New Book:

2026 House Forecast

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Democrat +7214221

2026 Senate Forecast

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***There are no “freepassers” here***

Weekend Thread

Trafalgar with a Republican lead in Alaska:

Sullivan 47
Peltola 46
J. Sullivan 3
Heikes 1

93 responses to “Weekend Thread”

  1. I guess i was posting on the dead thread.

    Walt posted:

    “Another person showed a many decade chart of crude oil prices and deisel fuel prices. Today’s numbers showed a HUGE gap, biggest gap ever between the two numbers.”

    Like

  2. My responses:

    Assuming reasonable profit margin of 20% for refiner and gas station”

    Zzzzz….

    Who decides what “reasonable margin” is? “Someone else” on Facebook”?”

    The “oil companies are gouging consumers” has been a popular meme among people who don’t understand the laws of supply and demand since oil was discovered in Titusville, PA in 1859.

    Today’s numbers showed a HUGE gap, biggest gap ever between the two numbers.”

    More zzzzzzzz…

    The gap is called the “crack spread” or refining margin. The cost of crude oil is only one factor. There is a severe global shortage of diesel refining capacity coupled with a shortage of the heavy crude that diesel is made of and is what the ME produces, increasing the conversion cost. Finally the demand for diesel is more inelastic than gasoline, because the industries that use it (trucking, shipping, agriculture, etc.) cannot substitute or slow down operations.

    That post from “someone on Facebook” is proof you cannot believe things you see on the Internet.

    Like

  3. Tina posted:

    BREAKING: The average sales price for a new single-family home fell -$47,700 MoM in August, or -9.1%, to $478,700, the largest monthly drop on record. This is the lowest level since August 2024 and the 2nd-lowest level since September 2021.”

    My response:

    The drop in home prices is not particularly good news because it is probably due to higher mortgage rates.

    “Lower prices to clear inventory” is not a great thing for businesses.

    Like

  4. Boston Globe not far left enough for Western MA Communists and called “MAGA” and an “ally for corporate lobbies” for covering lesbian bar story.

    Some of the comments are funny.

    “Could you PLEASE use a more accessible FONT? This is SO hurtful to SO many!”

    https://twitchy.com/gordon-k/2026/09/25/crazy-commies-continue-clown-car-cavalcade-in-last-ditch-bar-debacle-n2432686

    Like

  5. That AK poll might be better than it seems.

    The other Sullivan and Heikes are running as Rs.

    But I doubt Heikes will get 1%, he doesn’t even have a website and if you google him he has provided no info to any election site or voter guide.

    BIOGRAPHY

    EDUCATION

    Candidate did not provide

    WORK & MILITARY

    Candidate did not provide

    AFFILIATIONS

    Candidate did not provide

    POLITICAL OFFICES HELD

    Candidate did not provide

    POLITICAL OFFICES SOUGHT

    Candidate did not provide

    Like

  6. price gouging by gas stations might in theory happen in very remote stations out in the middle of nowhere when there is no competition. But it doesn’t happen in built up areas because of the competition. If one chain tried to price gouge, the others would say, thank you, and undercut them and win on volume, and the fact that their coffee, donuts, and convenience store items are sold instead of the competition’s.

    Like

  7. Feeling better and better about our prospects to hold the senate. Might even be hope for Ohio. But AK and ME moving in our direction it seems. El-Sayed is barely ahead in polls, but remember he was +10 in the primary polling and won +1.

    Like

  8. Even the new Big Data poll of Michigan suggests El-Sayed is in trouble. Baris is ticked off and angry at Trump.

    Remember the last poll of Baris to grade him on was when he said the KY race was tied and Massie lost by ten. Baris now has El-Sayed up 47-42 over Rogers, but where are the other 11%? My guess is Baris got El-Sayed’s high water mark number and missed Rogers numbers badly.

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  9. I would like to think some of the people saying they will vote for El-Sayed are not really registered voters.

    And although most of the Stevens voters will unite for the cause, I have to imagine there are some (like Cornyn voters in TX) that will leave the senate race blank.

    Hope springs eternal.

    Like

  10. People don’t understand oil is a commodity. It doesn’t matter what it costs to produce, the price is the price.

    If I find a 20 oz gold nugget while planting tomatoes in my back yard I can still sell it for $4200 an oz even though it cost me nothing to produce, same price as the company that paid $$$ to drill 2 miles down to find a 20 oz nugget.

