According to Emerson/The Hill:
 | ARIZONA – Emerson |
| Trump | 48 |
| Biden | 44 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Trump | 46 |
| Biden | 38 |
| Kennedy | 7 |
| Stein | 7 |
| West | 1 |
 | NEVADA – Emerson |
| Trump | 51 |
| Biden | 49 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Trump | 41 |
| Biden | 36 |
| Kennedy | 9 |
| West | 2 |
| Stein | 1 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
- Merry Christmas!
- Christmas Eve
- Eve of Christmas Eve
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
57 responses to “Trump with small leads in AZ and NV”
Trump won Ohio by about 480,000 votes in 2020. Assuming the same vote (I suspect reality will be a bigger margin), 240,000 voters will need to vote for Trump and Brown.
I’d be curious to see the demographic of this group. Is this another example of Orange Ogre outperforming a Senate candidate?
Chicon
LikeLike
Bitter is Irish; doom and gloom is part of the makeup. Polls that show Biden down are tossed aside; polls showing Moreno behind are sacrosanct.
Chicon
LikeLike
And Selzer just dropped a National poll:
Trump 45
Biden 38
LikeLike
Zzzzzzzz Show me the post where I toss away polls where Biden trails. You are one who rejects any polls that don’t show Trump and his apostles/candidates winning landslide victories.
I think Trump will lose and it will not be due to fraud. I hope I am wrong. On the other hand, Chicon has employed the classic HHR logic of Trump will win because Trump will win.
LikeLike
Trump won Ohio by about 480,000 votes in 2020. Assuming the same vote (I suspect reality will be a bigger margin), 240,000 voters will need to vote for Trump and Brown.”
This is entirely possible. So is a significant percentage leaving it blank.
I really dislike Moreno’s statement about gun owners. In normal circumstance this would be enough for me to not vote for him.
“Moreno suggested that gun owners who oppose ammunition control laws and the banning of certain types of guns have a mental illness”
Given the stakes of this election I would swallow hard and vote for him. But others might not. 40% of Ohio households own guns.
LikeLike
Moreno will trail Trump in OH by a significant margin. Taking bets if you disagree.
By how much will determine if he wins or loses.
I thought his primary win was impressive. I went from giving him a 70% chance to a 50% chance.
Moreno is an immigrant from Colombia who became a citizen at 18. But his is not a story of “seeking a better life”, his father was secretary of health in Colombia and the family was upper class. It was actually the opposite, his mother worried his upper class upbringing would make him too self entitled. Still, Moreno worked his way up in the car dealership business, bought his own dealership and expanded his business to the largest luxury auto chain in the Midwest. He is a successful entrepreneur who employs 600 people.
Ohio is almost 5% Hispanic and the Ohio Hispanics have tended to vote Democratic by a large margin. While not the poster immigrant child, maybe Moreno can steal some votes out of this demographic.
LikeLike
Moreno’s story is similar to mine. No, I was not upper class and no I did not build a successful car dealership empire but these are small details.
LikeLike
Emerson also posted Senate numbers:
AZ: Gallego 51, Lake 49
NV: Rosen 41, Brown 39
LikeLike
Emerson didn’t crawl into a hole yet?
Ohio 2024 Poll: Dolan 26%, Moreno 23%, LaRose 16%, 32%
March 13th, 2024
Ok, their final poll did show Moreno ahead with 38% but even that was way off.
LikeLike
Bitter, I believe your stance is that Trump will lose PA. Correct me if that’s not correct. The RCP average has Trump up .6 in PA, winning the last three polls by 2, 4 and 6.
Trump is up 3.5 in MI, and 5+ in AZ. He’s up one in WI. Up 5 in NC, and 5.5 in GA.
You say Trump will lose (which could be true), yet say you don’t toss polls. That’s plainly untrue.
You say I use “classic HHR logic of Trump will win because Trump will win.” Polling says Trump is ahead, but you cling to the position he will lose. Sounds like TDS logic of Trump willlose because Trump will lose.
You’re doing exactly what you accuse me of doing. I guess that’s not just a Democrat thing, eh?
Chicon
LikeLike
AZ: Gallego 51, Lake 49
Lake needs to be ahead by at least 4 to overcome the MOF.
LikeLike
Just for context, the final 2020 Marist poll of North Carolina was Trump 46/Biden 52
Trump of course won NC. So now Marist is giving Trump a 3 point lead, which for them, is huge.
LikeLike
The biggest pollster loser last night was East Carolina University:
East Carolina U.
3/8 – 3/11
Moreno 31
Dolan 33
LaRose 23
LikeLike
Brown was elected in 2006, an off year election when Bush was in the tank. In 2012 he was reelected when Obama won Ohio. In 2018 he won again during a terrible year for Republicans.
He gets credit for the wins, but this will be a harder test that he’s had in the past.
Jason, why do you think Moreno will underperform Orange Ogre significantly?
Chicon
LikeLike
I think Trump will lose too. And I hardly have TDS.
But thinking he will lose doesn’t mean I don’t think he COULD win.
