The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +15210225

2026 Senate Forecast

SCIAAKKSMITXMEMNOHNH
Gap+2+2+2+1+0.5+0.5+1+1+2+5
Count46474849505149484746

Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….

Texas, Texas, Texas

DW

Paxton leads according to Quantus Insights

US Senate
🟥Ken Paxton 47.2%
🟦James Talarico 46.7%

10/9-11; 854 LV

And then there is Marist who back in September had Talarico up 6, now showing the late momentum going to Paxton:

US Senate
🟥Ken Paxton 45%
🟦James Talarico 47%

Governor
🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 49%
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 45%

10/8-11; LV

Heaven and earth may pass away but no Republican ever lost when Marist said he led by four.

Finally an older poll just released (probably to hide the recent gains Paxton has been making) Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov has Talarico up 3, and only two points off of Abbott’s numbers, which I don’t think anyone believes:

US Senate
🟥Ken Paxton 47%
🟦James Talarico 50%

Governor
🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 48%
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 49%

9/25-10/5; 841 LV

33 responses to “Texas, Texas, Texas”

  1. DW Avatar
    DW

    moving jason’s comment from dead thread:

    There are two distinct dynamics in this election.

    The Dem argument that the cost of living is up and Trump and the Rs are to blame and somehow voting for them will make things better.

    The R argument that the Dem party is now majority socialist and voting for Rs is a vote against socialism and the extreme view espoused by many Dem candidates.

    In my view the second argument is more compelling. However, if you believe in the “its the economy, stupid” or better yet “Its the PERCEPTION of the economy, stupid” then Rs are in trouble.

    The people in ME, AK, KS, IA, TX, MI, NE, etc have to be convinced that voting for D has a bigger negative consequence than punishing Trump and Rs for high prices.

    Less than 3 weeks to make that case.

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    Both parties have low favorability, and voters who think might realize that Dems want to eliminate gas altogether and go full commie. The problem is there are not many voters who think. Most eat up whatever they say on The View.

    Like

  3. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Here in PA, I have not seen ONE Garrity ad on TV. Not too many Shapiro ads but there are some.

    My Rep Scott Perry is now too conservative for a district that includes Harrisburg. He is running against a former TV anchor who is pretending to be a moderate. Her ads feature “no tax on tips and overtime” and “secure border and deport all illegal criminals” and other things she would never vote for once elected. She has tons of money and has had billboards up attacking Perry for over a year.

    Perry only won by 5k votes last time around with Trump on the ballot. The Harrisburg Dem vote will probably be lower without Kamala on the ballot but probably not enough to help him.

    He has some good ads up exposing how Stelson is really a flaming liberal and her “conservative” positions are lies.

    But I will be surprised if he wins.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    Another way to look at the Texas race is to realize that of current polls, outside of Siena and YouGov, the WORST poll for Paxton is Trafalgar Group.

    I am getting more an more confident that Paxton pulls it out. Cornyn would be up by ten. Just had to say it.

    Like

  5. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    When God wants you dead, you die….

    • Hassan Jihad Ibn Kariem, 42, died after falling from the Goliath roller coaster at Six Flags Over Georgia on Monday, Oct. 12
    • A family friend says the Atlanta educator had survived a car fire just weeks before his death, adding that Kariem also previously survived cancer and COVID-19

    Like

  6. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    We have educators named Jihad…..

    Like

  7. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Another way to look at the Texas race is to realize that of current polls, outside of Siena and YouGov, the WORST poll for Paxton is Trafalgar Group.”

    You make a good argument for why Paxton will eke it out.

    However, it would be nice to see a poll where he is actually not losing or tied. (or winning by 0.5%)

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    BOOM!

    The last Economist/YouGov generic ballot was Dem +11 among likely voters, and Dem+9 among Registered voters.

    A week later, its Dem +8 among likely and Dem+7 among Registered, a gain of 3 and 2.

    Like

  9. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    DW, don’t forget Ohio.

    Like

  10. DW Avatar
    DW

    “However, it would be nice to see a poll where he is actually not losing or tied. (or winning by 0.5%)”

    A fair point. I think we will in the coming days. co/efficient has not yet polled Texas. They will show a Paxton lead. Others will probably show Paxton ahead before election day.

    Like

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    Phil, just for clarity, that was Jason’s comment from the dead thread…but I am sure he won’t forget OH.

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    Marist polled the 2024 race in Texas, Trump vs. Harris, about this same time in October, and they had it Trump 53 / Harris 46, a lead of 7. Trump went on to win by almost twice that. But of course Paxton is a weak candidate. But with Marist saying he’s down only 2, he’s got a real shot at this, and I think he pulls it out.

    Like

  13. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    He has a shot.

