According to new poll by Public Policy Polling (D):
 | MARYLAND – PPP |
| Trump | 30 |
| Biden | 56 |
| Undecided | 14 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Hogan | 40 |
| Alsobrooks | 48 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Hogan | 34 |
| Alsobrooks | 45 |
| Scott | 3 |
| Osuchukwu | 1 |
| Wallace | 1 |
| Undecided | 16 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
28 responses to “Democrats sweep Maryland Races”
jason Slava Ukraini!June 24, 2024 at 8:37 am
Lee Zeldin out with some good Dem bait, ma…
“President Trump can win New York. It won’t be easy, but it’s possible. He can definitely win New Jersey, Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire and other states that don’t get as much attention as the most frequently targeted swing states.”
I agree with Zeldin. NY is a stretch. But in addition to the others, I would add Delaware.
LikeLike
Bitterlaw
June 24, 2024 at 8:50 am
There is only one active Founding A-hole. I have no peers. 5 points. GFY.”
See Vic, you never know.
LikeLike
Van Jones might be a raving Marxist, but he understands the problem of why Dems are losing blacks…
“They’re just tired of being lectured, tired of being wrong, tired of being criticized, tired of being called toxic; tired of, frankly, a lot of other groups getting more out of the Biden administration than black folks got,” added Jones.
Of course he always frames it as a “how much we get” issue.
LikeLike
Here is a new poll that makes absolutely no sense. From the UK polling firm Redfield and Wilton.
They find Biden’s job approval at 41/43.
But then their national matchup is Trump 41, Biden 41.
Sorry, but if Biden’s job approval is only underwater by 2 points, he wins the election going away.
LikeLike
By the same token, if the two are tied there is no way Biden’s job approval is anything close to -2. Trash poll. Throw it out. — Phil
LikeLike
As to the Maryland Poll, Hogan down 8 in a PPP poll indicates he is still in the game. He is behind, but its not yet lights out, will be interesting to see another poll from another pollster.
LikeLike
Are there any more Russian videos of Biden “freezing up?”
LikeLike
Where is Skippy?
I would like him to make a VP prediction so we can at rule one person out.
LikeLike
They find Biden’s job approval at 41/43.”
So 16% have no opinion?
Zzzzz…
LikeLike
There is only one active Founding A-hole.”
Looks like “active founding A-holes” are a dying breed, huh?
Oh well.
LikeLike
Hey Tina, did you give RINO Trump a free pass for his proposal to “automatically grant a green card to EVERY foreign student graduate including community college”?
A friend wants to know.
LikeLike
Back to Zeldin’s comment. Here are the polling averages for the states he mentioned:
New Jersey, Biden +5 (one poll)
Virginia, Biden +0.9 (four polls)
Minnesota, Trump +0.2 (three polls)
New Mexico, Biden +7 (two polls)
New Hampshire, Biden +3.2 (five polls)
LikeLike
“Biden’s debate prep involves standing for an extended period of time”
LOL
Candidates use to “prep” on the issues…
LikeLike
Here is a new poll that makes absolutely no sense. From the UK polling firm Redfield and Wilton.”
Maybe it is run by Amoral Scumbag’s favorite polling source… Lord Asshat.
LikeLike
Why does Biden need to bother preparing?
a) The CNN moderators will do all the heavy debating against Trump
b) Biden has already been declared the debate winner, and the articles are already written.
c) Biden will be home in bed, while his stunt double is on the stage.
LikeLike
I won’t be watching the debate, I have to clean some guns and you don’t want to be distracted when you do that.
I suggest Bitter live blog it.
LikeLike
The Biden campaign might have shot itself in the foot.
By making it impossible for Trump to talk over Biden, which made him look bad in 2020, Biden will be allowed to answer the questions and maybe screw up.
LikeLike
Why does Biden need to bother preparing?”
There is always the chance the stunt double might get sick or something and Biden would have to fill in.
LikeLike
Jason, I’m no Skippy, but feel free to discard this; I think it’s going to be Youngkin.
Assuming that the top 3 are actually Burgum, Rubio, and Vance, it makes sense that Glenn is the dark horse waiting to be called out of the stable. Vance brings nothing that Trump doesn’t already have (Ohio is in the bag). Rubio is a possibility; he’s matured a lot since 2016, and the FL “problem” really isn’t an issue if they win anyhow since either can move to another state or DC. But unless Trump decides that he’s going all-in on Hispanics and thus wants a running mate who can go deep into Blue territory to campaign en Espanol, Rubio similarly brings nothing else. Don’t get me wrong; I like him, but his selection also opens up his seat to an unpredictable special election (and gives Gaetz another option if he is frozen out of the Governor’s race).
