New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +13211224

2026 Senate Forecast

SCMEAKKSIAMITXMNOHNH
Gap+2+2+2+1+1+0.5+0.5+0.8+2+5
Count46474849505152484746

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Is California this Close?

CALIFORNIA – GOVERNOR

🟦 Becerra: 48%
🟥 Hilton: 38%

The Independent Center – 9/23-10/2; 2906 LV

CALIFORNIA – GOVERNOR

🟦 Becerra: 46%
🟥 Hilton: 40%

Hilton Internal | 10-1-2 | 1,020 LV

NEW MEXICO – GOVERNOR

🟦 Haaland: 47%
🟥 Hull: 41%

Survey USA | 9/25-30 | 567 LV

74 responses to “Is California this Close?”

  1. I think the CA vote will be more like 58% to 48%…

    ………..

    BTW,.

    DW,

    I think my Nov. election prediction from one of the last threads may by the first poster prediction for this cycle.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. But Hormuzzle is closed.

    Like

  3. But Hormuzzle is closed.

    Another early lie by Tina. Nobody posted that. If somebody did, Tina can produce it.

    Like

  4. This is the worst economy ever (freepasser)

    @DeItaone

    ·

    42m

    US SEP FINAL COMPOSITE PMI 58.4 (58.4 FLASH, 56.0 AUG) US SEP FINAL SERVICES PMI 58.8 (58.7 FLASH, 56.5 AUG)

    Like

  5. Hilton is doing the best he can. The issue is the monthly vote counting, the d- party id advantage, the illegals voting, and general lax voting standards

    Ca is losing population and jobs. Gas is over $6 (diesel $8). We lost two refineries under Nuissance. Taxes are high and car registration is high.

    Nuissance and co recently raised the gas tax. He would never do a holiday. Gas was going to be high here because of the 2 closed refineries.

    Like

  6. The drat candidate is a joke. He lost all the illegal kids brought in under demented. Sold to who knows what.

    Like

  7. This is the worst economy ever (freepasser)

    Good thing those freepassers don’t post at HHR.

    Like

  8. Tina would improve her posts if she said “freepassers at Red Racing Horses”

    Like

  9. The free passers love the socialist pm

    Like

  10. so everywhere in the world “conservative” candidates are defeating socialist/communist candidates, but here we are on the cusp of going full commie.

    Like

  11. I wonder if Tina even knows she is lying and making things up?

    Like

  12. I think the CA vote will be more like 58% to 48%…”

    Kommie Kory would be proud of that kind of math…

    Like

  13. I think the CA vote will be more like 58% to 48%…”

    Pathological liars are unable to discern when one lie ends and the next one begins.

    Like

  14. Breaking…

    Trump considering renaming Strait of Hormuz to now be

    DIRE STRAITS.

    (…cue up “Money for Nothing”….)

    Like

  15. Tina is not lying, only applying exaggeration and some hyperbole to her commentaries. I continue to find it hypercritical how some here turn blind eyes to some of the atrocities going on in a favored country abroad, and yet regularly complain about Tina’s ironical posts.

    Like

  16. That sounds like Jan but DW can confirm.

    Like

  17. Tina is not lying, only applying exaggeration and some hyperbole to her commentaries.

    Saying that people at HHR support open borders and illegal immigration when nobody at HHR supports that and actually oppose it is not exaggeration or hyperbole.

    Like

  18. Like

  19. Jan, an imposter showed up over the weekend posting in your name. I removed the faux posts.

    Like

  20. J-Hole, I was just being silly with the %s.

    >………..

    So far today, I worked on the clothes dryer to try and end an unusual noise that recently appeared. Move it, clean lint filter slot with special long brushes, clean filter exhaust pipe, clean behind/beside/under dryer, take some screws off…success.

    Do not recommend doing this job…I am now sore from wrestling the dryer and contortioning myself in tight spaces, and tired.

    Smoke break….

    Later I will clean out and replace concrete driveway joints (90+ feet) with new backer rod and new caulk. This kind of job is a first for me.

    Like

  21. J-hole,

    The 58% to 48%. could happen since it’s Callyphornyia…

    Like

  22. sure, that is the first round when they have 106% of possible ballots collected, then they decide which ones to kick out to get the total back down to 100%.

    Like

  23. I enjoy using a nail gun, but this southpaw is not real good at using these right-handed caulking guns. It always gets messy…

    Like

  24. Brazil right runoff is looking good.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Morning Consult same generic ballot gap as last week at Dem+7

    they have a very poor track record. In 2022 they predicted Dem +5 and it turned out to be GOP +2.8.

