New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +15210225

2026 Senate Forecast

SCIAAKKSMITXMEMNOHNH
Gap+2+2+2+1+0.5+0.5+1+1+2+5
Count46474849505149484746

Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….

Close in KS, AK, and MI

According to InsiderAdvantage (10-9-10; 1200 LV per state):

KANSAS

🟦Adam Hamilton 48%
🟥Roger Marshall 47%
🟨David Graham 3%

ALASKA

🟦Peltola 50%
🟥Sullivan 48%

MICHIGAN

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 46%

And another Minnesota poll showing a close race:

MINNESOTA

🟦Peggy Flanagan 47%
🟥Michele Tafoya 43%

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 10/5-7; 800 LV

64 responses to “Close in KS, AK, and MI”

  1. First

    Like

  2. Gas prices cannot be that big of a concern, given Americans will spend a billion dollars on Halloween pet costumes this year.

    Like

  3. Amazing at Pet Smart how much Halloween pet there is.

    Like

  4. Pet stuff.

    Like

  5. It might be news to many pet owners, but the pets have no idea that its Halloween, or Christmas, or Easter or any holiday.

    Like

  6. Rasmussen generic ballot is 44/49 this week. Last week was 44/47. Disappointing, but Dem+3 was probably a bit too optimistic.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. details within Rasmussen:

    🔴 Independents: R+5
    🔵 Women: D+12
    🔴 Men: R+5
    🔴 White: R+9
    🔵 Black: D+64
    🔵 Hispanic: D+4

    Hopefully independents starting to wake up that we are on the cusp of becoming a communist state.

    Like

  8. So yesterday, a news story was out there relating how Trump believes that either the Atlantic or Pacific oceans should be renamed as Trump Ocean.

    The guy is clearly nuttz and politically tone deaf and blind to how his comments and behavior a few weeks before the election will bring negative election results that will bring great harm to Trump’s agenda and harm to the nation.

    Like

  9. At my local station, prices are down 20 cents from last week. Still too high but we are down 2 refineries (gone), sniffy and pooty keep doing stupid sheot; and ca gas taxes increased over summer.

    Like

  10. Sadly, I expect even more stupid “shoot all the Republican candidates in the foot” statements from Trump in the next 3 weeks.

    Very dumb election strategy to shift the voters’ focus from the dangerout and goofy ideas of the D candidates and instead shine the spotlight on Trump and his idiotic and egotictical statements.

    I have NEVER seen a more DENSE president who repeatedly goes out of his way to cause his own political harm amd political and policy undoing.

    Someone needs to take him to the woodshed and have a “come to Jesus” moment.

    Like

  11. Best way to prove Trump is not a crazed dictator would be to hold off on raiding a Democratic congressperson’s until after the midterms.

    Trump does not choose the best way.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. sniffy (no proof of drug use) and pooty keep doing stupid sheot

    Putina thinks it is stupid for fight back and take the war to Russia.

    Like

  13. So yesterday, a news story was out there relating how Trump believes that either the Atlantic or Pacific oceans should be renamed as Trump Ocean.”

    Zzzzz…. looks like Trump trolled Walt.

    Like

  14. Trump appeared to joke that the new name could be in honor of him. “We call it ‘Trump Ocean’ or ‘Ocean of the Americas,’ something like that,” Trump said as the crowd laughed and applauded. “Before I get out, I think we should have an ocean. And we need a great river.”

    He already ruled out the Mississippi so Walt doesn’t have to worry. But none of the WV rivers are safe.

    Like

  15. Jhole,,

    My wife looked up the menu ay Final Cut and said it is quite a bot lower now than when I ate there years ago.

    Your prices you quote are now about right i guess.

    Thank you for your kind offer, but I will have to pass.

    It is impossible to know what ny chore schedule is, plus Uber driver schedule for Goofball at the Rescue Mission.

    BTW, he call this morning to pencil on Oct. 29 for a doctor appt… sigh…

    Oh.. gotta run, the clothes in the washer and dryer need tended to…

    Like

  16. The freepassers are now advocating for higher gas prices. Who knew?

    Like

  17. The freepassers are now advocating for higher gas prices.

    Zzzzzzzzzzzz

    Like

  18. GOP continues to stay even in Florida returned mailed ballots compared to the same rate in 2024.

    No blue wave showing up in Florida yet.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. I am still researching and studying the best way to sest the co Crete joints in driveway, and how to best fix the other hairline cracks.

