According to Emerson and EPIC/MRA:
| Emerson – GEORGIA | |
| Trump 48 | Trump 45 |
| Biden 42 | Biden 36 |
| Kennedy 6 | |
| West 1 | |
| Stein 1 |
| Emerson – NORTH CAROLINA | |
| Trump 47 | Trump 46 |
| Biden 44 | Biden 37 |
| Kennedy 5 | |
| West 1 | |
| Stein 1 |
| EPIC-MRA – MICHIGAN |
| Trump 45 |
| Biden 41 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
55 responses to “Advantage Trump in GA, NC, and MI”
South Caroline stands with TRUMP!
https://x.com/MAGADevilDog/status/1760282318764478966?s=20
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Florida primary poll
https://twitter.com/WarlordDilley/status/1760100848275718179?s=20
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97% Trump to 3% Neocon Haley
The public is starting to realize that “make America normal” slogan actually means new “normal wars”, “normal American death”, genocide for the Palestinians and war with Iran.
She’s 100% clown candidate
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I am a big believer in Reagan’s 11th commandment. Haley might not be my first or second pick, but if the GOP tent isn’t big enough, it will never win anything again. I am thrilled that Hogan is running for senate in Maryland. I am sure Dave Wissing is too. That doesn’t mean that I would want him for my senator if I lived in Alabama, I would want someone more conservative.
I know that these things are really not that hard to figure out. So when I see someone (Tina, I know you are out there) labelling everyone and anyone a RINO, I have to question the motives. Long-time Republican, Senator Castle of Delaware can attest to the stupidity of RINO hunting in deep blue states.
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”Palestinian” population 1948 – 1.4m
”Palestinian” population 2022 – 14M+
growth rates 2022
”Palestine” – Gaza 4.5% West Bank 3.8%
Israel – 1.8%
please point out the “genocide” in an area with 1000% population increase and annual growth rate at the highest in the Arab world.
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The think tanks are obsessed with “controlling” the population no doubt
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adding to your polls DW – interesting to see that Biden does significantly better than those we think could replace him.
Georgia: Trump vs. Newsom.
The Hill/Emerson
Trump 51. Newsom 32
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris
The Hill/Emerson
Trump 51 Harris 41
North Carolina: Trump vs. Newsom
The Hill/Emerson
Trump 49 Newsom 34
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
Trump 50 Harris 41
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Hi Vic,
I saw that and was going to mention it. Probably much of this is just unfamiliarity/lack of name recognition. Even Harris is a name unknown to some voters. Those numbers would no doubt tighten if any of these became the Biden replacement. But time will tell.
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We used to say that JulStol would not be happy until there were 99 Democrats and 1 True Conservative in the Senate. Tina also shares that approach. She is not against politicized DOJ and FBI. She is angry the GOP did not do it first.
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The left will build a woke empire, and then conservatives will fight to death preserve it. That’s the general strategy of the GOP.
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Wasn’t JulStol the one who, as an elected member of the local school board struck up a romantic relationship with a student in the same school?
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Ragnar Research Partners – MARYLAND senate
Jan. 30-Feb. 1
600 LV
Trone (D) 33%
Hogan (R) 49%
Alsobrooks (D) 29%
Hogan (R) 52%
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oyh wow Justol – yes, he did. He was definitely out there on a lot of things LOL. I remember he was my friend on facebook…I check it once/twice a year now, so don’t know if he still is
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I think he was on a dating App with high school students. He tried to claim he was persecuted for being conservative rather than creepy.
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I still remember the Delaware Senate race where True Conservative Christine O’Donnell ran with the slogan, “I’m not a witch. I’m you.”
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LOL, how many seats did we throw away that election cycle. Without even trying I can think of DE, MO and IN at least
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Speaking of Senate races, this just came out in Michigan. Don’t know if you saw it yet DW…BUT, if this is true, with Maryland now being in play because of Hogan, the Senate doesn’t just look good, we could have up to 54 seats.
General Election – Senate Michigan
EPIC-MRAMichigan
Slotkin (D) 39%
Rogers (R) 38%
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And Bitter we had many posters on the old HHR who were THRILLED that O’Donnell ousted Castle in the primary. They were absolutely thrilled to hand the Delaware senate seat to the now Democrat senator for life. They sent a message and the Dems have been laughing ever since.
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I know. Instead of supporting a candidate who had never lost a race in Delaware, they went with a woman accused of witch craft. What could go wrong?
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Wes never forgot those wasted opportunities.
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More Maryland Senate Polls (Feb 15)
Emerson CollegeMaryland
Hogan (r) 44%
Alsobrooks (D) 37%
Hogan (r) 42%
Trone (D) 42%
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Hogan will be running with a Presidential race above him on the ticket. He’ll need a massive amount of ticket splitting to win, if he’s the nominee.
