According to J.L. Partners:
 | MONTANA – J.L. Partners |
| Sheehy | 48 |
| Tester | 45 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
- Merry Christmas!
- Christmas Eve
- Eve of Christmas Eve
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
99 responses to “Sheehy ahead in US Senate race – Montana”
Wake up, meatheads!
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HHR: Trump needs to do something to attract Bitter’s friends in the suburbs or he can’t win.
Trump: Ok, I’ll sidestep the abortion issue by saying it’s a states issue.
HHR: I can’t believe Trump did that! He’s the worst.
I love this place….
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DW, is JL Partners a decent pollster. A 500 sample size makes me a bit wary.
Note to Bitter – this is an example of “skewing” a poll that favors the Republican (and your buddy Trump). Not that you’ll take note or remember next time you go off on the “You’re a blind Trump lover” drivel.
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Chicon, I think you confused Bitter for jason.
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J.L. Partners is new this cycle. They have put out four state polls of the POTUS race with numbers basically in line with others, with maybe a slightly tilt toward Biden.
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Bitter has often accused me of being a blind pro-Trump zealot.
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okay, the skewing argument was the one I had with jason.
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I hope they’re right. Trump is gonna win Montana bigly (Trump word inserted for effect); Tester will need a huge number of crossovers to win. Same deal with Ohio.
Jason disagrees with me on that. While I do respect his political analysis, I think Tester and Sherrod are going down.
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Let me just say this…the person who commits rape or incest and gets a female pregnant should get the death sentence not the baby.
Yes life begins at conception … novel idea considering that was how we all who have life now have breath to live.
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Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) opposes a warrant requirement that he once supported for a controversial surveillance law, according to a report.
Politico reported that Johnson’s staffer told a group of Republican staffers that the Speaker opposes a warrant requirement as the House moves toward a vote on a bill aimed at reauthorizing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), a controversial surveillance law that is meant to target foreign adversaries but often ends up surveilling American citizens.
I hope this isn’t true. Even after all of what abuses came from Russia Gate.
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I agree. Suburban women don’t. At least enough of them. Sticking firmly to that position means losing elections, but at least you’ll SEND A MESSAGE!
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https://www.gbnews.com/politics/donald-trump-david-cameron-us-talks
This is interesting. Looks like the globalists want Trump support.
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The Speaker wants something that can pass an evenly divided House. I understand that; but that kind of flip-flop is what (once repeated ad nauseum) resulted in Trump. If Republicans would have more often done what they ran on, there wouldn’t be a Trump.
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I am going to sulk all day because Chicon called me a meathead.
But maybe Bitter will give me some points.
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hope they’re right. Trump is gonna win Montana bigly (Trump word inserted for effect); Tester will need a huge number of crossovers to win. Same deal with Ohio.
Jason disagrees with me on that.”
No, I agree that both Moreno and Tester need a large number of crossovers to win.
I disagree that this is not possible.
Still, I give both of them a 50% chance of winning.
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Meathead gets no points. Sorry.
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Yes life begins at conception … novel idea considering that was how we all who have life now have breath to live.”
Zzzzz….
I think a human life starts when the fetus is viable.
Sue me.
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Damn. So much attention from Chicon this morning.
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I agree. Suburban women don’t. At least enough of them. Sticking firmly to that position means losing elections, but at least you’ll SEND A MESSAGE!”
JeffP wants Trump to stick to a position that will ensure he loses the election just so JeffP can say “I told you so”.
There is really little difference between JeffP and Amoral Scumbag.
For them, the ends always justify the means.
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We still don’t know how Walt began.
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The recent science advancement has helped and polling has shifted in recent years… when communicated properly people get it. The problem is the messaging.
I am a states rights advocate. Trump is taking a nineties pro choice position as leader of the national party. The national ban is a straw man. Used by the left. It is a states rights issue but when you take or support a nineties pro choice position you have compromised.