    Like

  14. DW Avatar
    DW

    Republicans smashing it again in Florida returned ballots. Even though the GOP voters requested far fewer ballots, they are actually eating into the Dem raw lead this morning. But the GOP is doing better than 2 years ago:

    2024 Mail returned was

    D+7.0 (D+211,285)

    2026 mail so far

    D+6.5 (D+40,390)

    Shift from 2024 to now

    R+0.5

    Like

  15. DW Avatar
    DW

    Even if you don’t like Bobby Kennedy because he’s a lib…he’s doing some good. From Daughtery:

    Sec. Bobby Kennedy announces the Trump admin has identified NEARLY 200,000 DUPLICATE ENROLLMENTS in taxpayer healthcare programs, with new savings reaching $1.5 billion as a result…

    …and those payments were just going STRAIGHT TO BIG, RICH INSURANCE. These enrollees died.

    THEY JUST KEEP FINDING FRAUD.

    Greenlit by the Biden administration!

    “Each of those figures represents a payment that would otherwise have gone to an insurance company, not to an American citizen. That’s why we check the records, and that’s why we act when payments do not meet the rules.”

    Nobody in DC bothered to check the records until Trump and Bobby Kennedy

    Every dollar of waste they cut is a dollar that never should have left our pockets!

    Like

  16. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Yeah, good catch Phil, I forgot OH.

    Like

  17. DW Avatar
    DW

    more from Daugherty this morning:

    BOOM! “Congresswoman [Ilhan Omar] is the subject of MORE THAN ONE federal investigation.” 🔥

    • HSI/DHS: IMMIGRATION, fraud, judicial warrant approved by a DEMOCRAT judge
    • US Attorney Jeanine Pirro: Related to Ilhan’s sketchy $30M financial form, “revised” down to nearly $100K

    Two SEPARATE investigations.

    Ilhan is in deep sht and I love watching!

    Honestly, she should see the writing on the wall. Resign now, turn everything over, and self-deport to Somalia!

    Tens of millions of Americans would rejoice.

    These cases are building simultaneously, and we know the DHS one involves GRAND JURY SUBPOENAS.

    Yeah, it’s that serious.

    Like

  18. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    If the drats vote by mail operation is failing will they be able to make it up on Election Day?

    Like

  19. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The Somali representative may have lied on official federal documents. Including her date of birth.

    Like

  20. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    It does not seem convincing that drats will show up on Election Day because muh Trump stopped ballot harvesting.

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    one more point about Texas, comparing Quantus and Marist.

    The Quantus sample was 839 likely voters. Their margin of error was +-3.6

    The Marist sample was 1196 likely voters. Their margin of error was +-4.4

    This means that Quantus likely had a wide variety of methods to survey the state, while Marist took a riskier approach of a singular method.

    Like

  22. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Marxist has the drsr plus 2 in tx senate. This party if seems far fetched

    Like

  23. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Rats plus 2 in tx senate

    Like

  24. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @OpenSourceZone

    ·

    12h

    2026 vs 2022 Nevada Clark County Early Vote 22 days out 2022: 🔵 52.7% 🔴 16.4% ⚪️ 30.9% 2026: 🔵 44.8% (-7.9) 🔴 25.0% (+8.6) ⚪️ 30.1% (-0.8) (Per

    @petebray

    )

    Like

  25. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Lombardo is strong out of Clark county. This is very early though. But drats are way down so far.

    Like

  26. DW Avatar
    DW

    okay…just one more point on Texas…looking chronologically at the last FIVE polls of this race starting with the oldest:

    Talarico +6
    Talarico +4
    Talarico +3
    Talarico +2
    Paxton +0.5

    Coincidence?

    Like

  27. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    @nypost: Ilhan Omar’s congressional staff got her official birth year changed from 1981 to 1982 in May 2019, months after she took office. Why does one year matter? She says she became a citizen through her father at 17, in 2000. Born in 1981, she’d have been 18 that whole year and one year is the difference between her citizenship story working and not. “For derivative citizenship, two things have to be true — one, her father had to naturalize; and two, she still had to be a minor.” That one year matters a lot.

    Like

  28. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Of course, good luck getting a birth certificate from Somalia that won’t be doctored.

    Like

  29. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    It may not be document Fraud referring her birth certificate, the lead agency behind the raid also looks at financial information. She claimed to be worth a lot of $$$ on her paperwork. Then the $$$ disappeared on a revised form. Where did the $$$ go?

    Like

  30. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    What time does the troll show up?

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    the trolls are big talk, but they never explain why it is they want to vote for people who will turn the country into a Haiti like manure pit run by corruption, violence, drugs, gangs, and where Americans are bled dry of our resources to pay for our replacements brought in from manure pits around the world.

    Like

  32. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Troll visiting hours start at 8:00 p.m.

    Like

  33. DW Avatar
    DW

    Looking at the Senate races and the Dem Internal polling releases of the key states, here is the list, and again the internals are usually the rosiest polls for the Dem candidate:

    IA: +4
    KS: +5
    ME: +4
    AK: +6
    TX: +5
    OH: +4
    MI: +4
    NC: +10

    And yet I counted 12 instances where other polling found a bigger lead than what the candidate could show, when that candidate has the luxury of picking the date range and manipulating it to make it as rosy as possible.

    Like

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