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Bitter raised a great question on the last thread, and I hated to stop the discussion with the new thread. But the impact of third party candidates may become a huge issue in this election. Or they may melt away into irrelevance.
Here is a look back, to help us look ahead, at the percentage the misfits might get:
2020: 1.9% (Libertarian: Jorgensen 1.18; Green: Hawkins: 0.26; Others 0.41) Neither were well-known or well-funded.
2016: 5.73% (Libertarian: Johnson 3.28; Green: Stein 1.07; Ind: McMullin 0.54; Others 0.84) Johnson and Stein made a splash, as did McMullin in Utah.
2012: 1.74% (Libertarian: Johnson 1.0; Green: Stein 0.4; Others 0.4)
2008: 1.42% (Ind: Nader 0.56; Libertarian: Barr 0.4; Const: Baldwin 0.15; Green: McKinney 0.12; Others 0.18)
2004: 1.0% (Ind. Nader 0.38; Libertarian: Badnarik 0.32; Const: Peroutka 0.12; Green: Cobb 0.10; Others 0.08)
2000: 3.76% (Green: Nader 2.74; Reform: Buchanan 0.43; Libertarian: Browne 0.36; Const: Phillips 0.09; Natural Law: Hagelin 0.08; Others 0.05)
Its hard to pick up on any specific indicators, because its likely a mix of money spent, dissatisfaction with the two major party options, and individual state issues. But the floor looks like 1.0% and the high 5.73% in 2016. The 2016 election featured two candidates that were not at all well liked among major segments of the electorate, and there was a mood to look elsewhere.
The situation is very likely to be similar in 2024 as Biden is way down in both favorability and job approval. Trump is 8 years older than he was in 2016, and just as unlikeable as he was then, if not more. Biden can barely pronounce his own name and has blown up our country, foreign policy, and literally everything he touches.
And so I can absolutely see other options picking up over 6% of the vote if they are well-funded and the mood is against the two major party options.
Maybe something like this:
Kennedy 4%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Others 0.5%
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Part of what influenced 2016 was the fact that the media relentlessly beat their drums that Hillary absolutely would win in a landslide. Remember how the only relevant question was over whether or not Hillary should cancel the victory fireworks, so as not to jinx it.
This certainty ironically led to many feeling free to vote their hearts and unwittingly hand the election to Trump.
I don’t see the media making that mistake again.
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DW – I do not think that that third-party candidates will be a factor in close states. Dems are not that stupid. However, I could see them as a factor in the national popular vote.
A Dem in California and an anti-vax Republican in Alabama could both decide to vote for RFK, Jr. since the outcome in each state is already certain.
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Bitter, I agree that Dems are not going to do that. I am thinking more about the independent voter who always votes and always splits their ticket. They won’t care if they are in a close state or not, and they might well recoil at seeing Trump and Biden on the ballot and then mark Kennedy.
Stein will absolutely grab some fruitcake voters in Madison, WI.
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In Madison, WI, there will literally be Green party kooks who will leave the voting booth, go outside, get down on the ground, and kiss the dirt while shedding tears, and they will say to the earth, “I saved you!”
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Your friends at Quinnipiac just couldn’t stand it any longer, seeing all these national polls showing Trump ahead 4 to 10 points, and so they just put out their rescue poll:
Biden 49
Trump 45
Then with the misfits:
Biden 38 / Trump 37 / Kennedy 15 / Stein 3 / West 3
That last set of numbers tells you all you need to know about their sample. West and Stein are not going to get 3 each. This means Quinnipiac over sampled university towns, and extremely left-wing slices of the electorate. Kennedy at 15 means they way over sampled independents, and that’s how they got Biden up 4 in a direct matchup against Trump.
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CBDC’s before the election.
These are essentially a renewal of the gosbank the Soviet Union ran where instead of private banks everyone just has an account with the central bank that way everything can be controlled (and Biden can enforce DEI agenda on all americans)
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/american-totalitarian-crypto-dollar-may-come-election
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“Stein will absolutely grab some fruitcake voters in Madison, WI.”
Defund that campus now
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And here is the other evidence that Quinnipiac didn’t sample the electorate as it is:
Haley 46, Biden 43
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Interesting. Haley could win even with Jason, Tina and Jan helping Biden.
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Only 3% of Floridians support her as the candidate though.
Trump was right to fire these RNC chairman.
They are corrupt as hell and would have plotted to replace him on a dime at the convention.
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https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1760391752303698296
ISRAELI MINISTER TO ARAB ISRAELI MINISTER: YOU WILL DIE! Hanoch Milbitsky: “You will die, your children will die, your grandchildren will die, there won’t be a Palestinian state, there will never be.”
