According to The Tyson Group:
 | NEVADA – The Tyson Group |
| Trump | 47 |
| Biden | 44 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Trump | 40 |
| Biden | 37 |
| Kennedy | 9 |
| West | 2 |
| Stein | 1 |
| Undecided | 11 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Brown | 33 |
| Rosen | 47 |
| Cunningham | 4 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
33 responses to “Trump with Edge in Nevada”
DW – I saw your post on York. I will let you know if he gets recognition. So far, the show has focused on Pershing, a white soldier named Ellis and 2 black soldiers from the Harlem Hellfighters. Before people who have not watched the show complain, the soldiers from Harlem were the first to fight because white American soldiers were slow to arrive and Pershing sent their division to fight with the French who were clamoring for troops.
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I think Trump should “consider” a fair trial for Assange and Snowden before both traitors are executed.
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For those interested in the betting markets:
Polymarket
April 18
🟦 Biden 45% (+2)
🟥 Trump 43%
.
May 27
🟥 Trump 56% (+19)
🟦 Biden 37%
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Bitter,
The person that left the book review?
His identifier as “Paul4Pres” should be a clue who it was.
**************************
I also just posted a review of Run It Out.
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Here is a poll I missed last week:
NEW YORK CITY:
Trump 26
Biden 56 (+30)
Kennedy 5
Other 4
Undecided 8
This poll was taken by Redfield and Wilton, a UK pollster with a strong left tilt (they still think Florida is a battleground state).
And this poll was taken MAY 12-14, which is PRIOR to Trump’s Bronx rally. That rally let all NYC residents know that its okay to be for Trump and you won’t be lynched by your neighbors. So I would love to see a redo of this poll now, after the rally.
In 2020 election, NYC went Biden 76 (+53), Trump 23.
This explains the Siena poll showing Biden up statewide by only 9 points. With NYC dropping from +53 to +30, Biden +9 statewide makes total sense.
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Update on the VA GOP primary for U.S. Senate.
Listened to interviews of each of the primary candidates, and admittedly was a bit disappointed with Hung Cao. He’s got a great story, and he’s a great guy, he’s a true patriot, but he’s not a great speaker, often struggling to clearly articulate his positions and what he would do. So then I watched the interview with Emord, the lawyer who is running, and wow, constitutional law just flowed out of him, and every issue, he was able to succinctly and accurately argue the conservative positions.
So then I start re-thinking all this, maybe changing my vote from Cao to Emord, and I go to the Emord web page, click on his Endorsements link, and BOOM, first one listed is Ron Paul, which I consider a negative endorsement.
So I am back to Hung Cao.
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Some good news: This from someone who posted at RRH a summary of Chase Oliver, the newly minted Libertarian Party nominee:
“Oliver is an anti-war Obama Democrat who left the Democratic Party because they weren’t anti-war Code Pink enough, Oliver literally joined the Libertarian Party at a 2010 Gay Pride Parade. He wants to cancel all interest on student loans, supports the CeaseFireNow nonsense, open borders, pro-trans men in womens sports, was in favor of mask & vax mandates and is a progressive criminal justice reform activist. Oliver is a completely different direction for the Libertarian Party than the usual former Republican elected officials who run for President on their line as a protest about the GOP being too pro-big government (MacBride, Paul, Barr, Johnson). Oliver is a left wing Libertarian not a conservative one.”
Excellent news, as it puts yet another name out there as bait for the leftist loons, and not another name to compete with Trump.
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Thanks, Walt. I appreciate it. I actually view it as a positive to get a negative review. Better to be hated than ignored.
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“Retired Navy Captain Hung Cao, who looks to secure the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Virginia next month, scored former President Donald Trump’s highly influential endorsement on Sunday.”
I don’t know how much the DJT endorsement will help/hurt, but I continue to hope Cao (no matter if he is less “articulate” than others) wins the primary. His sincerity regarding love for this country, family, and overall values is what is needed in this gutless political environment.
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The WHO Pandemic Treaty couldn’t get enough traction this week, to pass amendments already approved by the Biden Administration. People are finally waking up (a little) about how the WHO’s intentions are to strip countries of their sovereignty in deciding their own course of action or remedies in dealing with anything deemed a crisis by the WHO.
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Wikipedia is often useless…but here is a very nice chart showing the current status of ballot access, by state, for all the major and minor party candidates:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballot_access_in_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election
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Interesting reading up on some of these very minor other parties running a POTUS ticket.
While the Libertarians claim to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal, the American Solidarity Party is fiscally liberal and socially conservative (an ideal landing place for groups like Presbyterians whose theology sees the government playing a heavy hand in everything, but are pro-life).
And of course the Party for Socialism and Liberation is an openly Communist Party here in America with the platform of wanting our country to go through a communist revolution and become a Soviet-style communist state.
