According to TIPP.
US Senate Minnesota
🟦Peggy Flanagan 44%
🟥Michele Tayofa 42%
⬜️Marisa Simonetti 3%
🟨Rebecca Whiting 1%
TIPP poll – 8/31-9/2; 1201 LV
US Senate Montana
🟥Alme 44%
🟨Bodnar 22%
🟦Bankhead 19%
🟨Austin 2%
Peak Insights – 8/23-25 – 600 LV
US Senate Michigan
🟥Rogers 46%
🟦El-Sayed 44%
Glengariff – 8/31-9/3 – 600 LV
NY GOVERNOR POLL
🟦 Kathy Hochul (inc): 49.6%
🟥 Bruce Blakeman: 45.7%
⬜️ Not sure: 4.7%
——
🔵 NYC: Hochul 60-33%
🔴 Upstate: Blakeman 51-46%
🔴 Suburbs: Blakeman 53-43%
McLaughlin – Blakeman (R) internal – 8/27-31 – 800 LV
NY-21
🟦 Blake Gendebien: 44%
🟥 Anthony Constantino: 47%
Impact Research – D Internal – 8/30-9/2 – 500LV
GA-7
🟦 Tony Kozycki: 43%
🟥 Rich McCormick: 46%
20/20 Insight – D Internal – 8/20-26 – 445 LV
67 responses to “MN Senate – Two point race”
First.
LikeLike
They wasted over $1 billion doing that in 2024, and it doomed senators Casey, Brown and Tester. However, Trump was running for President in 2024. Trump is not running for President in 2026 and that is when MAGA stays home.
Fixed it.”
Somehow the logic that Dems lose when Trump is on the ballot so they should run against him when he is not escapes me.
Unless of course the theory is that MAGAs will stay home because of anti-Trump ads.
LikeLike
If I can make a Big Tent suggestion, not all of the feet should be facing upwards.
LikeLike
Should I send Tafoya a check?
So far I have contributed to Paxton, Collins, my congressman Perry, Garrity, Rogers and Husted.
Tafoya seems like a bridge too far, although I contributed to Garrity and I don’t think she will win either.
LikeLike
Unless of course the theory is that MAGAs will stay home because of anti-Trump ads.
No. The theory is that MAGA sits out mid-terms and off-year elections because they are only loyal to Trump.
LikeLike
I am thinking about adding “Non-Partisan” to the HHR main page. Its absurd of course, but both https://x.com/PollTracker2024 and https://x.com/IAPolls2022 say they are non-partisan, when it is abundantly obvious that its not true. They treat El-Sayed like he’s the second coming of Christ, and pin polls showing him up…but when Rogers is up, they post the poll and quickly post other stuff after it like polymarket showing El-Sayed is the favorite.
Someone truly “non-partisan” will have no interest at all in politics. But the very fact that they are interested because they post all the polling data means they are indeed partisan.
LikeLike
I get the theory. I just don’t get how “running against Trump” changes that dynamic.
Trump has won two elections and come within 40k votes of winning 3 even if you don’t believe in fraud so I hope the Dems keep spending money “running against him”.
Trump has been around now for for more than 11 years. The only people that care if he is called a fascist are those already voting for Democrats. The rest don’t care what he is called even if you spend $1 billion to make it stick.
“Running against Trump” is as stupid as Casey running pro-abortion ads. Every woman (or man, if there are any) who decided their vote on abortion in PA, whether pro or con, did not do so based on ads. Even more stupid, Casey spent most of the abortion ad money in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh markets, where he already had the pro-abortion vote locked up.
If El Sayed think he is going to get more votes running against Trump in MI he is an idiot. Anyone who hates Trump enough to vote for an anti-semitic Communist is already voting for him.
The best strategy for Dems is exactly to capitalize on what Bitter said above, keep MAGA home. But to do that, don’t attack Trump. The best way to keep MAGA home is to convince them that this election doesn’t really matter and nothing changes whether they vote or not.
