The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.6 / 55.6-14.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.5 / 52.1-6.6

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

MEOHTXMIGANHMNNC
Gap+2.0+1.4+1.2+1.8+1.4+4.5+7.0+12.6
Count5051524847464544

I do not think Democrats are stupid enough to throw away their vote on RFK, Jr. Discuss.

Bitterlaw

4 responses to “I do not think Democrats are stupid enough to throw away their vote on RFK, Jr. Discuss.”

  1. DW Avatar
    DW

    First. And exactly why I don’t include the misfits, as I call them, in the polling aggregator. I only include the Trump vs Biden numbers.

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  2. themohel Avatar
    themohel

    DW – thanks for all the polling work, it’s much appreciated.

    On the misfits; historically they don’t matter, until they do. I think they’re only relevant in state polls, in states that will likely be extremely close. Wisconsin is an example. There are true believers there (some might call them deadenders) willing to send a message while throw away a vote. How many? Maybe 1-3%. Not enough to matter in most states, but maybe there.

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  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    I have said all along that Stein MATTERS in Wisconsin. Absolutely she get enough of the vote to throw the state to Trump. If it looks like a stampede nationally, a blowout win for Trump, then Stein could get 5% in Wisconsin.

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  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    And late yesterday, a sudden rush of national polls showing Trump doing well:

    Rasmussen: Trump 47/Biden 41

    HarrisX: Trump 47 / Biden 37

    Morning Consult: Trump 45/Biden 41

    But I still believe in the end these sorts of polls is why Dems will replace Biden at the convention.

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