According to Emerson and YouGov/CBS News:
 | OHIO – Emerson |
| Trump | 55 |
| Biden | 45 |
| Five candidates: | |
| Trump | 47 |
| Biden | 38 |
| Kennedy | 6 |
| Stein | 1 |
| West | 1 |
 | GEORGIA – CBS News/YouGov |
| Trump | 51 |
| Biden | 48 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
84 responses to “Trump up in OH, but Georgia is close”
Have a look see at Gigachad’s stock MSTR this nice morning
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Balaji explains who lies of our political class:
https://x.com/balajis/status/1767620013509505429?s=20
90s: Political Correctness
00s: War on Terror
10s: Wokeness
20s: Proxy War
So, in the 90s opposing the narrative was racist.
In the 2000s it was anti-American.
By the 2010s, once again racist.
And by the 2020s, once again anti-American. It’s steering. Left, right, left, right…
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I like DW’s additions to the way polls are presented.
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Thanks Bitter, I try to be ‘agnostic’ in the way I write up the new polls. Here in this space I don’t mind saying that whenever CBS pairs up with YouGov, its almost never good news for the GOP. But a lead is a lead.
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I would also point out that even you YouGov/CBS has a relatively large sample size at 1126 LVs, their Margin of Error is 3.9. Emerson has a sample of 1000 and the MoE is 3.0. Its because of the YouGov online methodology.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/03/12/nolte-post-sotu-poll-bidens-approval-rating-drops-trumps-lead-grows/
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More new national polls:
Yahoo News: Trump 46, Biden 44
USA Today/Suffolk: Trump 40, Biden 38, Kennedy 9, West 2, Stein 2
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From the OH Emerson poll, basically the same we see everywhere else:
The economy remains the top issue for Ohio voters at 34%, followed by immigration (13%), healthcare (11%), threats to democracy (10%), crime (10%) abortion access (8%), and education (8%).
And the Demented in Chief is running on a 10% and 8%. His task is to turn those two into the 34% and ride it to victory.
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The disconnect between what the MSM saw in the SOTU and actual voters saw is astounding.
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and another one to add to the pile:
Economist/YouGov
Trump 44, Biden 42
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Trump is just not that popular in GA.
He needs to bury the hatchet with Kemp so that Kemp can put his organization to work to get Trump the win.
Don’t get me wrong, I thought Kemp’s behavior in 2020 was disgusting and his failure to follow-up on the voter fraud allegations in Fulton and DeKalb and other counties was unpardonable, but the reality is he is much more popular than Trump.
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Good news
“A federal judge has ruled that Ohio’s strict voter ID law, which includes a photo provision, is constitutional and has rejected a challenge to it.
The ruling tossed out a complaint filed by a Democratic law firm challenging provisions including a photo ID, “drop box restrictions, and tightened deadlines related to absentee and provisional ballots.”
In his ruling, U.S. District Judge Donald Nugent, a Clinton appointee, found that the Ohio photo ID requirement, in particular, “imposes no more than a minimal burden, if any, for the vast majority of voters.”
The report added: “Nugent also rejected the other claims asserted by the Elias Law Group, whose suit filed last year on behalf of groups representing military veterans, teachers, retirees, and the homeless argued the law imposed ‘needless and discriminatory burdens’ on the right to vote. The suit was filed the same day Republican Gov. Mike DeWine signed the legislation over the objections of voting rights, labor, environmental, and civil rights groups that had been pleading for a veto.”
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Me too
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DW – Biden does not need abortion to be the most important issue for all voters to win. He just needs enough voters for whom abortion is the number one issue to be certain to vote for him. Both can be true.
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bitter, well, the 10% is among ALL voters, GOP and Dem, so he has quite a hill to climb it get it higher. He has to convince enough people to not care paying three times as much for everything they need everyday, that’s not as important as an abortion you might need some day.
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You can bet those who think abortion is more important than the economy and inflation can afford to think that. You can also bet 95% of them will never need or have an abortion.
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I think Bitter is right with the caveat that where these people are located is even more important than the overall number.