He could have easily said … states rights issue and value life of the unborn BUT HE DID NOT.
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Meathead gets no points. Sorry.
Chicon”
Has your A-hole application been approved?
Don’t think so. Last I hear it was stuck in committee pending further
investigations.
Only A-holes can give points or receive points.
Sorry.
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He could have easily said … states rights issue and value life of the unborn BUT HE DID NOT.
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Trump stick to a position? He can’t even stick with a party.
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“For them, the ends always justify the means.”
Says the humanist who lives by this.
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Well you don’t understand science then.
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“Trump is taking a nineties pro choice position as leader of the national party.”
BS.
He is taking a 2024 position that says abortion should be a states issue.
He is right.
Nothing else needed to be said.
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Trump is at abortion up to five months clown. He has publicly said it multiple times.
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Well you don’t understand science then.”
LOL
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Only A-holes can poke A-holes with impunity. 10 points to Jason.
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I am ok with 20 weeks myself.
But I think a great majority of the country would compromise at 15 weeks.
That eliminates the extremists on both ends.
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Bitter, all the attention is typed while at least partially smiling.
Not sure how Jason gets points when I said nice things about him while jabbing Bitter. A-holes work in mysterious ways.
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A-holes give and take according to our own rules.
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This is a tragedy so I will refrain from any obvious jokes about lawyers killing each other.
But I think its a tremendous lack of judgment to have your new husband represent you in a case where you are trying to deny joint custody to your ex-husband, who at the deposition is being represented by his father. The ex-husband is also an attorney.
In my view, the new husband, evidently a famous trial lawyer in Vegas, should never have accepted to represent his wife against her ex-husband and his father. As a renowned attorney in Vegas, he could have referred her to any number of competent lawyers he knew and trusted.
Now the new husband, the wife, and the father of the ex-husband are all dead.
LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Documents obtained by 8 News Now show that the woman allegedly killed by her ex-father-in-law during a deposition filed documents for sole custody of her children with the alleged killer’s son the morning of the shooting.
Dennis Prince was representing his wife, Ashley Prince, during a deposition involving Ashley Prince’s ex-husband. Ashley Prince’s ex-husband’s father, Joe Houston II, was representing his son, Dylan Houston, in the proceedings, sources said.
During Monday morning deposition, Joe Houston II allegedly shot the Princes before killing himself, sources said.
The road to explain the Las Vegas attorney’s alleged involvement dates back a few years when Dylan Houston and then Ashley Houston, filed for divorce.
https://thedplg.com/dennis-m-prince/
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Jason says ” I think its a tremendous lack of judgment to have your new husband represent you in a case where you are trying to deny joint custody to your ex-husband.”
Jason’s right (this is getting painful). There’s a famous line that also applies here…”a lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client.”
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I have never had a family law case. I don’t want to be involved in that misery.
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We don’t need any more new polls.
What we NEED are:
–more stories about various members of the British royal family
–more stories about celebrities on who is dating who, who kissed who, etc.
–more stories on how the ocean levels have risen and swamped various coastal U.S. cities and other manmade global warming stories
–more stories on how many US. presidents were transgender or gay.
–more stories of how systemic racism of the past is justifiable reason for lawlessness of large numbers of minorities and why we should pay reparations
–more stories to prove there is 0 fraud in any U.S. election ecept by Republians)
–more stories of how Republicans are evil, illegal alien surge is good, guns are bad, sharks are good, Israel brought all this on itself, etc.
–more stores about asteroids 50 billion light years away that will never hit earth
–more stories about odd behavior of animals
________________________________________________________
You know, more stories about things that REALLTY matter.
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RFK now has the signatures to be on the ballot in Nebraska. Would love to see a presidential poll of the Omaha congressional district including Kennedy.
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Walt says we need “more stories on how many US. presidents were transgender or gay”
I heard Trump is, in secret, really a tranny. He’s going to begin wearing dresses the morning after the inauguration.
