The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +13211224

2026 Senate Forecast

SCMEAKKSIAMITXMNOHNH
Gap+2+2+2+1+1+0.5+0.5+0.8+2+5
Count46474849505152484746

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Close in Michigan

DW

According to Quantus (B)

MICHIGAN – Senate

🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 48%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 47%
🟨 Other: 2%

Quantus Insights 10/5-6; 652 LV

Curious poll in the NY Governor race as I would think Marist would have a bigger Hochul lead:

NEW YORK

GOVERNOR
🟦 Hockul: 53%
🟥 Blakeman: 42%

Marist (C-) 10/1-4; 1361 RV

4 responses to “Close in Michigan”

  1. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    “Doe says she took nine shots of vodka in her own sorority house before heading out for the evening. Meanwhile, according to Doe, every defendant took ketamine, and she did as well. In her statement to police, she said that one of her first two sex partners could not stay awake during sex, and she woke him several times to see if he needed care, and the other was dry-heaving immediately afterward. According to the New York Times’ summary of the men’s statements during the Title IX process, they agree that they were drunk and high on marijuana to the point of vomiting at the time of the encounter.“

    Not sure if you take 9 shots of vodka and have to wake your “attacker” to see if he is ok during sex qualifies as rape exactly.

    Also, if you can use being drunk and high as justification for not knowing what your were doing, does that apply to the “attackers” also.

    This case is smelling more and more like the Duke case by the minute.

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  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    MICHIGAN:

    co/efficient: tie
    Quantus: D+1
    AARP: D+1
    Fox News: D+1
    YouGov: D+1
    Trafalgar: D+2
    Insider Advantage: D+2
    Rasmussen: D+3

    That’s a pretty wide variety of pollsters and with El-Sayed underperforming by 9 in the primary against the polling, this race is playing right into Rogers’ hands.

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  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    Good update from Alaska.

    The Alaska Research Survey was off 5 points in favor of Harris in 2024 and earned a C grade.

    Their last poll of the Senate race had Peltola up 52/48.

    New poll shows Peltola up 51/49 on the final round. However, prior to that they had her up only 48/47 with the fake Sullivan getting 5 (very unlikely).

    Then they have Peltola increasing her lead after the fake Sullivan is eliminated. Not likely.

    Given other polling showing Sullivan ahead, this Alaska Research Survey poll is moving in our direction.

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  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

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