It doesn’t matter if 99% of voters in rural TN don’t care about abortion, but it does matter if 30% in the Philly suburbs do.
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Single issue voters care about their issue.
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Yeah, I don’t see anything in the Constitution about limiting the purchase of firearms to one a month.
“California’s law prohibiting residents from lawfully purchasing more than one firearm within a 30-day period doesn’t fit with the national tradition of gun ownership, according to U.S. District Judge William Hayes. On Monday, the federal judge sided with Second Amendment groups, along with several FFLs and gun owners who had challenged the gun rationing law in federal court, granting summary judgement in their favor in Nguyen v. Bonta.”
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Most of the 10% that think abortion is the most important issue are already committed hard-core leftists who will vote Dem regardless. But its a much heavier lift to get independents to sign on for willingness to give Biden another four years so food prices can triple on top of the tripling this last four years.
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Abortion is an emotional issue with women, which, IMO despite those low percentages, will grab enough attention to sway election numbers. Anecdotally, we have a friend – a teacher with 2 young children – who, out of the blue, said she wouldn’t have her children live in a state that didn’t allow abortion. Her adamance regarding this issue really surprised us. She has, otherwise, seemed apolitical on most policies. But, abortion appeared to be her red line she didn’t want crossed.
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Jan, tell your friend she isn’t good at math.
$400 a week for food compounded annually, instead of $125 a week, amounts to a LOT more than the price of one road trip to an abortion providing state.
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Hey, DW, like I said her statement seemed completely out of character, surprising us. She’s otherwise a pragmatic, family-oriented working Mom. Go figure why she thinks this way. But, like sleeper cells, there are opinions out there that are difficult to map and understand.
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I had a very long discussion about abortion with a friend I have known for years. She is very liberal. It was intense but respectful. She does not believe in any restrictions. She also said she supported the right of her daughter to have an abortion. I asked her is she would take her daughter to a clinic to abort her own grandchild. She said yes.
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Bitter, I know of a woman who desperately begged her step-daughter to kill her unborn daughter. But despite all the begging and pleading, the baby was not aborted, was born healthy, and now the same woman dotes over step-grand-daughter with all sorts of affection. People are weird.
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BOOM
New national poll
Trump 49
Biden 41
Yeah, that SOTU speech was a real winner!
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_replace_biden_trump_leads_newsom_michelle_obama
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Good, about time Ukraine gave Russia a taste of its own medicine.
“Ukraine launched overnight drone attacks on three oil refineries deep inside Russia, a Ukrainian defense source told CNN on Wednesday, as Kyiv intensifies its cross-border strikes days before President Vladimir Putin’s anticipated re-election.
The source told CNN that Ukraine is “implementing a well-planned strategy to decrease Russian economic potential.”
The three Russian oil refineries targeted are in the cities of Ryazan, about 130 miles southeast of Moscow; Kstovo, in the Nizhny Novgorod region, nearly 300 miles east of the capital; and Kirishi in Russia’s northwest. The trio of facilities are among Russia’s largest refineries, the source said.
It marked the second consecutive day of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy sites, and the locations targeted represent a spate of attacks well within Russia’s territory.
“Our goal is to take away our enemy’s resources and decrease the flow of oil money and fuel Russia is using directly on the war,” the source told CNN.
They came after a chaotic day on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border, during which pro-Ukrainian groups of Russian fighters said they launched cross-border attacks and claimed to have gained control of the village of Tyotkino in Russia’s Kursk region.
The village remained under fire “all day” on Wednesday, the regional governor said.”
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That poll showing Newsome and Mooch also losing supports my theory that Biden can’t be replaced because the Dems have nobody better.
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I saw that jason, was going to mention that. Totally agree that those two are non-starters. Which is why they may have to resort to a dark horse and try to craft the candidate into something. Not ideal either. But neither is running a dementia patient.
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Dark Horse sounds good until you give it a name. There are no dark horses or white horses better than Biden. If you believed there is, you would name him/her. The fact you keep talking about a fictional Black Horse means you are just like the Dems in the sense you can’t come up with a name either.