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Walt, you left out the official recommendation in Canada, that you leave all your valuables right inside your front door, so that when people break in to steal, they won’t have to search the house and get into a violent confrontation.
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The good news is that I can move today.
Slow, and with some pain, but I can move.
######################################
Will do more hand painting of hard to get to parts of the fence from hell before the rains come.
Probably push the spray painting off another day. Because Once I start to spray paint I do not want to stop and do all the leaning of the sprayer and then restart later and do that 50 million times.
I will start spraying and then Katie bar the door.
I will spray paint anything that gets in the way–birds, squirrels, cats and dogs, small children door to door salesmen, or anything else that wanders by…
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I suggest when you b@st@rds are 76 1/2 years old, you find 800 feet of fence to power wash, treat with algaecide and then stain.
************************************************
And then think of me…and think “I now appreciate what Walt endured.”
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Nineveh News: The Biden administration has issued a new executive order on Squatter’s rights. The standing policy in New York City is now the law of the land. But to further assist squatters, the 30 day squatter-to-tenant requirement will be waived. If you as much leave your house to go shopping and return to find squatters have broken in and taken control of the house, it is no longer your home to use as you now have tenants. You will still have to pay the electric and gas bills, and all applicable taxes, insurance, and fees.
In addition, when you vote in the November election, you will be required to bring your new tenants to the polls, where local election officials will ensure that your tenants vote in your place.
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I&I/TIPP is out with the new combo poll.
1. Biden is charging!
2. Kennedy will help elect Trump!
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Jason’s right (this is getting painful).”
Others have tried to resist this truism without success.
Accept the inevitable.
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There’s a famous line that also applies here…”a lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client.”
You would think representing your wife against her ex-husband and his father in a custody battle where she is trying to deny his parental rights and what had to be a highly emotionally charged deposition would be a bad idea. Since he was married to the person who was asking for sole custody he had an obvious conflict of interest since the children would be living with him also.
Horrible lack of judgment which cost him and his wife their lives. A their newborn will never know his parents.
I am not absolving the killer. But perhaps a less conflicted lawyer would not have elicited the type of anger the ex-father in law (and grandfather) experienced.
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that TIPP poll was out a few days ago.
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800 feet of fencing to power wash, treat and then stain is a huge undertaking, Walt, at any age. You must be in good shape!
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I’m not immortal so I would just let the fence fall apart. Because Walt will live forever, he has to maintain everything.
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Oops, sorry. It was listed as yesterday on Real Clear Polling.
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“So two things are happening at once: The Republican Party is thoroughly MAGA and will be for the foreseeable future, and there is a small but influential number of Republicans who are deeply opposed to what their party has become but not prepared to shed their political identity and join the Democrats.
For this group, one viable course remains: create a Republican Party in exile, a counterestablishment dedicated to recapturing the party from the outside.”
I agree with the NYT. I was actually never a Republican but I have exiled myself in Bogo Pogo in solidarity with the Republicans in exile.
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Jason is sometimes right. Jason is sometimes wrong. Both can be true.
GFYs.
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”The national ban is a straw man. Used by the left.”
Tell that to Lindsey Graham, who can’t stop talking about enacting a national ban. The Left might use it anyhow as a cudgel, but Graham and his cohorts are giving them all the ammunition they need.
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Here is the thing. I am deeply opposed to “what the party has become”, and that is why I left it. And I agree that the party I identified with is not coming back. It is gone forever.
But I don’t identify with the “exiled Republican” scumbags like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and Chris Christie because you can disagree with what the party has become without basically aiding and endorsing and enabling the enemy, which is a Dem Party whose leadership is composed of Marxists.
If you think electing Biden and a Dem majority is a “cure” for the R party, it is basically saying i will drink poison because it will cure my hangover.
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Bitterlaw
April 9, 2024 at 11:32 am
Jason is sometimes right. Jason is sometimes wrong. Both can be true.”
Bitter is right when he thinks I am right.