Since a lot of MAGA voters are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, it might work.
LikeLike
Casey basically ran 3 types of ads.
Abortion, not a great look from someone who had previously made a career out of being “pro-life”.
McCormick owned a house in New Jersey. BFD, since everyone knew McCormick was born and raised in PA.
Hedge fund manager. Zzzz. McCormick is rich, but so is Casey. People have the impression everyone in the Senate is wealthy, and they are right, its like a millionaire’s club.
The thing about attack ads, when they work they drive up the opponent’s negatives. But they never drive up your positives. In the end, Casey lost because nobody could think of anything HE had accomplished in 18 years in the Senate.
LikeLike
For some reason, Baris says Republicans are wasting their money on the Michigan race. Says it’s an absolute long shot. That surprised me. He says North Carolina and Georgia are flat out gone and basically says Michigan is in the same category. I agree about Georgia and North Carolina….but Michigan? He wants the money to go to defending Texas, Also says Kansas is vulnerable. He says Rogers couldn’t win even with Trump on the ballot in 2024 and won’t win in an off year election when the Trump supporters won’t turn out as much. Gives no credence to the fact that the Democrat is a Muslim/ socialist. Basically, says fear of socialism isn’t going to help Republicans, and that the voters don’t care about that and are much more concerned about cost of living….plus the Iranian war is splitting the Maga coalition. If you listen to him it will make you want to blow your brains out. Doesn’t seem as concerned about Maine so I guess that is something. He wants Republicans to spend their money on defending Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas. I agree with directing resources to those states…especially Texas. I am perplexed about his attitude toward Michigan. I thought that was a definite pick up opportunity but apparently not.
LikeLike
GBAO, a Dem polling firm doing a poll for “third way” has found from 1000 RVs that Republican Party favorability is 37/52 (-15). Oof.
Then I scrolled further, and they report the Democratic Party favorability to be 34/53 (-19)!!
See this is exactly what I keep seeing as I study polls. The electorate wants to hold Trump more accountable, but they fear giving power to the new Democratic Party run now by communists. Here is where the GOP has a good opening to recover. If gas prices can drop even a little, and the GOP can press the fear of the new “Commucrat” Party, enough voters could be persuaded to stay the course.
LikeLike
Iran Official Propaganda?
Kind of.
AP
“Families grieve in the ruins of an Iranian school where a US strike killed dozens of children”
LikeLike
Dems aren’t winning Kansas.
You read it here first.
LikeLike
It’s not only the GOP that has been hammering home the evils of the Democratic Socialists of America movement but Fox News has been at the forefront of this sounding the alarm bell as well. They seem to open every show with something about the DSA and the dangers it brings to America.
LikeLike
Speaking of the GOP holding their convention in Dallas tonight and trying to pull Paxton, with others, across the finish line Trump and his campaign cash should also focus ads on ABC this Saturday night where the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Austin, Texas to play the #4 Texas Longhorns in a titanic battle.
A perfect opportunity for Paxton ads.
LikeLike
That’s nice but the problem is most people don’t get their news from Fox.
Then you have Reuters and AP and Al Jazeera and NPR and other leftist “news” agencies.
Add up ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, MSNOW, PBS, Telemundo, Univision and that’s where the vast majority
Then there’s Reuters and AP.
Then there is the NYT, WAPO, USA Today, Chicago Tribune, Miami Herald, LA Times, Philadelphia Enquirer, Daily News and just about every other newspaper in America.
To counter that you have a segment of X. NY Post. Fox, Newsmax and OAN.
It’s like 98-2 it you were keeping score.
LikeLike
That post is convoluted but you get the idea.
LikeLike
And for Jon Husted (Ohio) ads.
LikeLike
A perfect opportunity for Paxton ads”
Considering he is running against a whacko weirdo Communist in TX he shouldn’t have to run ads at all.
