The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +13211224

2026 Senate Forecast

SCMEAKKSIAMITXMNOHNH
Gap+2+2+2+1+1+0.5+0.5+0.8+2+5
Count46474849505152484746

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Strange Arizona Poll

DW

The race for Governor of Arizona has been a blowout according to the media and university polls with incumbent Democrat Hobbs ahead usually by double-digits. The only highly rated pollster here is Quantus:

Arizona State: Hobbs +13
Noble Predictive Insights: +13
Higher Ground: Hobbs +16
AARP: Hobbs +8
Quantus: Hobbs +6

So Hobbs has released an internal showing that she’s actually nursing only a 4 point lead

🟦 Hobbs 49%
🟥 Biggs 45%

GQR – D 9/30-10/5; LV

IOWA

🟥 Hinson: 45%
🟦 Turek: 43%

CNN/SSRS (F) – 9/29-10/5; 801 LV

OHIO

🟥 Husted: 43%
🟦 Brown: 49%

CNN/SSRS (F) – 9/29-10/5; 760 LV

56 responses to “Strange Arizona Poll”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/sport/mlb/article-16191947/yankees-rays-fan-interference-home-run.html

    If you sit in the front row, don’t interfere.

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    when they design stadiums, what’s so hard about putting in an 32 inch barrier between the front seats and the top of the fence?

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    HOPE!

    University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov

    Talarico 45
    Paxton 45

    Abbott up 48/44

    Like

  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    more on that AZ poll from one of the x pages:

    ARIZONA POLL (Hobbs internal)

    Governor

    🟦 Katie Hobbs (inc): 49%
    🟥 Andy Biggs: 45%
    🟨 Other: 3%

    ——

    Pollster: Undecideds break for Biggs 2:1, and Republicans are often undercounted in Arizona polls

    GQR | 9/30–10/4 | 600 LV | ±4%

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Freako has not campaigned since 9/27. He claims he has the flu.

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Would Trump have to go to Texas if Paxton didn’t suck?

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    No, Trump is in Texas because Paxton stinks.

    He has to be dragged across the finish line.

    I hope he makes it.

    Like

  9. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/10/08/us-news/zohran-mamdani-ate-at-nyc-palestinian-restaurant-on-oct-7-anniversary/

    Mamdani is certainly not shy about his Jew-hatred.

    Like

  10. DW Avatar
    DW

    battle between incompetent lunatic communists:

    LOS ANGELES POLL – Mayor

    🟪 Nithya Raman: 35%
    🟦 Karen Bass (inc): 33%
    ⬜️ Not sure: 19%

    (Was Raman +4 on 9/28) —— * FM3 Research

    Like

  11. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    That high undecided vote in the LA mayoral race is because nobody likes either candidate. It’s an impossible choice between 2 undesirables.

    Like

  12. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Freako has actually missed the last 12 days of the campaign.

    Like

  13. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Putin had a beach side view of this Russian shadow fleet tanker burning right off the coast of Sochi.

    Evidently, he was at his beach house at the time.

    I hope he enjoyed the fireworks.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-tanker-crew-rescued-black-sea-after-attack-set-ship-ablaze-2026-10-06/

    Like

  14. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Interesting. If we weren’t now a banana republic, Leticia would recuse herself or be thrown off the case.

    Gillio Lopes, one of the seven men accused in Jane Doe’s civil lawsuit, has filed an Article 78 challenge looking to REMOVE NY Attorney General Letitia James as special prosecutor in the criminal investigation. His attorneys argue James showed bias toward Jane Doe in a Sept. 28 social media post, three days before Gov. Hochul appointed her to lead the reopened criminal investigation. Lopes wants the appointment overturned and a different prosecutor assigned. A judge has not yet ruled. 

    This is what the AG posted 3 days before her appointment. I guess there would be no “presumption of innocence”.

    “What this young woman has been forced to endure is horrific and unacceptable. I’m holding her in my heart and in my prayers. To her, and to all survivors: you’re not alone. We stand with you.”

    Like

  15. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Hey DW, I have a post in moderation.

    Like

  16. DW Avatar
    DW

    strange, the queue is clear of comments in moderation

    Like

  17. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Did you check the Qu’chua filter?

