According to new polls from Emerson:
| Emerson – NEVADA | |
| Trump 46 | Trump 44 |
| Biden 40 | Biden 34 |
| Kennedy 6 | |
| West 1 | |
| Stein 1 |
| Emerson – ARIZONA | |
| Trump 46 | Trump 43 |
| Biden 43 | Biden 37 |
| Kennedy 8 | |
| West 1 | |
| Stein 1 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
42 responses to “Trump leads in NEVADA and ARIZONA”
First. I did not post this one so Vic can suck it.
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Both of these polls by Emerson show improvement for Trump over their last polls of these states. The Nevada number is particularly encouraging as it confirms the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing similar numbers.
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Arizona is concerning with all the fraud
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The thread yesterday featured posts from those trying to analyze the mind of the typical Paul-bot. I want to encourage you to watch the Foyle’s War episode called The White Feather. Its a great film, and it perfectly illustrates the mindset of the Ron Paul supporter, albeit in the context of WWII on the southern coast of England. There was this group called “The Friday Club” and they were known for:
Sound familiar?
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Other polls of AZ show a larger lead for Trump. I am a little concerned about AZ, but as I said, the poll here is an improvement for Trump compared to Emerson’s prior poll.
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headline: Dr. Phil Blasts Those Pushing Transgenderism Onto Children
I keep saying this is a WINNING issue for the GOP. Teach the American people that NO SURGEON CAN MAKE A BOY INTO A GIRL, and to mutilate the boy’s genitals is an evil that barbarian enemies used to do to the boys of conquered peoples so as to raise them as slaves and genocide the people group.
Hang this issue around the neck of Democrats and save the lives of Children, and in so doing, win the election in the fall.
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DW- I agree that this issue is important. However, I respectfully think it is approximately 63rd on the Issue List for many voters. Anybody crazy enough to support mutilating children is going to vote Dem. People opposed are voting GOP. Independents are likely thinking “gross but what about issues 1-62?”
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Bitter, sure, I am not saying to run exclusively on this…but I did see the powerful impact on suburban moms in northern Virginia who reacted at the abuse of children in the public school there. That reaction is why we have Gov. Youngkin instead of Gov. McAwful.
So run ads in targeted areas that stress this issue, and it bolsters the GOP’s chances. But of course, issues of Economy, foreign policy, etc., will be a centerpiece of the GOP’s platform.
The left is of course all in on abortions and threats to democracy (i.e. Trump and Jan 6 insurrection).
But look at the new Arizona poll, and the question of the most important issue:
Immigration 31%
Economy 20%
Housing affordability 11%
Education 10%
ABORTION ACCESS 7%
Healthcare 6%
Threats to Democracy 6%
Crime 5%
Something else 4%
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Nevada is similar:
Economy 25.8%
Immigration 14.2%
Education 13.7%
Housing Affordability 13%
Healthcare 10.9%
Crime 10%
Threats to Democracy 5.1%
Something else 4.2%
Abortion access 3.1%
That has to personally hurt the gals on The View, to think that people could even say “Something else” is more important than Abortion Access.
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It is interesting to see what people care about this cycle. Those same issues seem to be steady from state to state. Abortion is way down the list on most lists, which begs to ask the question – will abortion be the same winning issue that is was in the mid-terms in 2022.
Dems were able to get abortion legislation on ballots in a number of states, and the freshness of the ruling was on the minds of many. This cycle, outside of blue states, Abortion is no where near the top of the list of things on people’s minds. Especially in states like GA, NV, AZ. I think Michigan might be one place where it plays, because that is the issue most important to “Gretchen”…so that is one place I might think it might play
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The state of Illinois is the abuser of children, according to this new headline:
Illinois Bill Redefines “Abused Child” To Include Kids Whose Parents Object To Abortion, Transgender Hormones And Surgeries
God help us. We have reached the point where a parent is considered an abuser of their boy if the parent tries to stop an evil surgeon from lopping off the genitals of their boy.
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I do not believe abortion is a top issue for most voters. I think it is THE issue for some voters and could determine the outcome in close states. Both can be true.
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The economic outlook is bad and those polls show it. Inflation and borders are being picked up as top issues.
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President Trump appears to have done well in the South Carolina town hall. He picked up most of the undecided participants.
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Ok, since there are crickets right now I would like to share this article from the Claremont institute which I think is very astute.
It discusses what is paramount to most in this election, and how the left has veered away from their core constituents and their needs to cater to the urban, well off, college educated. It begins:
“Most political coverage in America revolves around personalities, stratagems, and the cultural issues that appeal to the activist class in both parties. Yet the real determinant in 2024 will not be abortion, “systemic racism,” gender fluidity, or climate change, but deepening class divides. Once you analyze voters by class, and how they make their livings, racial categories—so critical among progressives today—recede in relevance.
Politicians in both parties pay lip service to working- and middle-class interests, but generally ignore their major concerns. In poll after poll most voters identify their main concerns as inflation, lack of economic opportunity, health care, and issues such as crime and immigration that directly affect their jobs, their earnings, and their families. Relatively few, well under 5 percent, mention such things as the environment, racism, abortion, or even foreign policy, notes Gallup, a finding confirmed in recent Pew surveys.”