    Like

  11. Someone on Facebook would say Jason is price gouging gold.

    Like

  12. This former Charlotte councilwoman Tiawana Brown is a piece of work. She is an ex-con who served jail time in the 1990’s for fraud.

    No lesson learned, she along with her 2 daughters scammed the COVID relief funds for over $130k. She used the proceeds for luxury items like Louis Vuitton bags and a $15k party for herself that included a rented throne and horse drawn carriage.

    She only got 10 months in jail and her daughters got 4 months house arrest.

    “US District Judge Kenneth Bell sentenced her to 10 months, at the high end of the recommended range. He called the birthday-party spending “frivolous beyond measure.” He was blunt about how she handled the charges while she was still in office. He told her she knew she was guilty and still told Charlotte the case was a political hit. 

    “You divided this city needlessly, selfishly,” Bell said. He added that she “took a bad thing and made it worse.” 

    Think she is is chastised? Think again.

    “That judge did some bullsh*t in court today,” Brown said in the video. “I don’t care what y’all say. You gotta be there to see it. We agreed to a plea agreement. Yes, the judge has the ability to make the call and do whatever you want to do but this judge had it out for me, specifically. Yes I said it.” 

    Like

  13. Headed to my 40th HS reunion. Walt’s reunions have 4 digits for the year.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Liked by 1 person

  15. Bitter,

    My 1964 his grad class began meeting for lunch once a month. This week another of our 45 senior class members died. Not sure how many of us are left. Maybe half? Have to get the year book out. I am one of the two who are in the best shape.

    Like

  16. Walt – How many of the Socrates class of 400 BC is still around?

    Like

  17. Former Mets First baseman Pete Alonso has 43 homers and 113 RBIs for the O’s. Wonder how many his Mets replacement has?

    Like

  18. Tapper at CNN says “Trump is so concerned about losing the midterms that outside advisers are urging him to declare martial law for the elections”

    No, the outside advisers are not named.

    But someone wrote this gem:

    “Big if true. Imagine if he shut down businesses and churches, made it illegal to go outside, enforced social distancing, and then declared emergency rules for the election”

    Like

  19. i wish Tapper was right that he was concerned

    Like

  20. Bitter,

    I THINK 19 of the 1964 HHS senior class has passed. They are all 79 or 80 years old. We were tough kids and grew up when kids were not pampered. We are survivors.

    When we were kids, there were no seatbelts, we did not wear helmets when we rode out bikes. We had much joy when we played with mercury from broken thermometers. Parents put mercurichrome on sores inside out mouth or painted our throats with it if we had a sore throat.

    We fell out of trees, got chased by bulls, bit by dogs, played mumblepeg (game where you threw a pen knife into the ground between the wide spread feet of your opponent and thr feet got closer until one person got stuck in the foot with a pen knife and was the winner). Sometimes got in fistfights.

    Growing up, we got busted and bloodied up playing sandlot, backyard football. Danced with the possibilities of getting lock jaw as we often played with rusty sharp metal things and cut ourselves. We melted the lead out of batteries to make fishing sinkers. We had BB gun battles. We taped .22 bullets onto the end of our BB guns to fire them off when the BB hit the bottom of the .22 shell. Later when we were 12 or 14, we took out 22 guns into the woods to shoot stuff. We swung on grapevines out over cliff ledges. None of us died during these growing up years.

    We had many hours of unsupervised play where no adults were within thousands of feet of us. We did stupid stuff as we were allowed to be kids, but we survived. And I think our generation grew up better because of it. We learned how to be independent. We developed our imagination. We got close to nature and learned a lot of outdoorsy things.

    We were not chained to a cell phone or a TV (heck, I was about 6 years old before ANYone in our town HAD a TV).

    ******

    Not sure about Socrates ‘ graduation class and how many are left…besides me.

    Like

  21. Post at 7:29 above paraphrased…

    “The Muslims have a problem with Jews, Christians, democracy, bacon, gays, Christmas, Hindus, Buddhist, people who leave the Muslim faith, womens’ rights, and people who draw pictures of Muhammad….but if you have a problem with Muslims, then you are an islamaphobe.”

