New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+3.6+2.0+1.5+1.0+1.0+0.4+1.8+5.0+6.0+6.5
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Lots of Dem Internal polls

Michigan Governor 2026

(Likely voters)
🟦Jocelyn Benson 52%
🟥John James 43%

US Senate Michigan 2026

🟦Abdul El-Sayed 50%
🟥Mike Rogers 45%

MSU/YouGov (C- 5.5 skew in 2024) | 8/10-8/20

SC SENATE POLL

🟦 Annie Andrews: 42%
🟥 Darline Graham: 39%
🟨 Kasie Whitener: 6%
⬜️ Not sure: 13%

Impact Research-D (Andrews internal) | 8/14-22 | 900 LV

US Senate New Mexico 2026

🟦Ben Ray Luján 53% (incumbent)
🟥Larry Marker 38%

Research & Polling poll | 8/21-8/28 LV

FL-13 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem)

Full field
🟦 Leela Gray: 44%
🟥 Anna Paulina Luna (i): 43%
🟨 Tony D’Arrigo: 7%

Hart Research-D | 8/25-27

76 responses to “Lots of Dem Internal polls”

  1. and remember that today is the day that a new polling firm is supposed to drop a Texas poll, and they were bragging about the results they were going to show even before finishing the poll, so it’s going to be open gaslighting, probably Talarico up 10 would be my guess

    Like

  2. Six R deadenders were trying the give Dems a big win on the rules vote.

    Rs were saved from a big embarrassment by 2 Dems.

    The Dems are not happy.

    Pass the popcorn…and screw the GOP deadenders

    Democrats shocked after 2 members cross aisle to help Republicans

    Speaker Mike Johnson nearly lost control of the House floor — again — because of a group of disgruntled conservatives.

    Then a pair of Democrats stepped in to help.

    Two centrist Democrats, Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, took the unusual step Tuesday of rescuing GOP leaders’ own agenda in the face of a conservative rebellion.

    Those Democrats backed a key GOP procedural vote that needed to succeed for Republicans to later bring several bills to the floor.

    The reason? It helped pave the way for a priority bill for Golden supporting lobstermen, according to two people familiar with the discussion. The bill already has White House support, and Golden and others hope it can become law this year.

    But their vote also allowed Johnson to proceed with messaging votes that Democrats oppose, including a resolution to condemn socialism that Republicans hope to use against Democrats on the campaign trail.

    The defection of those two Democrats quickly enraged members of their own party — including some party leaders, who were shocked by the two members’ votes, several people told CNN.

    Asked whether he’s disappointed in those members, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters: “The two Democrats who voted for the rule did not give any member of House Democratic leadership a heads-up, and as a result, blindsided the entire caucus and created a significant breach of trust.

    Jeffries said it’s “under discussion” whether the two lawmakers will face repercussions.”

    Like

  3. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who was known for her iron-fisted leadership while in power, expressed surprise that a rule was allowed to fail.

    • “Voting for the rule is something that I, as Speaker, we never — we didn’t even consider that anybody would do that,” she told reporters.

    Awwww…

    Like

  4. Jeffries is desperate to appear tough in his flailing attempt at regaining control of the party.

    Like

  5. Tne MSM is in a tizzy.

    The Hill: “2 Dems, in highly unusual move cross the aisle to save GOP…”

    Axios: “House Dems left reeling…..”

    Politico ” 2 House Dems vote to salvage GOP agenda”

    CNN: Dems Shocked after 2 Dems cross aisle..”

    Bloomberg; Two Dems Spare Speaker Johnson…

    Like

  6. The Dems also screwed the GOP deadenders.

    Win-win

    The conservatives who voted against the rule did so to protest a measure not included in it, the Senate-crafted continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through Dec. 11, which contains provisions a number of House conservatives opposed. But the CR passed under suspension of the rules, depriving them of the opportunity to block it.

    Harris, Higgins, Norman, Roy and Sessions were the GOP holdouts.

    Granstanded for nothing.

