According to the Washington Post and Emerson College
MAINE
🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 46%
🟦 Troy Jackson: 50%
Washington Post (D+) | 9/30 – 10/5 | 800 LV 3.6 MoE
IOWA
🟥 Hinson: 47%
🟦 Turek: 45%
Emerson (B-) | 10/5-6 | 650 LV 3.8 MoE
- Close in Maine and Iowa
- Strange Arizona Poll
- Close in Michigan
- Is New York this Close?
- Is California this Close?
New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +13 | 211 | 224 |
***There are no “freepassers” here***
Close in Maine and Iowa
88 responses to “Close in Maine and Iowa”
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From Eric Daugherty:
Stephen Miller just DROPPED this truth nuke:
“The Democratic Party has only two kinds of people in it in Washington today.”
“Democrat socialist extremists who support JIHAD, open borders, abolished jails, abolished prisons, abolished ICE, abolished border patrol, abolished free markets, abolished fossil fuels, abolished capitalism…”
“…And you have the COWARDS like Schumer, like former Senator Brown, who will do whatever they are told to do, they are ordered to do by AOC and Jayapal and El Sayed, and every other person in that crazy dangerous clown car that is the Democrat Party!”
Name ONE Democrat leader who’s stood up to the far left this year
Schumer got attacked by his own base and folded. Now he’s out raising money for El Sayed!
He is captivated by socialists. We cannot hand Congress over to Chuck and Hakeem Jeffries
There are no moderates left. THEY ARE NOT PRO-AMERICA. Rush the polls and vote against every Democrat in November!
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In 2024 there were several pollsters who stood out as being particularly accurate. I know there is Atlas Intel from Brazil, but they just show up at the end and do not poll all along. But for the pollsters who do, they have a tougher challenge. There are seven who stand out above the others for accuracy. All got A or B grades in 2024, unlike AARP, Siena, Fox News, YouGov, Marist or CNN who all got C or below.
The Seven are Co/efficient, Big Data, Quantus, Trafalgar Insider Advantage, Rasmussen and Emerson. I suspect that Big Data is compromised this year given Baris’ emotional reaction to the actions of Trump. But just focusing on these seven pollsters, who were largely right while the others were wrong, it means we hold SC, IA, KS, ME, and AK to get to 50. Then TX, OH, MI, and MN are within range of a couple of points and can be won with even a slight movement in our direction.
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LOL
Macron is 48. His teacher (and wife) is 72
Among the slogans appearing regularly at the demonstrations is “Macron bz ta prof, pas les nôtres,” which roughly translates as “Macron, f-ck your teacher, not ours.”
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The new box is weird but if you click on “change” and then choose continue as guest you can change your handle as before.
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How do I attach the full Twitter comment.
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OW. A Black Michigan voter tells News Nation that Obama campaigning for Abdual won’t change anything.
“We love Obama. I love Obama. But listen, a pig (Abdul) by any other name is still a pig. You can put lipstick on a pig, as they say. It’s a pig.”
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“Our body, our choice”
That is what Jane Doe texted to one of the Cornell “rapists”.
“Two days after the alleged gang rape, head alleged gang rapist tells Jane Doe she’s an “amazing person” and he and the other guys are trying to stop the nasty gossip that’s been circulating. She replies: “I don’t think we should feel any shame… our body our choice”
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Bitter must be happy. The 0-4 woke Tampa Cute Little Pirates beat the Dallas Adorable Cheerleaders at home?
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MN is probably fool’s gold. But if the Dems are forced to spend money there like the Rs are forced to spend money in TX that is a win in itself.
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What is coming:
Democrats take control of both Houses of Congress
Make it impossible for Trump to get any judicial appointments through for his last two years
Take the WH in 2028
At that point (all three branches) abolish the filibuster
Expand the Supreme Court in the name of “reform”
Pack it with Justice Jackson type lefties
Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico cementing Democratic control of the Senate going forward.