    Like

  22. Like

  23. Great…we are down to trusting the instincts of some guy in OH social media. Years ago in a bad cycle we at least could get a professor at a university

    Like

  24. We knew that.

    “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal, is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all,” Chakrabarti admitted to reporters. “Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a ‘how do you change the entire economy’ thing.”

    Like

  25. Yep.

    @CynicalPublius

    Cynical Publius@CynicalPublius

    You are in the middle of an intensive, carefully orchestrated information warfare campaign designed to make you believe that the midterms are already lost and that there is no hope. This only works if you choose to let it work. Don’t let it work. Fight the power.”

    Like

  26. The MSM headlines are.

    Rs giving up on some key races.

    Rs running away from Trump.

    Rs behind on all key senate races.

    Chances of Ds taking the house 90%, Senate 70%.

    Trump unpopularity dragging down entire R tickets.

    Like

  27. US has uphill climb to win President’s Cup today.

    Trump might have to give the trophy to the Internationals.

    Like

  28. Yes Karl robot and the gop-e all want this.

    Like

  29. I rather look at some hard data (at least preliminarily) vs fake polling. I know some people here die by polling.

    Like

  30. I wish robot, hee haw, and the other sea island rinos would do the work and not just talk to The NY Times. This includes a failes incumbent Tx senator, who lost his race by 27%

    Like

  31. The drats have replied as to why their Ohio numbers are down so far:

    Like

  32. Freudian slip?

    “Because I’m a lifelong Republican,” the senator replied, prompting a quick correction from the Garrett.

    “I guarantee you, that’s going to break through. That’ll get clipped,” Fetterman joked. “Yeah, I’m a lifelong Democrat though.”

    Like

  33. Other Yahoo headlines are all about how “Iran stands firm”, “Iran will not surrender”, blah blah blah.

    Like

  34. And that’s the final answer? Numbers down because the Ds don’t trust mail in ballots anymore.

    Like

  35. All because trumps executive order that the sc upheld?

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  36. What else is he going to say?

    The election hinges on whether the dissatisfaction with Trump and the high cost of living “trumps” the rejection of the DSA and extreme left positions of the Democrats.

    Are a lot of polls agenda driven? Yes. They traditionally tend to underestimate the R vote.

    But are a lot of these races a lot closer than they should be either because these are red states or the opposition is composed of extremists? AK, TX, IA, ME, MI, OH? Even KS and NE?

    Yes.

    Like

  37. Zing

    @lxeagle17

    I think election analysis would be a lot more tolerable if more Democrats just went to therapy instead of scrolling X.

    ·

    2,170 Views

    Like

  38. If the daily wire is on our side they need to get their sheet straight. And if they are in the country illegally they are criminals. It’s really a simple concept.

    Like

  39. Like

  40. According to Redstate, explosives were arrested in the UK

    “Major Incident’ Declared After Explosives Arrests Near Base Used by US Forces”

    Like

  41. Like

  42. lol.

    Like

  43. MizDonna69
    It has been less than 2 weeks since a lot of the big money ads started going on air in the swing states. And less than a week into the airing of the ads, the GOPe consultants started an op to tell the world that the sky is falling and all hope is lost for November.
    And yes. It is an op
    The same people told journos all summer that Trump didn’t care about the Midterms and wouldn’t spend any money.
    It wasn’t true then and it isn’t true now.
    Why are they doing it?
    They want MAGA to lose.
    They want Trump stripped of power and to go off into the dustbin of history.
    They want their power back and they sound crazy to normal people right now.
    You don’t give up your country to be controlled by Communists.
    You fight like Hell to win.
    Last edited
    9:00 AM · Sep 27, 2026
    ·
    42
    Views

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  44. So I guess being against Sharia Law is now a problem?

    “Muslim Americans push back as Republican politicians stoke anti-Sharia rhetoric ahead of election”

    Like

  45. MizDonna69 is one deluded moron.

    MAGA cannot win without non-MAGA GOP voters and without some Indies.

    This MAGA against the world is BS.

    A lot of conservatives are not MAGA and a lot of MAGA are not conservatives.

    Deal with it

    Like

  46. If the GOP loses the midterms, only Trump will be to blame, not the “GOPe”

    You read it here first.

