Polls all over the place
Emerson Generic ballot is D+11
Siena has Shapiro up 20 in PA
Siena has Collins up 3 in Maine, 49/46
Siena has El-Sayed up 49/44 in Michigan
co/efficient has the Michigan Senate race tied at 45
Siena has Pappas up 50/45 in NH
New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +7 | 214 | 221 |
***There are no “freepassers” here***
Thursday Thread
57 responses to “Thursday Thread”
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DW, you might have to send one of the HHR correspondents to cover this growing story.
Taylor Lorenz has entered the fray and is chastising people for not understanding that you can use a “sippy straw” to drink while wearing a mask. Of course the straw is exposed to the bar environment and then you are sticking it into your mouth.
Look who is calling other people weird
CT congressman Rosa Weirdo De Lauro got involved. Kinda.
“getting a group together to visit the weird lesbian bar in western mass dm if interested, can’t talk here”
Followed by
“trip cancelled. No one wanted to mask”
Not to be outdone, the Boston Globe says this has “splintered the queer community”.
“A lesbian bar in Greenfield eased its stringent mask mandate, a decision that has splintered the queer community in the city and beyond.”
The Globe also says they have 1000 new subscriptions from people “curious” about the story.
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I don’t think she has ever led in a pole before the election.
Remember the economy is strong and core inflation is down and real incomes are up.
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Lasers are cheaper than muh kinetic weapons shortages.
Further proof that Hormuzzle is open.
(Don’t tell the freepassers that and don’t tell them that pipelines will be the future of oil transport in that area (not Hormuzzle)LikeLike
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The freepassers kept touting muh weapons shortages.
That was Jan saying that and blaming Ukraine for not surrendering.
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I wonder if Clancy or Tina hear more voices in their heads.
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DW – Why are you ignoring the real big election:
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A sitting member of Congress makes up story of black kid being murdered when there is no evidence of that. It has been ruled an accident and the grand jury didn’t charge anybody.
If we weren’t a banana republic now she would at least be censored.
“Meet the parents of Nolan Wells today at our forum, where we will honor them and other parents of murdered young boys. Our young black boys are being murdered, and nobody seems to care.”
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Dems certainly don’t care. Look at the murder rates in Chicago where Republicans run nothing.
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don’t tell them that pipelines will be the future of oil transport in that area”
Yeah, the imaginary freepassers are behind the 8 ball.
I have been making the case here for weeks that pipelines will eventually make the Strait mostly irrelevant.
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I wonder if Clancy or Tina hear more voices in their heads.”
I will go with Tina for $1000 please.
Clancy only heard voices for a few minutes while she killed her kids.
Tina seems to have a permanent problem.
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Thinking again about the status of the Senate, here are my current thoughts:
Kansas: The 47th GOP seat. Despite polls showing a close race, the GOP should pull this one out.
Iowa: Polls are all over the place. The Republican has led in 6 of the last 10 likely voters samples, and there was one tie. Very likely that the GOP pulls this one out to get to 48.
Maine: This one could turn into a blowout for Collins as she has taken the lead even in GOP hostile polling like Siena. 49 seats.
Texas: Paxton likely pulls this out in the end as enough voters figure out what a clown Talarico is. 50 seats.
Michigan: Candidate quality matters. Currently El-Sayed is up 2 in the RCP average, but recall that in the Dem primary he was up 10.2 in the RCP average and won by just 1 point. I don’t believe this race is pollable. People are afraid to tell a pollster that they oppose a radical Jew-hating Muslim. But even if the 9 point under performance of El-Sayed drops to only 4 points underperforming against the polls, Rogers still wins. I give the edge to Rogers. 51 seats.
Minnesota: The GOP’s chances are very real as the Dem candidate is tied directly to all the fraud and corruption of the Walz crime family. Survey USA is a long time pollster of MN and usually has a blue tilt, and they have it tied. However, this one has Lucy and the football written all over it, and despite all the corruption, the Dem pulls it out by a point or two.