With this year’s Libertarian ticket going hard left, the only party that might threaten to siphon off Trump voters is the Constitution Party, appearing on the ballot in 12 states thus far, including WI, NV, NC, and MI.
The situation for Biden is much worse, given Oliver (L), Stein (G), and West will all pull votes from Biden, but not Trump. And its looking like Stein and Oliver will be on the ballot in most places, and West continues to add more states, but probably not getting close to 50.
And the more people learn about Kennedy, the more he will draw from Biden, rather than Trump. I have seen this in recent polling, where it used to be the rust belt states Trump did better without Kennedy in the question, but now its about the same, or even Trump doing slightly better with Kennedy.
This issue of candidates outside the two major parties may potentially be a huge factor in the 2024 election.
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Oh and I meant to point out that I am not commenting directly on the accuracy of this Tyson Group poll, but full disclosure is needed regarding their 2020 POTUS performance, which included:
Alabama: Trump 48, Biden 44
Florida: Trump 47, Biden 45
Louisiana: Trump 48, Biden 42
Mississippi: Trump 50, Biden 40
Texas: Trump 44, Biden 48
So maybe they should stick to their A game of making tasty chicken strips.
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Julie Kelly
@julie_kelly2
·
BREAKING: Judge Cannon, as expected, denies Jack Smith’s proposed gag order, warns sanctions could be next if he keeps violating the rules.
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QUIZ time:
Name the state and the pollster: ______________ _______________
Biden Job Approval:
Approve 36, Disapprove 56
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It’s not IncaPundit
They have Biden’s approval at 34.
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Here is another clue, the state is NOT North Carolina, but this pollster has Biden’s net job approval in NC also at -20.
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DW do not underestimate how many Libertarian votes will be syphoned off from Trump. Many Libertarians will not even bother to look at the nut jobs background and just vote Libertarian because he’s on the line.
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Michigan…PPP
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New York…NYT
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Hi Vic, wrong on both guesses.
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“DW do not underestimate how many Libertarian votes will be syphoned off from Trump.”
Why do you think Libertarian votes will be taken away from Trump? The Libertarian Convention had a mixture of audience approval and disapproval during Trump’s speech. However, just the fact he showed up was considered a plus, just like it was viewed by venturing into the Bronx to solicit votes.
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okay, fair enough, but if the Libertarian voter is just showing up to blindly vote for the Libertarian, then is it really a vote siphoned off from Trump, or Biden for that matter? I was thinking more of the informed Libertarian, but maybe there isn’t such a thing.
I once worked for a Libertarian, and he drove a mid 80s model el camino, a perfect visual for a Libertarian. Looks like a car from the front, but has a truck bed in the back.
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QUIZ answer:
The pollster is Civiqs (D), and the state is Biden’s ‘home’ state of Delaware!
Net -20 job approval in a deep blue state.
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Trende still hates Trump, but essentially admits that the race is not a tossup.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/are-we-too-bearish-on-trump?ct=t(RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN)&mc_cid=57f148566f&mc_eid=51fe5922ff
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Wow
What I meant by the Libertarian vote, is traditionally they have been garnering anywhere from 2-3% which has been enough to cost us Senate seats and Trump votes since most Libertarians would vote Republican before Democrat ( I said MOST, not ALL…so no one bite my head off).
I’d say half of those vote Libertarian without thinking…so, if they took the time to realize that the candidate was a far left loon, they might switch to Trump, which would help him.
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and in that same Civiqs (D) poll, there were only FOUR states with net job approval favoring Biden:
HI +9
MD +1
MA +3
VT +1
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Biden campaign held a press conference outside the NYC courtroom with “special guest” Robert DeNiro.
You can’t make this sh-t up.
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I think Vic is right, unfortunately a lot of the Libertarians will vote the party line without really looking at their candidate.
However, this candidate is the most likely to cost the Libertarians votes. And if you want to pick a candidate that definitely does not appeal to Trump voters, Oliver Chase is that candidate.
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spot on Jason. I have no clue how he garnered the Libertarian nomination for President. He should appear to Bunu though…probably from the same basement
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Having said that, I am skeptical that Libertarians are just wayward Republicans and barring a Libertarian candidate they will vote Republican.
I had epic battle with wes about this, regarding Green voters being just disgruntled Democrats.
Some fall into this category, but in my view. these are voters that vote on extremely narrow issues if they vote at all. Green voters probably vote for Stein because of ONE thing she said, same with Libertarian voters who will cast their votes based on ONE issue (drug decriminalization for example).
I would say 80% of Green and Libertarian voters have an extremely negative view of Ds and Rs.
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I agree jason. I think of the El Camino when thinking of Libertarians. You cannot argue its really a car. You cannot argue its really a truck.
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NT
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