    Like

  18. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    It cleared on its own somehow.

    Like

  19. DW Avatar
    DW

    Puck: Democratic insiders name the party’s worst 2026 candidates — even as Democrats look set to retake the House, and maybe the Senate.

    🔵 Troy Jackson
    🔵 Abdul El-Sayed
    🔵 William Lawrence
    🔵 Matt Dunlap

    The problem isn’t the map — it’s the candidates.

    Essentially a point I have been making for a while. If we can hold on in SC, KS and IA, then MI and ME get us to 50 before talking about our chances in AK, TX, OH, or MN.

    Like

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    if we had nominated Cornyn in Texas, then right now the Dems would have almost no path to the senate.

    Like

  21. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Jan – I hope all those grassroots fans of Paxton are out there doing the work necessary to win. You promised they would get him elected.

    Like

  22. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    They do seem to have quality candidate issues. Typically, Rs have this. However, maybe not this year to the extent.

    Like

  23. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    And maybe add freako. He must really “believe” the fake poles. He has been mailing it in the past 12 days.

    Like

  24. DW Avatar
    DW

    The greatest gaslighter in Florida is St. Pete’s Polls. They got a well-deserved F grade in 2024 for skewing to Harris by a whopping 8.1 points.

    They just came out with a poll saying Donalds is tied with Jolly and Moody up only 2 on Nixon.

    Like

  25. DW Avatar
    DW

    meanwhile, Florida’s expert eric daughtery says this:

    Florida Republicans are at NEAR-2024 LEVELS of mail-in voting share versus Democrats with 26 days to go KEEP THIS UP! It went from a D+1.5 shift from 2024 to only D+0.3 today In mail-in ballot return RATE, Republicans are currently AHEAD of their 2024 lead — R+0.4 now.

    Where’s the blue wave? If there’s a massive Dem surge, it’s not showing up in Florida data, that’s for sure! It’s still too early, but to put this in perspective, you’d need an absolutely monumental Independent/NPA voter shift for Dems to even have a chance. And if that were happening, we’d expect to see a corresponding Dem surge in the mail…it’s just not happening in Florida ☀️

    Like

  26. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    It’s not just that. Florida is redder than it was in 2024 (or 2022). We burn through our voters slower than the ds.

    On a separate note, the voting numbers in Oh are looking rough for the drats.

    Like

  27. DW Avatar
    DW

    and the Dem in the Jacksonville mayor race is refusing to endorse Nixon. If St. Pete Polls was right, she would be campaigning with Nixon and praising her.

    Like

  28. DW Avatar
    DW

    https://flvoicenews.com/florida-turnout-tracker/

    Like

  29. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    lol

    Like

  30. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    It must be something more than the flu to be off the trail for 12 days.

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    Sorry, Paxton shouldn’t be wasting his time making fun of an opponent with the flu. You do that if you are up 15 or 20. He should be out there explaining what a fruitcake Freako is and how he wants open borders so invaders can rape your daughters.

    Like

  32. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    According to the Guardian, Brazil’s vote was a “vote against the forest”.

    You can’t make this sh-t up.

    The world is going to end because Brazil might not elect old Bolshevik Lula. The Amazon will be finished, and Democracy will be finished.

    “More fire, more ash, more crime, more death. And a globally important ecosystem driven ever more rapidly towards a point of no return. That is the prospect for the Amazon rainforest for at least the next four years if Flávio Bolsonaro holds on to the lead he established this week in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election.

    This appears to be of far more concern to the outside world than to voters in Latin America’s biggest, richest and most biodiverse nation.

    The result is an unnerving jolt to climate and nature campaigners. Taken out of context, this appears to be a vote against the forest.

    Voters, of course, are allowed to change their minds. Either on 25 October or, constitutionally, in four years’ time. But for how much longer will that be possible? If Bolsonaro wins, it won’t just be Lula that is finished, it could also be the Amazon and democracy itself.”

    I guess voters choosing Bolsonaro in a free and fair election isn’t democracy.

    Like

  33. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Another post in moderation.

    Like

  34. DW Avatar
    DW

    cleared it

    Like

  35. DW Avatar
    DW

    if the Guardian is so concerned, then why don’t they ask the Russians why they drained the Aral Sea causing an ecological and environment disaster in central Asia?

