New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +15 | 210 | 225 |
Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….
According to Siena:
TEXAS
Siena/ReconMR
US Senate
🟥Ken Paxton 44%
🟦James Talarico 48%
🟥Abbott 48%
🟦Hinojosa 47%
October 5-8; 617 LV
For what its worth, Siena’s poll done with the NY Times was Talarico +6
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Due to the election getting closer and the difficulty keeping up with all the polls, Homer Hedgehog cartoons will be a bit more sparse between now and election day. I also will be gone several days over the next several weeks.
I hope Janzam can tell us when the TX voters will start paying attention.
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I read through Walt’s “slavery was bad BUT” mumbo jumbo on the previous post, in the end I agreed with at least ONE point he made.
“And the Civil War was all about slavery”
True.
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Maybe Walt can share a heartwarming story about a guard at Auschwitz who decided not to shoot 2 girls in the head and only shot 1.
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Walt might be spending too much time with Tina.
And PLEASE let us ALL remember that, despite factual records that prove otherwise, 100% of every white person in the south supported slavery, 100% owned slaves, 100% beat all their slaves every Tuesday just because, 100% supported the confederacy and did NOT take up arms against the confederacy, and 0% of whites in the south did anything to help slaves in any way. And 0% of white slaves owners made legal provisions to free their slaves upon their death. Any and all historical data that proves or suggests otherwise will be burned or otherwise destroyed and never spoken of.”
“Nor were there any men in the south who left the south to go north and join the Union army to fight against the south, and it is a lie to say there were pockets of the south that took up arms and remained loyal to the union throughout the ENTIRE Civil war and were never controlled militarily by the Confederacy. Nor were there any whites in the north thst were opposed to fighting the southern states, nor were there any whites in the north that were racists back before 1865.”
“And the world would be a better place if we had just killed off all whites, whether they owned slaves or not, in the south in 1865 once the North won the Civil War.”
Made up garbage nobody ever said here.
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I have no idea who is really leading in Texas. I know Tina will trash any poll where Paxton is not up by 20. Both can be true.
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What will happen if Talafreako wins is we will be told that Cornyn would have lost by more.
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In both Florida and Michigan, it seems the early voting shows Republicans outpacing democrats compared to 2024.
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from Eric Daugherty:
Former Navy SEAL Carl Higbie goes on a RAMPAGE in favor of the public execution of Fort Hood terrorist Nidal Hasan on national TV:
“The same party that k*lls MILLIONS of babies every year through abortion is going to clutch their pearls about SH00TING a terrorist in the face!”
“An American military officer turned his gun on his fellow service members in the name of Islam, including standing over a nine-month pregnant mother and SH00TING her!”
“I want him to de in the most painful dath imaginable. I want ALL of these people that believe the same things to see it happen.”
“I certainly don’t care that he is in a wheelchair. Zero sympathy. Because he k*lled my brothers and sisters.”
Higbie is 100% right!
Hasan m*rdered 13 people on a U.S. base in the name of jihad. AND HE IS PROUD OF IT
Meanwhile he has leftists DEFENDING him all across America because they have suic*dal empathy.
He has been sitting on death row since 2013 while his victims’ families waited for justice.
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The apologists for the South love to pretend the Civil War was not about slavery, it was for “economic reasons”.
Zzzzzz…
Slaveowners wanted to keep slaves for economic reasons, yes.
Slavery was evil, the South wanted to keep slaves, the war was about the fact the Southern states did not want to abolish slavery and tried to break up the Union to preserve that right.
Nothing changes that. Not “black slave owners”. Not “there were slaves in the North”. Not some Southerners opposed slavery. Not some Northerners approved of slavery. Not some Southerners fought for the North. Not some Northerners fought for the South. Not the North committed atrocities during the war. Not that people in the South suffered the consequences of fighting a war on its own soil and of losing the war.
None of that even remotely suggests the Civil War was not about slavery, and none of it serves as any justification for slavery or its evilness.
No war is fought with approval of 100% of the population on either side.
But Walt knows that.
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What will happen if Talafreako wins is we will be told that Cornyn would have lost by more.”
We will also be told that the “GOP-e” is responsible for Paxton losing.
Tina and Janzam will never admit Paxton is the mother of all crappy candidates.
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I would propose a compromise on the execution.
Have the execution available for downloading after it happened rather than being shown live.
Anyone who chooses to air it or download it is free to do so.
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The difference is nobody will be watching anyone dying in real time. They can watch the video of the death of someone.
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Hope springs eternal.
“CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten recently highlighted data showing that early-October generic congressional ballot polling has understated Republican performance in 14 of the 16 election cycles since 1994.”
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(Some of you people on here are absolutely loony on lots of things related to the civil war… and make all sorts of wild, unfounded, untrue charges and aspersions against me for what I posted…).
Not me.
Nothing personal, I am not going to agree with any theory that the Civil War was not about slavery or that there was any justification for slavery or that anything that happened during or afte the war changes that.
