New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +15210225

2026 Senate Forecast

SCIAAKKSMITXMEMNOHNH
Gap+2+2+2+1+0.5+0.5+1+1+2+5
Count46474849505149484746

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Close in KS, AK, and MI

According to InsiderAdvantage (10-9-10; 1200 LV per state):

KANSAS

🟦Adam Hamilton 48%
🟥Roger Marshall 47%
🟨David Graham 3%

ALASKA

🟦Peltola 50%
🟥Sullivan 48%

MICHIGAN

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 46%

And another Minnesota poll showing a close race:

MINNESOTA

🟦Peggy Flanagan 47%
🟥Michele Tafoya 43%

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 10/5-7; 800 LV

48 responses to “Close in KS, AK, and MI”

  1. First

    Like

  2. Gas prices cannot be that big of a concern, given Americans will spend a billion dollars on Halloween pet costumes this year.

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  3. Amazing at Pet Smart how much Halloween pet there is.

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  4. Pet stuff.

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  5. It might be news to many pet owners, but the pets have no idea that its Halloween, or Christmas, or Easter or any holiday.

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  6. Rasmussen generic ballot is 44/49 this week. Last week was 44/47. Disappointing, but Dem+3 was probably a bit too optimistic.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. details within Rasmussen:

    🔴 Independents: R+5
    🔵 Women: D+12
    🔴 Men: R+5
    🔴 White: R+9
    🔵 Black: D+64
    🔵 Hispanic: D+4

    Hopefully independents starting to wake up that we are on the cusp of becoming a communist state.

    Like

  8. So yesterday, a news story was out there relating how Trump believes that either the Atlantic or Pacific oceans should be renamed as Trump Ocean.

    The guy is clearly nuttz and politically tone deaf and blind to how his comments and behavior a few weeks before the election will bring negative election results that will bring great harm to Trump’s agenda and harm to the nation.

    Like

  9. At my local station, prices are down 20 cents from last week. Still too high but we are down 2 refineries (gone), sniffy and pooty keep doing stupid sheot; and ca gas taxes increased over summer.

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  10. Sadly, I expect even more stupid “shoot all the Republican candidates in the foot” statements from Trump in the next 3 weeks.

    Very dumb election strategy to shift the voters’ focus from the dangerout and goofy ideas of the D candidates and instead shine the spotlight on Trump and his idiotic and egotictical statements.

    I have NEVER seen a more DENSE president who repeatedly goes out of his way to cause his own political harm amd political and policy undoing.

    Someone needs to take him to the woodshed and have a “come to Jesus” moment.

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  11. Best way to prove Trump is not a crazed dictator would be to hold off on raiding a Democratic congressperson’s until after the midterms.

    Trump does not choose the best way.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. sniffy (no proof of drug use) and pooty keep doing stupid sheot

    Putina thinks it is stupid for fight back and take the war to Russia.

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  13. So yesterday, a news story was out there relating how Trump believes that either the Atlantic or Pacific oceans should be renamed as Trump Ocean.”

    Zzzzz…. looks like Trump trolled Walt.

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  14. Trump appeared to joke that the new name could be in honor of him. “We call it ‘Trump Ocean’ or ‘Ocean of the Americas,’ something like that,” Trump said as the crowd laughed and applauded. “Before I get out, I think we should have an ocean. And we need a great river.”

    He already ruled out the Mississippi so Walt doesn’t have to worry. But none of the WV rivers are safe.

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  15. Jhole,,

    My wife looked up the menu ay Final Cut and said it is quite a bot lower now than when I ate there years ago.

    Your prices you quote are now about right i guess.

    Thank you for your kind offer, but I will have to pass.

    It is impossible to know what ny chore schedule is, plus Uber driver schedule for Goofball at the Rescue Mission.

    BTW, he call this morning to pencil on Oct. 29 for a doctor appt… sigh…

    Oh.. gotta run, the clothes in the washer and dryer need tended to…

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  16. The freepassers are now advocating for higher gas prices. Who knew?

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  17. The freepassers are now advocating for higher gas prices.

    Zzzzzzzzzzzz

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  18. GOP continues to stay even in Florida returned mailed ballots compared to the same rate in 2024.

    No blue wave showing up in Florida yet.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. I am still researching and studying the best way to sest the co Crete joints in driveway, and how to best fix the other hairline cracks.

    Saw a video by Amish gut Amos (?) Yoder…o. how to use a spritz spray of calcium chloride and the a spritz spray of sodium carbonate (?) [Same stuff you put in water softener] and how to fix hairline cracks…these two things interact chemically and create crystals and fix the hairline crack internally….