Burgum is a solid executive type, for sure, and I can see him in the cabinet. For VP, his main asset is money. Pre-“conviction,” that might have been more important, but Trump is swimming in cash now, and I don’t think it’s as big an asset as it once was. Besides, HRC outspent DJT 3:1 and still lost. And silly as it seems, Dems would belittle the ticket as “Don-Don.” It would be stupid, but Trump would get annoyed at stuff like that.
Glenn Youngkin potentially brings VA. Veeps usually don’t bring much in the form of a state or region these days, hence the “potentially.” However, if VA is truly close (and four or five polls in a row say the state is tied or within the MOE), then Youngkin’s positive effect on the margins makes all the difference. HRC was going to win VA in ‘16, so Kaine did little to nothing in that respect. If Trump ekes out a win by, say, 20k-30k, it’s quite likely that Youngkin sealed the deal for him. And if he does win VA, it’s lights out for Joe; no way he can recover from that. Biden could win the rust belt/Blue Wall states by ten points, but VA gives Trump a baseline of 264 if AZ slips away for some reason, meaning he only needs NV. But I also don’t think AZ will slip away, so the minimum Trump wins by in that scenario is 275-263 (allowing for Trump to come up short in NV).
LikeLike
GF, I also have a hunch its going to be Youngkin. Trump is going to be in Chesapeake, VA on Friday, right after the debate. Trump has said that his veep will be at the debate. Trump recently met with Youngkin.
LikeLike
Democrats would be in total meltdown if Trump suddenly announced it was Youngkin. They’d crap their pants. Total panic time. Sadly, Trump probably doesn’t pick Youngkin even though it would seal the election for him. He’s going to try and win the hard way. Republicans always do the opposite of what they need to do in elections. — Phil
LikeLike
I keep stressing how critical Virginia really is.
Polls close at 7:00 pm.
By 8:45 p.m. or so, roughly 85% of the vote will have been counted. 8:45 p.m. EDT is EARLY election night. Its 5:45 p.m. Pacific time. Let that sink in. The numbers in Virginia could look like this at 8:45 p.m.:
Trump 50.2%
Biden 46.7%
Kennedy/Others 3.1%
with 85% precincts reporting, with all that’s left in the remaining 15% is a scattered collection of rural Trump areas, a chunk from Virginia Beach (a wash), and a little left in Northern Virginia (strong Biden), such that the data wizards cannot see where Biden can get the votes to catch up. This would send shock waves across the nation as people out west in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado are still driving home from work deciding whether or not to go vote.
Check the box for Trump in Virginia before 9:00 pm EDT, and its game, set, and match.
LikeLike
Phil, I get your pessimism, I really do, but so far, Trump has been remarkably disciplined, compared to both 2020 and 2016.
LikeLike
GF
June 24, 2024 at 11:12 am
Jason, I’m no Skippy, but feel free to discard this; I think it’s going to be Youngkin.”
Since I want it to be Youngkin, I am relieved you are not Skippy, that would be the kiss of death.
Youngkin would be a really SMART pick that makes a lot of sense.
Unfortunately, those are reasons that Trump won’t pick him.
But hope springs eternal.
LikeLike
By the way, GF, great analysis.
Vance would indeed bring nothing to the table, and if Trump picks him, Phil is right, he wants to win the hard way. He would pick Vance as a yes man, period.
Of course I like Rubio. He was my first choice in 2016. But the Hispanic vote is already swinging towards Rs and Trump will win FL anyway. Rubio might help marginally in NM and CO, but I don’t really believe these states are in play (sorry, DW). Even though he is young, I have an “expired goods” feeling about him now, I think his appeal has peaked. A solid pick nonetheless, especially as it means we won’t have to deal with an idiot like Vance.
Then there is the guy I originally wanted, Scott. Another solid pick, might help with the AA vote and would probably wipe the floor with Kamala in a debate. But for the reasons outlined above, Youngkin brings more to the table.
As for Burgum, GF’s analysis above is spot on. Cabinet, not VP.
None of the other names being touted Sanders, VIvek, Stefanik, etc. excite me.
LikeLike
Phil, I get your pessimism, I really do, but so far, Trump has been remarkably disciplined, compared to both 2020 and 2016.”
I don’t really agree.
He had a great chance to be gracious with Bob Good, decided to be an a-hole.
He is still busy burning bridges he needs to get elected.
LikeLike
NT
LikeLike
💡
LikeLike