Bitter is wrong when he thinks I am wrong.
Both can be true.
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SCOTUS should have invented new law and said there is a constitutional right to abortion up to 15 weeks. After that only in cases of rape and incest and to save the life of the mother.
Nobody would have been happy on the extremes of the issue but I think 70% of America would have been ok with it and the issue would be dead as electoral fodder.
Unfortunately SCOTUS did the right thing, declared there was no constitutional right to abortion and the states should decide.
Something doing the right thing is not the best thing politically.
But in any case, I think Trump did the right thing. Yes, the Dems will say he is lying and Rs still want an abortion ban, but the goalposts moved somewhat. Rs needed some clarity, they got it. Everyone now has something to counter the Rs will ban abortion meme.
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Biden has taken a big lead on the prediction sites. This is because Trump’s lead in the RCP average is down to 0.3%.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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Ah, the prediction sites. I recall well election night 2016, the prediction sites had Hillary hugely over Trump, and 538 was viciously ridiculed for giving Trump even a slight chance to win. I think it was sometime around just after 9:00 when the prediction sites finally evened out, when Wisconsin polls closed and it was too close to call, rather than called immediately for Hillary as was expected.
Then within 24 hours or so, Hillary became an election denier.
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Rasmussen’s Biden Job Approval just got worse for him, 42/57 whereas yesterday it was 43/56.
There is a Dem pollster, Civiqs, that has been tracking job approval all along. Suddenly, they stopped posting results on 4/5. Nothing. No explanation. Their numbers have been hovering around 36/56 for some time.
They also show their Biden Job Approval by State. Here are the ONLY states that show Biden approval greater than disapproval:
California: 47/45
Hawaii: 55/36
Maryland: 48/43
Massachusetts: 48/42
That’s it. And no one would question that Wisconsin is a battleground state, but there the job approval is 43/51, whereas in Virginia its 39/54.
Other notables:
Arizona: 34/60
Georgia: 34/57
Michigan: 36/58
Minnesota: 39/53
Nebraska: 27/58
Nevada: 35/59
North Carolina: 36/58
Pennsylvania: 36/58
Not exactly the look of a strong incumbent cruising to re-election.
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New national poll of 1000 Latinos done by IPSOS.
After asking 27 pages worth (!) of other questions, many of them leading questions, they finally got to the horserace:
Donald Trump 28
Joe Biden 31
Someone else 11
Unsure 28
Skipped 2
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then they asked these same Latinos if they voted in 2020, who did they vote for:
Did not vote 49
Joe Biden 25
Donald Trump 15
Someone else 8
Skipped 3
Looks like a shift toward Trump to me.
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DW, that last question with 49% did not vote is eye opening, more so because of the 3/2 Biden split amongst those who did (Biden won Hispanics 59-38 in most exits I saw). If Hispanic non voters can be tempted to come out, along with some Biden switchers, it’s going to be a rough night for the Dems even if they hold or slightly improve with college whites.
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National GE Poll ( Morning Consult)
🟥 Trump: 44% [+2]
🟦 Biden: 43% [-1]
Net 3 point swing towards Trump
Biden gets 83% of his 2020 voters while Trump gets 90%
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1777739289842909599
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VOTER REGISTRATION EDGE IN KEY STATES:
FLORIDA
Dec. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +97,215
April 1, 2024: 🔴 GOP +888,563
PENNSYLVANIA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +685,818
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +399,494
NORTH CAROLINA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +391,414
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +170,943
NEVADA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +86,723
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +32,856
IOWA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔴 GOP +13,085
April 1, 2024: 🔴 GOP +148,140
COLORADO
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +100,256
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +104,261
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1777479851684897004
Colorado should just be renamed Califado. These idiots who voted to destroy California, flee the state to Colorado, only to continue voting for the same conditions they fled.
