The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +7214221

2026 Senate Forecast

KSIAMEAKMIMNTXOHNHNCGA
Gap+3.9+2.5+2+2+0.5+0.8+1+1.5+4+4.5+5
Count4748495051494847464544

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Close in Ohio

DW

According to Marist, that is if you understand where Marist is coming from.

OHIO

GOVERNOR
🟦 Acton: 50%
🟥 Ramaswamy: 44%
—
SENATE
🟥 Husted (i): 43%
🟦 Brown: 51%

Marist – 9/24-27; 1298 RV

But recall two years ago that Marist was horrible. In the race for POTUS, off 9 in Florida. Off 5 in Michigan, off 4 in PA and off 5 in Ohio. And Marist was off SIX in Brown’s favor in the 2024 election for U.S. Senate in Ohio, claiming Moreno 48 / Brown 50 when the final result was Moreno 50 / Brown 46.

And if you look at the 2024 polling, Moreno didn’t really grab a consistent lead in the polling until October.

MONTANA – Senate

🟥 Kurt Alme: 45%
⬜️ Seth Bodnar: 26%
🟦 Alani Bankhead: 19%

American Pulse Research | 9/19-24

And then Change Research-D is polling Florida like its the year 2000:

FLORIDA

GOVERNOR
🟦 David Jolly: 48%
🟥 Byron Donalds: 46%
—
SENATE
🟥 Ashley Moody (i): 48%
🟦 Angie Nixon: 47%

Change Research-D for @FreedomProjUSA

Finally a strange poll for the Dems to release, given the conventional wisdom is that they hold OH-9:

🟦 Kaptur 48%
🟥 Merrin 48%

DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department 9/22-23, 481 LV

Today’s Talking Point: Young voters yearning for communism have been duped into thinking capitalism has failed them, when in reality it’s the socialism that we already have that has failed them.

36 responses to “Close in Ohio”

  1. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Close in Ohio?

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    Yes, Phil, Ohio is close.

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    “But Hormuzzle is closed.

    Can Tina give us the link to Bizarro HHR where the Freepassers post?”

    I can, its RRHelections.com

    Like

  4. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    That doesn’t look close to me.

    Like

  5. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Even if Marist is off by 5 Dems still win so I think that is a horrible poll for Rs.

    Like

  6. DW Avatar
    DW

    Recent polling in Ohio’s US Senate race:

    Bowling Green: Brown+3
    Insider Advantage: Brown +5
    Trafalgar: Brown +3
    Quantus: Brown +1
    Rasmussen: Brown +3
    Marist: Brown +8

    TWO years ago in the same timespan of late August/September:

    Morning Consult: Brown +2
    Siena: Brown +4
    Bowling Green: Brown +4
    Marist: Brown +2
    Emerson: Brown +2
    Southern Cal Strategies: Brown +5
    Rasmussen: Brown +5

    But in the end Moreno won 50/46.

    So yes, despite Marist’s endless gaslighting, the OH senate race is close.

    Like

  7. DW Avatar
    DW

    “That doesn’t look close to me.”

    Put your glasses on and look at Marist’s history. I predicted yesterday that this poll would be Brown +10. Not quite that bad at +8. But Quantus has a B grade from 2024 with only a slight skew to the Dems. They have it a 1 point race.

    Do you have any evidence that after years of gaslighting, Marist has now cleaned up its act and is putting out good polls?

    Like

  8. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    For Bitter…

    The Shenandoah County School Board wants to leave the names of Confederate generals on two school buildings as the division appeals a federal judge’s decision finding that members violated students’ rights by reinstating the names.

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    https://nypost.com/2026/09/28/science/archaeologists-risked-their-lives-to-save-thousands-of-treasures-from-islamic-state/

    That’s the strategy of radical islam. Gain control of the world, and then destroy every last bit of historical evidence of every culture so that the children can be lied to and told that world history is nothing but radical islam.

    Like

  10. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Hauling Goofball around.

    bank

    drug store

    walgreens

    family dollar

    Mcdonalds

    t mobile

    Like

  11. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Walt – I will state my position again. I do not think that the traitorous Confederates should ever have been honored with statues or anything being named for them (forts, schools, roads, towns, etc). However, I also oppose taking down statues or renaming things. I am open to placing a sign that says “Traitor defending slavery” on the statues.

    There are no public statues of Rommel, Hitler, Mussolini, Yamamoto, or Tojo in America.

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    “There are no public statues of Rommel, Hitler, Mussolini, Yamamoto, or Tojo in America.”

    Wait until the Islam-o-communists take over our country. There will be statues of Muhammed, Stalin, Lenin, and Pol-Pot everywhere.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. DW Avatar
    DW

    But again, if Marist is right and the Senate race is a blowout +8 for Brown, then why does the DCCC release a poll of OH-9 showing Kaptur tied and fighting for her political life? She should be winning easily if Marist is right.

    Like

  14. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    NOW at a 2nd Family Dollar. First one was out of what Goofball wanted.

    Like

  15. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Goofball was in the hospital for 3 days last week…….

    Like

  16. DW Avatar
    DW

    Walt, the conversation between Homer and Cash will continue tomorrow.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    DW – Why complain? The Confederate traitors killed more Americans than those on your list.

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    I am a northerner Bitter. I smile every time I visit Fr. Monroe in Hampton, VA, as this is the only territory in Virginia (after its split with WV) that was never part of the confederacy. Its a great tour. You can visit the cell where they kept Jefferson Davis. And each morning when he woke up, the first thing he saw was a HUGE American flag on the end wall of his cell.

    Like

  19. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I heart Marist and change.

    -freepasser

    Like

  20. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    OK.

