According to new polls from Emerson and PPIC:
 | FLORIDA – Emerson |
| Trump | 51 |
| Biden | 38 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Trump | 49 |
| Biden | 35 |
| Kennedy | 6 |
| West | 1 |
| Stein | 1 |
 | CALIFORNIA – PPIC |
| Trump | 31 |
| Biden | 54 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
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- Christmas Eve
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Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
42 responses to “No surprises in FL or CA”
First.
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Florida poll confirms the last laugh against those who laughed at the Big Data poll that had same margin.
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Bitter says….I wonder why somebody would vote saying, “I am voting for Trump because Democrats ‘ policies are destroying the country. I am voting for a Democrat for Governor because Democrats’ policies are great for my state.”
Well said, applies to the Senate and House races as well. I don’t think many will switch. That’s why I think Brown and Tester are in trouble.
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DW, Baris has designated a Trump bootlicker by the Kool Kidz, so his polls must be discarded. Even if (perhaps, especially because) they are often right.
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Same polls show Rick Scott +7, 45/38, and Steve Garvey in CA trailing badly at 37/61.
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And for those keeping score at home, Emerson has now polled 33 of the 50 states.
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And 87 of the 254 pollsters on my list have done at least one state poll for this cycle. I have a feeling a lot of them on my list are no longer in business.
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And for those who wonder whatever happened to ‘Messy’–now a regular over at RRH.
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Wait….is that yet another state in which Little Tent Don is out-polling the Senate Republican candidate? Can’t be….
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I hope Messy took some remedial English spelling and grammar classes. And some US history. She is one ignorant moron.
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Messy just got schooled over there. Tried to mock the Emerson poll because they didn’t include an abortion referendum in the poll, inferring that it might have skewed the topline numbers in Trump’s favor, and immediately (s)he got a reply that they DID in fact ask that question.
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Sheehy is a better candidate than Moreno and I think Trump will win in MT by a bigger margin than in OH.
That all helps Sheehy.
On the other hand Tester projects himself as a “rancher” who is a moderate, something Sherrod Brown can’t really claim. This is the only reason he is still competitive, like Bob Casey here in PA some people swallow the “moderate” BS.
I think Tester’s expiration date has finally come, he was lucky to have the last 2 terms.
If Trump loses, only the Senate can save us from complete disaster. A Biden presidency with a Dem senate means the end of the filibuster, federalization of voting laws, citizenship for illegals, $ 6 trillion infrastructure package. Good luck trying to win elections after all that passes.
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The FL numbers are astonishing if you consider how close FL was for so many elections.
Too bad the abortion referendum will be on the ballot, that will help the Dems avoid being completely crushed. A lot of money by the abortion lobby will be spent in FL, without that the Dems would not be spending much there at all.
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I still think it’s a little too rich regarding Florida. Maybe trump plus 6 or 8.
No longer a battleground
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New national poll:
Trump 53
Biden 47
ActiVote, March 24-April 10
995 LV
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Sick!
Biden promises a new war to Israel. Walks back ceasefire talks
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-promises-israel-ironclad-support-against-iran-walks-back-call-israelis Biden promises a new war to Israel
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OJ Simpson has died at age 76 from cancer. Good.
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I guess OJ was a fluent liar to the end. Just over two months ago he gave an interview in Vegas saying he was looking forward to the SB and his health was good and he would be back on the golf course soon.
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I always wondered what OJ would have done if he had played for a more competitive team than the Bills at the time.
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Good for OJ. Hopefully it hurt.
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13 points seems to be a tall order in Florida; although DeSantis won reelection by more than that, I believe.
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13 points seems to be a tall order in Florida; although DeSantis won reelection by more than that, I believe.
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OJ was also linked to the Philadelphia Eagles. The team had started 0-11 but then won 2 games and lost the chance to draft OJ. Hence, the snow balls at Santa incident.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Eagles_Santa_Claus_incident
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I won $2000 betting on the OJ trial, it seemed like a lot more money in 1995.
I bet he would be acquitted against 4 guys who put up $500 each and gave me 2-1 odds.
Their argument was the evidence was overwhelming. They were right of course.
My argument was it was a black jury, a dream team, and a racist detective who stupidly tried to “help” the evidence (I think the glove was planted).
I always thought OJ was guilty as hell AND was framed, both could be true.
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13 points is untenable. I think if he is 6-8% that would demonstrate a huge swing in the state in just 8 years.
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I agree with Chicon.
I agree with Chicon.
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OJ is also responsible for the international disgrace of the fame of all of the Kardashians. Robert Kardashian was an early part of his defense team. No OJ? No Kim, Khloe, whatever the rest of them are named on TV and Social Media.
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I think the abortion referendum will cut into Trump’s margin by bringing out a lot of one issue voters.
But in any case he will win comfortably and hopefully have some coattails in the congressional races.
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Was that what made the Kardashians famous?
Didn’t know that.
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I also thought the jailing of OJ in Nevada on “kidnapping” and other charges resulting from his memorabilia raid was “judicial revenge”, the judge threw the book at him and he was grossly overcharged.
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OJ and The J6ers! Solid band name….first album titled “Overcharged”!
In OJ’s case, perhaps the Nevada case was karma.
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That is what made Kardashian, an entertainment lawyer, nationally famous.
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Kris Jenner’s second husband Caitlyn was a lot more famous. The attorney aspect is more of a sidenote. The Kim K sex tape years later is what made them famous. Many believe OJ was Khloe’s father.
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I’ll split the difference on FL and go for 9-10 points; don’t underestimate the huge registration lead the GOP has taken over a few years ago (net flip of 1 million, and those new emigres from CA and elsewhere are solid partisans, not RINOs). A solid win like that would help eat into the PV deficit, along with improved losing margins in NJ. NY, CA, and possibly IL..
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Not sure how a Republican vote in NY switching to a Republican vote in FL changes the national popular vote.
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Do we need a wellness check on Walt today?
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Chicon;
It doesn’t on its own. However, polling has shown that Trump is doing better margin wise in NY vs 2016 and 2020 (probbaly due to improved numbers with Jews, Hispanics and some blacks – the white wokies in Westchester are still heavily Dem). If he loses by, say, 15 instead of 20-23, that will improve the NPV differential independent of what goes on in FL (where all the new Republicans will
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It doesn’t. Only Dems vote in multiple states.
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I have a friend who is Armenian. It annoys him that the Kardashians are Armenian. It is like my annoyance that the Kennedys and Biden are Irish and allegedly Catholic.
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Armenians wear sweaters? 😉
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GF, if Biden underperforms in NY or CA compared to previous elections, it will be because voters switched from Biden to Trump. The population outflow in those states seems to include more R’s than D’s given what’s happening in Florida. All things being equal, the D should win CA and NY by larger numbers than previously. If they don’t, it’s because voters are switching allegiance.
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New thread
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