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Prediction sites are not predictive of election results. They are a snapshot in time based on polls and collective wisdom. They do reflect the view of people willing to bet on outcomes. 2 weeks ago Trump was the favorite 5 and now Biden is favored by 7, meaning the perception among the bettors has shifted.
Right now the polls have narrowed and Trump’s advantage in RCP average is down to nothing.
Should anyone care about “collective wisdom”?
I say yes because it influences narratives and more importantly, it influences donors. Right now, whether you believe it or don’t or even if it is true or not, the “collective wisdom” is that Biden has narrowed or cancelled Trump’s lead.
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okay, and re-check your betting site after RCP removes the Biden +2 morning consult poll and replaces it with the Trump +1 poll.
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DW, you should stop being offended by facts.
Maybe the betting site will change with the new poll, and change back with the next poll.
It doesn’t change anything I wrote. In fact, it supports it.
Trump is no longer the favorite at betting sites because of unfavorable polls.
If he gets more favorable polls, that will change.
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NIce.
But I am sure the Putin Lapdogs will oppose it because it doesn’t help the Russians to win.
“On Tuesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it completed a transfer of numerous weapons and ammunition seized from Iran to Ukraine in the last week. Those munitions include machine guns, sniper rifles, rocket launchers, and hundreds of thousands of rounds, seized from vessels belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and intended to reach the Houthis in Yemen. “
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“DW, you should stop being offended by facts.”
I was offended by no fact.
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I am only pointing out that there is no point in one getting his boxers in a bunch because the polls go up and down and with them the betting sites. It happens every election. And its April. Long way to go.
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You whine like a stuck pig whenever anyone mentions a FACT about polling that isn’t favorable to Trump.
I explained why the betting sites have switched from Trump to Biden being favored and you tell me to check it because there is a new poll more favorable to Trump?
Zzzzz…..
Your are going to have a miserable time here between now and November if you are going to question every post that you don’t think is Trump friendly enough.
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here is no point in one getting his boxers in a bunch”
Hilarious by someone who gets his boxers in a bunch at any suggestion Trump might have an unfavorable poll.
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And its April. Long way to go.”
Yeah. So deal with it.
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Trump has gone thru, and survived, a minefield of manufactured issues created by the progressive dems and establishment republicans. He still has many hurdles to get around before November arrives, and these will cause polling and prediction sites to be erratic. However, he seems to adapt and even grow his base, almost because of the fractious atmosphere rather than caving to it.
I also think his abortion statement was very much in line with what anti-Roe conservatives have called for – leaving the states to individually deal with abortion perimeters. What many are saying today is his stance cooled the topic for the abortion fanatics, by not magnifying the issue for purposes of inflaming the upcoming election.
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Rs have a 900,000 advantage in Florida.
It is no longer a battleground.
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DW, as mentioned in the past, mentioning pro-Trump polling and discussing why an anti-Trump poll could have poor methodology will get “skew the polls” warming up in the bullpen.
Then you get silliness like this “Your are going to have a miserable time here between now and November if you are going to question every post that you don’t think is Trump friendly enough.”
You, of course, do nothing of the sort, but….
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Send him back.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/04/09/david-cameron-flies-to-mar-a-lago-and-trump-meeting-as-he-seeks-more-u-s-funding-for-ukraine/
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Tina, Trump will lose almost every state (Walt will drag Big Orange over the line in WV). It’s been written here!
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I wonder what it is like to live in JanWorld where Trump is a political genius and Zelensky is the real enemy of Ukraine.
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“You whine like a stuck pig whenever anyone mentions a FACT about polling that isn’t favorable to Trump.”
That’s not true at all. I have posted the polls as they come out, regardless what they show.
I will only have a miserable time between now and November if Trump tanks and is headed for a sure defeat. But I have a commitment to post polls here to help out Bitter, and whatever is true is true. I have said and have demonstrated that I won’t sugar-coat it, or try to explain anything away.
Here is an example. Lets say a reputable pollster, like Selzer, does a national sample of 2000 LVs and they find that Trump is down 5. That would be very concerning to me, and there would be no sugar-coating it.