I can live with the charge of being “loony” for believing that.
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I hope so jason, and that would be consistent with FL, MI, and last I checked OH showing strong numbers for Republicans in early voting.
https://flvoicenews.com/florida-turnout-tracker/
As you can see in Florida the numbers look pretty strong.
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I would prefer it be shown live but I can accept Jason’s compromise.
I think the worst argument is that showing it live will make him a martyr and inspire more attacks. That raises the question of why were there so many prior terrorist attacks without a live execution of a terrorist?
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·
BREAKING: Florida Republicans are returning their mail-in ballots at a HIGHER RATE than Democrats vs 2024 — and the statewide mail lead for Dems is now FLAT from 2 years ago RETURN RATE: Republican: 24% (+1) Democrat: 23% STATEWIDE MAIL: 2026: D+7 2024: D+7 I’ve been watching this for days now and I am seeing no Democrat surge or wave. An inordinate number of NPAs suddenly voting blue would be required KEEP VOTING
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Oh, continues to see a continued drop off by drats. The yutes and Aas are not turning out.
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In the Eagles loss on Sunday, not sure why during the return the guy tackled the runner when he did. there were other players swarming down field to bring him down with 0:00 on the clock, but instead he tackled him with 0:01 on the clock allowing the game winner.
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DW – The Eagles players missed several chances to tackle him. I think that the kicker was the last possible defender. If there were players behind him, I am not sure they would not have also missed the tackle. It was horrible to watch.
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I guess the play that really messed it up for the Eagles was the one prior to their field goal, where the runner was instantly stuffed and tackled, not allowing enough time to come off the clock before the field goal.
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They should have run it 3 times but passed twice instead. The incompletions stopped the clock as a gift to the Jags.
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John Elway made the same mistake in 1982 in the game against Cal, where he panicked and called timeout too soon so that after Stanford kicked the ‘winning’ field goal they had to kick off due to several seconds still being on the clock.
The result was Cal making five laterals on the way down the field to score a touchdown with the Stanford band out on the field–the famous play to beat the band.
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I had to watch this play as the Internet talks of nothing else (besides the Commanders QB who let the clock run out instead of spiking the ball or throwing it out of bounds, watched that fiasco too)
I don’t think you can chase a runner down and look at the clock at the same time.
It was just bad luck for the Eagles that the runner didn’t get to take one more step before the tackle. If you look closely, the kicker slowed him down just a tad, otherwise he might have gone all the way.
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I think Walt’s perspective is skewed because he had friends and neighbors who served on both sides of the civil war.
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Speaker Johnson DROPS this warning to millions of Americans
If we let the Democrats win the midterms, THEIR DAY ONE AGENDA:
“It would roil the markets and it would empower our enemies around the world at the worst possible time!”
Contrast ALL of this with MAGA and Republicans. Trump is proposing election integrity, a PERMANENT ban on opening up the border for any future president, ban on transgendering kids, lower taxes and destroying fraudulent spending
Vote like our republic depends on it!
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KalshiPolitics
·
7m
POLITICO: Top Democratic pollster says that the recent round of NYT/Siena polls were “too rosy”
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Aren’t ny slimes/slimena poles the worst in the biz?
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unfortunately, Johnson is right, but unfortunately, its too late to do much about it. In damage control mode. Trump will have to veto everything the next two years.
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The Commanders play was hilarious. The have 45 seconds, they can let it go down to like 10, spike the ball, kick the FG and win. Instead they run a passing play with 15 to go and even then, all the QB had to do was throw the ball out of bounds. Instead he lets himself be tackled while holding on to the ball. Then he is actually lying on the ground and not really trying to get up quickly when another player runs up and motions “spike it”.
But it was too late, probably too late anyway because there were receivers downfield that had to get back too.
Had it been the Broncos and I still cared if they won or lost, I would have killed myself.
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As to the polling, its true I have NEVER seen so many examples where the Dem internal polling (which historically is the rosiest for the Dem candidate), was then outpaced by a university or media poll showing an even bigger lead for the Dem, often 4 to 8 points better. Its insane.
The way it works is the candidate’s pollster is polling constantly, so when they release an internal, they pick the two or three days in a row that gave them the highest mark. I have seen it where they even released an internal that had Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but not Tuesday, as a means of juicing their numbers. But the university and media polls often go much darker blue.
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In 1998 the Dems were projected to lose up to 30 seats.
They ended up winning 5.
Hope springs eternal.
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Of course, even then it didn’t win them the House.
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Republicans in Florida having an awesome day so far in mailed in ballots:
2024 Mail returned was
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far
D+6.8 (D+36,857)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.2
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.8, a R+0.2 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
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The trial is expected to last 3 weeks?!? He was getting paid to work 5 full time government jobs at the same time
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GOP keeps gaining in Florida:
2024 Mail returned was:
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far:
D+6.7 (D+36,620)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.3
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.7, a R+0.3 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
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2024 Mail returned was
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far
D+6.6 (D+36,537)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.4
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.6, a R+0.4 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
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With fl ds will exhaust their numbers. Rs will have reserves with the reg advantage
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A federal judge just ordered Florida to stop counting mailed in ballots because Democrats need more time to catch up.