    Like

  36. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Glad to hear Putin has a front row seat to a burning tanker. Hope he enjoys the view. He can room with Hitler, Chairman Mao and Stalin in hell.

    Liked by 1 person

  37. DW Avatar
    DW

    I guess RCP likes to have their average be way off. They included the gaslighting St. Pete Polls. They should be banned until they can prove they fixed their problems. But they see it that they are not the problem, just the voters.

    Like

  38. DW Avatar
    DW

    east carolina university has Cooper over Whatley 50-43. Prior poll a month ago was +8

    Like

  39. DW Avatar
    DW

    ECU Poll North Carolina Senate net margins (Cooper–Whatley)

    Overall: Cooper +7 (50–43)

    Forced choice: Cooper +7 (53–46)

    🔴 Men: Whatley +5
    🔵 Women: Cooper +17
    🔴 White: Whatley +14
    🔵 Black: Cooper +72
    🔵 Hispanic: Cooper +11
    🔴 Republicans: Whatley +84
    🔵 Democrats: Cooper +94
    🔵 Independents: Cooper +16
    🔵 18–29: Cooper +23
    🔵 30–44: Cooper +35
    🔴 45–64: Whatley +4
    🔴 65+: Whatley +6

    Sept. 30–Oct. 3, 810 likely voters

    So if Republicans can show up and support the Republican, and if the young voters have lower than expected turnout, this could still be a race.

    Like

  40. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The liberal intelligentsia (not) views the Amazon forest as a “world asset” when it actually belongs to the countries in the Amazon basin.

    The idea of the forest as an untouched nature preserve is romantic to the liberals, but it doesn’t work for the millions of people who actually live there. There has to be a balance between the responsible exploration of the resources and preservation of the forest and wildlife.

    Brazil found out the hard way that giving millions of acres of forest to native tribes as a means of preservation was a bad idea. Turns out the Indians are like everyone else, as soon as they were in legal possession of millions in valuable timber and minerals they sold concessions to lumber and mining companies, pocketed the money, and gave up subsistence living for new pickups, houses with air conditioning, even airplanes.

    Like

  41. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Sorry, Paxton shouldn’t be wasting his time making fun of an opponent with the flu”

    I disagree.

    He is not making fun of an opponent with the flu.

    He is making fun of a candidate who disappeared.

    I think the “milk ads” are a great idea.

    Like

  42. DW Avatar
    DW

    fair enough jason, but it would be great if Paxton could give voters a reason to vote FOR him, not just against the freak.

    Like

  43. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    maybe candence Owen’s can find telefreako

    Like

  44. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    it’s been 12 days. He hasn’t had the flu for those days. The flu was just announced.

    Like

  45. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Right, the flu would not likely keep someone his age AWOL for 12 days.

    Like

  46. DW Avatar
    DW

    husted up 1 according to A rated pollster co efficient

    Like

  47. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @OpenSourceZone

    2026 Ohio Senate Poll

    🔴 Jon Husted (inc): 44%

    🔵 Sherrod Brown: 43%

    Co/efficient | 10/8

    Like

  48. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @IAPolls2022

    ·

    OHIO POLL By Co/efficient (R) SENATE 🟥 Jon Husted (inc): 44% 🟦 Sherrod Brown: 43% 🟨 Other: 4% —— GOVERNOR 🟥 Vivek Ramaswamy: 45% 🟦 Amy Acton: 43% 🟨 Other: 3% —— Generic Senate ballot 🟥 GOP: 45% 🟦 Dem: 45% 10/5–6 | 925 LV | R48/D37 https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/oh/

    Like

  49. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    comment in moderation. About the full Ohio coefficient poles.

    Like

  50. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    A great catch like that, surprised he could not find a wife.

    Terrorist pilot postings online…

    “He turned to a Muslim dating website in the hope of finding a woman between 18 and 23, according to the FT, and said he was seeking a “religious Saudi from a tribal background” who was willing to wear a face cover, not seek work outside the home, and to live abroad.

    His failed search led him to conclude, according to the X posts viewed by FT, that most women “care primarily about money” and are “skilled at pretense.”

