The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:42.0 / 55.1-13.0
Pollsters right in 2024:46.2 / 51.0-4.8

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +3216219

2026 Senate Forecast

TXMEOHMIGANHNCMN
Gap+4.5+2.0+1.4+1.4+1.4+3.6+6.2
Count5051525347464544

Hopefully shocking no one, UTAH not in play

Bitterlaw

According to Deseret News, University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics/HarrisX

UTAH – HarrisX
Trump57
Biden25
Three Candidates:
Trump49
Biden20
Kennedy20
June 4-7; 857 RV

20 responses to “Hopefully shocking no one, UTAH not in play”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Start commenting you lazy bastards.

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    I don’t normally get too interested in the generic congressional ballot poll tracking. But it caught my eye this morning when Monmouth reported their poll shows GOP 48, DEM 45. This did impact the RCP line chart substantially:

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote

    Like

  3. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    SCOTUS unanimously allows mailed abortion drug on standing issue. Dems hardest hit.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    new national poll

    2024 GE: Reuters/Ipsos

    🟥 Trump: 41% [+2]
    🟦 Biden: 39% [-2]
    🟨 RFK Jr: 10%

    Net 4 point swing towards Trump

    [+/- change vs June 1]
    —
    538: #17 (2.8/3.0) | 903 RV | 6/10-11

    Like

  5. GF Avatar
    GF

    DW, so their prior poll was immediately post-conviction, and saw a fairly predictable (though small) Biden bump. Now that the country has had a couple of weeks to digest it all, few people were actually moved by it, and probably the few who were moved to Trump.

    So, back to our regularly scheduled programming…

    Like

  6. VictrC Avatar
    VictrC

    Very interesting, I have to agree GF

    Like

  7. DW Avatar
    DW

    and I am not sure if there was any conviction Bump for Biden at all…other polls showed nothing but statistical noise, or even a slight improvement for Trump. Essentially, no change in the direction of the race.

    Like

  8. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    These are the lawyahs handling the trump hoax cases.

    https://x.com/PhilHollowayEsq/status/1801225788554956941?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt. Sabato updated his crystal ball, which obviously has never by close to crystal clear, but he has MI as LEAN BIDEN, even though Trump was ahead in 20 polls of this state surveyed in 2024, and Biden has lead only 7 polls. And Biden has never led by more than 3, and Trump has THREE times led MI by six, in polls taken by different media pollsters. But Sabato cannot even show this state a TOSSUP.

    Meanwhile, out west, he has BOTH Arizona and Nevada as tossups, even though Biden has NEVER led a single poll of Nevada, and there was only 1 poll of Arizona, by a Dem polling firm that gave him a 1 point lead. Some of the Trump leads in both states have been HUGE.

    And Sabato continues to have ME, MN, VA, and NM as LIKELY BIDEN, even though the first three have had polls with Trump ahead, and those with Biden leads were very narrow leads.

    He at least gives Trump a LEAN R for NC and GA, but wow, these rankings are something.

    Like

  10. DW Avatar
    DW

    RCP national average for Trump vs Biden head to head is now TRUMP +0.8

    With all the misfits included its TRUMP +2.9

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

    That 2.9 is A BIG lead, given that Trump lost the popular vote last time by quite a bit, and in 2016 he lost the popular vote by a little, and won the election.

    Also, if you look at the line chart in the link, Kennedy’s numbers are in decline. West and Stein never got off the deck. I have no idea why pollsters waste their time and money asking about West and Stein. Should be Trump, Biden, Kennedy, or OTHER.

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  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    and yes, the current 7.4% of Kennedy is an all-time low for him. A candidacy going nowhere.

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  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    Here is a headline showing what Biden is doing to get his campaign back on track:

    “Biden Pledges an Additional $400M to Hamas Terrorists”

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  13. VictrC Avatar
    VictrC

    I think that 7% is about the upper limit for Kennedy. As the election grows nearer I think that some that would normally lean Trump will come back, same with Biden, and only those on the extreme will end up voting for Kennedy…or those who still love the Kennedy mystique.