(keep in mind Abbas in the West Bank has nothing to do with any of these recent events)
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https://x.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1760417292116975692?s=20
BREAKING REPORT: Judge Overseeing Trump’s Georgia Case DONATED TO FANI WILLIS CAMPAIGN Prior To Appointment.. WILL FANI GET SPECIAL TREATMENT?
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https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1760144937361043562?s=20
Byron Donalds…ngl I kinda like the guy though haven’t paid enough attention to him. might be a livable VP
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And just for context, the final EPIC-MRA poll of MI in 2020 was Biden 48 / Trump 41. And their poll early in the year 2020 was Biden 50 / Trump 44.
So they are not a GOP cheerleader by any stretch.
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and in 2016 the final EPIC-MRA poll of MI was Hillary 42/Trump 38.
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At Morning Consult’s web page: “Could Taylor Swift Help Biden Win Re-Election? Yes, According to the Data”
LOL, they appear to be serious about this.
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I highly DeSantis is on the actual list. it’s just fun to see him grovel like Romney did in 2016.
His political career is cooked.
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Massive protest in Tel Aviv against bibi
Get rid of this A hole ffs
https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1760409056995319925?s=20
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the new HHR- all bunu, all the time
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Wow. Young women voting for a Democrat. Shocking.
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ii wonder if Bunu and the rest of the anti-semetic Paulites know that they are scumbags. Like, the live in their mom basement, never have a girlfriend, greasy hair scumbags who want to ruin things for other people because they are such parasitic losers
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Wrong as usual lol
The neoconservative movement is the biggest group of scumbags in the country at the moment.
t’s all about making sure other ppl’s children die for their fake fantasies in order to make themselves feel more comfortable.
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This is why we need a law that if congressman votes for these wars, he himself and his family go to the frontline to fight in them.
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no. you and your POS Ron Paul worshipers are cowards. pathetic, useless, quivering cowards, who again, want to destroy all forms of society so that you can live in mama’s basement, do your drugs and dream about the one day a girl might say hi to you…knowing that it will never occur.
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Why don’t you spend your time whacking off to the latest gold and bitcoin prices at another site instead of coming here and disturbing the adults who actually contribute to society.
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Paulbots are terrorist loving scum.
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That’s well said, Vic.
Chicon
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Funny, the Pauliastas talk a good Constitutional game, until they advocate for laws that are blatantly unconstitutional.🤔
The late, great Wes used to surmise that they pleasured themselves in their parent’s basement to the stained poster of Ron Paul by their bunk side. It seems that that worn out stained Ron Paul poster has been replaced with anti-Jew propaganda (both the Nazi and Black Panther vintage as well as the new Pali-friendly stuff that’s out).
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GF – you made me laugh, though, to be honest, I think that is a very very accurate portrait of who they are…and what they do
Thanks Chicon. I thought it was eloquent, considering the subject matter
They really are the lowest of the low. They don’t stand for anything, and truly work, and wish for anarchy. They think that is the natural state, every scumbag for themselves.
Geez. Imagine having to do a group project with one of these cowards in school.
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It’s no different than doing a group project with an anarcho-Marxist waiting for their appointed position within the commune; they are all deadweight.
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If Paulbots ever did take control of the government, America would retreat from the world and become so weak it would be invaded by the French.
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Bitter – therein lies the problem. They don’t want a government. They are true anarchists in the sense that they believe in a world with no government (this way no one to tell them they are wrong, and no consequences for their actions). They want to deconstruct civil society and to renege on the social contract we have with each other in order to become a civil society. To paraphrase, they want a world where we revert to the state of nature where we exist without any overseeing authority. A society without rules, politics, or government. In this state, the people are free to do what they please with no defined duties or obligations.
That is the true goal of Paulistas. To accomplish that they found the Republican party the easier of the two parties to begin the deconstruction of our country, and our political system. If you remember during the Tea Party time of 2010 they wanted all the primaries turned to caucuses because they felt they could control them. Caucuses cater to the fanatics, and these Paulistas have no ties, no bond to family, obviously no girlfriends or even friends, its every person for themselves. Obviously they were (are) outcasts who society didn’t accept, hence their penchant for the Paul’s garbage.
When that didn’t work they began organizing at the local level and slowly bled their beliefs into the party. It started with the “Freedom caucus”…anti-military, their anti-semitic tropes about the Fed, the Rothschilds, the new world order, the CFR, etc.
So now here we are. Trying to rid the Conservative movement of their fingerprints. They are not conservative, nor constitutionalists, no “freedom” desiring. They want to have no obligation to society.
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