Fill the Courts with nothing but lefty woke socialists
Back to Green New Deal nonsense wasting billions
Reopen the borders
Medicare for all or something similar
Rewoke the military
……and it goes on and on. Essentially, nationalize the California model. The beauty of this for Democrats is that there will be no guard rails at that point. No court oversight, no filibuster in the Senate, absolutely no checks.
As the song goes……..California Hear I Come. Ugh Welcome to the new USA.
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Here
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It could happen Phil. I pray every day that it doesn’t.
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and you left out of your list that they would steal everyone’s 401k retirement savings, you know, for the good of the people.
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Jonathan Turley, a liberal but a rational and an honorable one has sounded the alarm on all this. Read his articles.
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It’s the perfect storm, DW….and once enacted, there will be no way to put what’s been done back in the bottle. And yes, they will go after retirement savings or whatever they can get their hands on.
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FLORIDA POLL By Targoz Market Research
SENATE
🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 52%
🟦 Angie Nixon: 42%
——
GOVERNOR
🟥 Byron Donalds: 52%
🟦 David Jolly: 44%9/28-10/4 | 857 LV
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But Turley’s solution is to vote for it and hope they don’t do it.
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Not really on Turley, DW. He hasn’t written a single article advocating for election of these whackos. He is very disillusioned and has highlighted the consequences of these radicals taking power and what they will try to do. One of the few “progressives” that isn’t a hack.
John Kennedy, Hubert Humphry would be appalled at what their party has become.
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Polling is broken. Another pollster had those same fl races in the moe
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Some ev data. I cannot embed the tweet.
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Tina there is a link feature right after the italicize icon
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and then if you hit the down arrow an option for inline code. No idea how it works.
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GOP ballots being returned in Florida are cutting in to the Democrat lead, pushing Dems under 43% of ballots returned. But what’s more is the fact that in 2024 when the GOP won Florida going away, the Dems early ballot returns were +7 over the GOP. Right now its Dems +7.1 essentially the same.
The narrative pushed by the media is that Dems are jazzed to rush out and vote while the GOP is discouraged and will stay home and let the Dems have the country.
If that’s so, it hasn’t shown up in Florida yet.
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But I insist again that the electorate is un-pollable. I just saw another example where a D released an internal poll and then a major leftist pollster happened to release a poll of the same seat, same timespan, and were SEVEN points to the left of the Dem internal. This stuff is crazy and unprecedented.
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GOP gains again in Florida and its now exactly the same margin of returned ballots compared to 2024 when the GOP showed up and stomped the Dems. Now I know that the media narrative is that its a whole bunch of Republicans who are angry and want to rush out and vote commie. But that’s foolish talk. If they were not satisfied, they would stay home.
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Dw. Thanks. Will try.
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Another tactic I have seen in the house polling is that the Dems release an internal poll, but to make it look close, they included in the question some also-ran who has absolutely NO MONEY and will won’t get 1%. But they get pushed in the poll as an alternative to bleed Republican support. But nobody gets out of bed to rush to the polls to vote for someone they never heard of and didn’t know was on the ballot.
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Dw no luck.
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You can delete those last few posts with the x con posts
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LOL
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from Daugherty:
MAJOR BREAKING: Sec. Marco Rubio is hereby SANCTIONING the ENTIRE globalist International Criminal Court (ICC)
RUBIO: “Either the ICC will end its threats, or we will end the ICC.”
MARCO IS UNLEASHED 🔥
“Globalist experts that are an ocean away, they don’t care what you think. They want the International Criminal Court to do more, including the prosecution of American citizens and service members that are defending their country.”
“We expect our allies, many of whom are part of the ICC and that rely on American service members for their defense, to rein in this rogue court.”
“If they do not, the United States will continue its campaign to dismantle the ICC piece by piece, until Americans are threatened no longer.”
“They want to prosecute border patrol agents that are protecting our nation’s borders, and they want to prosecute our elected leaders that are ensuring our national security!”
“They want more power, and they want it at the EXPENSE of our sovereignty as a nation.”
