Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:42.0 / 55.1-13.0
Pollsters right in 2024:46.2 / 51.0-4.8

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +3216219

2026 Senate Forecast

TXMEOHMIGANHNCMN
Gap+4.5+2.0+1.4+1.4+1.4+3.6+6.2
Count5051525347464544

New Morning Consult/Bloomberg

Trump leads all but Michigan like their April poll, with some improvement in a few states, Biden closer in others.

ARIZONA Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump49
Biden44 (+2)
Five Candidates:
Trump45 (-1)
Biden40
Kennedy7
Stein2 (+2)
West1 (-1)
5/7-5/13; 795 RV
GEORGIA Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump47 (-2)
Biden44 (+1)
Five Candidates:
Trump43 (-3)
Biden39
Kennedy8 (+3)
Stein1
West1
5/7-5/13; 795 RV
MICHIGAN Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump45
Biden46 (-1)
Five Candidates:
Trump40
Biden42 (-1)
Kennedy7
Stein2 (+1)
West1
5/7-5/13; 704 RV
NEVADA Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump47 (-4)
Biden47 (+4)
Five Candidates:
Trump44 (-4)
Biden39 (+5)
Kennedy7
Stein1 (-2)
West2
5/7-5/13; 459 RV
NORTH CAROLINA Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump49 (-2)
Biden42 (+1)
Five Candidates:
Trump46 (-2)
Biden38
Kennedy7 (+2)
Stein1 (+1)
West1
5/7-5/13; 704 RV
PENNSYLVANIA Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump48 (+1)
Biden46
Five Candidates:
Trump45 (+2)
Biden42
Kennedy7 (-1)
Stein1
West2 (+2)
5/7-5/13; 812 RV
WISCONSIN Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump47 (-1)
Biden46 (+2)
Five Candidates:
Trump43 (-1)
Biden42 (+1)
Kennedy6 (+2)
Stein1
West1
5/7-5/13; 693 RV

9 responses to “New Morning Consult/Bloomberg”

  1. Biden got momentum.

    -free passer

    Like

  2. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Seems like mostly Biden gains. Most disappointing is Nevada.

    Like

  3. jason NeverHaley2024! Avatar
    jason NeverHaley2024!

    Trump needs to flip GA, AZ and NV and win ONE of WI, PA, MI. Yes there are other paths but that is the most obvious.

    The other paths involve states like ME and NH where Trump seems competitive, but the above gets it done without a lot of less plausible scenarios.

    https://www.electoral-vote.com/

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  4. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Yep, Trump still ahead in the 5 way race in NV.

    Still, NV is important.

    Like

  5. Nobody at HHR supports Biden’s re-election but Tina persists.

    Like

  6. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    I am seeing a lot of anecdotal evidence that PA is looking like 2016. Trump signs are everywhere and Biden signs are rarer than rocking horse turds.

    The main problem is VBM. Nothing was done to fix the abuses and there will again be millions of ballots circulating without a chain of custody.

    Like

  7. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    With the CA election last night, Johnson is back to a +5 majority in the House, 218-213.

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  8. My apologies Bitter…I forgot to log out and wrongly posted stuff in your name. Deleted them and reposting below:

    Trump gains in PA, which is encouraging. I would take gain in PA, and dip in NV any day of the week–especially when there is still a lead of 5 in NV.

    But the April Bloomberg polls were off the charts for Trump, so its not a shock that there was some pull back.

    Another path jason is flip NV, GA, AZ, and then flip NE_02. The recent poll there shows Trump +3. That would result in a 269-269 tie which would give the election to Trump if there are no faithless electors.

    “With the CA election last night, Johnson is back to a +5 majority in the House, 218-213.”

    Excellent. And in GA, there was a hotly contested supreme court election and the eeyores at RRH said the liberal would win because of low turnout and abortion.

    The conservative judge won going way, +10 last time I checked.

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