    The posts seen by the British newspaper included more aggressive language, including the assertion that a woman’s “only obligation is to lift her legs”

    Like

  51. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Not added but based on Evs- yute vote is down

    @Rasmussen_Poll

    ·

    Update:

    @InsiderPolling

    “But there is another definite wave we are seeing. Voters 65 and over are the most enthusiastic to vote of all demographics. And they have moved back to the GOP in big numbers. Races are close in red states but also close in some blue states.”

    Like

  52. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The older vote prolly like the no tax on. Social security and cheaper drug costs.

    Like

  53. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Janzam will soon be here to say it’s worth it “for the cause”!

    “Russian soldiers are blowing themselves up to avoid being taken prisoner.

    More than 250 Russian servicemen, including dozens of officers, were captured during Operation Vivaldi, an offensive in northern Donetsk.

    Many surrendered as entire units after Ukrainian drones cut off their food, water and ammunition.

    A commander in Ukraine‘s 3rd Army Corps, the unit central to the operation, told The Telegraph that Russian soldiers had been warned they would be tortured and killed if captured

    “They were reluctant to surrender because they were afraid, and they were blowing themselves up, trying to take our soldiers with them,” Olexander Borodin said.

    “The Russian army has this propaganda preaching that if they go into Ukrainian captivity, they will be tortured; they will be killed.”

    The offensive has resulted in the killing of 3,000 Russian soldiers in a matter of months, and the recovery of 48 square miles of occupied territory, according to the 3rd Army Corps.

    Fought in three stages so far, it has relied on drones and robots advancing before infantry, including kamikaze ground vehicles air-dropped behind Russian lines.

    The Russians who did surrender have revealed dire conditions during their time in Donetsk, including being forced to drink their own urine and eat tree bark and nettles.

    They told the 3rd Army Corps that injured soldiers were not evacuated from their positions and that their only chance of survival was to crawl to an evacuation point on their own.More to explore

    One of the Russian officers told the corps that his soldiers were dying en masse from exhaustion and starvation.

    “Some lost 30 or 40 kilos from their normal weight, and many of them were asking just for one thing, like a sip of water,” said Mr Borodin.

    “They were not even thinking about their further situation. All they wanted was just a sip of water.”

    He said about half of the prisoners needed medical treatment, many of them for wounds they had been trying to treat themselves while holding their positions.

    Russian commanders knew about the conditions but did little to improve them, Mr Borodin claimed, and did not try to evacuate the wounded because it would put pressure on the army’s medical service.

    Many of the prisoners also described corruption within their own units.

    Some told Mr Borodin their commanders had ordered them to hand over part of their salaries to buy equipment, which never arrived.

    “Some of them feel betrayed by their command,” he said.

    That sense of betrayal has left many reluctant to go home. Although Ukraine hopes to trade them for its own soldiers, Mr Borodin said a large number of the prisoners did not want to be exchanged.

    Russian soldiers who have been captured are seen by their own army as lesser fighters, he said, and the men feared being sent straight back to the front line in even worse conditions than before.”

    Like

  54. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    They just slammed the rino that lost his contest by 30%.

    @burgessev

    New – Republicans say the Paxton leaks aren’t fatal to his campaign, but they are annoying and not helpful

    @LawAmericanX

    : “Paxton has always relied on his base and a strong statewide ticket to carry him across the finish line. He’s never played anywhere near this level and doesn’t understand the magnitude of effort being expended on his behalf to try to win this race” Sen. Cornyn: “Got to be more careful when you run with the big dogs” NRSC spox

    @joannamrod

    says Republicans need to “put your jersey on and fight with us or go sit in the stands enjoying tofu with the Talafreakos”

    Like

  55. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Yes him telling dc cabal to F off is annoying. lol.

    Like

  56. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @IAPolls2022

    Senate Polling — Co/Efficient (R) 🔴 Kansas – Marshall +5 🔴 Nebraska – Ricketts +5 🔴 Iowa – Hinson +4 🔴 Alaska – Sullivan +2 🔴 Maine – Collins +2 🔴 Ohio – Husted +1 🟡 New Hampshire – Tied 🟡 Michigan – Tied 🔵 Minnesota – Flanagan +1

    ·

    32K

    Like

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