“President Trump will NEVER allow the International Criminal Court to prosecute Americans. And that’s why today, the United States is sanctioning the International Criminal Court.”
This comes a couple weeks after Trump demanded the RESIGNATION from the ICC of every member nation, during his UNGA address. Pure fire.
America never joined this court. It has ZERO authority over us
Unelected globalists don’t get to put our troops and Border Patrol on trial!
THANK YOU, SECRETARY RUBIO!
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So the pollsters whose polls give Phil (and others) the urge to vomit include:
AARP
Siena/NY Times
Washington Post/GMU
CNN/SSRS
Marist
FoxNews
YouGov
Quinnipiac
PPP-DLooking back to these pollster in 2024, here are the number of times any of them over-estimated the GOP in their poll against the actual results in the battleground races:
AZ: 0
NV: 0
GA: 2 (Quinnipiac and YouGov)
NC: 0
WI: 0
MI: 0
PA: 0And many of their misses were way off, including:
CNN: D+6 in WI and D+5 in MI
Quinnipiac: D+3 in MI, D+2 in AZ
YouGov: D+4 in NV, D+5 in MI
WashPost: D+4 in GA, D+3 in WI
Marist: D+3 in WI, D+2 in MI
NY Times/Siena: D+3 in NC and WI; D+2 in NV
AARP: D+3 in WI, D+2 in PALikeLike
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RIP, Coach Ditka.
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Bitter beat me to it.
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Rumor, but could make sense. I am very skeptical of the flu explanation. Talarico is 37. Too young to be out of commission 13 days due just to the flu.
“Spencer Pratt just offered the explanation the flu story was never going to cover. His sources, he says, have James Talarico in a mental health facility, which would also explain why the Texas Democrat’s campaign has stopped putting events on the calendar in the last stretch before Election Day.
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I would say that someone who thinks there are six genders, beef and oil are dangerous, a sovereign nation shouldn’t defend itself against invaders, and that we should have no police or prisons, and says that “Jesus loves abortions” instead of “Jesus loves the little children of the world” is someone who probably belongs in a mental health institution.
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Loved Mike Ditka.
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seems word press had some security issues and pushed an update, resulting in this box. also claims there are more options but an admin would have to learn how to do it. will see if I have time at some point.
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Rasmussen Reports | 10/5-10/7 LV
US Senate Minnesota 2026
🟦Peggy Flanagan 48%
🟥Michele Tafoya 45%LikeLike
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Baris and Rasmussen have been the most pessimistic for the GOP among “the seven” pollsters as I call them.
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Will freako get a free pass for his extended absence?
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Kean in New Jersey sure didn’t
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Baris has been very accurate in the past. He missed badly in the Kentucky congressional primary. Of course that is a primary and not a GE. Still, he had his isolationist buddy tied and missed badly by ten points. Baris has been on a crusade and ranting against Trump’s policy to get involved in Iran. I’m wondering if his isolationist views are not what is coloring his recent GE polling. I hope so.
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Rasmussen I’m not sure of.
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And there it is…the GOP is now AHEAD of Dems in returned ballots in Florida, compared to 2024. The gap in 2024 ended up being D+7 for early ballots. Currently it is D+6.9.
But we are being told by the media to stay home because the election is over and Republican leaders have given up. Florida at least didn’t accept that message.
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Phil, a pollster has no business letting his personal emotions get involved. Baris exposed himself as a fraud by propping up Massie in Kentucky. If he did this once, and he clearly did, he cannot be trusted in any of the rest of his polling.
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how bad is Paxton then if he cannot defeat a guy who was so whacko he entered an asylum?
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Pretty clear freakos campaign team is caught flat footed here. It’s day 13 and he is still MIA.
IF it’s that he had a breakdown, I hope he gets well
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I tend to agree, DW. Thing is, Baris’ livelihood depends on accuracy. His private polls make him his $$. That butters his bread. Getting contracts to poll depends on his accuracy which gives him credibility and that gets him clients. Is he really willing to trade his credibility effecting his livelihood for his personal view? I don’t know. We will find out on election night.