    Saw a video by Amish gut Amos (?) Yoder…o. how to use a spritz spray of calcium chloride and the a spritz spray of sodium carbonate (?) [Same stuff you put in water softener] and how to fix hairline cracks…these two things interact chemically and create crystals and fix the hairline crack internally….

    Saturday, I again went over the backer rod and hammered it down to be a consistent 1/2 inch deep to get ready to apply the caulk. I just need everything to dry out from the rain from Sunday.

    Like

  20. How many Ukrainians have to die before Putina will let them fight back?

    Like

  21. BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF

    Valid votes:
    🟨 Flávio Bolsonaro: 52.8%
    🟦 Lula Da Silva: 47.2%

    AtlasIntel (A) |Oct 3–8 | 5,026 | ±1%

    Latin America is turning out all commie dictators at the same time we are becoming a commie state.

    Like

  22. I am becoming increasingly disappointed with the bongino report. I like Dan, he means well, but his web page is quickly deteriorating. Case in point, over the weekend a link to a new “poll” showing the GOP leading most of the senate races. So I click on it, and its not a link to a polling firm, but to an X page where someone pointed out that if you follow just the co/efficient polls, done over the course of the last couple of months, that the GOP would hold the senate. But some of these polls are stale and no longer relevant.

    But its very sloppy journalism and I can see where its headed. If we get clobbered in the house and lose or only barely hold the senate, sites like Bongino will cry about fraud, etc., because of the expectations they built up by posting misleading headlines.

    Like

  23. Fascinating watching the Florida numbers on returned ballots. Of course Dems requested more ballots than the GOP, but so far the GOP is slightly ahead in terms of out-performing the 2024 numbers at this time. The group that is off is the “No Party Affiliation.” This could be important because if the narrative is true that independents are eager to show up and vote against the GOP, they aren’t seemingly too eager in Florida.

    Like

  24. After reading “The Iron Broom” it is crystal clear how DEI hiring practices are based in communist ideology. When the commies took over, people of skill who make a larger wage were either offed or sent to a gulag or demoted, or whatever, to be replaced by incompetent people whose only qualification was loyalty to the Communist Party, and willingness to oppress others under his command.

    So it didn’t matter at all to the gov’t how many people suffered due to the incompetence everywhere, as only compliance and enforcement mattered.

    Same with DEI, don’t hire based on merit, but on checking some other box, causing the consumer or customer to suffer under the incompetence. DEI is just a foreshadow of what is to come if the commies take control of the USA.

    Like

  25. hank you for your kind offer, but I will have to pass.

    It is impossible to know what ny chore schedule is, plus Uber driver schedule for Goofball at the Rescue Mission.”

    It’s an open ended offer.

    Next time I go to Charles Town, will let you know.

    Like

  26. In Brazil, so far so good.

    But the incumbent has a lot of power and the courts and electoral commission on his side, so anything could still happen, second round is only on October 25th. There could still be an “October surprise”.

    But Polymarket bettors are confident.

    https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election

    Like

  27. It is impossible to know what ny chore schedule is”

    I guess “I have to go meet an A-hole at the casino” won’t get you off chores, huh?

    Like

  28. I have no problem with the raid on Omar’s house, coded WW Eleven.

    This woman should be in jail and if it does turn out she is an immigration fraud, deported. I don’t care if it is before or after the election.

    Like

  29. agreed on Omar…I suspect Trump moved on it now to remind his core supporters why they elected him and to get out and vote to keep it going.

    Like

  30. Good news. Change Research-D has the Florida Gov race tied:

    Jolly (D) 47
    Donalds (R) 47

    Why good news? I have been concerned about many house races where Change Research-D has shown strong numbers for Dems. But now I know they are gaslighting. Donalds will win easily and the GOP in Florida is currently outpacing Dems in returned mail-in ballots compared to the rate of each party two years ago.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. GOP mail return rate in FLORIDA is 23% so far, while Dems are at 22%, but the narrative is that the GOP is sitting this one out.

    Like

  32. A lack formwr slave rememvrrs the Civil War.

    “De Yankees come. First thing they look for was money. They put a pistol right in my forehead and say: ‘I got to have your money, where is it?’” That is what Lewis Evans, a black man interviewed near Winnsboro, South Carolina said the Yankees invaders did to him when they arrived at his home.He was about 96 years old when interviewed in 1937, living in a two-room house and had been born enslaved around 1841.