    Saturday, I again went over the backer rod and hammered it down to be a consistent 1/2 inch deep to get ready to apply the caulk. I just need everything to dry out from the rain from Sunday.

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  20. How many Ukrainians have to die before Putina will let them fight back?

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  21. BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF

    Valid votes:
    🟨 Flávio Bolsonaro: 52.8%
    🟦 Lula Da Silva: 47.2%

    AtlasIntel (A) |Oct 3–8 | 5,026 | ±1%

    Latin America is turning out all commie dictators at the same time we are becoming a commie state.

    Like

  22. I am becoming increasingly disappointed with the bongino report. I like Dan, he means well, but his web page is quickly deteriorating. Case in point, over the weekend a link to a new “poll” showing the GOP leading most of the senate races. So I click on it, and its not a link to a polling firm, but to an X page where someone pointed out that if you follow just the co/efficient polls, done over the course of the last couple of months, that the GOP would hold the senate. But some of these polls are stale and no longer relevant.

    But its very sloppy journalism and I can see where its headed. If we get clobbered in the house and lose or only barely hold the senate, sites like Bongino will cry about fraud, etc., because of the expectations they built up by posting misleading headlines.

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  23. Fascinating watching the Florida numbers on returned ballots. Of course Dems requested more ballots than the GOP, but so far the GOP is slightly ahead in terms of out-performing the 2024 numbers at this time. The group that is off is the “No Party Affiliation.” This could be important because if the narrative is true that independents are eager to show up and vote against the GOP, they aren’t seemingly too eager in Florida.

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  24. After reading “The Iron Broom” it is crystal clear how DEI hiring practices are based in communist ideology. When the commies took over, people of skill who make a larger wage were either offed or sent to a gulag or demoted, or whatever, to be replaced by incompetent people whose only qualification was loyalty to the Communist Party, and willingness to oppress others under his command.

    So it didn’t matter at all to the gov’t how many people suffered due to the incompetence everywhere, as only compliance and enforcement mattered.

    Same with DEI, don’t hire based on merit, but on checking some other box, causing the consumer or customer to suffer under the incompetence. DEI is just a foreshadow of what is to come if the commies take control of the USA.

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  25. hank you for your kind offer, but I will have to pass.

    It is impossible to know what ny chore schedule is, plus Uber driver schedule for Goofball at the Rescue Mission.”

    It’s an open ended offer.

    Next time I go to Charles Town, will let you know.

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  26. In Brazil, so far so good.

    But the incumbent has a lot of power and the courts and electoral commission on his side, so anything could still happen, second round is only on October 25th. There could still be an “October surprise”.

    But Polymarket bettors are confident.

    https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election

    Like

  27. It is impossible to know what ny chore schedule is”

    I guess “I have to go meet an A-hole at the casino” won’t get you off chores, huh?

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  28. I have no problem with the raid on Omar’s house, coded WW Eleven.

    This woman should be in jail and if it does turn out she is an immigration fraud, deported. I don’t care if it is before or after the election.

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  29. agreed on Omar…I suspect Trump moved on it now to remind his core supporters why they elected him and to get out and vote to keep it going.

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  30. Good news. Change Research-D has the Florida Gov race tied:

    Jolly (D) 47
    Donalds (R) 47

    Why good news? I have been concerned about many house races where Change Research-D has shown strong numbers for Dems. But now I know they are gaslighting. Donalds will win easily and the GOP in Florida is currently outpacing Dems in returned mail-in ballots compared to the rate of each party two years ago.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. GOP mail return rate in FLORIDA is 23% so far, while Dems are at 22%, but the narrative is that the GOP is sitting this one out.

    Like

  32. A lack formwr slave rememvrrs the Civil War.

    “De Yankees come. First thing they look for was money. They put a pistol right in my forehead and say: ‘I got to have your money, where is it?’” That is what Lewis Evans, a black man interviewed near Winnsboro, South Carolina said the Yankees invaders did to him when they arrived at his home.He was about 96 years old when interviewed in 1937, living in a two-room house and had been born enslaved around 1841.

    When the Yankee bluecoats reached his place, the men were gone and the only people left behind were women, children, and the enslaved. Evans had no money to give them. A girl named Caroline did. They took it.Then the Yankees stripped the place. They took the geese, the chickens, and everything else worth carrying. They cleaned out the smokehouse, emptied the corn crib, and drove the cattle out of the pasture. What they could not haul they burned: the gin-house and the cotton. On the way out the Yankees shot cows and hogs and left the carcasses in the yard. Evans said the smell hung there for weeks.

    Life did not improve with this new “Freedom”. He married Mary Douglas, and a Yankee took a fancy to her and carried her off. She was gone a long time. By the time she came back he had married again.