And again, I agree the Dems are evil enough to pull a coup on Biden, that is not the issue.
The issue is they have no Dark Horse to field.
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And we are long past “crafting a candidate” phase. That takes time the Dems don’t have.
If Biden dropped dead tomorrow, Kamala would be the candidate by default, even if the Dems wanted to leap frog over her there is no time to pull that off. She would be President, she would be the candidate, game over.
The Dems have Biden. Or Kamala. Or Newsome.
Maybe you could convince Kamala to bow out for Newsome though I doubt it. Certainly she won’t bow out for some obscure candidate yet to be crafted.
Look how the MSM came out with the same talking points on SOTU and the Hur Report.
It is Biden win or lose.
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Yellen is on TV now talking up the economy.
Fortunately she looks like an old hag trying to sell you insurance.
The Dem senators are asking her leading and deceptive questions so she can nod and sau absolutely senator.
Isn’t inflation moderating? Yes (no mention if something cost $ 1 and there is 11% inflation one year and 10% the next it now costs $1.22. If inflation “moderates” to 5% it will cost $1.28) That 28% increase is not coming back.
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I am not saying that the Dems would do better with a Dark Horse. I agree their bench is really thin. But they might just exchange a certain defeat for something unknown.
If a football team is trailing by 4 points with 1 play left on the clock and they have the ball, but sixty yards to the end zone, they throw a hail-mary pass to see what happens. They don’t call for a fullback to run up the middle.
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They won’t know its certain defeat, if that is the case, until after the convention.
There is still a lot up in the air, they are banking on at least one conviction.
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GA judge throws out some of the charges against Trump.
Someone do a welfare check on JeffP and assure him there are still plenty of bogus charges left.
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I didn’t realize that Judge McAfee was a Republican. Supposedly his ruling was written as a rough draft before two liberal candidates joined the race as his primary opponents. He has said their candidacy will not affect his decision on the Willis case. We’ll see….
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Eight more sections of fence power sprayed in three hours.
I think it had more 8-foot fence sections.
Thyroid scan at 3 p.m. so I have to quit and clean up. Maybe eat something.
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Does anyone know when the first of the planeloads and shiploads of 5 million Haitians are due to arrive in the U.S. for sanctuary and absorption into U.S. society?
Will there be enough time to get them registered to vote for the late primaries and in November?
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retllaw, from what I heard on a morning broadcast a flotilla of Haitians is imminent.
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The US should send troops to Haiti to restore order and prevent a mass exodus. We have done this several times before, I think Clinton was the last. About 5000 should do it to secure the airport, presidential palace and other areas to allow for the Haitian government to regroup and fight the gangs.
But Biden won’t do it because he wants the exodus.
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Hey Walt, are you attending the Republican retreat at the Greenbriar?
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Its hard to believe, but it was 100 years ago when British runners Harold Abrahams and Eric Liddel (the flying Scot) were in their final months of training for the 1924 Olympic Games in Paris. Their victories became the inspiration for the 1981 film Chariots of Fire.
Walt was in the film, playing himself, the man who fired the gun to start the 100 Meter final.
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Ooof. This one left a mark.
Biden Job Approval
March 9-12
1,324 RV
Civiqs (D)
Daily Kos
Approve 37%
Disapprove 56%
-19 on Job approval from a Dem polling firm doing the bidding of Daily Kos.
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The Ga judge has tossed some counts in the far Fani hoax case. This was a separate motion filed before fat fani got busted.
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I thought the clintune foundation cured haitis problems.
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Walt has not missed an Olympics since 776 BC.
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Well, despite the rumors, we know he didn’t run the first Marathon because that guy collapsed and died right afterwards.
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Putin threatens nuclear war again.
Someone order JeffP a new set of underwear.
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“IDF soldiers sentenced to 20 days in prison for making hot dogs on Shabbat The pair were caught by a third soldier who entered the kitchen and saw them committing the act.”
I agree with this sentence. If you are going into the kitchen at least cook a nice ribeye, not hot dogs.
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Walt would have gotten there first but he was lazy back then. That is why he was cursed to forever have to do endless chores by Zeus.