    There is no way for a person who is voluntarily joined in marrage to leave the marriage if it turns out to be a bad relationship.

    There is no way for a congregation to leave the United Methodist Church once they join now, and also keep their property.

    There is no way for a state to leave the union once they join.

    The Civil War was 100% about slave states vs. Non slave states and the only issue was slavery…despite the fact that several states where slavery was legal joinded to North and wV was added as a state, allowing slavery to exist there, …

    Got it.

    Like

  21. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    So there is not ONE poll showing Husted ahead of Brown.

    Don’t get me wrong, Husted is a great candidate and I hope he wins. Trump won OH by 500k votes and has been trending red, no way Husted is out of it.

    I just disagree with a thread headline calling the race close that features a poll showing him down by 8.

    Like

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    I am not, and did not say that Husted is going to win. He may or may not. I said the race is close, because it is. He is not down by 8. Marist has a long and well-documented history of gaslighting these races. Two years ago Moreno didn’t start getting any sort of consistent polling leads until October.

    Like

  23. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The Civil War was 100% about slave states vs. Non slave states”

    Walt could have stopped there.

    The revisionist theory that the Civil War was not about slavery is complete BS to me.

    “despite the fact that several states where slavery was legal joined to North and wV was added as a state, allowing slavery to exist there”

    That does not make the Civil War not about slavery. There were pro-slavery people in the North and there were anti-slavery people in the South.

    The truth:

    “The claim that the Civil War was not about slavery is a post-war revisionist narrative known as the “Lost Cause,” directly contradicted by Confederate Vice President Alexander Stephens in his famous Cornerstone Speech of March 1861.

    The Revisionist Claim vs. Historical Reality

    • The “Lost Cause” Myth: Developed after the Confederacy’s defeat, this narrative claims the war was fought over abstract “states’ rights” or economic differences rather than slavery.
    • The Direct Contradiction: In his March 21, 1861, Cornerstone Speech delivered in Savannah, Georgia, Confederate Vice President Alexander Stephens explicitly stated that the “cornerstone” of the new Confederate government rested “upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and normal condition”.
    • Primary Evidence: Secession ordinances and the Confederate Constitution itself explicitly protected and prioritized the institution of chattel slavery above all else, disproving the idea that slavery was secondary or incidental to the conflict.”

    Like

  24. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Apples and oranges, Walt. There are laws regarding marriage. Churches set their own rules. There was no legal means for a state to leave the Union. There still is not. The fact that some slave owning states remained loyal to the Union proves the Confederates were whiny bitches.

    Like

  25. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    We have a long tradition at HHR that any polls negative to Rs are wrong.

    So I am glad DW is continuing that tradition by claiming a poll showing a R candidate down by 8 is “close”.

    As a traditionalist myself, I will approve this message.

    Like

  26. DW Avatar
    DW

    I posted the poll jason. And I provided legitimate context to it. I am waiting for you to post evidence that Marist has straightened out their act. Its not just a bad poll here or there. They gaslight most every race they poll. Why not see this for what it is?

    Why did the DCCC release an OH-9 poll showing incumbent Kaptur tied with the Republican? This race is supposed to be a hold in a bad cycle for the GOP. There is no way Marist can be true and Kaptur tied at the same time.

    Quantus was actually a great pollster in 2024, and they have the race currently Brown +1.

    I am not going to come here and try to explain away every poll I don’t like. But I am also not going to pretend that Marist has no history of gaslighting either.

    Like

  27. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Also, the argument that the Civil War was about “economic issues” rather than slavery is completely misleading.

    Obviously, the South Southern slave owners wanted to keep slaves for economic reasons.

    Like

  28. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    That’s fine DW, you have the power of the pen and you can put up any poll and headline you want.

    I completely disagree on pretending a -8 poll is “close”,

    Both can be true.

    Like

  29. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  30. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The WSJ is months behind.

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    I am not pretending, I am calling out Marist for putting out garbage because that is their long established history. If this was an A rated or even B rated pollster saying Brown +8, I would agree its a disaster. But I learned long ago to not listen to people with a long history of lying. So its completely legitimate to point out that history.

    If there was a polling firm that was always +5 to +8 tilt to the GOP, and they said that Husted was up 4, I would discount it with the same cautions.

    Like

  32. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Cherry picking polls is a long standing HHR tradition.

    Polaris would be proud we have not abandoned it.

    Like

  33. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    I am not pretending,”

    I think pretending a -8 poll is “close” is pretending.

    Feel free to disagree.

    Like

  34. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    DW can talk himself blue in the face on how bad a pollster Marist is. I will probably agree 100%.

    But posting a poll where the R candidate is -8 and calling it “close”?

    Nah. As we use to say in TX, that dog won’t hunt.

    Like

  35. DW Avatar
    DW

    Again, I am not cherry picking. If I was cherry picking polls, I wouldn’t have posted that one at all. I have posted it and provided a context that includes…

    a. This pollster has a long history of gaslighting for dems.

    b. Other recent polls of this race are nowhere Brown +8, and these other pollsters have a much better grade for accuracy.

    c. Polls of house races in Ohio are not compatible with such a large Brown lead, particularly the poll just released by the Dem congressional committee showing Kaptur only tied.

    d. I have also shown how the polling at the same time two years ago had this same candidate, Brown, leading by about as much in the polls only to lose to Moreno by 4 in the end.

    So I didn’t cherry pick. I posted the poll. Marist claims its Brown +8. That is their claim. I then posted why I believe this a lie, a false claim based on substantial evidence including their past history of lying to the electorate hoping to gain a self-fulfilling prophecy by discouraging their enemies (us) from getting out to vote.

    Like

  36. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    This cannot be happening. Iran is Winning.

    Like

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