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  14. DW Avatar
    DW

    Its easy to answer a poll and say “Kennedy,” but when it comes to getting in your car, waiting in line, and then voting, the people who can’t stand Biden and Trump will just stay home, unless there is a Senate or Congressional candidate they care about.

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I expect RFK will do best in states where he won’t matter. His numbers will be low in battleground states.

    Like

  16. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Hello all.

    Today was my bridge playing day. (Had cappy cards. Did crappy and finished i middle of pack, as expected with crappy cards.)

    Then I had to buy 3 bags of cow manure for the wife. (I TOLD her, Cash Cow supplies all we need…)

    ************************

    Anyway…my take on the HHR, the dearth of posters, should we pony up some money to buy ads to boost # of posters here.

    1. Big thanks to Bitter to resurrect HHR from the ashes as Dave W. just had enough of politics and hung it up. I thought Dave ran a good site and big hat tip to him for all his years of dedication.
    2. The HHR site was not only a GOOD site to share and fisk polls, but it was also a place where we shared personal info and became internet friends and acquaintances. I learned a lot about polling, enjoyed the deeper back and forth between various posters on various issues where people came at the issue from different views, and as enlightened by a lot of good HHR posters who were able to read the political tea leaves. (Wes, MD, and others.)
    3. There were always fights going on between this or that pair of posters about various things. Which was tolerable. There were exceptions like the goofball “tgca” who got into it over everything with Bitter (which I learned to just scroll past)….But…the personal attacks on people got unbearable for many and they just left, or began to come here less often. As to WHY people left…I think it’s because of the mean personal attacks–especially by just a few posters who did/do not realize that you can disagree without being disagreeable. (I am not talking about concerted attacks by all of us directed at obvious trolls, nutjob, Chek, or Bubu).
    4. The NEW HHR–DW’s efforts on polling is second to none, IMO. It is fantastic, and it is really the only place I go for polling now. I think a lot of other people would like to be clued in and would enjoy his analysis. I would be willing to pony up some one-time money for ads to boost readership and a wider audience. I might even consider resurrecting the HOBOs (Horny Old Bastards Organization) to counterbalance the A-Holes. My fear is that as soon as new poster(s) comes on, in short order someone will launch a blistering personal attack, question their sanity, tell them off, tell them in a blistering personal attack and say “if you are not thinking like me about this issue and this candidate then you are an ignorant —“, and to have some HHR poster get in their face and oppose every pos they make, and they too will leave. As politics in general became toxic, so did this site (in tone). There was no tolerance of a view different from certain posters. Nobody wants to be invited into someone’s home and then pooped on continually. If we want a broader number of posters, we need to change what we became….and disagree agreeably. Be more civil in discussions. An occasional barb is ok, but some of us dwell in the past and are not able to let go of past comments by/and fights with others meant to cut them to the quick and barbeque them.

    Maybe we need to institute “Rule 24” or something regarding relentless personal attacks. Rule 24 would say a poster can bring up personal issue XYZ three times and that is all. If someone violates the rule, then do like Facebook and ban them/put them in time out for 3 days or a week. And have Rule 25 where when you want to bash someone over a long-standing issue, you just type “Rule 25” directed at the poster you detest.

    BTW, I lost my copy of what the rules were for HHR. What Rule was it where we were not to engage with trolls?

    Liked by 3 people

  17. themohel Avatar
    themohel

    Walt sez….”What Rule was it where we were not to engage with trolls?”

    Great point. Bunu should be totally ignored, imo. I just skip his posts; responding gives him wood.

    Chicon

    Like

  18. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    As always, Walt is a rational voice. Socrates and Aristotle were lucky to be his students.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. DW Avatar
    DW

    he would have taken into his tutelage Plato too, but he couldn’t afford Walt’s fees and tuition

    Liked by 1 person

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    NT

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