    Like

  7. I am never one for failing to admit when I was wrong. I thought this new pollster was going to gaslight the Texas senate race. Still not a lead for Paxton, but certainly a path for him to win, given the context:

    Overton Insights poll | 8/24-8/26 LV US Senate Texas 2026

    🟦James Talarico 44.0%
    🟥Ken Paxton 43.4%

    ——

    Leaners pushed

    🟥Ken Paxton 50.0%
    🟦James Talarico 50.0%

    Liked by 1 person

  8. GOVERNOR

    🟥 Abbott (i): 46.9%
    🟦 Hinojosa: 45.8%

    With leans

    🟥 Abbott (i): 51.2%
    🟦 Hinojosa: 48.8%

    Like

  9. And I greatly doubt that Abbott is only barely ahead.

    Like

  10. The freepassers assured us that talrico was well ahead.

    Like

  11. who? I don’t recall anyone saying that Talarico was well ahead.

    Like

  12. DW – Tina just lies. It is sad to see.

    Like

  13. Baris is polling Texas as we speak. His last poll two months ago had Paxton up 2. I live in a solid red area. I’ve seen four Talarico yard signs. Nothing for Paxton as of now. Not surprising to me given that Paxton has no campaign. Guess he just doesn’t have $$. Maybe Musk will give him some money. Establishment Republicans don’t appear to give a shit.

    Like

  14. I cannot speak for anyone else, but my sense of the race is that Paxton is probably somewhere between tied and ahead a couple of points. Cornyn would have been ahead by more.

    Like

  15. Phil,

    Someone posted here yesterday that the spending floodgates for Paxton were about to open. We will see.

    Like

  16. I expect some money will flow mainly from PACs. Thune and the Republican establishment won’t be any help. They don’t care.

    Like

  17. Trump is sitting on 400 million that he is yet to commit any of it. If he doesn’t then it’s partially on him and he can deal with a Senate controlled by radical socialists. His choice.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. But Hormuzzle is closed and Iran is winning.

    Like

  19. Headline:

    National Journal/The Hill: California Governor Gavin Newsom’s southern tour will avoid Georgia and Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA).

    I thought that Ossoff was a lock to win, and is able to say or do whatever he wants without worrying about any risks?

    Like

  20. That $400M is Trump’s bank account to pay legal bills and such. Yes, he can use some of it to help candidates, but don’t expect a major expenditure. He doesn’t care about the GOP, per se, he just needs it to survive to make his last two years tolerable.

    Like

  21. Funny, the Cultists told us Trump was a Republican and a conservative.

    Must have been a typo.

    Like

  22. The freepassers assured us that talrico was well ahead”

    Them imaginary freepassers …. the things they come up with.

    Like

  23. 22 comments and nobody noticed that there was a veiled reference to Walt in today’s cartoon?

    Like

  24. The polls show Paxton either tied or slightly behind.

    The Cultists might think that is fantastic, but they have yet to explain why Paxton is not ahead by at least 10 in ruby red Texas against a certified loco weirdo communist like Talarico.

    And don’t give me the “he has more money” BS, a communist should not be able to be competitive in TX even if he had a 10-1 money advantage.

    Paxton is struggling because he is a weak candidate, too much baggage, too unpopular with Indies and a big chunk of Rs. THAT is the problem.

    The sooner he and his supporters realize that the better they will be prepared to address it.

    The “hey Texas is red, Talarico is a communist, we will win” strategy is not paying off.

    Like

  25. I didn’t think it was veiled….

    Like

  26. Trump might not be a conservative, but he should worry about the Senate.

    Without the senate, he is a complete lame duck.

    He can rename Palm Beach Trump Beach but he won’t get any judges confirmed and if something happens to a SCOTUS judge he won’t get his nominee through.

    The Dems will send bill after bill which he will veto, but his whole agenda will be stopped as well as he will have to waste a lot of time defending against one investigation after another.

    Like

  27. US Senate New Mexico 2026

    🟦Ben Ray Luján 53% (incumbent)🟥Larry Marker 38%

    *********

    If this Larry “MAGIC” Marker?

    Like

  28. “Without the senate Trump is a lame duck”.

    Exactly

    Like

  29. FL-13 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem)Full field

    🟦 Leela “SHADZA” Gray: 44%

    🟥 Anna Paulina Luna (i): 43%

    🟨 Tony D’Arrigo: 7%

    ******

    “SHADZA” Grey

    Like

  30. DW,

    Your cartoon today…priceless.