I would encourage reading the article. It makes some very valid and salient points about the growing divide, and who is better to address the needs of most.
https://americanmind.org/salvo/class-of-24/
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Here are some more Presidential polls from the Hill, but without Biden at the top of the ticket
Arizona:
Trump 47, Newsom 34
Trump 48, Harris 40
Nevada:
Trump 49, Newsom 32
Trump 48, Harris 39
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General Election polls from Marquette. It should be noted, in this same poll, Marquette has Haley up by 16% over Biden…58% – 42%. That should tell you all you need to know about their organization.
General Election: Marquette
Trump 51%
Biden 49
Trump 42%
Biden 39%
Kennedy 15%
West 3%
Stein 2%
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and finally, some Senate polls:
Arizona Senate – Lake vs. Gallego vs. Sinema The Hill/Emerson
Gallego 36 (D)%, Lake (R) 30%, Sinema (I) 21%
Arizona Senate – Lake vs. Gallego vs. Sinema Noble Predictive Insights
Gallego 34%, Lake 31%, Sinema 23%
Nevada Senate – Brown vs. Rosen The Hill/Emerson
Rosen (D) 40 %, Brown (R) 38%
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A Ukrainian HIMARS strike wiped out at least 60 Russian troops who were gathered en masse in an open field this week as they flouted a key wartime rule that Russia has repeatedly ignored throughout the war, according to reports and video footage.
The Russian battalion congregated at a training area near the village of Trudovske in occupied eastern Ukraine when the two missiles struck, The BBC reported Wednesday.”
Looks like western weapons being put to good use…
Let’s see if Janzam admonishes Putin for sending troops to die trying to occupy land that is not theirs.
Nah, she only has a problem with Ukrainians dying to defend their homeland from the invaders.
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Vic – excellent article. To me it explains the “uniparty” that looks down their collective nose at the people who actually make the country run. They’re supposed to just bend over and take whatever they’re given. Until Trump, they’ve heard nobody since Reagan address their lives and concerns.
To the country club Republicans and the Democrats, the government is the solution; to the classes described in the article, there is no difference between them. To the regular Joe’s, the government is the problem and the want it far less involved in their lives.
There is a great political realignment happening in the last 8-10 years. Many of the Republican establishment either don’t believe this or are actively try to prevent the inevitable.
Chicon
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It’s good that Russians keep screwing up to the benefit of Ukraine. War is a political exercise with many variables; allies are generally fluid. Both can be true.
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It feels to me that not all of the anonymous posts are spewed out by Bunu.
Who is responsible for the others? My chief suspects are NYCMike, TG, and LisaB. Who ya’ got?
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interesting. You are correct in that they are all not Bunu. I suspect maybe Tina on a couple, I think Robbie might also be one…they seem to have his stamp on them. Don’t know about NYC. I wish they all would just come back so we could continue our debates…
BTW when are we going to start frisking the polls. I started to write one yesterday on a Senate poll, but it doesn’t seem like anyone else is doing it. Polaris, where are you???
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I do not know any Republicans who belong to country clubs. It must be a Chicago thing. I do know Democrats who belong to country clubs.
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I don’t know how people post anonymously. The rest of us put in handles to get in to post.
I doubt it is Tgca as he would never stop at less than 40 posts per thread. lisab only used lower case letters and I do not miss her. NYC? Maybe but it is not provable.
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Some of the Kool Kidz don’t like fisking polls, and will make fun of you for doing so. I think it is fun, so fire away!
Robbie is a solid guess, but I think his narcissism would require his name be attached to his brilliance. One of the anonymous posters said he’d previously communicated with Bitter outside of HHR. Maybe he could help narrow it down.
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Good point on Tgca.
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I am in contact with one of the Anonymous posters but they are not ready to return or be identified. I will respect the privacy of the negotiations to return. It is not Tina or Jan.
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Bitter, so they called you up after all?
I do miss MD, his biting commentary was always welcome.
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Its laughable that it even had to be a question over whether or not non-citizens could vote…
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2024/02/22/rnc-wins-ny-lawsuit-to-prevent-noncitizens-from-voting-n2635590
…but I guess it shouldn’t be given we are in a society that sees no problem at all with pressuring a young boy to have his private parts lopped off.
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Always nice to see the left waste money:
Headline: More Than 5,200 Biden Donors Are Funding Nikki Haley’s Campaign
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Tgca was the tofu eater with the fish tank, right?
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Yes
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E-mail
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Damn. At least Trump funding Democrats for decades got them elected.
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limited access again until Monday
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HAve fun DW wherever you are going and doing!
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Breaking News – No poll threads until Monday.
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Vivek Ramaswamy Criticizes Koch Network For Funding Haley
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/vivek-ramaswamy-criticizes-koch-network-funding-haley
He speculated that Ms. Haley’s donors are “preparing for a No Labels ticket that then takes votes from Donald Trump away in that general election.”
He went further in a press conference afterwards, criticizing the billionaire Koch family’s libertarian policy advocacy group, Americans for Prosperity (AFP) Action, for backing Ms. Haley and opposing President Trump.
“I think it’s very disappointing that that network has thrown its support behind a candidate who does not even stand for the principles that they claim to embody,” he told The Epoch Times.
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we can not end the night with a Pauliata propaganda post so here’s something better:
“Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means.”
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Kari Lake is the MAGA Stacy Abrams. She will lose in a two or three way. No pun intended.
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Jack Posobiec at CPAC: “Welcome to the end of democracy. We are here to overthrow it completely. We didn’t get all the way there on Jan. 6, but we will endeavor to get rid of it.”
https://x.com/accountablegop/status/1760761957437599856?s=61&t=uLyKpWBwDwyCK292uUHCSA
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