    Like

  47. You can’t nominate candidates like Ken Paxton and then whine about losing the midterms.

    You want to roll the dice on bad candidates just because they are more “MAGA”, go ahead, but then own it.

    No excuses.

    Like

  48. “The polls are wrong” crowd will like this article. Some of it seems persuasive, let’s see.

    https://redstate.com/adam-turner/2026/09/27/is-the-gop-doomed-n2207414

    Like

  49. I think Halperin is wrong that the GOP won’t win any of the races where polls are close due to lack of enthusiasm.

    In my view, the polling bias against Rs is real enough for close races to end up in GOP hands.

    Like

  50. LOL

    Democrat Senator Mark Kelly stumbles when asked if Troy Jackson — who wants to seize Mainers’ property and strip them of their health insurance — is a weak candidate:

    “I haven’t been to Maine yet.”

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  51. 7.4 Earthquake, Iceland.

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  52. if the election were held today I think Collins hangs on.

    Ohio, Texas, Alaska and Iowa would flip to the Democrats. NC is already gone.
    If you expect Republicans to flip Georgia you are delusional. Rogers in Michigan is a long shot even against a communist/Islamist. Thats 52 Democratic seats.

    Gas prices are killing the GOP.

    Like

  53. so why doesn’t the GOP remind everyone that Dems want no access to gasoline at all

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  54. phil the Republican has a shot in MN due to the corruption

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  55. i would not call Rogers a long shot. El-Sayed was 9 points behind what he polled in the primary

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  56. But Hormuzzle is closed.

    @GasBuddyGuy

    I already been seeing gas prices decline again. diesel will take several days to start dropping but for now, weekly drop in average gas price:

    MI down 23c/gal
    OH down 20c/gal IN,

    WI down 13c/gal

    IL down 11c/gal

    Like

  57. ssq texted me.

    Wants to know why the prese ce of trolls on the Straits of Hormuz is such a big contentious issue.

    I explained it is the issue of TOLLS, not TROLL.

    Like

  58. I hope Paxton wins. I know Cornyn would have won easily. Both can be true.

    Like

  59. I don’t think AK, Texas, IA or even OH are locks for the Dems.

    But none of them should be competitive given the 2024 election results.

    Like

  60. I know Cornyn would have won easily.”

    I know Cornyn would have won easily without having to spend so much money sorely needed for other races.

    Fixed it for Bitter.

    Like

  61. US making a good run at the President’s Cup, the problem is they enter the day down 3.

    Like

  62. US pulls it out wins President Cup.

    Captain Snedeker dedicates the win to President Trump.

    That will trigger the leftists.

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  63. Internationals fell apart in the end, was not even that close.

    Like

  64. Make sure this sheot is stopped.

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  65. NBC won’t show the cup presentation because it features Trump.

    Pravda would be proud.

    Like

  66. The migrant caravan from Honduras barreling towards the United States of America is showing no signs of slowing down. Reports are coming out that it’s GAINING IN NUMBERS.”

    Hopefully they will try to break through the day before the election.

    Like

  67. US crushes Internationals 9 1/2 to 2 1/2 in singles matches today.

    Like

  68. Biggest ass kicking in singles performance in the history of either Ryders’ or Presidents’ cup.

    Like

  69. AI contraptions are now being used to handle the oars on small boats on lakes.

    They call them ROW bots.

    Like

  70. upervisorwww.hendersonfuneralhome.com

    Article about Alfred Whiting, free black man during Civil War. He was a former slave who had been freed in 1852. Was still closely associated with the (white) Brady family. Isaac Brady enlisted in the confederate army in 1861, as did Alfred Brady.

    Both were both captured in 1863.

    Hall, however, said there’s no documentation that proves Whiting was a soldier.“Whiting attended many Confederate reunions because he had been the ‘body servant’ of Isaac Brady of Hampshire County during Brady’s time as a soldier in the Civil war

    A Hampshire Review funeral article listed on the site states Whiting entered the army’s Company K, 13th Virginia Infantry, in 1861 with Brady, and they were later transferred to the 11th Virginia Cavalry.

    Both were captured in 1863 by federal troops and jailed in Cumberland. While Brady was sent to Camp Chase in Ohio, Whiting was offered conditional release from jail, but refused to take an oath of allegiance “or to remain with the Federals.” Brady’s father posted $6,000 bond under the stipulation that Whiting would not return to Virginia during the war.