    You have made Cash Cow AND Walt both famous.

    I am walking a little taller this morning…

    (Disclaimer: I stole the quotes you used in your cartoon from Facebook. Not my own original funny things…)

    Liked by 1 person

  31. 🟦Ben “GAY” Ray Luján 53% (incumbent)

    (“not that there is anything wrong with that”…) Seinfeld, 2003 episode whatever

    Like

  32. Sleepy Eye, MN was mentioned a few times in the Little House on the Prairie TV show.

    Like

  33. You mean they overturned a foreign born, Marxist judge again?

    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2095158333049122941

    Like

  34. DW,

    Thank you.

    I would have responded earlier today but I did not get out if bed until 10 a.m.

    I usually do not go to bed until 1 a.m….pretty faithful to that schedule. I am always alert to know if earthquakes, wars, plagues, etc break oit in the middle of rhe night and want to be Paul Revere to warn the rest of the country of the impending doom.

    I GO to bed when I am real tired hoping it will help me go to sleep quickly

    But it often, like last night, does not work. I lay there for an hour or two. Mind racing about dodechahedrons, the problems with the country, my chore list for the next day…

    I FINALLY drift off to a light and fitful sleep. Then later, I go into deepand rejuvenating sleep after 6 or 7 a.m. My body wants to extend that deep sleep as long as possible, even though normal people are up and at em much earlier the next morning.

    Like

  35. Jason – Don’t go to law school. Tina won’t let you be a judge.

    Like

  36. The clip shared above at 10:56 is a comedian telling about turning on Looney Tunes foe his kids, and how “the cartoon TV show has not aged well.”

    Stars are “Porkey” pig. Who has a speech impediment. (Shoild we really be calling people disparaging names…)

    ,,,and a Mexican mouse…and a skunk, who likes to hold women against their will…

    …and a coyote who is always trying to kill this bird…

    and a cat who is always trying to kill this OTHER bird….

    and both the cat and Tweety have speech impediments..

    …and Elmer Fudd who also had a speech impediment…and who is always trying to kill this rabbit

    Like

  37. …and a duck with an ego larger than Texas.

    But they were an equal opportunity stereotype cartoon, including TWO characters who epitomize the angry white man, Yosemite Sam and Foghorn Leghorn.

    Liked by 1 person

  38. And a cross-dressing, psycopathic rabbit with violent tendencies. But I’ve been saying this for thirty years, she’s late to the party.

    Liked by 1 person

  39. Sabato needs to pull up his toupee and take a look around at the real world as he continues to have NH Senate as a Lean D when the UNH just polled a massive sample of 1878 LV and found Sununu up 2. The race is a tossup.

    Like

  40. DW, as Curious George would scream, “THE FUNDAMENTALS!!!”

    Like

  41. Exactly. The fundamentals say that Sununu is a known brand name in New Hampshire, the Dem opponent is a bit shaky, and its an open seat.The race is a tossup.

    Like

  42. Ah yes. The always endearing, charming and of course loveable Daffy Duck.

    Still remember saying….”Mine, mine, mine!”

    Or mouthing out with a lisp “You desthpicable!”

    Liked by 1 person

  43. Iran is going to make Hormuz irrelevant.

    Oh well….

    AL-QARYATAYN, Syria – Day and night, 5,000 hulking trucks carrying oil from the Persian Gulf rumble across this stretch of barren desert as if in a caravan snaking its way toward the Mediterranean Sea.

    The trucks began shuttling between the refineries of southern Iraq and the Syrian port of Baniyas in April, initially as an experiment by Iraqi oil exporters seeking to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz after cargo traffic in the waterway was stopped by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.”

    Like

  44. The best Daffy line was when he was challenging a giant to a fight and crawled up his body to grab his collar to warn him, “You might be big, but I AM SMALL!”

    Like

  45. …and a duck with an ego larger than Texas.”

    Remember both Wes and I voted for that duck for President in 2016.

    Well, Wes did, I backed off at the last moment because it was a pain to write it in.

    It was the thought that counted.

    Like

  46. New generic ballot poll from Harvard-Harris

    Democrats 49, Republicans 51

    STOP…look at that number once more.