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sometimes i wonder if all the bad polls and approval ratings are just setting us up so the msm can say look, hes rising in the polls once we hit sept/oct timeframe
btw what is everyone’s take on RFK jr and his VP announcement. Does having Rogers on the ticket help him with average joe’s in WI, PA, GA, etc who will be, oh man…I voted for the NFL MVP
Seems like he’s trying to make a splash with his VP candidate. Part of me still thinks he picks off more R votes than D…except that the suburban moms who don’t like Trump, won’t like him because of his anti-vax stance.
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Vic, here is the data from RCP on who gets hurt more by the third party candidates…RCP averages:
NV: Trump vs. Biden, Trump +7.7, Five candidates, Trump +8.5
NC: Trump vs. Biden, Trump +5.5, Five candidates, Trump +7.7
AZ: Trump vs. Biden, Trump +5.5, Five candidates, Trump +7.5
GA: Trump vs. Biden, Trump +5.7, Five candidates, Trump +7.4
MI: Trump vs. Biden, Trump +3.6, Five candidates, Trump +3.0
WI: Trump vs. Biden, Trump +1.0, Five candidates, Trump +4.0
PA: Trump vs. Biden, Biden +0.8, Five candidates, Trump +4.0
CA: Trump vs. Biden, Biden +21, Five candidates, Biden +16
The key to all of this is Trump’s base is the most rock solid. If Trump gets 47% against Biden, who gets 43% in a battleground state, then you add the other three, Trump might drop to 40%, but Biden would drop to 33%. Then if you theoretically could add 100 more candidates, Trump would still have 40%, but the 33% of Biden would only further splinter.
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I agree with you for the most part, unless Kennedy does something like choose an Aaron Rogers. Im telling you, some guys who would vote for Trump might pull the lever for the NFL QB…just saying. I doubt its enough to make a difference, but Libs HATE Rodgers
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hard to say Vic. In Wisconsin it might help. But then again Rodgers abandoned the Packers for the Jets.
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yeah in WI it might make a big difference, and that’s the problem, though TBH I can’t see Rodgers walking away from $40M a year, unless Kennedy tells him he doesn’t need to campaign with him…just do some zoom videos, etc during the city.
I hear his “short list” is Jesse Ventura (LOL don’t think he takes away votes from Trump), Rodgers, Tulsi Gabbard (again, doesn’t hurt Republicans and don’t think she’d do it), Rand Paul (hahahahah yes…please. Take this psycho terrorist loving anti-semite) and Andrew Yang.
Yang would pull wayyyyy more votes from Biden, and probably not one from Trump.
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Yes Rand Paul….puhhhhhleeeze….
Yeah, Trump will lose Bunu’s vote but we can live with that.
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If he picks Rodgers he is admitting his candidacy is a joke.
All the others have some rationale and even political experience.
Yang would be the best as far as attracting Dem votes.
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The problem with DW’s post above is that almost universally third party candidates poll better than what they actually get.
This is because in the end people decide not to waste their votes.
So I really doubt Trump would benefit as much as shown.
Plus the people who give up on RFK are more likely to vote for Biden, not Trump. Same with Stein and West.
Trump better plan on winning on his own.
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“California mom is accused of orchestrating a nationwide shoplifting scheme that stole millions of dollars worth of makeup and clothing from hundreds of stores for more than a decade, according to the California Department of Justice.
According to a complaint filed by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, more than $300,000 worth of makeup and other products were found in Michelle Mack, 53, and Kenneth Mack’s shared Bonsall home when a search warrant was served on Dec. 6, 2023.
Mack allegedly paid for air fares, hotels and car rental costs for up to a dozen women who would go out and steal goods before sending them to Mack’s home. Mack would then allegedly sell the stolen goods at a discount on her Amazon Marketplace storefront.
Her group, which investigators have called the ‘California Girls’, operated in more than a dozen states around the country, targeting outlets including LensCrafters, Sephora and at least 231 Ulta stores, according to NBC San Diego.”