I bet Cornyn wouldn’t have had to spend a cent to beat Talarico by 10
LikeLike
He says Rogers couldn’t win even with Trump on the ballot in 2024 and won’t win in an off year election when the Trump supporters won’t turn out as much. “
I don’t buy this logic.
Rogers lost because some Trump voters didn’t vote for him, about 50 thousand of them.
But Slotkin was a much better candidate for MI than Sayed. She was a like a 4 term House member and she ran as a (fake) moderate.
Sayed underperformed in the Dem primary. He might well underperform again in the GE.
LikeLiked by 1 person
If gas prices can drop even a little, and the GOP can press the fear of the new “Commucrat” Party, enough voters could be persuaded to stay the course.”
I hope there is a strategy for this to happen.
There are a lot of wells in the US (and around the world) that are not profitable at $40 a barrel but certainly are at $90, even $80 or $70.
It takes awhile to bring them online but unless Hormuz is completely shut off, which it isn’t, the end of the summer should bring on an oil glut.
Iran is left with the attack tanker strategy to run out the clock for their Dem allies.
LikeLike
”NOW: Donald Trump-aligned PAC just surged nearly $50 MILLION dollars in ads across half-a-dozen battleground midterm races — NYT Including $15 million to elect Mike Rogers in MI. The MAGA cavalry is HERE! 🔥 These funds are coming from MAGA Inc.-backed No Going Back PAC Inc. NEW HAMPSHIRE US Senate is on that list for $10M 👀 $11M is being dispatched for Ohio. President Trump a few days ago: “I’m allocating $400-$500M. We’re gonna spend a lot of money, because we don’t want to lose our country!” 🇺🇸 Major Trump rallies coming up as well.”
LikeLike
Encouraging news. Hope its not too late.
LikeLike
The conservative candidate in Brazil has closed in on commie President Lula, who is 80 and effectively seeking what would be a 4th term (non consecutive).
If Lula can be toppled, it would be the last of the major leftist leaders in South America, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia have elected conservative Presidents.
Interestingly enough, all have been supported by Trump, and despite his anti-immigration policies being very unpopular in these countries, it is hard to deny his influence. Milei in Argentina, Kast in Chile, Fujimori in Peru, De la Estrella in Colombia have all aligned themselves with Trump to win.
LikeLike
The conservative in Brazil is former president Bolsonaro’s son. Bolsonaro remains under house arrest.
Obviously, not for long if his son gets elected.
LikeLike
I will not be reporting on Trump’s convention. I nominate JG. Jan has already reported that it is the greatest gathering in the history of the world and that Trump’s 2 1/2 hour speech without notes or a theme beyond renaming places was brilliant.
LikeLike
Dammit, I only trust Bitter to report on these things.
What are you going to do, watch the woke NFL?
Where is your sense of duty man?
LikeLike
I am screwed. Nothing here about a diet of scrapple, bacon or alcohol rich water. Physical labor? Community ties?
I guess I can qualify for strong family, so I might live to 75.
“In a modest wooden home in Sardinal, about a 20-minute drive from Costa Rica’s Pacific coast, Jose Flores spends his days napping, eating meals prepared by his granddaughter, and arm-wrestling with her.
His family and official records indicate that he is 119 years old, which would make him the world’s oldest man, though international verification of his birth date is still pending as specialists review historical documents.
Sardinal is a hot town on the Nicoya Peninsula, one of the world’s five regions commonly known as Blue Zones, where people tend to live longer and healthier lives and are more likely to reach the age of 100.
Residents attribute their longevity to calcium- and magnesium-rich water, a diet based on corn and beans, physical work, and strong family and community ties.
LikeLike
Bittersville is a hot town here in York Co, so there is that.
No, I don’t know what hot town means exactly, I hope it doesn’t mean wild nighlife.