    When the Yankee bluecoats reached his place, the men were gone and the only people left behind were women, children, and the enslaved. Evans had no money to give them. A girl named Caroline did. They took it.Then the Yankees stripped the place. They took the geese, the chickens, and everything else worth carrying. They cleaned out the smokehouse, emptied the corn crib, and drove the cattle out of the pasture. What they could not haul they burned: the gin-house and the cotton. On the way out the Yankees shot cows and hogs and left the carcasses in the yard. Evans said the smell hung there for weeks.

    Life did not improve with this new “Freedom”. He married Mary Douglas, and a Yankee took a fancy to her and carried her off. She was gone a long time. By the time she came back he had married again.

    What was done to Evans was the ordinary work of that invading Union army across the South in 1865, and the hardship fell on white and Black alike. With the men off fighting, Yankee soldiers pushed into houses where women and children remained, cursed, and demanded money, silver, jewels, and whiskey. Plenty of those “Yankee” men were foreign-born, only a short time off the boat, marching around southern America plundering multi-generational Americans. If they could not carry something away with them, they would often ruin it: family portraits, beds, tables, dressers, pianos, books, etc.

    Then they usually took the meat and the corn, the food for both white and black families, and left everybody starving for the rest of the year and beyond.

    Fannie Griffin, a black woman of Columbia called the day the Yankees came the worst time she ever had. Rosa Starke said they left a thousand people cold and hungry. For a great many Black Southerners, the worst day was not the day they were born in slavery. It was the day the Union army arrived.

    Things public schools censor, omit, and ignore. -RJSource: Interview with Lewis Evans, near Winnsboro, Fairfield County, South Carolina, by W. W. Dixon, Federal Writers’ Project, about 1937, in Slave Narratives: A Folk History of Slavery in the United States from Interviews with Former Slaves, South Carolina Narratives, Volume XIV, Part 2, pages 30–33, Library of Congress, Born in Slavery: Slave Narratives from the Federal Writers’ Project, 1936–1938.

    Like

  33. Morning Consult generic ballot: Dem 50 / GOP 43

    Their track record:

    2022: They said Dem +5 turned out GOP +2.8
    2020: They said Dem +7 turned out Dem +3.1

    Like

  34. Zzzzzzzzz. I won’t lose sleep over Walt’s post. Did any of the former slaves want slavery brought back?

    Like

  35. PUT THIS AWAY FOR FURTHER REFERENCE

    Trump disapproval rating by selected states (as per Newsweek) on Oct 12, 2026

    *****denotes a big election there for senate , or other big important races on state level

    HI -61

    VT -53

    MD -53

    MA -48

    CA -47 could impact HofR seats there

    CT -46

    WA -41

    NY -41

    RI -40

    OR -39

    NH -37****

    IL -37

    CO -37

    MN -36****

    NJ -35

    VA -32

    ME -32*****

    MI -26******

    PA -22

    WI -19*****

    OH -18****

    ALASKA -16****

    KS -1******

    Like

  36. I just got back from grocery shopping. I would stay longer here, but I have to mix up 4 gallons of stuff to go soraye the 8 boxwoods again.

    Like

  37. The South was not invaded. Federal authority was restored. Both can be true.

    The idea the South was “invaded” is Lost Cause nonsense.

    Like

  38. @PpollingNumbers

    New – Senate poll – Nebraska 🔴 Pete Ricketts (Inc) 46% 🟡 Dan Osborn 43% NPA Polling – 10/12

    Like

  39. Nebraska and South Carolina are not our problems. And my confidence in Iowa is growing. Our problem is Kansas.

    Then we need MI, ME, TX, OH, MN or NH to get to 50.

    This might sound odd, but I think MI might be the easiest get. Voters often put bad candidates into the U.S. House of Representatives. But there is a history of holding senators to a higher standard. Abdul El-Sayed is an Islamic Terrorist. He hates the Iron Dome. Full Stop. Disqualifying. He is an Egyptian national.

    If we fall short in Michigan, then Maine is the next best option as Collins has a good chance of holding on against a bad candidate.

    Ohio is difficult because Brown is like an incumbent. I am starting to lose hope for Texas. And MN and NH are lucy pulling the football away.

    Like

  40. oh and I forgot about Alaska. We need that two, or if Sullivan fails, then we need two from the above list.

    Like

  41. If the South was invaded, how was it then that Ft. Monroe in Hampton, VA was union territory before the war, during the war, and after the war?

