The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

3 responses to “New Day. New thread until DW harvests some polls.”

1. 

   DW

   July 17, 2024 at 8:57 am

   First!

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2. 

   DW

   July 17, 2024 at 9:07 am

   I am not afraid to acknowledge it when I am wrong. I admit now that I was a bit too carried away by the emotion of watching a former president and hopefully a future president nearly get assassinated. I waited over 24 hours to say anything so that my predictions of outcomes wouldn’t be so far off.

   On Monday morning, 48 hours ago, I posted the predictions below, and I can already see how far off I was:

   “Here are my observations and predictions.

   The picture of Trump, bloodied, head raised high with fist in the air with the secret service agents ducking below him and the American flag overhead is absolutely iconic. That is the photo of the year, and the photo that will define the rest of this race.”

   This photo is still good and it is iconic Trump, but half of the country doesn’t care.

   “Trump personal favorability numbers have been pretty stagnant at net -10. That number will quickly close to zero, and then go into the positive, probably up to +5 or so. I don’t think it can go any higher.”

   I was totally wrong. Trump favorability might go down even further because for many Americans, he had the audacity to turn his head and not fill up a grave.

   “The national horserace numbers will give Trump a temporary boost from the +5 he is getting now to probably +8 or +9, but again, in this polarized nation, its not possible to go any further. 40% of the electorate would vote for Satan himself so long as he had a D after his name.”

   I have seen enough of post-shooting polling numbers and there is absolutely NO change. Biden’s debate debacle had a much larger short-term impact on the numbers.

   Given the short timespan between the failed assassination attempt and the GOP convention, the viewership for Trump’s speech will be HUGE.

   Wrong again, as half the nation is angry he’s even giving this speech at all.

   Watch for a bump in support for Trump among the black community, particularly black men in the urban areas. They have a candidate now who understands what its like to be shot.

   Still waiting for data on this one, but I am not sure at all this will turn out either.

   The boost for Trump from the failed assassination will gradually wane as we get closer to election day, but his lead of +2 to +5 was already baked in and is not likely to go away.

   There was no gradual to it, and there was no boost at all.

   The failed assassination got Biden’s mental incapacity off the headlines, which ironically saves his candidacy from replacement candidate.

   I was right about this, but this prediction was the easiest and most obvious.

   The NY scam trial that is awaiting sentencing is now dead. There is no way the judge throws Trump in jail after this.

   I think I will be wrong here too. The shooting of Trump failed, so now the left will look to the judge to throw Trump in jail, and he might just do it.

   Those are my thoughts. I could be right or wrong.

   I was wrong.

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3. 

   DW

   July 17, 2024 at 9:25 am

   NT

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