    Alfred survived the war and attended numerous reunions of former confederate soldiers. He lived until the late 1880s.

    Alfred requested that his pall bearers at his funeral be former Confederate soldiers.

    And they were.

    Like

  71. I wonder if there is a point to Walt’s post.

    Slavery was evil and practiced by evil people. Maybe Walt, like Wes, disagrees.

    Like

  72. Hey Walt, I guess Bitter is “selective” on what black stories are ok to post about the Civil War and Revolutionary War.

    Just like there were blacks who fought for the British, it seem that there were blacks that fought for the Confederacy.

    https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2011/09/black-confederates/#:~:text=Blacks%20who%20shouldered%20arms%20for,thousands%20of%20whites%20who%20served.

    Like

  73. I guess that goes against the woke revisionists that claim blacks won the Revolutionary War and the Civil War.

    Like

  74. Nowhere in his post did Walt claim slavery was not evil and was not practiced by evil people.

    Like

  75. A Georgia woman is charged with involuntary manslaughter after allegedly killing her boyfriend. According to FOX54, police said Hannah Cobb, who is white, and her boyfriend Telvin Osborne, who is Black, were both under the influence when they returned home from a night out and got into a fight.

    Cobb told police that she checked her firearm after coming back home as she does every night, but she accidentally triggered the weapon and struck Osborne in the chest. Police found Osborne in the master bedroom with a gunshot wound on his chest. He was later pronounced dead at the hospital.”

    Hmmmm…….. who comes home drunk, has a fight, and then decides to “check their gun” after the fight. Actually, she alleges she was cleaning the gun.

    “Involuntary manslaughter” is a gift.

    Like

  76. Hey Walt, I guess Bitter is “selective” on what black stories are ok to post about the Civil War and Revolutionary War.

    Irony meter explodes as Jason wanted to decide what stories Ken Burns could include in his documentary about the Revolution.

    Admitting that Blacks voluntarily fought on both sides of the Revolution is unacceptable to Jason.

    180,000 blacks fought for the Union and certainly contributed to the Union victory.

    The blacks who “fought” for the Confederacy were almost exclusively brought to the army by their masters to perform labor benefitting the traitors. Were there self-hating blacks who wanted to keep 4 million blacks in bondage? Possible. There were also a few Jews in the Wermacht in WW 2. Does that mean that Nazis were not evil?

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  77. Walt can explain his reason for his post.

    Like

  78. I think Walt said he had ancestors who fought for the Union and ancestors who fought for the traitors in the Civil War. Not sure why he acknowledges the traitors. They were no different than the SS in WW? I certainly would not admit there were Nazis in my family tree if they existed.

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  79. Admitting that Blacks voluntarily fought on both sides of the Revolution is unacceptable to Jason.”

    Tina would be proud of this lie.

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  80. Walt doesn’t have to “explain” a damm thing.

    He posted a factual story about the Civil War. Nowhere in the post is there anything about slavery not being evil.

    Since it didn’t comply with Bitter’s woke narrative, he didn’t like it.

    Walt is a nice guy, so I will tell Bitter to GFH for him

    Like

  81. Detroit Free Press endorses El Sayed because he is a “capitalist and a physician”.

    You can’t make this sh-t up.

    Like

  82. Hmm transiting during the day. But Iran comtrols Hormuzzle:

    Like

  83. EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 NOW: Another TEXAS US SENATE poll finds Ken Paxton on the verge of TAKING THE LEAD over James Talarico 🔵 James Talarico: 48% (=) 🔴 Ken Paxton: 48% GOVERNOR 🔴 Greg Abbott: 50% (+5) 🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 45% Stratus (R-aligned) | 9/22-24 | N=965LV

    Like

  84. The free passers said this race was over with. Another wrong comment.

    *

    *Another thing never posted at HHR – Fact check by Bitterlaw

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  85. The senate poles have largely looked bad for thr drats lately. The $$ advantage we have is tremendous. Needs to be well targeted.

    Like

  86. Walt doesn’t have to “explain” a damm thing.

    I believe he does. GFY

    Like

  87. Jason uses the word “woke” like Lefties use “racism” for anything he disagrees with.

    Like

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