    What was done to Evans was the ordinary work of that invading Union army across the South in 1865, and the hardship fell on white and Black alike. With the men off fighting, Yankee soldiers pushed into houses where women and children remained, cursed, and demanded money, silver, jewels, and whiskey. Plenty of those “Yankee” men were foreign-born, only a short time off the boat, marching around southern America plundering multi-generational Americans. If they could not carry something away with them, they would often ruin it: family portraits, beds, tables, dressers, pianos, books, etc.

    Then they usually took the meat and the corn, the food for both white and black families, and left everybody starving for the rest of the year and beyond.

    Fannie Griffin, a black woman of Columbia called the day the Yankees came the worst time she ever had. Rosa Starke said they left a thousand people cold and hungry. For a great many Black Southerners, the worst day was not the day they were born in slavery. It was the day the Union army arrived.

    Things public schools censor, omit, and ignore. -RJSource: Interview with Lewis Evans, near Winnsboro, Fairfield County, South Carolina, by W. W. Dixon, Federal Writers’ Project, about 1937, in Slave Narratives: A Folk History of Slavery in the United States from Interviews with Former Slaves, South Carolina Narratives, Volume XIV, Part 2, pages 30–33, Library of Congress, Born in Slavery: Slave Narratives from the Federal Writers’ Project, 1936–1938.

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  33. Morning Consult generic ballot: Dem 50 / GOP 43

    Their track record:

    2022: They said Dem +5 turned out GOP +2.8
    2020: They said Dem +7 turned out Dem +3.1

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  34. Zzzzzzzzz. I won’t lose sleep over Walt’s post. Did any of the former slaves want slavery brought back?

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  35. PUT THIS AWAY FOR FURTHER REFERENCE

    Trump disapproval rating by selected states (as per Newsweek) on Oct 12, 2026

    *****denotes a big election there for senate , or other big important races on state level

    HI -61

    VT -53

    MD -53

    MA -48

    CA -47 could impact HofR seats there

    CT -46

    WA -41

    NY -41

    RI -40

    OR -39

    NH -37****

    IL -37

    CO -37

    MN -36****

    NJ -35

    VA -32

    ME -32*****

    MI -26******

    PA -22

    WI -19*****

    OH -18****

    ALASKA -16****

    KS -1******

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  36. I just got back from grocery shopping. I would stay longer here, but I have to mix up 4 gallons of stuff to go soraye the 8 boxwoods again.

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  37. The South was not invaded. Federal authority was restored. Both can be true.

    The idea the South was “invaded” is Lost Cause nonsense.

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  38. @PpollingNumbers

    New – Senate poll – Nebraska 🔴 Pete Ricketts (Inc) 46% 🟡 Dan Osborn 43% NPA Polling – 10/12

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  39. Nebraska and South Carolina are not our problems. And my confidence in Iowa is growing. Our problem is Kansas.

    Then we need MI, ME, TX, OH, MN or NH to get to 50.

    This might sound odd, but I think MI might be the easiest get. Voters often put bad candidates into the U.S. House of Representatives. But there is a history of holding senators to a higher standard. Abdul El-Sayed is an Islamic Terrorist. He hates the Iron Dome. Full Stop. Disqualifying. He is an Egyptian national.

    If we fall short in Michigan, then Maine is the next best option as Collins has a good chance of holding on against a bad candidate.

    Ohio is difficult because Brown is like an incumbent. I am starting to lose hope for Texas. And MN and NH are lucy pulling the football away.

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  40. oh and I forgot about Alaska. We need that two, or if Sullivan fails, then we need two from the above list.

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  41. If the South was invaded, how was it then that Ft. Monroe in Hampton, VA was union territory before the war, during the war, and after the war?

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  42. https://share.google/eQ7sGWZpO7fE3MTK1

    Walt – Do you think this slave thought the day the Union army arrived was the worst day of his life?

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  43. Yankees invaders”

    Yeah, I see some pushback on this already.

    The Yankees were not invaders of anything. They were in their own country.

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  44.  For a great many Black Southerners, the worst day was not the day they were born in slavery. It was the day the Union army arrived.”

    Zzzzzzz…..

    Maybe they should then have self deported to somewhere they could still be slaves?

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  45. southern America plundering multi-generational Americans.”

    Wait.

    I thought they no longer wanted to be Americans.

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  46. Things public schools censor, omit, and ignore.”

    Thank God.

    They are fed enough garbage already.

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  47. Trump disapproval rating by selected states (as per Newsweek) on Oct 12, 2026″

    Yeah, I read where the disapproval rating was high in all these states before the 2024 election too.

    Liked by 1 person

  48. Had to spray 10 boxwoods.

    Not 8…

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