters would have found ways to praise at least portions of it.
Overall, I think the Republican convention was a success in generating a unified environment around the party, especially in lieu of contrasting it to the disarray the Dems find themselves in. Most of the speeches from ordinary people had themes addressing the grievances so many of us have had towards progressive dem policies. The raucous music and determination to win also lent a “spine” to what is usually a more conventional mood around Republican events.
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TRUMP SURGING IN MASSACHUSETTS!
lol
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Did it to Jason. Have to be consistent.
Jeff P. – If you sit it out, Biden or his replacement appreciate your support.
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My favorite speaker, among many memorable ones, was Tucker Carlson. Without notes or a teleprompter guiding his words, he extemporaneously delivered a “truth to power” type of speech, defining the qualities of a real leader versus one merely acquiring the title of “president.”
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That is actually a step back from his Planned Parenthood days.
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I stopped watching Carlson when he said God was directing events and saved Trump. If I actually believed that, I would have to accept that God deemed Trump more worthy than the firefighter or my niece or every child who dies.
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Finally, I have no problem with attributing a positive outcome – one having few chances to turn out positively – as being an act of Devine intervention. Most people have lost friends and loved ones too soon to suicide, drug overdoses, car accidents, terminal illnesses and so on. However, losing complete faith in God, higher powers, becoming too cynical to belief in the hand of God helping mortals from time to time, is truly a lonely space to inhabit.
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Tell Corey Comperatore’s wife, children and fellow firefighters that God was only interested in saving Trump.
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“Helping mortals from time to time” as long as they are Trump.
Fixed it for Jan.
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Bitter, the dark cloud following you around is of your own making.
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The dark cloud following me around is knowing I failed by niece. But maybe I should listen to Jan and just accept that God decided my niece was not worth saving but Trump was.
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I have delivered 5 eulogies in my life – mom, father-in-law, aunt, niece and dad. My niece’s funeral is on YouTube if you want to see it.
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Bitter, is there an hierarchy for”saving” I don’t know about? If there is one it’s part of a celestial hidden agenda. In the meantime on hospital floors I’ve heard people crying to be taken at the same time as others pleading to be saved. My own dad could never afford a honeymoon. He and my Mom finally went on one shortly after I became an adult and died on board the ship they were on. Why did that happen? My best friend’s daughter, who I was close to since birth, died of an overdose at 22. I was and still am devastated. And, yet I’m still very aware of and grateful for little miracles – like when I was on a busy freeway when a truck tire rolled out right in front of my mini Cooper. I was able to swerve into the next lane which miraculously had no car there, as was my husband following me in his car. We didn’t talk to each other until we reached a rest stop miles away, at which time we both got out, shaken, and hugged each other for not being hurt and still alive. I too have given unrecorded but heartfelt eulogies for a number of people who I wish were still here. However, I would never conflate Trump surviving a kill shot as being more worthy of saving than my loved ones, as we don’t know the reasons for why Devine intervention happens.
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My state is solid red. Won’t matter. Still evaluating his position and the campaign position going forward and I evaluate see how Trumps position impacts Federal Court appointments. My son in law will have a good handle on that.
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https://flic.kr/p/2q5cuN3
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