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Can I get the brand that Eric Daugherty is drinking?
UPDATE: GOP operatives say the ENTIRE 2026 midterm battlefield is “INSIDE 3 POINTS” and Democrats believe the polls are “too rosy” for them — POLITICO
WE’VE HEARD THIS BEFORE.
One House Democrat: “It’s starting to feel overhyped.”
This happens EVERY ELECTION CYCLE and we can cancel them out by voting in droves
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I continue to believe Paxton will defeat Talarico. Would Cornyn have been doing any better? With such a humiliating primary, and with so many of the base and grassroots fed up with Cornyn, I think it’s fools gold to keep on groaning about “if only” Cornyn was the nominee. Nonetheless, we will see what the numbers turn out to be after November 3rd. Should Paxton lose there will be nothing but jeering for those who supported him ——> me. However, should Paxton win there will be crickets from those same people.
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Gasoline prices here ra ge from $4.19 to $3.87 per gallon
Never before seen such wide price difference in a 10 mile area.
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Walt, its because some stations are seeing a path forward to lower costs to replenish their supply so they are gambling a bit against the competition hoping to win on volume and that the prices do drop some. The more cautious stations are holding the prices higher in case their costs don’t drop.
But the popular convenience store stations can afford to gamble a bit, knowing they can also win on fried chicken, hot dogs, and other fast food.
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Nonetheless, we will see what the numbers turn out to be after November 3rd.”
LOL
We were supposed to see the voters paying attention after Labor Day.
Now I guess we have to wait until the night of the election?
Janzam lock for HHR Clown 2025.
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Should Paxton lose there will be nothing but jeering for those who supported him ——> me. However, should Paxton win there will be crickets from those same people.”
Not me.
I will breathe a huge sigh of relief.
But Paxton will still be a crappy candidate and Cornyn would still have wiped the floor with Talarico.
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Now I guess we have to wait until the night of the election?
Everything before election day is speculation and based on one’s own choice. After Election Day it represents reality. Paxton has a lot of rough edges, but is more reliable in executing difficult policies, laws, especially those protecting children from transgender surgeries. Cornyn is a slick establishment politician who goes along to get along. I doubt he would wiping anyone’s floor……
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and with so many of the base and grassroots fed up with Cornyn, I think it’s fools gold to keep on groaning about “if only” Cornyn was the nominee.”
LOL
I guess this is an admission that “the base and grassroots” don’t win elections.
So unless the deadenders wouldn’t vote for Cornyn, considering Cornyn has a lot more support among non-Maga Rs and Indies, he should run away with the election against a weirdo communist.
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Cornyn is a slick establishment politician who goes along to get along”
Translation: he would have won by at least 10 and wiped the floor with the commie.
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they are down $15 in oil prices. Yet pump prices are barely down 10-15 cents. Ridiculous. As is the variance.
Hopefully Pooty and sniffy quit the sheot about blowing up diesel.
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Everything before election day is speculation and based on one’s own choice.”
Major goal post moving alert.
Do I have to go back and get your posts where you said Paxton would pull ahead after Labor Day when Texans started paying attention or do you admit you were wrong?
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Hopefully Pooty and sniffy quit the sheot about blowing up diesel.”
Zzzzzz….
Ukraine is completely justified in going after Russia’s oil industry.
If Trump is worried about he can tell Putin to GTFO of Ukraine.
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Paxton has a lot of rough edges”
LOL
Is that the code word for “unpopular and loaded with baggage”?
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Paxton leads
·
🚨 NOW: NEW TEXAS US SENATE poll 🔴 Ken Paxton: 47.2% (+0.5) 🔵 James Talarico: 46.7% Quantus Insights | 10/9-11 | N=839LV
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Cornyn is a slick establishment politician”
Repeating this lie over and over doesn’t make it true.
Cornyn is an actual CONSERVATIVE and Republican with decades of votes and activities to prove it. He doesn’t sell out his conservative principles in order to enhance his MAGA credentials.
Paxton is a populist with zero conservative principles he wouldn’t sell out for whatever current MAGA winds are blowing.
I hope he wins because the alternative is a lot worse. But replacing him on the ticket was a monumental mistake, win or lose.
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Wow, “conservative” Paxton leads by 0.5% in red TX against a weirdo communist who was just AWOL for 2 weeks?
Hallelujah, bring out the champagne and the dancing girls.
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So the freepassswrs are not concerned about gas prices after all. Who knew?