Ohio: I am not seeing it. Brown is the functional incumbent again, and Husted cannot seem to gain any momentum. I think its over unless something changes.
New Hampshire: Polls all over the place, but Sununu falls short. If it wasn’t such a bad environment for the GOP he would win.
North Carolina: THIS will be the race where everyone assumed it would be a Cooper blowout but then is suddenly close at the end and everyone will be smacking their foreheads saying if only I knew it would be this close, I would have voted.
Georgia: Its been tightening, but not enough. GOP will win the Governor’s race, but too many ticket splitters.
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I will take those results, losing OH would be a shame, Trump won it by 500k votes 3 times in a row.
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“An Australian expat in Bali was found dead with his two young kids in an apparent murder-suicide after a haunting final phone call with his wife — in which his daughter was heard screaming “stop daddy.”
Damien John Shaw, 56, strangled his 6-year-old son and 4-year-old daughter before hanging himself in their bungalow in Kuta on September 13, police said.
His wife — who had been traveling 600 miles away in Jakarta — called a neighbor to check on her family after she heard her terrified daughter crying and saying “stop daddy,”
I would have recommended a fair trial followed by immediate execution for this guy had he not successfully killed himself, but I am afraid John Goggin would call me a “man-hater”.
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As long as R hold the Senate and can keep confirming conservatives to the federal bench the midterms won’t be a total loss.
Lose the House AND the Senate would be a disaster.
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Paxton’s ex-wife urged women to vote for Paxton even “if they are mad”.
Hopefully that message will get across to some people.
If Paxton loses it will be because conservative Rs that supported Cornyn won’t vote for him. He needs 90% of Rs plus about 30% of Indies to win.
I think there are Indies like me that think Paxton is a horrible candidate but will vote for him anyway because Talarico is a weirdo commie.
Ideally Paxton and Cornyn would bury the hatchet. Paxton was stupid to burn all bridges with Cornyn among all the other stupid things he has done to torpedo his candidacy. But there could still be time to come to some sort of agreement.
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Haven’t seen John Goggin in awhile.
I guess there is not enough new pro filicide propaganda out there for him to regurgitate here.
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The fake news outlets are back in WH thanks to a Trump appointed judge.
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“Pennsylvania Democrat Janelle Stelson leads Republican incumbent Scott Perry in the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, according to the September 2026 Franklin and Marshal College poll.
Stelson leads Perry 47% to 44% in the 10th district race, according to the poll, based on interviews conducted by the college’s Center for Opinion Research earlier this month. The college interviewed 145 Democrats, 167 Republicans, and 78 independents across the district.
Among Republican voters, Stelson received 12% support, while Perry received 2% from Democrats.” Indies are 61-29.”
This is my district and I was actually polled for this survey, so I was one of the 78 Indies.
This is not as bad as I thought it might be, Stelson is like 80%+ in the prediction markets.
If Rs unite for Perry he would win, so he needs to cut that 12% R for Stelson at least by half.
Considering it is a college poll and small sample I don’t think Perry is out of it but he has his work cut out for him.
His previously solid R district was watered down by including parts of Dauphin/Harrisburg that are heavily pro-Dem. He will need a big margin in York Co to win and at least hold his own in Cumberland.
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DW, you forgot Alaska.
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I did forget about Alaska…sorry about that, I had worked around it and was going to come back to it but forgot.
I believe this is the hardest state to figure out. Sullivan is in trouble, Peltola is well-liked and has a moderate image, whether or not its true.
I wouldn’t count on Alaska if that was the last state we need. My impression is that if the GOP otherwise holds at least 51 seats we probably get Alaska too, but if we fall short or have 50, we probably lose Alaska too.
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Dems play to win, covering all angles. So immediately as soon as Siena produces a fresh poll of Maine with Collins up 3, they were ready to go and released a UMASS-Lowell poll that is STALE (8/28-9/14) to give the impression that Jackson still leads.