I just think there are too many variables still in play, the 800 lb gorilla are the bogus cases against him and the intention of the Dems to get at least one conviction before the election.
Polls show if this happen it will impact the race, how much depends on which case it is. The MSM will play up the “convicted felon” card to the hilt.
There are other variables such as the VP pick.
There are variables on the Dem side too. How may Muslims in MI will actually not vote for Biden. Will his mental/physical decline get even worse.
But pointing out that Trump is 0.6 points ahead in PA as an argument that he is the favorite to win is ridiculous. Starting by the fact that if Trump “wins” by 0.6% in PA he won’t really win, that will never overcome the margin of fraud here.
LikeLike
Jason, Bitter says he doesn’t toss polls. The last three polls of PA are Trump +2, +4, and +6. To state he will lose PA without fraud, those polls must be tossed.
Chicon
LikeLike
Jason, why do you think Moreno will underperform Orange Ogre significantly?”
LikeLike
Late last year and throughout January and some into February, the pollsters on the left, which is most of them, were more honest with their results, attempting to show Dems the great risk in running Biden again. But now that he has secured the nomination, and there seems to be no appetite to replace him, I am starting to see the pollsters pivot into rescue mode.
This means that going forward it will be up the more honest pollsters to let us know the status of the races.
But I expect Quinnipiac, Marist, CBS News, FoxNews, CNN/SSRS and the rest of them to start churning out polls with narrow Biden leads in all the battlegrounds and nationally.
LikeLike
Jason, Bitter says he doesn’t toss polls. The last three polls of PA are Trump +2, +4, and +6. To state he will lose PA without fraud, those polls must be tossed.
Chicon”
Facts not in evidence.
LikeLike
Biden says he got involved in politics because of Cesar Chavez. He has previously claimed he got involved because of civil rights, voting, the environment, Vietnam, redlining, white supremacists, a highway, being a public defender, Bull Connor’s dogs, and more.”
He is evolving give him a break.
LikeLike
“But I expect Quinnipiac, Marist, CBS News, FoxNews, CNN/SSRS and the rest of them to start churning out polls with narrow Biden leads in all the battlegrounds and nationally.”
Yes, and that will influence donors and a certain percentage of low info voters.
Put that on the list of reasons I think Trump will lose.
LikeLike
Where is SDC?
He assured us CA had a great system.
https://redstate.com/benkew/2024/03/20/california-is-still-counting-mail-in-ballots-from-primary-elections-held-over-two-weeks-ago-n2171634
LikeLike
I think Trump could win PA but won’t.
I think Trump will lose because once he was elected he made no effort to expand his base. He still is making no effort. Unless that changes, the fact that Biden sucks will not be enough.
I love that even though Trump received my GE votes in 2016 and 2020 and will receive it again in 2024 that I am tainted by TDS.
LikeLike
I don’t toss polls. I also do not bow in reverence to them. Polls are the least interesting part of HHR and always have been back to 2004. That is why I appreciate all of DW’s work.
LikeLike
Walt got involved in politics when Neanderthals wanted to use his land for hunting mammoths.
LikeLike
Jason, thanks for the answer on Moreno underperforming Trump.
Chicon
LikeLike
Rasmussen Generic ballot:
Republicans 47, Democrats 41
LikeLike
There’s plenty of reasons that current polling ends up changing as election season evolves. There are many events to occur by decision time.
However, current polling DOES say Trump will win. Calling somebody a Trump fanboy for pointing that out is disingenuous. Not that that’s the 1st time.
Chicon
LikeLike
Chicon, last night Nikki Haley and DeSantis and Christie who are not even running anymore got the following number of votes:
Ohio
Haley 162k
DeSantis 38k
Christie 20k
Total % 20 of the R vote
Arizona
Haley 108k
DeSantis 10k
Christie 5k
Total % 22 of the R vote
What percentage of these voters will vote for Trump/Moreno and Trump/Lake in the GE.
LikeLike
Calling somebody a Trump fanboy”
You are not a Trump fanboy?
Who knew?
LikeLike
I think Chicon supports Trump without any reservations. Jan is in the Trump Cult. Both can be true.
LikeLike
“I don’t toss polls. I also do not bow in reverence to them.”
Polls are just one part of the picture. There are historical trends, the measurable direction that states are moving (like Florida where party ID registrations track actual movement of voters).
I do pay particular attention to polls that historically have been spot on. But even here, we have to be careful because pollster could go bad at any time, and who knows when that first bad poll drops. Other pollsters are so discredited I barely look at their numbers because they are so predictable.
LikeLike
Funny how Amoral Scumbag was so insistent that HHR survive (I think he said he was willing to contribute $20) and then disappears.
But if Trump loses, any bets against he will be here to celebrate Biden’s win?
LikeLike
Jan is in the Trump Cult.”
Don’t say that, her darling Pooty Poot will get jealous.
Her first allegiance is to Putin.
I want that to be clear so HHR doesn’t get nuked.
LikeLike
However, current polling DOES say Trump will win. Calling somebody a Trump fanboy for pointing that out is disingenuous”
No, what is disingenuous is thinking Trump can’t lose because there are polls showing him ahead.