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This was a project began 3 years ago under demented. But the Marxist has to intervene
·
🚨 NOW: ONE BIDEN JUDGE Ana Reyes has BANNED the Trump admin from cutting down any more trees on the East Potomac golf course in D.C. through at least Oct. 26 Judges are now deciding whether the President can trim trees at a public golf course. WAY IN OVER HER HEAD The National Park Service says it’s simply carrying out a 2019 rehabilitation plan to restore the course’s look and reopen views of the Washington Monument GET THESE ACTIVIST JUDGES OUT OF THE WAY.
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So the freepassswrs are not concerned about gas prices after all. Who knew?”
Gas prices are high because of the Iran “war”. Gas was at least a dollar cheaper than when the war started.
But Tina knows that.
Tina is not worried about the price of gas. She is worried about Ukraine blowing up her hero Putin’s oil industry.
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2026 New York Governor 🔵 Kathy Hochul: 47% 🔴 Bruce Blakeman: 44% Pollfinity poll | 10/8-10/12
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Jan and Tina can rejoice! Actually all of us can.
Quantus Insights
🟥Ken Paxton 47.2%
🟦James Talarico 46.7%
***Alternative Reality***
🟥John Cornyn 51.2%
🟦James Talarico 42.7%
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The freepassers were mute about Biden’s prices. They never even “knew” food prices went up 23%.
Gas is high because of the antics of sniffy and pooty.
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It is not because hormuzzle is closed
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It’s over for freako. Yesterday he came out saying Biden’s open border was bad.
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Cornyn and the freepasssers want Paxton to lose.
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I said to wait for Mid to late October polling. But no.
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Cornyn and the freepasssers want Paxton to lose.
Another lie. Everybody at HHR wants Paxton to win.
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Last week the freepassers strongly suggested that muh Hispanics were upset because of the deportations.
·
There’s literally no sign of a reversion of support from Hispanic voters in Florida. Florida early vote looks like 2022, but with mutual higher volume. DeSantis won that by 19.4. And people might misremember, but he didn’t poll like he’d win by 19. Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody poll like DeSantis and Rubio in 2022. But there are fewer polls now, which should also tell you a lot.
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Cornyn and the freepasssers want Paxton to lose.
The free passers still stand behind Cornyn and criticize Paxton. However, if Paxton wins they’ll just shuffle on and say nothing. It’s Cornyn who has said he wishes Paxton will lose, as it will teach the MAGA supporters a lesson to not go against the establishment republicans again.
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This morning Steve Cortes did a voting analysis of AZ Hispanics. Their “beef” is not deportation but the economy, gas prices etc. in which they blame the current president.
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Do I have to go back and get your posts where you said Paxton would pull ahead after Labor Day….
And you said back in 2016 Trump would lose. There are no crystal balls, Jason, only subjective predictions. Why don’t you stop trying to pick a fight!
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I want Paxton to win. I think he may lose which is almost impossible in Texas. Both can be true.
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From the Daily Signal:
“Amid a pending divorce, Ken and Angela Paxton likely have their fair share of disagreements. But one thing they agree on: Democrats only have a shot at winning Texas if Republicans fail to stand by their candidates.
As election day nears, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is neck and neck against Democrat state Rep. James Talarico. The race is so close not because Texas has suddenly swung left, but because Republicans are undercutting their own candidates.”
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I want Paxton to lose and he will lose.
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MAGA dropped that Ohio mental health center hot potato pretty quickly.
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here is yet another example. The dem in the AZ Gov race released an internal poll showing a lead of 4 or 5, but that wasn’t good enough for pollster HighGround so they just dropped a poll of only 400 LV showing a lead of +17 for Hobbs.
This is insanity. I have never seen a cycle where this keeps happening over and over. The BEST and most optimistic polls for any candidate are always the released internals. But not this year. Crazy.
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BREAKING FLORIDA POLL: Governor: Byron Donalds: 52% (+11) David Jolly: 41% US Senate: Sen. Ashley Moody: 52% (+11) Angie Nixon: 41% Stetson University | 10/1-9 | LVs AND THERE IT IS It only becomes reality if every Floridian storms the polls and banksShow more
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The GOP romp in Florida continues today:
2024 Mail returned was
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far
D+6.4 (D+38,934)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.5
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.4, a R+0.5 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
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RCP has Florida senate only Lean R.
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but because Republicans are undercutting their own candidates.
Irony Meter explodes because Jan told us that if Cornyn was the nominee, Paxton and MAGA would stay home.
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You guys are in total denial about just how bad the midterms are going to be for Republicans. It is going to be absolutely brutal. It will be interesting to see if the reaction is to 1), say all the results are because of fraud, 2) act surprised or 3), say, yeah, knew this was coming all along.
On here, thinking it will be mostly 3, after the fact.
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No need to worry about Florida, DW. I’m in deep blue Broward and even here I’m seeing Donald’s signs. More than I ever did with DeSantis.
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And don’t look at day 1 in GA. (It’s early)
But the Ds have problems with yutes and blacks. Way down compared to 2022 b
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Any guesses as to the ID of our “guest?”
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GF – Either Corey or Robbie (if he is alive).