    Like

  42. https://share.google/eQ7sGWZpO7fE3MTK1

    Walt – Do you think this slave thought the day the Union army arrived was the worst day of his life?

    Like

  43. Yankees invaders”

    Yeah, I see some pushback on this already.

    The Yankees were not invaders of anything. They were in their own country.

    Like

  44.  For a great many Black Southerners, the worst day was not the day they were born in slavery. It was the day the Union army arrived.”

    Zzzzzzz…..

    Maybe they should then have self deported to somewhere they could still be slaves?

    Like

  45. southern America plundering multi-generational Americans.”

    Wait.

    I thought they no longer wanted to be Americans.

    Like

  46. Things public schools censor, omit, and ignore.”

    Thank God.

    They are fed enough garbage already.

    Like

  47. Trump disapproval rating by selected states (as per Newsweek) on Oct 12, 2026″

    Yeah, I read where the disapproval rating was high in all these states before the 2024 election too.

    Liked by 1 person

  48. Had to spray 10 boxwoods.

    Not 8…

    Like

  49. There is no doubt there was much suffering of the population in the South during and after the war.

    But the South wanted the war, started the war, and chose to fight and pursue the war mostly on its own territory. Those that led the South into this war and supported it bear the consequences.

    And the “I would rather be a slave than be freed by the Yankees” sounds like Wes’ “slavery was bad BUT”.

    A lot of apologists for the South like to say blacks were better off under slavery because they were housed and fed while as free men many struggled to survive.

    Considering the number of slaves who tried to escape (and did escape) I don’t find this is a convincing argument.

    Like

  50. I am also curious about the interviews of former slaves in the 1930s. By that point, former slave with memories of their life in slavery would have been at least 75. Also, who conducted the interviews? Would a former slave feel comfortable and trusting telling a white interviewer how much whites mistreated them while still living in a very segregated society?

    Like

  51. Brazil had slavery until 1888. Did any American slaves move there after emancipation because they were angry they had been freed in the U.S.?

    Asking for a friend.

    Like

  52. I know BL said a Cleveland/Tampa ALCS would be a ratings disaster (and it may end up so), but this game is much better than the slop I witnessed in the NLCS tonight. Yes, there were good moments on both sides in Milwaukee, but there was also a fair bit of garbage ball that I would not have expected from professionals.

    Like

  53. I know BL said a Cleveland/Tampa ALCS would be a ratings disaster (and it may end up so), but this game is much better than the slop I witnessed in the NLCS tonight. Yes, there were good moments on both sides in Milwaukee, but there was also a fair bit of garbage ball that I would not have expected from professionals.

    Like

  54. Slavery was a bad institutuion in the U.S. from 1619 to 1865. I do not dispute that.

    I made and agree with that statement.

    The Cherokee Indians owning 600 hundred Black slaves as late as 1865 was a bad thing.

    Slavery is a bad thing today in various parts of the world.

    Slavery was a bad thing in ancient civilizations.

    I believe nobody should be a slave of another.

    I am not even sure that one person should expect another person to do chores.

    ************************

    “HERE YE, HERE YE…Be it fully understood and accepted by all, that the U.S. Reeducation Authorities and Determiners of Truth have decreed and ordered that from now to eternity everyone MUST BELIEVE the following (and if a Yonex shall dare to share any info to the contrary then they must be vociferously attacked and preferably boiled in oil):

    “There was no harm done to any free Blacks nor any Black slaves in the south as a result of Union troop actions–military or otherwise–during the Civil War. As soon as Northern troops arrived a magic wand was waved and all Blacks magically lived in a Nirvana of unbelievable peace and prosperity.”

    “No Blacks–free or slave–were killed, lost their lives, mistreated, stolen from, abused, disadvantaged, taken advantage of, beaten, threatened, or harmed in any way or suffered any physical, mental, or psychological hardship at the hands of the Union soldiers during the Civil war or as a result of their military actions.”

    “Just like there were no Blacks who were slave owners in the south, no free Blacks in the south who supported the south during the Civil war, not even ONE free Black who voluntarily joined and served in the Confederate army and who were captured by union troops, put in prison and kept there because he would not take a loyalty oath to the Union and was bailed out of northern jail by a white southern slave owner.”

    Got it.

    [Below the *****, NONE of the above is true, but I GOT it. Let us erase any and all inconvenient facts that dispute any of the above.]