    In 2020 they said Dem+7 and on election day it was Dem+3.1

    Like

  26. https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/chiefs-tyquan-thornton-didnt-realize-foot-pointing-wrong-direction-game-changing-catch

    It is never good when your foot faces in the wrong direction.

    When I broke my leg, I asked my wife to take a photo of it. She refused and just said I don’t want to see it.

    Like

  27. In 2022, at a graduation ceremony for incarcerated students, James Talarico said: “If we took just half of what we spent on wars, prisons, and policing, and spent it on education, healthcare, and jobs, we could make prisons obsolete.”

    Like

  28. Obama to campaign with radical terrorist Abdul El-Sayed.

    Like

  29. we could make prisons obsolete

    Just for the sake of argument, let’s say more money would cut down on crimes like theft. I’m not sure how more money on education, healthcare, and jobs would stop murders or rapes.

    Like

  30. https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16183279/France-riots-student-protests-school-fire.html

    Today’s life lesson. Do not attempt to throw back stun grenades. You will lose the ability to clap.

    Like

  31. Harry - Radiant Cheesecake Avatar
    Harry – Radiant Cheesecake

    I would say a good start for education is to require children to read and do arithmetic prior to moving up to a higher grade.

    Another way to improve education overall would be to kick out children who do not want to be there. Those children provide distractions to the children who want to learn.

    I bet those are free (or nearly so) ways to improve the schools.

    In Texas, the state pays school districts per pupil (even bad ones). Perhaps, that should change.

    Like

  32. Remember when the free passers thrashed her? Said she was incompetent. It seems like she was right and the flat slob Pryor (higher court) was wrong


    @Rickisback_ON_X

    ·

    I am old enough to remember that Judge Cannon ordered a Special Master in the FL Documents case and the appeals Court (11th Circuit) reversed her. She believed that the DOJ and Jack Smith was not being honest with the court about the documents and other issues in their filings. Turns out she was right after all.

    Like

  33. Thank you DW.

    Like

  34. Generic Ballot Poll by Rasmussen

    🟦 Democrats: 47% (-1)
    🟥 Republicans: 44% (+1)
    🟨 Other: 4%

    Was Dems +8 in early September

    ——

    🔴 White: GOP 48-44
    🔴 Hispanic: GOP 50-42
    🔵 Black: Dem 70-16

    9/24-30 | 1,794 LV rasmussenreports.com/public_content…

    Like

  35. the combined generic ballot average among polls that ended after 9/27 is currently Dem +5.6

    Like

  36. Good numbers suggests tightening and or pole correction

    Like

  37. Red movement in Rasmussen and ActiVote generic ballot…hopefully confirming what the guy at Insider Advantage said last week about seeing movement in the direction of saving the country from the commies.

    Like

  38. It seems like the convention worked and Trump is nationalizing the election. Plus Rs have a significant money advantage for the first time in4 cycles.

    Like

  39. oh no. I guess Trump alienating Hispanic voters was wrong.

    Like

  40. @IAPolls2022

    Generic Ballot — Hispanic voters 🟥 Republicans 50% (+13) 🟦 Democrats 42% (-8) (+/- shuft vs 9/17)

    @Rasmussen_Poll

    | 9/24-30 | 1,794 LV

    Like

  41. AZ-1 is on everyone’s list of the “easy” flips R to D on election night. Its a Trump +3.1 district in a year Trump won AZ by a lot for a Republican.

    New poll of AZ-1 suggests its not quite given up for dead:

    AZ-01 POLL

    🟦 Amish Shah: 44%
    🟥 Jay Feely: 42%
    ⬜ Unsure: 14%

    FirstStrategic | 10/1 | n=400 | ±5.4 Source: @Garrett_Archer

    Of course I have never heard of this pollster

    Like

  42. New Hampshire Poll – Senate

    🟦 Chris Pappas: 49%
    🟥 John Sununu: 44%
    🟨 Other: 3%

    (Was Pappas +11 in Sept)

    @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/2 | 979 LV rcher

    Like

  43. I have never heard of Amish Rabbi, an Amish Pope, on an Amish Shah.

    Liked by 1 person

  44. DW,

    Was Jay Feely’s nickname in high school ‘Touchy’?

    Liked by 2 people

  45. I 100% guauanfrickingtee will predict the next U.S. Senator from NH will only have 3 different letters (some repeating more than once) in their last name.

    Liked by 2 people

  46. DW,

    In making my 2026 House of Representatives predictions I pretty much moved any seat the R won by 5% or less over to the D side.

    Of course there will end up being some exceptions…

    Like

  47. Islam-o-communist Hasan Piker on results in Brazil: “We have no way to combat it. These guys are spreading MAGA all over the world.”