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Clinton groupie or the Russian hoaxer. One had gop vanity plates and returned them.
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I can confirm that HHR Guest is using a fake email (different with each post).
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There is no requirement here to use a “real” email. Many here are definitely using “fake” emails. Allowing you to have access to someone’s personal information would be problematic. This site certainly needs all the commenters it could find.
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·
JUST IN — TRUMP WINS IN COURT: A federal appeals court just SIDED with Trump’s DHS, upholding the dismissal of Lebanese H-1B doctor Rasha Alawieh’s lawsuit that could’ve reversed her deportation after her support for Hezbollah GOOD RIDDANCE The 1st Circuit ruled that the courts don’t have jurisdiction to hear her case. Alawieh, on an H-1B visa, was stopped at Boston’s Logan Airport in March 2025 after a trip to Lebanon Agents found “sympathetic” photos and videos of Hezbollah figures, including Nasrallah, in her phone’s deleted items folder. She ADMITTED she attended Nasrallah’s funeral while she was in Lebanon. Hezbollah is a designated foreign terrorist organization Anyone who mourns terrorists has NO business here! DEPORTATION UPHELD
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And I for one am not in denial…I fear it could be a bloodbath. But the polls are all over the place. There are clear gaslighters who are far more pro-Dem that even the Dem internals released on the same date range, and there are generic ballot polls that range from D+2 to D+15
One day Change Research-D says Florida Gov is tied, today Stetson U says its Donalds +11
And then there is early voting where in MI, OH and FL, the GOP seems to be doing okay if not better than in 2024. So this election is not “over” in any sense. Sure, I believe the Dems will control the house. But the size of that majority is up in the air. The senate is truly a tossup, and if the GOP makes a slight run here at the end and outperforms the polling just a little, the senate could be okay. But if the GOP fails to show up, it could still be a disaster.
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The House is gone and it will probably be a Dem majority with several seats to spare. The situation for Republicans is getting worse. Losing the House for Republicans is of course a major problem itself.
Is the Senate guaranteed to go Democrat? No, but with each passing day, it is looking more likely. You can pick and choose whatever polls you want. Remember, while the Presidential cycle polls have underestimated Republican support, the last midterm in 2022, which was supposed to be a “red wave”, understated Democrats, and they did much better than expected. So many Trump voters just are not going to come out in the midterms and among those who will be voting, Trump is just extremely unpopular, far more than he ever has been during an election before.
But maybe you will keep Florida Governor. That seems to be the new safety anchor to comfort yourselves. We will see. Jolly is making a mistake in my view by not debating Donalds.
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All other reports regarding early voting out of Ohio is that the numbers are heavily favoring Democrat gains.
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Perhaps now that Donald Trump at his latest rally yesterday spoke glowingly about Jon Husted’s ass and how he examined his body, Husted will surge from behind in his race.
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“the last midterm in 2022, which was supposed to be a “red wave”, understated Democrats, and they did much better than expected.”
This is of course a falsehood. The RCP generic ballot polling ended at GOP +2.5 and the actual result was GOP +2.8. So in 2022, polling more or less nailed it.
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Think back to 2022 race by race, and high profile contests for Governor and Senate that Republicans wound up not winning. It should have been a great midterm for Republicans and it failed to be so. Republicans were expected to win far more House seats than they did in 2022 and only won a very narrow majority.
But you agree the House is gone for Republicans anyway, so not sure what your point is about the House. The generic ballot for Republicans is a lot worse now than it was two years ago, when they barely won the House.
Your concern should be about all the Senate seats that may flip to Democrats. There is only one that might flip to Republicans and I would be fine with that and a lot of actual Democrats might be fine with that. They nominated the wrong person in Michigan, but right now, it looks like even he will win.
On here, the Gubernatorial races do not get much mention. Republicans will probably pick up Kansas, which with ticket splitters will ironically make it harder for Roger Marshall, but beyond that, there are a bunch of red states who might be about to elect Democrats as Governor.
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Abbott will win in Texas. Ayotte in New Hampshire. Ramaswamy will likely pull it out in Ohio. Donalds is a lock in Florida. We have a good shot at the Gov race in Oregon. Jackson likely wins in Georgia. And I would not be surprised if Tiffany pulls out a win in Wisconsin.
El-Sayed will go down in flames. He fell NINE points short of the polling in the Dem primary, and now more people are learning that he is an Egyptian citizen. He hates the iron dome which makes him a terrorist…as he wants Jews dead.
MN senate is a real chance for a flip to the GOP given all the corruption in the Dem candidate who should be in jail, not running for Senate.
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Again, you are in denial or are just trying to comfort yourself on many of those races.
But just in terms of Gubernatorial elections, you seem to at least be admitting that Alaska and Iowa are gone. I do not think New Hampshire is at too much risk for Ayotte, but Democrats might win Nebraska and Nevada. Paxton is hurting Abbott in Texas.