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No asylum. The explanation of the day is now is diabetes. Just ask his enablers in the MSM. LOL
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Oh look, early voting will soon open and all of a sudden Talafreako’s “huge lead” has evaporated. Have you ever noticed that those early polls are ALWAYS wrong in one direction and NEVER the other direction? Curious thing, that. It’s an information war. The war is for control of your mind.
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a flu and type 1 are vastly different illnesses. I suppose type 1 can make you more susceptible to the flu. However for freako, that still does not explain his 13 days being mia. It does not explain the shifting stories of flu to type 1
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sorry, but if a candidate was just sick with the flu and in the hospital, during a contested election, he would be putting out social media stuff constantly despite being sick. Even bad flu cases don’t rob you of moments to just snap a selfie and post something to reassure everyone you are okay.
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Senate Polling — Co/Efficient (R)
Kansas – Marshall +5
Nebraska – Ricketts +5
Iowa – Hinson +4
Alaska – Sullivan +2
Maine – Collins +2
Ohio – Husted +1
New Hampshire – Tied
Michigan – Tied
Minnesota – Flanagan +1The above polls are more positive than Mark Halperin’s analysis of the election this morning.
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co/efficient was A rated from their 2024 results. Hope they still are after this election.
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Talarico’s campaign is done. I’ve seen this movie before with polls and Texas Senate races, and I’m reasonably certain Talarico wouldn’t win anyway. But whatever happened is the nail on the coffin. You can’t simply disappear for 2 weeks with no plausible explanation, and then somehow explain all that away. It’s not possible, whatever happened to him.
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The explanation of the day is now is diabetes.
Absurd. As a diabetic, I know an infection can lead to complications but 13 days is nonsense.
I was in the hospital for a week to deal with a foot wound that lead to a nasty infection. I still attended virtual Hearings from my hospital bed. I had 2 leg surgeries within 4 months when I broke my leg and I still functioned.
If his blood sugar crashed to the point he had to go to an ER, he would be out in 12 hours.
If he did have the flu, it could lead to pneumonia but his would still work and he could make and receive calls. It might also help his campaign. “Sorry I can’t be with you tonight but Texas matters more than my …. I am calling from my hospital room to tell you …”
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Probably could help his campaign……..assuming he wasn’t issuing that statement from a mental hospital.
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My best friend had Type 1 Diabetes. Infections became full blown health crisis, ended up having his toes amputated, bypass surgery, and assorted other health problems all related to his diagnosis. It’s very serious business. My question is why not just come out with the explanation up front. Wait 13 days?
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On October 9, 2024, Trump vs Harris RCP numbers:
AZ: 48.6 / 47.6 (Trump +1) Final: Trump +5.5
NV: 47.9 / 48.4 (Harris +0.5) Final: Trump +3.1
WI: 48.0 / 48.4 (Harris +0.4) Final: Trump +0.8
MI: 48.5 / 48.0 (Trump +0.5) Final: Trump +1.4
PA: 48.3 / 48.1 (Trump +0.2) Final: Trump +1.7
NC: 49.1 / 48.5 (Trump +0.6) Final: Trump +3.3
GA: 48.7 / 47.9 (Trump +0.8) Final: Trump +2.2LikeLike
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And if the WashPost poll of Maine makes you nervous, just remember six years ago the last several polls of Collins vs. Gideon:
Pan Atlantic: Gideon 47 / Collins 40
Colby College: Gideon 47 / Collins 43
Emerson: Gideon 48 / Collins 42Collins won by +8.6
And this cycle we have several polls where Collins actually leads, including NY Times/Siena, same who had Gideon +5 six years ago at the same time.
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its fun I suppose for us to speculate about Talafreako, but Paxton needs to be careful so it doesn’t boomerang. Take advantage of his absence, yes, but be careful about it.
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If you make me eat one more piece of meat, I will lose my freeking mind.”
This is being given for the mental breakdown.
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Yes, the mental thing didn’t help against Fetterman.