But if some new pollster that no one has ever heard of, does a national poll of 150 adults, and they find EITHER Trump or Biden up 10, I will discard it. Its not a valid poll with that kind of sample size. Has nothing to do with who I am cheering for or who I am against.
Some weeks back FNU came out with battleground states polling that was very favorable to Trump, but I discounted them in the HHR aggregator because the sample sizes were pathetically small.
Here is a new national poll:
Trump 46
Biden 44
Benenson Strategy Group,
March 25-28
1,000 RV
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Tina is disappointed that Ukraine refuses to surrender.
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Are the free passes discounting Trump, Chicon?
Catching up with things here after my travels.
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Trump will lose.
Trump is for abortion.
More $$$ for the grifter.
Did I miss anything?
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Chicon – Why do people have to worship Trump as long as he still gets their vote?
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They don’t. Never said they did.
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Welcome back. Putin missed your support.
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Tina, Trump being ahead in battleground states means nothing – he will lose anyway. Pro-Trump polls are discarded; pro-Biden polls are truthsayers that portend doom. You know the drill.
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As usual Bitter, I’ve never said Trump was a “genius.” I have marveled, though, how he has survived the gauntlet of lawfare, lies, and bad press without being killed on the vine. As for Zelenskyy, he started out being for the people of Ukraine. But, now he has evolved into a leader where people are fleeing Ukraine to escape his bans and policies. That’s not my world. It’s the current status of Ukraine – a status you are in full denial of.
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And for the record, I am very concerned about Trump’s chances this fall. Its the lawfare, the baggage, and a host of other issues that DeSantis did not have, which is why I was for DeSantis. Trump may win, but his candidacy is still doing the election the hard way. We had an easy way, but most didn’t want it.
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more from Morning Consult, Trump’s favorability is 40/45. Slightly better than Biden’s.
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Remember Sheila Jackson Lee of “tell them to move the (MARS) rover to where the astronauts left the flag” fame?
She is back.
Sheila Jackson Lee: It’s “almost impossible to go near the sun,” but the “moon is more manageable” because it’s “made up mostly of gases”
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Zzzzzzzz Still blaming Zelensky and not Putin for Ukrainian suffering.
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The moon is made up of gasses and Guam will tip over.
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Yes, DeSantis may not have had the “baggage” of Trump, but the dems would have come after him hard on other issues, especially his controversial abortion stance, vacating his governorship right after being re-elected, and overall personality “stiffness” when in the public eye. People just didn’t connect with DeSantis like they do with Trump, which was ultimately his Achilles Heel in the primaries. If they did he would have done much better. What got DeSantis thru in the beginning were the piles of donor monies and his wholesome, friendly wife. However, once he didn’t live up to donor expectations, the money dried up and so did his run for the presidency. Trump, OTOH, despite innumerable imperfections and initially few deep pocket donors, preserved, grew more followers from a loyal base making him a stronger candidate, IMO, going forward than RDS.
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Reality check.. “I also think his abortion statement was very much in line with what anti-Roe conservatives have called for” …Jan
The serious pro life voters that helped Trump win in 2016 and overturn Row v Wade are not happy.
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Trump did nothing over 4 years to add to his base
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I guess they can vote for Biden. Like you.
Chicon
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New thread
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”Still blaming Zelensky and not Putin for Ukrainian suffering.”
Putin invaded initiating chaos and suffering. Zelenskyy has governed the country for over two years of war, setting policy, laws, involuntary conscription standards, seemingly oblivious to anything but “winning” at any cost – a cost borne more by the common people of Ukraine, not the oligarchs or political officials. Also, how Ukraine is faring nobody really knows. Information and war footage is scarce, as Zelenskyy and US governments only release what they approve of for public consumption. For instance, Ukrainian war fatalities are vague and mainly assumptions, as there are no official records kept by the government, only cemeteries full of the recent dead.
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