    Like

  48. Becera has pulled out of tomorrows 2nd debate since his performance was awful.

    Like

  49. three polls now…this one IPSOS/reuters which is still doing RV polling, went from D+8 to D+7

    Like

  50. “Becera has pulled out of tomorrows 2nd debate since his performance was awful.”

    Can do that, admit he failed in the debate, announce that he is a coward for not debating again, and still easily win the election.

    Like

  51. MICHIGAN POLL – Senate

    🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 45.6%
    🟥 Mike Rogers: 41.4%
    🟨 Other: 7%

    ——

    By Age

    🔵 18-29: El-Sayed +28
    🔵 30-44: El-Sayed +28
    🔴 45-64: Rogers +3

    Mitchell Research | 10/1 | 600 LV Sample: D36/R34/I30 | ±3.8%

    Only a 1 day sample? And only 600? Both Fox News and Trafalgar sampled over 1000 and each found a 1 or 2 point race. Mitchell had a 3 point skew to Harris in 2024 and a C+ grade.

    Like

  52. I still say that this race has “Shy Rogers” voters written all over it. Hard to tell a pollster that you are voting against Islamic Terrorist.

    Would be awesome if someone did a poll only asking how their neighbor is voting.

    Like

  53. Hard to tell a pollster that you are voting against Islamic Terrorist.

    Why? If they asked me I would say I was voting against all terrorists and they can publish my name in the poll.

    Like

  54. Same here, BL, but most Americans are not in a DGAF mode like the A-Holes (even honorary member such as myself), and they try to stay low vice becoming the men in the arena.

    Speaking of which, an admin question; do I owe any back dues as an honorary member? I recall submissions and dues being paid to some intern (no official word on whether she was a hottie, although I believe Marv said so). I do not wish to run afoul of the charter, please advise.

    And Marv, if you’re out there, I’d like the G-V this weekend, I want to fly the Mrs. to Pensacola while I’m working on the Gulf coast.

    Liked by 1 person

  55. Sc remands tps case back to 9th circus court. They are done with TPS. They have to leave,

    Like

  56. Did too much today.

    Body is overflowing with various pains. I am moving slow–like Goofball. Speaking of Goofball, I am supposed to be his driver tomorrow..

    I am now in my zero gravity deck chair after dinner smoke and coffee break.

    Zero gravity chair is wonderful for back pain.

    Like

  57. DW,

    Thanks for finding the polls today and analyzing.

    Liked by 1 person

  58. GF – You were only an Honorary A-hole? You sure seemed like a full A-hole to me. I will check on the back dues. Do not trust anything Jason says about it.

    Like

  59. ”Do not trust anything Jason says about it.”

    To be fair, I will happily contribute to the Lupita and Quechua funds if need be…

    Like

  60. Still at LAX waiting for a flight to New Orleans. I know Mamacita was a brown immigrant (but she doesn’t speak Quechua, just Spanish!), have to wonder if I’m also a second class citizen despite my twenty years in uniform as well as my mother’d fourteen….

    Like

  61. Finally made it to my hotel room in the Quarter. Arrived in New Orleans three hours late at 0230, but baggage didn’t come out for half an hour. By the time I got to the rental car facility, it was all closed up until 0600, so I had to get a Lyft and will have to go back later today for my car. If only Hertz had sent me a text or email, I wouldn’t have wasted an hour of my time.🤬

    Like

  62. Sorry that Marv did not send the jet. DW sends him on a lot of missions.

    Like

  63. I thought he was already dead.

    RIP, Jim Bakker.

    Like

  64. GF is a full blown A-hole.

    Like

  65. J-hole,

    The 58% to 48%. could happen since it’s Callyphornyia”

    True.

    Like

  66. Remember when the free passers thrashed her? “

    No.

    Was that the same day the free passers said Hormuz was closed?

    Like

  67. see Hormuzzle is closed (freepasser)

    DeItaone

    *IRAN SAYS HORMUZ WILL NOT BE OPENED BY THREATS OR PRESSURE

    ·

    35.3K Views

    Like

  68. So now Tina cites Iran to try to prove something that was never said at HHR? Sad.

    Like

  69. Today’s life lesson. Do not attempt to throw back stun grenades. You will lose the ability to clap.”

    Shhhhhh…..

    Like

  70. The Iranians and the free passers agree the strait is closed.

    At least the Iranians are real.

    Like

  71. J-hole

    October 5, 2026 at 11:16 am

    I think the CA vote will be more like 58% to 48%…”

    Pathological liars are unable to discern when one lie ends and the next one begins.”

    Sorry, Walt, that was the wrong cut and paste

    That response was supposed to be to Bitter’s comment about Tina’s lies.

    Like

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