But whatever the reason, flu, diabetes, breakdown, etc. for a 37 year old guy is not going to help his campaign.
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Talarico’s campaign is done.”
Not according to the betting markets, still 60-40 for the freako.
But it was 66-34 two days ago
https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner
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to be fair, Fetterman had a stroke, and was in recovery, so his speech was slurred and most voters took that positively that he still showed up to the debate.
but a 37 year old who checks into a mental institution…if that’s what it is, that’s much different
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DW- I just listened to a pollster from Trafalgar. He thinks the House is gone. He thinks Paxton is bad enough to possibly drag down Abbott. He expects Collins to survive. Kansas and Alaska are at real risk of being lost. He thinks Michigan will go red.
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polymarket is a joke. Its just people with too much money on their hands following the polls. It is reactionary, not predictive.
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Meanwhile Abbott is at 74%.
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Phil – I am sorry your friend went through that. I watch my toes very closely. Still have all 10.
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I too think we get Michigan.
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polymarket is a joke”
Not a joke, no more than the stock market is a joke. It is serious with serious money.
But yes, it is a snapshot of current sentiment that reflects current polling, although not entirely. As such it is reactive, not predictive.
It correctly showed Trump with an advantage despite favorable polling for Kamala leading into the 2024 race.
Can someone with money to spare deliberately lose money in order to influence a narrative. It is possible, but less likely with heavily bet races with a lot of volume. In races with very little volume, yes, you could easily tip the odds with a large bet.
I like betting sites because I can make money on them.
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I too think we get Michigan.”
There you go. 2-1. Opportunity knocks.
Personally, I don’t like 2-1. Give me 4-1 that Rogers will lose and you got a bet.
https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-senate-election-winner
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NC-01 is a seat the GOP had hoped to flip, but the Dem internals have overwhelmingly shown that it will hold D. But the Republican challenger just released an internal by the indefatigable co/efficient saying she is up one:
Buckhout (R) 43%
Davis (D-Inc) 42%I drove through this district some weeks back and there were far more Buckhout signs, and saw she had an office open on main street of a small town. Hard to say how this one plays out.
But if the GOP doesn’t get wiped out as badly as everyone expects, co/efficient will be what Trafalgar was in 2016.
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how many people betting on El-Sayed have already forgotten that he polled on average +10 over Stevens and held on to win +1.
There is a huge shy Rogers vote going on. I never gamble but this would be easy money if I did.
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this isn’t good:
Rasmussen Reports poll | 10/5-10/8 LV
US Senate Maine 2026
🟦Troy Jackson 49% (+3)
🟥Susan Collins 47% (+1) [incumbent](Change from early September)
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Hi Guys,
All is well here with me. Monitor all yours comments daily. Decided to resurface and contribute whatever I can.
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DW,
The Board gave me exclusive rights to schedule the G650, so I know that it’s available. You may use it if you like, I’ll be in front of the TV all weekend watching college football.
I really appreciate that you have picked up the ball and have taken the responsibility for posting and commenting on the polls. I’m fairly optimistic about the GOP doing very well in the Senate this year, we’ll probably lose NC and hold the rest of the GOP seats. Good chance to flip MI and might even surprise in MN.
Don’t know enough yet to make even a preliminary call on House.
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Thanks Marv, hope you are right on the money.
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Minnesota is for real folks. The corruption there is THAT bad.
Morning Consult puts out polls to the left of center, getting a C+ grade two years ago for their 3 point skew to the blue.
So they just polled Minnesota, and only released REGISTERED voter numbers, not likely, and they left 14% of the responders as undecided without pushing them.
Had I known these details prior to seeing the results, I would have said they would show Flanagan +9 or +10.
Instead its just
Flanagan 45
Tafoya 41LikeLike
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Funeral today for sister of a good and close friend. Catholic service. Not impressed, but I am sure it was comforting for Catholics.
Then out to lunch with friends, come home change clothes, help get laundry dry started and go do shopping chores. Home now.
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