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I know top lines should balance out the cross tabs overall, but n=78 is a really small sample to glean partisan split amongst Independents.
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Then in MI-4, a lean/likely R district, the Dem had release an internal poll in June show him up 3. So he just released a new internal poll showing him up only 1. LOL…why release that and give the impression its slipping away?
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Quantus just dropped an OH senate poll with Husted and Brown tied at 47. Ohio would be a huge get for us.
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I know top lines should balance out the cross tabs overall, but n=78 is a really small sample to glean partisan split amongst Independents.”
Right, but this is a congressional district so you have a universe of about 400k voters.
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Drats counter messaging is orange man bad. Then. Trump suckered into muh ch n no access to wh.
And the economic data has been generally quite strong.
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During the 2020 Maine U.S. Senate campaign, a Quinnipiac University poll released in September 2020 showed Democrat Sara Gideon with a double-digit lead (54% to 42%) over Republican incumbent Susan Collins.”
Collins won by 9.
Heck, only a 21 point miss give them a break.
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Quinnipiac and Marist are the most notorious gaslighters.
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Peltola is well-liked and has a moderate image”
She is a flaming liberal, and the message has to be that no matter what she says in AK, she belongs to (and votes with) the party that wants to kill the energy, mining, and fishing industry in AK>
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Quinnipiac and Marist are the most notorious gaslighters”
I remember PPP-D had hilarious polls, and their comment section would say things like the Dem may be behind, but WE can catch up.
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Peltola is no wilting flower…
“I hope Planned Parenthood knows that if we don’t win it’s more their loss than ours. F-CK THOSE BITCHES,” she later wrote in a text message to her staff in January 2024 that was viewed by The Times.
Later that year, Ms. Peltola, appearing to refer to a woman on the board of the local Planned Parenthood chapter, wrote in another text, “I hope she dies of a botched abortion.”
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As far as shoving an aide, there is an easy explanation.
“Unfocused”
The campaign denied that it had been a shove and said that Ms. Peltola had bumped the aide accidentally on her husband’s first birthday after his death, and she was unfocused.“
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Not sure why the NYT of all places would break this story.
My guess is they knew it was coming out and moved to get out ahead of it.
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right…by election day forgotten, but release it two weeks before…
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Not,looking good for the drats in Florida, Ohio, or Maine.
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From yesterday, I wanted to give these google maps coordinates to Bitter for where the traditional site of Noah’s Ark has been, long before the more modern identification of “Mt. Ararat” which is definitely not the right mountain as it is volcanic. But Mt. Cudi shown below fits and is within the ancient kingdom/region of Urartu (Ararat). Both ancient Jewish, Christian, and later Islamic traditions all held that this was the correct location.
37.365129, 42.495624
You will see a dark impression near the top of the mountain, and its exactly 450 long and 75 feet wide, the dimensions given in the Bible for Noah’s ark. It has never been excavated due to the never ending political hostility in the area.
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But, Hormuzzle is closed.
Tina is arguing with herself again. Nobody at HHR said it was closed.
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Bridge day.
My score? 1750. Dead last.
Am burning my lucky underwear as they must have lost their mojo during laundry on Monday.
But I had more fun than anyone else…
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Trump banning communist news reporters right now and push for building a big assed Trump arch and wanting to add his name on some other D.C. building all unforced errors that will hurt R candidates for Congress.
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Trump being a narcissistic jerk is baked into the cake, we all know who he is by now.
Gas prices, OTOH, that will likely kill us.
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Unforced errors, but not surprised because Trump is Trump.
I expect there will be more between now and election.
…Sigh…
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Counteracting the bad news on gasoline prices, Trump SHOULD be getting good press for Greenland deal and for a greatly improving national economy. But the MSM will make sure economic positives will remain as the greatest story never told.
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Piker is vile but many Dems are willing to accept him to try to beat Trump.
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new thread
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