She was doing this for 10 years. Probably could have stopped 2 years ago and retired rich, she stole about $8 million. But I guess she couldn’t stop.
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no sotu bounce for demented.
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Here come the Biden ads in PA. Everything’s great and he will protect abortion. Almost 8 more months of this.
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Just saw an ad put out by the $50 million dollar anti-Trump group. It featured a middle aged disgruntled former WI Trump voter who stated, although he voted for Trump in 2020, he became disgusted by the insurrection he led in 1/6 and felt the document case should basically put him away. So, what this group is emphasizing is insurrection and indictment legitimacy.
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8 long months of political trash talk…….
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Jan – Do you live in California? If so, you are looking to torture yourself. You should be in a pretty ad-free zone.
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Bitter, I do live in CA. I saw that ad streamed on-line. What does bother me in CA is Newsom and the dem’s constant legislative nightmares that keep coming in the way of obscene spending and policy creations. Also, the CA Franchise Tax Board loves to send people letters saying they owe more tax money when they don’t.
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Trump isn’t winning Michigan or Pennsylvania so don’t get your hopes up. He needs Wisconsin BAD and flip AZ and GA.
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I’ll take things that never happened for $1000 please
“We had a really difficult professor,” Biden recalled. “He called on me to discuss a case, you know, in your first torts class. And I had never read the case, and I stood up and I spoke for 10 minutes. The whole class stood up, started clapping.”
Biden was 76th in a class of 85, I doubt he got any standing ovations speaking about a case he didn’t read.
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I heard that in 2026.
In 2020 despite VBM shenanigans and fraud Trump only lost PA by 80k votes out of 7 million + cast.
I wouldn’t make any definitive statements about PA.
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Huh, how about I heard that in 2016.
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I am surprised JeffP showed up.
I thought he was either on suicide watch because some of his treasured bogus charges against Trump were thrown out or he was hiding in his basement and washing his underwear because Putin threatened nukes again.
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In 3 years in law school, nobody ever clapped based upon discussing a case. Professors would know in 30 seconds if you did not read the case.
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JeffP
March 13, 2024 at 8:33 pm
Trump isn’t winning Michigan or Pennsylvania so don’t get your hopes up.
I don’t know what Jeff is smoking but, the last 5 polls I have seen of Michigan. Trump is leading in 4 of them and tied in the other. Trump is looking better now then he did in 2016 when he won Michigan.
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Bitter – no kidding. Where I went to school you were allowed to take up to two graduate classes and I took them at the law school. The professors were good friends with RBG and took us to have lunch with her. Needless to say the course was GRUELING. Definitely no applause.
I applaud you for surviving three years!!!!
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Polls LOL
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GFY
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Do you not realize the vote by mail law changes that were enacted?
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what laws were enacted in MI. I definitely don’t know
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https://www.michiganvoting.org/permanent-mail-ballot-list
No chain of custody and a corrupt Wayne County equals…they will be filling out ballots for weeks.
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ugh
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Even though the work of DW is outstanding and noble. The RCP average is still only just under 2 last I saw 1.7 with over 7 months left…to an almost dead Biden. Way too early to be confident in anything let alone Michigan for Gods sake and RFK Jr. could end up hurting Trump more than Biden.
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You can throw Philly, Maricopa, Fulton, Milwaukee, Clark in the mix too.
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Yes Jason I do believe Putin would resort to tactical nukes over Ukraine. I have little doubt. Yes I do believe the EU is intimated by Putins threats. There is serious concern if the west also has the capacity to stop a nuclear attack from Russia or China with their hypersonic nuclear weapons advancements.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/hypersonic-missiles-america-military-behind-936a3128#
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Ss of lsst night at 7:30:
30 sections of fence, plus the 8-foot gate, power washed on BOTH sides and 7 more sections, plus the 4-foot gate, power washed on one side.
Plus, 17 fence section sides have been applied with cleaner and washed down.
Sadly, nothing else got done today since I was playing bridge until 3 p.m.
After I take a break, I will hit er again.
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17 fence section sides have been applied with cleaner and washed down.
PLUS both sides of the 8-foot gate.
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