The Governor of Oregon might be unpopular, but she is not going to lose this year. Democrats never lose an Oregon Gubernatorial race and the streak is not going to be broken in 2026.
The weekend before the election, start up a race by race prediction contest and you and everyone else can go on record regarding Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin etc.
I think it is very likely the day after the election, after Republicans do worse than you are claiming they will do, you will be claiming you knew it all along.
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You guys are in total denial about just how bad the midterms are going to be for Republicans”
Zzzzz…
You were probably in total denial about Trump winning and Casey, Brown and Tester losing, so GFY.
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Paxton probably won’t win here in Texas. He’s got too much baggage in a year when oil prices have skyrocketed even against a woke freak. Abbott, on the other hand, thanks to Hinojosa’s past support for a state income tax assures the governor’s mansion stays red. That’s poison here regardless of how blue a year it is. Hinojosa ads are rare which tells you Democrats aren’t spending money on the race. That alone tells you the actual state of that race.
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Here in Illinois I get a ton of Tilly (anti-Crowley) ads. I get one on every youtube video I watch. The ads feel like they could be effective. I’m happy they are wasting some money on out of state folk.
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Gas is high because of the antics of sniffy and pooty.”
What a load of crap.
“U.S. gas prices averaged just under $3.00 per gallon (around $2.45 to $3.00 depending on the region) just before the war with Iran started in late February 2026. Following supply disruptions and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, national gas prices surged by roughly $1.00 to $1.25+ per gallon (a 44% to 50% increase), fluctuating around $3.97 to $4.50+ per gallon through subsequent peaks and drops.”
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So three weeks before the election a Democratic troll suddenly appears out of nowhere. Who knew?
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Do I have to go back and get your posts where you said Paxton would pull ahead after Labor Day….
And you said back in 2016 Trump would lose.”
Actually, what I said was that I wasn’t going to vote for him.
I was actually pretty bullish on his chances compared to most people here.
I even won $1000 from the Biden Troll here betting he would win
But hey, if you have to go back ten years to find anywhere I was wrong it does say something for my incredible accuracy, thanks.
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Kalshi has Talarico higher than he was before the trip to the mental ward.
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betting markets are a joke.
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So three weeks before the election a Democratic troll suddenly appears out of nowhere. Who knew?”
It always happens.
The low IQ scum always gets excited with the agenda polling. Maggots attracted to fetid rotting roadkill.
He will disappear like all the trolls do every time Trump defies their expectations that “Trump is finished”.
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Yeah, betting markets going up or down mean pretty much nothing.
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Paxton probably won’t win here in Texas. He’s got too much baggage”
If he loses I can’t wait for Janzam’s and Tina’s excuses.
It will at least be comic relief for a disastrous outcome for the country.
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was funny election night with the Michigan Dem primary. El-Sayed was a lock in the betting markets…suddenly Stevens starts piling up the votes, they panic, sell El-Sayed, betting markets even out, then El-Sayed wins by 1 in the end anyway. These markets are reactive, not predictive.
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It would be interesting if Paul and HHR Guest read the Iron Broom. They probably think the book a tragedy, because all through it, they would be rooting for the commie torturers as their heroes, and be angry that the author survived it in the end.
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Mike Pence:
Putin doesn’t want peace. Putin wants Ukraine. Enough is enough.
President Trump should rescind the diesel deal with Russia and return to the strong policies of our four years in the White House; use the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act to impose harsh sanctions on any nation purchasing Russian energy and work with our allies to ensure Ukraine has the military support it needs to repel and defeat this Russian invasion once and for all. Slava Ukraini
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I wonder how many of Jan’s beloved core beliefs will be embraced by Talarico if he wins.
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More bad news for Freako. Drats pull Dallas spending.
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Oh no
Senate Polling — Quantus 🔴 Alaska – Sullivan +1 🔴 Texas – Paxton +1 🔴 Iowa – Hinson +1 🔴 Maine – Collins +1 🔴 Florida – Moody +7 🔵 North Carolina – Cooper +5 🔵 Minnesota- Flanagan 🔵 Ohio – Brown +1 🔵 Georgia – Ossoff +4 🔵 Minnesota – Flanagan +4
Last edited1:51 PM · Oct 13, 2026
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But freako is winning.
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DW – You can stop your decades of analyzing polls. Tina has declared all Republicans will win because….All Republicans will win.
You can’t dispute that hard-hitting analysis.
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There is one hope for Paxton.
In 2024 polls showed Allred consistently close to Ted Cruz, sometimes tied and even ahead.
He lost by 13.
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If the alternative polling shown earlier that Cornyn would be up almost 10 is correct, we have an eight point swing against Paxton. I’ve no doubt that there is a shy-Paxton effect in polling, how much I cannot say, but if he pulls it off, look for those polled for the Libertarian and undecided, along with a handful of those otherwise Cornyn voters to supply the margin.