LikeLike
Bitter – sorry to disappoint your claim I would be watching the RNC Convention, as I am too preoccupied to deal with the convention. I was relying on you Bitter to do a thorough review of the event.
LikeLike
I have watched every Republican and Democrat convention, every Presidential debate and VP debate, the SOTU addresses and many Congressional and Governor’s debates since I was 10. I can’t waste time on finding out if the map is changing names again.
LikeLike
Zzzz… sound like an MSM description of the event.
LikeLike
I guess I will have to rely on the MSM version.
Oh wait, Bitter already provided it!
LikeLike
a diet based on corn and beans”
I guess it is better to die young….
LikeLike
Bitter will be sorry he missed the announcement that the two largest cities in PA will henceforth be known as Trumpadelphia and Trumpsburg.
LikeLike
MLB is getting out in front of the announcement by introducing the newly minted Trumpadelphia Trumpies.
LikeLike
Michigan Democrat State Rep. Karen Whitsett is calling out the DSA wing of her party, accusing them of “being more racist than the KKK.” She is also mobilizing black voters in Michigan against backing U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. In a blunt statement, Whitsett said, “It doesn’t change, it’s just different slave owners.” Her statement was a reference to Democrat Party leaders who believe that all black voters only support and vote for Democrat candidates. Whitsett went on to say that she believes that El-Sayed is not working in the best interests of black voters in Michigan.
LikeLike
Damm, how does she really feel
LikeLike
I just checked.
Only Fox has this story up.
Imagine a GOP rep saying things like that about the GOP.
It would be front and center on EVERY news outlet.
We live in a Pravda like media environment.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Its further confirmation that Dems have been taken over by the DSA. If regular DEMS still controlled the party that woman wouldn’t have to say anything like that. The Big Tent cartoon is reality.
LikeLike
Bitter, I’m going to bypass the GOP convention. Living up here in the Great Northwest it will be my duty and responsibility to watch the Seahawks. Just left the local Fred Meyer store-people wearing Seahawk gear were plenty and loading up on the snacks. Pre-game starts at 4pm or about the same time as 35,000 fans will be leaving the Mariners matinee game which is about two yards from the football stadium.
For those that are interested here is speaking order, hour by hour.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4717742/rnc-midterm-convention-speaking-order/
PS-still believe that the GOP or Trump’s campaign cash should heavily invest in ads for this Saturday night’s titanic clash between Ohio State (Jon Husted) and Texas (Paxton)….or about 10-15 million viewers.
LikeLike
LikeLike
LikeLike
@EricLDaugh
·
🚨 JUST NOW: A panicked James Talarico is BACKTRACKING his comments that there are 6 genders Nope, TOO LATE! Texas won’t buy it! Q: Do you still believe that? TALARICO: “No. I missed the mark on some of my past statements…I meant there are a small percentage of people with genetic abnormalities.” 🤯 He knows Texans will NOT go along with transgender BS. Vote for
@KenPaxtonTX
!
LikeLike
so he now believes in 5?
LikeLike
what could go wrong? “UK’s Labour Party Plans to Put 3500 Illegal Aliens in Town of 350”
LikeLike
just saw from the wizards, Fetterman is speaking at the GOP confab in Dallas via video.
LikeLike
JG – We liked our trip to Seattle – even if it ended in gunfire. I bet it would be a fun place to watch a game.
LikeLike
🟥 Ken Paxton: 51% 🟦 James Talarico: 49%
Governor: 🟥 Greg Abbott: 82% 🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 18%
Great candidate there, janzam!
LikeLike
Fetterman is still a 98% supporter of Schumer’s positions. He just refuses to abandon Israel and call for its destruction.
LikeLike
Bitter will sit through 3 hours plus of far left propaganda disguised as a football game but won’t watch an extremely important convention with major implications for the midterm elections.
But heck, at least by the end of the game he will learned important lessons on race relations taught by self entitled millionaire players, coaches and owners and will be properly instructed to stop hate and end racism and be indoctrinated on “it takes all of us” to promote Marxism.