LikeLike
Jason says “What percentage of these voters will vote for Trump/Moreno and Trump/Lake in the GE.”
Some.
In 2016, 14M voted for Trump and several million more than that voted for someone else.
In 1980, Reagan got 7.7M primary votes; others got 4.5M.
Chicon
LikeLike
Jason says “No, what is disingenuous is thinking Trump can’t lose because there are polls showing him ahead.”
If you are suggesting I said this, THAT would be disingenuous (and an outright lie), as I’ve said the opposite several times.
Chicon
LikeLike
…….and Bitter has TDS and Bitter will vote for Trump in the GE. Both can be true
LikeLike
Stormy says she accepted hush money from Trump because if she didn’t Trump would have had her killed. LMAO You couldn’t make this sh*t up if you tried. The MSM is beyond desperate. They are reaching further and further by the day. They can’t possibly believe the electorate is that stupid. Like I said – pure desperation. It is getting down right hilarious.
LikeLike
I have repeatedly said Trump was a good President. GFY
LikeLike
I’m surprised RDS didn’t get more votes in his home state of FL – 3% – as at least a symbolic rebuke of DJT. If he’s as popular and such a lost opportunity as a more worthy R nominee, one would think he would have a larger number not willing to let him go. Consequently, in the midst of such a weak RDS showing, why do people continue to downgrade and moronically say DJT can’t win when his numbers are competitive and seemingly growing a bigger more diverse tent of supporters. I also wonder why whenever someone here posts a mild proposition that Trump looks like he might be able to pull out a win, they instantly become the sacrificial lamb of mockery, derision and labeled bring in a Trump cult by their “betters?”
LikeLike
Headline: Mexico Doesn’t Want Their Illegal Aliens Back From Texas
What? I thought they were losing all their brightest and best? That’s what I saw on the news anyway? Why wouldn’t they gladly take back all their brightest and best law abiding citizens?
LikeLike
Bitter you speak with a forked tongue – one side condemning him and the other saying he was a “good” president. The side constantly deriding Trump, however, has far more prominence and frequency in your posting, even in lieu of him winning the R nomination. In a way you’re trying to say “I hate Trump and when he loses I’ll be right.”
LikeLike
The MSM is definitely ratcheting up their hyperbole and inflammatory predictions of how the fascist Trump will preside over the country, should he manage to overcome all the dem electoral 2024 malfeasance. For people not mesmerized by the dem harangue, it’s so obvious everything the Dems are throwing at Trump is, in reality, the very agenda they’ve been complicit with and approving of under a Biden presidency.
LikeLike
https://reason.com/2024/03/19/americas-280-million-mission-in-niger-ends-in-failure/
LikeLike
Bitter you speak with a forked tongue – one side condemning him and the other saying he was a “good” president.”
LOL
I think Trump was a good President because he had some remarkable successes in some areas like judicial appointments, energy independence, deregulation, and taxes.
I don’t think he is a conservative or gives a damm about any conservative principles.
I think he is an opportunist and a Republican and conservative by mere convenience.
I think he is a narcissistic ass who commits ritual political suicide on a regular basis.
I think his trade policy based on stupid tariffs and trade wars is self defeating idiocy that only harms America.
I think his anti-NATO rants are damaging to US interests that only encourage Russia and other enemies. In general, his understanding of geopolitics is way too simplistic and woefully inadequate.
Me speak with forked tongue!
LikeLiked by 1 person
In a way you’re trying to say “I hate Trump and when he loses I’ll be right.”
And what is wrong with that?
If Trump loses as I expect, I will certainly remind everyone here that the R party should have nominated a real conservative like the Golden Calf.
LikeLike
Don’t get me wrong, I think Bitter’s “i hate Trump” rhetoric is stupid.
But his opinion that Trump will lose is not.
LikeLike
Jason – nail find head because you hit it dead on. That would be Trump in a complete nutshell. No further text needed.
LikeLike
BTW that was in reference to the long comment above describing trump
LikeLike
Janzam will be excited, Putin enslaving more Ukranians!
“Russia is illegally consolidating its control over occupied Ukrainian territory by creating a “climate of fear” with practices such as arbitrary detention, killings and torture, the head of a U.N. reporting mission in Ukraine told Reuters.
Speaking before the release of a comprehensive UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) report on the territories Russia occupied in its full-scale invasion since 2022, the mission’s head, Danielle Bell, said Russia’s breaches of rights there were used to terrify local residents into co-operating.”
LikeLike
VictrC
March 20, 2024 at 1:25 pm
BTW that was in reference to the long comment above describing trump”
Dammit, you had to issue a clarification?
You should have let everyone think I always hit the nail on the head.
LikeLike
Fat Fani hoax case is now halted.
Hee Haws judge approved an appeal.
LikeLike
darn. I always do one post too many…and no delete function here 😉
LikeLike
Zzzzzzzzz I don’t need Jason’s approval to hate or like anybody.
LikeLike
Jan – Why does my contempt for Trump bother you? He is still getting my vote. I am sure his massive ego will survive one less member in his cult.
LikeLike
N/T
LikeLike