The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to Marist, that is if you understand where Marist is coming from.

OHIO

GOVERNOR
🟦 Acton: 50%
🟥 Ramaswamy: 44%
—
SENATE
🟥 Husted (i): 43%
🟦 Brown: 51%

Marist – 9/24-27; 1298 RV

But recall two years ago that Marist was horrible. In the race for POTUS, off 9 in Florida. Off 5 in Michigan, off 4 in PA and off 5 in Ohio. And Marist was off SIX in Brown’s favor in the 2024 election for U.S. Senate in Ohio, claiming Moreno 48 / Brown 50 when the final result was Moreno 50 / Brown 46.

And if you look at the 2024 polling, Moreno didn’t really grab a consistent lead in the polling until October.

MONTANA – Senate

🟥 Kurt Alme: 45%
⬜️ Seth Bodnar: 26%
🟦 Alani Bankhead: 19%

American Pulse Research | 9/19-24

And then Change Research-D is polling Florida like its the year 2000:

FLORIDA

GOVERNOR
🟦 David Jolly: 48%
🟥 Byron Donalds: 46%
—
SENATE
🟥 Ashley Moody (i): 48%
🟦 Angie Nixon: 47%

Change Research-D for @FreedomProjUSA

Finally a strange poll for the Dems to release, given the conventional wisdom is that they hold OH-9:

🟦 Kaptur 48%
🟥 Merrin 48%

DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department 9/22-23, 481 LV

Today’s Talking Point: Young voters yearning for communism have been duped into thinking capitalism has failed them, when in reality it’s the socialism that we already have that has failed them.