I would watch the convention but the finale of Alone is on.
LikeLike
Fetterman is still a 98% supporter of Schumer’s positions. He just refuses to abandon Israel and call for its destruction.”
He is definitely a flaming liberal.
But he doesn’t hate America, a rarity among Dems these days.
LikeLike
I hope Paxton wins by 1 vote.
Maybe the deadenders will learn their lesson.
I know….. will never happen.
janzam thinks the only reason Paxton is tied or losing to Talarico is that “voters are not paying attention”.
They are only paying attention to the Governor’s race where Abbott is well ahead.
LikeLike
Viking Cruises just ran an ad and said their cruises are for “the thinking person”.
Sorry, I would be more impressed if they said the cruises were for people who wanted to eat and drink themselves to death.
I can think at home.
LikeLike
Fetterman is also not for open borders, like many in the gop-e
LikeLike
Why is the Hochul and Blakeman race suddenly so close?
LikeLike
So Jason will you eat a crow sandwich if Paxton wins by a lot more than “1”?
LikeLike
Why is the Hochul and Blakeman race suddenly so close?
Some is due to the fact she has no control over Mamdani. Some is due to the fact that NYC voters who did not vote in the race for Mayor realized that Mamdani meant what he said.
LikeLiked by 1 person
So Jason will you eat a crow sandwich if Paxton wins by a lot more than “1”?”
Will you eat crow sandwich if he wins by less than 10? Cornyn would have won by at least 10, maybe 15.
After all you said he was a great candidate.
Let’s see if he is a great candidate that beats a certified whacko commie by at least 10 or costs a lot of money to squeak by.
Maybe if he squeaks by janzam will admit he is a horribly weak baggage laden unpopular candidate.
Nahhhh…
LikeLike
Why is the Hochul and Blakeman race suddenly so close?”
NY has a lot of R areas upstate and on Long Island. Trump got over 43% of the vote, including 75% of Orthodox Jews, the fastest growing Jewish community (200k Orthodox Jewish voters in NY),
I think the Jewish vote is swinging away from Democrats and that is 15% of the vote.
LikeLike
Nero taps out.
As I guessed, he just has too many “thoughts” (demons).
LikeLike
Ziga has food but his shovel broke and he has beginning of frostbite.
For the first time seems to be wavering slightly.
No slam dunk.
LikeLike
Ziga wins.
It helps to bag a moose early on.
LikeLike
Nice ending.
They pretend they are doing a camera/media check and bring his brother.
As the producer asks Ziga if his brother would encourage him to fight on, he says yes.
Meanwhile his brother sneaks up behind him and whistles.
When he hears the whistle he knows he won without even turning around.
LikeLike
“Yes, I’m Senator John Fetterman [from] Pennsylvania. Yes, I am a Democrat.
Why am I here talking to you today? Because, well, I’m a common sense Democrat. I’m always going to stand with America, I’m always going to reject the extremes and socialism, and that anti-American way of life.
Dave McCormick is the kind of senator that gets the job done, and he’s going to fight for Pennsylvania. I’m proud to count him as my friend.”
Heh, watch Dems jump off tall buildings.
LikeLike
Cornyn would have won by at least 10, maybe 15.
That is sheer speculation. If that was the case Cornyn would not have lost the primary by double digits. If Paxton wins the GE by a large margin, though, that would be proof he was the better candidate.
LikeLike
“Elon Musk to spend big bucks to help Ken Paxton. The world’s first trillionaire will spend up to $200 million in Texas.”
It appears Musk is all in getting Texas thru the GE. I doubt he would be spending as much if Establishment-Cornyn was on the ticket.
LikeLike
He wouldn’t need to spend ANY money if Cornyn was on the ticket.
This is $200 million that could be spent on other candidates, not propping up Mr. Baggage.
LikeLike