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2026 House Forecast

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2026 Senate Forecast

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Weekend Thread

Trafalgar with a Republican lead in Alaska:

Sullivan 47
Peltola 46
J. Sullivan 3
Heikes 1

8 responses to “Weekend Thread”

  1. I guess i was posting on the dead thread.

    Walt posted:

    “Another person showed a many decade chart of crude oil prices and deisel fuel prices. Today’s numbers showed a HUGE gap, biggest gap ever between the two numbers.”

    Like

  2. My responses:

    Assuming reasonable profit margin of 20% for refiner and gas station”

    Zzzzz….

    Who decides what “reasonable margin” is? “Someone else” on Facebook”?”

    The “oil companies are gouging consumers” has been a popular meme among people who don’t understand the laws of supply and demand since oil was discovered in Titusville, PA in 1859.

    Today’s numbers showed a HUGE gap, biggest gap ever between the two numbers.”

    More zzzzzzzz…

    The gap is called the “crack spread” or refining margin. The cost of crude oil is only one factor. There is a severe global shortage of diesel refining capacity coupled with a shortage of the heavy crude that diesel is made of and is what the ME produces, increasing the conversion cost. Finally the demand for diesel is more inelastic than gasoline, because the industries that use it (trucking, shipping, agriculture, etc.) cannot substitute or slow down operations.

    That post from “someone on Facebook” is proof you cannot believe things you see on the Internet.

    Like

  3. Tina posted:

    BREAKING: The average sales price for a new single-family home fell -$47,700 MoM in August, or -9.1%, to $478,700, the largest monthly drop on record. This is the lowest level since August 2024 and the 2nd-lowest level since September 2021.”

    My response:

    The drop in home prices is not particularly good news because it is probably due to higher mortgage rates.

    “Lower prices to clear inventory” is not a great thing for businesses.

    Like

  4. Boston Globe not far left enough for Western MA Communists and called “MAGA” and an “ally for corporate lobbies” for covering lesbian bar story.

    Some of the comments are funny.

    “Could you PLEASE use a more accessible FONT? This is SO hurtful to SO many!”

    https://twitchy.com/gordon-k/2026/09/25/crazy-commies-continue-clown-car-cavalcade-in-last-ditch-bar-debacle-n2432686

    Like

  5. That AK poll might be better than it seems.

    The other Sullivan and Heikes are running as Rs.

    But I doubt Heikes will get 1%, he doesn’t even have a website and if you google him he has provided no info to any election site or voter guide.

    BIOGRAPHY

    EDUCATION

    Candidate did not provide

    WORK & MILITARY

    Candidate did not provide

    AFFILIATIONS

    Candidate did not provide

    POLITICAL OFFICES HELD

    Candidate did not provide

    POLITICAL OFFICES SOUGHT

    Candidate did not provide

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  6. price gouging by gas stations might in theory happen in very remote stations out in the middle of nowhere when there is no competition. But it doesn’t happen in built up areas because of the competition. If one chain tried to price gouge, the others would say, thank you, and undercut them and win on volume, and the fact that their coffee, donuts, and convenience store items are sold instead of the competition’s.

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  7. Feeling better and better about our prospects to hold the senate. Might even be hope for Ohio. But AK and ME moving in our direction it seems. El-Sayed is barely ahead in polls, but remember he was +10 in the primary polling and won +1.

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  8. Even the new Big Data poll of Michigan suggests El-Sayed is in trouble. Baris is ticked off and angry at Trump.

    Remember the last poll of Baris to grade him on was when he said the KY race was tied and Massie lost by ten. Baris now has El-Sayed up 47-42 over Rogers, but where are the other 11%? My guess is Baris got El-Sayed’s high water mark number and missed Rogers numbers badly.

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