    “And PLEASE let us ALL remember that, despite factual records that prove otherwise, 100% of every white person in the south supported slavery, 100% owned slaves, 100% beat all their slaves every Tuesday just because, 100% supported the confederacy and did NOT take up arms against the confederacy, and 0% of whites in the south did anything to help slaves in any way. And 0% of white slaves owners made legal provisions to free their slaves upon their death. Any and all historical data that proves or suggests otherwise will be burned or otherwise destroyed and never spoken of.”

    “Nor were there any men in the south who left the south to go north and join the Union army to fight against the south, and it is a lie to say there were pockets of the south that took up arms and remained loyal to the union throughout the ENTIRE Civil war and were never controlled militarily by the Confederacy. Nor were there any whites in the north thst were opposed to fighting the southern states, nor were there any whites in the north that were racists back before 1865.”

    “And the world would be a better place if we had just killed off all whites, whether they owned slaves or not, in the south in 1865 once the North won the Civil War.”

    And the Civil War was all about slavery.

    “And the two sides were definitely: states where slavery was legal vs. states where slavery was illegal (please ignore the slave states who joined the northern side in the war and procided troops, and please ignore WV being admitted to the union as a state and being permitted to have slavery as a new union state).”

    Got it.

    >>>>>>>>>>

    And some people talk about revisionist history…and talk about how some on one side ot some in power in some countries want to erase historical truths because it does not fit the “official” party line, and the need for reeducation camps to reprogram everyone who “fails to parrot the official line”…places like North Korea.

    GOT IT, COMRAD !!

    ***************

    (Some of you people on here are absolutely loony on lots of things related to the civil war… and make all sorts of wild, unfounded, untrue charges and aspersions against me for what I posted…)

    Believe what you want, whether it is actually true or not.

    Go ahead and be like the average person in America wjo has a coxkeyed view on lots of things. But do not expect me to accept history as you see and interpret it.

    As Bitter would say, “GFY”

    Like

  55. I

    Tonight, I quickly taught myself how to play “Ripples” by the Grateful Dead on my acoustic guitar.

    It will take me about 6 months to learn the words to the song.

    ALSO…

    Watched two fascinating @ half hour each YOUTUBE videos about Patsy Cline [who lived in Winchester VA ,22 miles south of here]. She died in a plane crash in 1963. She was a relative of the lead guitarist in our Hedgesville WV band I was in @1966. I never met her, but she would come to Hedgesville to visit her relatives. She moved to Nashville after becoming famous and lived there for a few years prior to her tragic death in 1963. Buried in Winchester.

    Like

  56. I did not play guitar in the 2 bands I was in during college years. I played keyboard. Did have a terrible cheap acoustic guitar and later an electric guitar the I just plunked on badly. Wife gifted me guitar and guitar lesson a few years ago and I amuse myself every week.

    My son and I sound pretty good.

    Play country and 60s and 70s rock.

    Like

  57. Play every week when I am not doing chores, playomg bridge…and endlessly defending slavery.

    😉

    Like

  58. “playomg bridge”

    Walt, I knew that your Bridge skills were formidable, but I did not realize that they were OMG level.

    Like

  59. The Indians (or whatever they are called now) managed to do what my Boys in Blue could not, make me smile. Seriously, that comeback and subsequent stomping of TB was remarkable, and stealing Game 1 like that can take a bit of wind out of their sails. Might shape up to be better than than NLCS, LA has too many weaknesses, even if they win three straight at home, I have my doubts they’ll win anything back in MKE.

    Like

  60. Walt – Very owned slaves in the South but all benefitted from the system. The war was about slavery. Read the Cornerstone Speech and the CSA Constitution.

    Blacks were not permitted to join the rebel army. Blacks who travelled with the army were slaves brought along with their white masters to perform labor. Many escaped to Union lines when they could.

    I don’t think all whites in the South should have been killed. Just officers who had sworn allegiance to the U.S. when they served in the army before the war. Especially Lee.

    Like

  61. https://nypost.com/2026/10/12/opinion/democrats-have-knives-out-for-fetterman-but-risk-stabbing-themselves/

    Fetterman votes 99% with the Left. He just won’t support destroying Israel. Even if he caucused with the Republicans, he will not vote with them on many issues.

    Like

  62. We heard you the first time.

    Like

  63. GF – I want the Brewers to win the WS this year. I guess they can own the title for 2 seasons if the strike happens. It is unbelievable that billionaire owners fighting millionaire players are going to F up the game

    Like

Leave a Reply