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Jan trashes Cornyn but demands his primary voters switch to Paxton. I think voters should vote for the winner of their primary. However, don’t forget Jan said Paxton voters would stay home if Cornyn won.
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Ted Cruz won 53-45. Eight points. Not 13.
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Bitter, where did I ever “demand” Cornyn’s voters to switch over to Paxton? It’s another example of you distorting my words to fit your own narrative – like Dems do. I think Paxton will do more for Texas, implementing the Trump agenda than Cornyn has. What I expect of Cornyn, though, is not to trash Paxton during the GE – nothing more. Hopefully Republican/independent voters will be able to figure out who aligns with their values more – Paxton vs Talarico.
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I stated I expect the Dems will gain 25-30 seats in the House before the Iran war. Barring any last minute developments, I will stand by it. GFYs
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25-30 before the Iran War would have to be about 30-40 now. If that happens, Democrats will probably have at least 53 seats in the Senate. There is no way that Republicans can lose 25 House seats and keep the Senate.
All of that is more than I am willing to go at this point in regards to what is going to happen, but who knows.
I just think it will be fascinating to pursue what the 8 of you are saying right after the Election.
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I disagree. I think the GOP loses the House and keeps the Senate. For example. Trump hatred is going to cost seats in PA and NJ but there are no Senate races here.
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Sept 20, 2024
AUSTIN, Texas — Support for incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz could be narrowing according to a new poll out Friday that shows – for the first time – his Democratic challenger ahead of him. This comes as Cruz and challenger Colin Allred agree to a debate next month.
Allred has been criticized by some for running a low-key campaign, but according to poll numbers, that style of campaigning appears to be working for him.
The numbers from the Morning Consult show Allred one point ahead of Cruz – 45 percent of 44 percent – among likely voters”
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Oct 23, 2024.
A new poll shows a tightening race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred for Texas’ US Senate seat.
Cruz leads Allred by just over one percentage point, 48.3 percent to 46.8 percent, according to the poll from Emerson College Polling.
https://www.fox4news.com/news/ted-cruz-colin-allred-texas-senate-poll
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I very much doubt Rs will lose even 20 seats in the House.
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Rs could still easily win AK, OH, MI, TX and ME.
But I have said if there is a blue tsunami all the close elections will go to the Dems.
I agree with DW that the 6-8 point lead for the Dems does not indicate a blue tsunami, a national lead of 6 pts means it is much closer in the swing states.
Paxton is a poor quality candidate, but an empty Stetson with an R on it should win in TX.
Collins, Rodgers, Husted, Sullivan, Hinson are all very good R candidates.
If they all lose it will be due to a blue tsunami.
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There is a Senate race in New Jersey, it is just not competitive. The Governor race in Pennsylvania is certainly not close either.
The bottom line is that in addition to Maine (which might be one of the better chances for Republicans to hold on), there are many Senate seats in states that Trump won that are at least a Tossup right now.
No political party can lose 25 seats in a Congressional election, which would also take into account all the redistricting Republicans did this cycle to try to make things less worse, and not lose a bunch of Senate seats.
The tipping point for the Senate is probably close to 20 seats. Nonetheless, if Democrats have the House, Trump is not going to get anything he wants done anyway. They should probably welcome continued narrow Republican control of the Senate anyway, so they can run against it in 2028.
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A tsunami is going to flip Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, and maybe more. Why did Mike Rounds of South Dakota suddenly take down every reference to Trump from his website and removed the endorsement that he had featured?
However, it does at least seem that the six of you are who are not Tina or Jan are not trying to claim anymore that Republicans are going to win Senate races in North Carolina or Georgia. It also seems like you have stopped the pipe dream of flipping New Hampshire. Sununu had some very harsh things to say today about Trump’s loyalty to Putin. He knows what his internal polls are saying.
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Rs need the Senate to continue to nominate conservative judges.
To me that is the most important factor for winning the senate.
Another 2 years of conservative judges will have a significant impact on the federal bench.
I have a feeling Dems need 5 seats because of Fetterman.
That won’t happen if Rs keep ME and flip MI.
Put a gun to my head and I think Paxton wins in TX and Hinson in IA.
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Dems aren’t winning Nebraska, South Carolina or Kansas.
You read it first here.
Taking bets.
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South Carolina would be least likely of the three, but Roger Marshall is in deep trouble in Kansas, and it’s getting worse every day. Just ask walt.
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I think Husted and Sullivan are 50/50.
If Brown prevails he will break a long streak of Dem rethreads that didn’t win… Mondale, Bayh, Feingold…..
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I don’t think Marshall is in any trouble. His opponent is another Greg Orman, lots of hype but will get crushed in the end.
Bet on it.
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“Thanks, but not paying any royalties.”
Yeah ok, but just remember, I made you.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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No former Senator in either party has won a comeback attempt in almost 40, and that would include Sununu in NH who has not been a Senator in almost 20 years. Brown, who just narrowly lost two years ago, definitely has the edge this year in OH. 50/50 is not a good position for a Republican to be at in Alaska.
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There are barely any ads playing in my hood here in GA, almost no mailings, not a single door knock. Very few signs too.
So different from previous cycles. What a relief to have non-competitive races again in GA.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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My current prediction is Rs lose 10-12 seats in the House and 2-3 in the senate.
I will revise this if we have a prediction thread.
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Greg Orman ran in 2014, a midterm election for an unpopular Obama. This is a very different circumstance and the Democrat running there is not a typical Democrat. Marshall is also just a bad candidate. He looks completely panicked out there lately when he speaks to the media.
The state has elected a Democrat as Governor the last two times, but might elect a Republican there. However, a bunch of people who will switch to support a Republican Governor are going to consciously vote for a Democrat for Senate to split their ticket. Kansas Senate is probably 50/50 right now.
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What a relief to have non-competitive races again in GA.”
You don’t think the Governor’s race is competitive.
By the way, I am sure Big Joe A-hole will be behind someone named Bottoms, right?
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ansas Senate is probably 50/50 right now.”
I think it is more like 90-10
Polymarket has it 62-38.
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However, a bunch of people who will switch to support a Republican Governor are going to consciously vote for a Democrat for Senate to split their ticket. “
LOL
To dream, the impossible dream…..
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“You don’t think the Governor’s race is competitive.”
All I can tell you is that after a flurry of mailings from the Jackson campaign after the primary, they all completely stopped. A few ads hit my phone around the same time, and those too are long gone.
I haven’t looked at polls but political activity is basically non-existent here. Based on what I see on the ground, it doesn’t seem like we are in the midst of a competitive election, certainly nothing compared to previous cycles when I had ppl knocking down my door and had a mailbox full of ads every day.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Seems like the governors race is competitive, Jackson’s lead is pretty thin.
Polymarket only has it 52-48. Kalshi has it 54-46.
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I see RCP has Osofff +8.1, and Jackson +1.7.
That would be a strange result if it turned out like that on election day.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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A lot of ticket splitting, hard to believe.
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“No political party can lose 25 seats in a Congressional election, which would also take into account all the redistricting Republicans did this cycle to try to make things less worse, and not lose a bunch of Senate seats.”
The 1982 midterm, amongst others, would like to have a word; -26 in the House, +1 in the Senate.
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“That would be a strange result…”
On the surface, absolutely. Lance Bottoms is a particular bad candidate, though, and the rest of the state has a thing against Atlanta.
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There are definitely some Ossoff-Jackson voters, mostly out in the rural sticks. Folks who are struggling, but are also still fighting the War Between the States, so voting for a Black candidate is obviously a non-starter for them. I personally know a few, very nice people actually.
If Ossoff +8 is correct, then Bottoms +3/+4 seems right. That makes the Kalshi play that J-Hole referenced an intriguing play.
Big Joe, A-Hole
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Handle stealing alert. I am deleting the fake Jan post
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I stand corrected. There is a Senate race in New Jersey. I have not seen any ads or any stories about it. Booker does not need to spend any money or make any appearances.
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Jason – How are your scrapple sculpting skills?
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Will get a new thread up before 10 am, but in the meantime, the Marist poll of Texas from September was Talafreako up 6. Of course they are one of the biggest gaslighting pollsters there is.
This morning they have the freak up only two, 47/45.
Essentially Marist is conceding Freak’s defeat
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Same poll has Abbott up 49/45. If MARIST has any Republican up FOUR, there is no way that he will lose
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Heaven and earth may pass away, but no Republican up 4 in a Marist poll will ever lose
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There are two distinct dynamics in this election.
The Dem argument that the cost of living is up and Trump and the Rs are to blame and somehow voting for them will make things better.
The R argument that the Dem party is now majority socialist and voting for Rs is a vote against socialism and the extreme view espoused by many Dem candidates.
In my view the second argument is more compelling. However, if you believe in the “its the economy, stupid” or better yet “Its the PERCEPTION of the economy, stupid” then Rs are in trouble.
The people in ME, AK, KS, IA, TX, MI, NE, etc have to be convinced that voting for D has a bigger negative consequence than punishing Trump and Rs for high prices.
Less than 3 weeks to make that case.
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new thread, will move Jason’s comment over
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Here in PA, I have not seen ONE Garrity ad on TV. Not too many Shapiro ads but there are some.
My Rep Scott Perry is now too conservative for a district that includes Harrisburg. He is running against a former TV anchor who is pretending to be a moderate. Her ads feature “no tax on tips and overtime” and “secure border and deport all illegal criminals” and other things she would never vote for once elected. She has tons of money and has had billboards up attacking Perry for over a year.
Perry only won by 5k votes last time around with Trump on the ballot. The Harrisburg Dem vote will probably be lower without Kamala on the ballot but probably not enough to help him.
He has some good ads up exposing how Stelson is really a flaming liberal and her “conservative” positions are lies.
But I will be surprised if he wins.
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