    Liked by 1 person

  47. DW, Dems should be blowing the doors off this election; that they are not (at least as of yet) is an indictment of their party, candidates, and platform.

    Liked by 1 person

  48. ”You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!”

    Like

  49. The DSA has taken over the Democratic Party, and its going to hurt their chances.

    Like

  50. Maybe the argument goes like this, hey independents, if the Dems cannot even stop commies from taking over their party, what does that say about their ability to govern at all?

    Like

  51. Like

  52. The Rs now have the lead in the generic for the first time. Remember, the ds were falling.

    What will the freepassers do now? Epplestein?

    Like

  53. already broke the news here TIna

    Like

  54. I wonder if Tina checks the closets and under her bed for free passers before she goes to sleep

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  55. No fair, dw.

    Like

  56. Like

  57. Polymarket has

    Dem Sweep 51%

    R Sweep 11%

    Dem House R Senate 36%

    Those numbers are close enough to indicate no one really knows.

    Like

  58. I still lean to a narrow Dem House simply because it takes so small a shift to flip the chamber. I can’t see a Dem Senate unless the floor really falls through, the median state is just too Red, and candidate quality matters.

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  59. dont forget GF that the GOP picked up several with the redistricting war

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  60. I wonder if Tina checks the closets and under her bed for free passers before she goes to sleep”

    I hope she doesn’t tell little kids ” be good or the freepassers will get you”!

    Like

  61.  I can’t see a Dem Senate unless the floor really falls through, the median state is just too Red,”

    So which of these do you think Rs will lose. AK, TX, OH, ME, NC

    Do you think Rs could win MI or NH or GA?

    Win ONE of those and the GOP could lose ALL the at risk seats and have 50 seats.

    Like

  62. Here we go. Suicide by truck is the fault of ICE. And there are “supporters”.

    SPRINGFIELD, OH – Family members and supporters of a Haitian man fatally hit by a truck said he was recently feeling humiliated by bullying over an ankle monitor he was forced to wear.

    “Pierre died as a result of policy,” said Carl Ruby, pastor of a Springfield church and a leading advocate for the 12,000 to 15,000 Haitians residing in Clark County, Ohio. “It’s our immigration policy that took his life.”

    Pierre Damas Bel, 20, died around 8:45 a.m. Aug. 31 on Interstate 70 in Clark County, the Ohio State Highway Patrol said. Bel left his Toyota on the right shoulder of the interstate and entered its westbound lanes before being struck by a semi-trailer truck, the highway patrol reported. He died at the scene.”

    Like

  63. Homer back in the anchor desk tomorrow morning at 8

    Like

  64. DW, I am concerned that the five presumed TX pickups will not fully materlize, wheras CA will prpbably deliver four of the five seats to the Dems (Valadao is a possible survivor). Dems, or, rather, RINOs, courtmandered the Dems a seat in UT, but I guess we will get one back in LA. So, we’re counting on MO and AL, along with FL, to balance out most of CA (and I think we will only get two or three out of the four planned in FL, Moskowitz strikes the right tone for his seat). Call me a pessimist, but even in a break-even environment, the Dems take the House, just; I am not counting on NC-1, and Max Miller has done his best to throw away a Red seat in OH-7 (I doubt that his opponent’s youthful indiscretions are enough to keep that seat in our hands). Maybe LePage wins in ME and makes the math more interesting.

    Jason, of the seats you mentioned, MI is my pick, though I also have some hope for NH based on a quality recruit with a known record and a popular family name, along with a likely solid win by Gov. Ayotte. Down in GA, we ended up with a dud of a nominee who can;t seem to gain traction against a buffoonish empty suit of an accidental Millenial Senator (whose election I blame entirely on Trump and his antics; at least Perdue can be chalked up to the silly Libertarian holding him just under 50% and forcing that stupid runoff, a relic of Jim Crow days that the erstwhile dominant GOP should long ago have gotten rid of). I am bullish on OH, cautiously optimistic in ME, resigned to lose NC (though more narrowly than pundits think), and holding my breath on AK, but also hopefuly that a GE electorate will draw out more Republicans than the silly RCV primary did.

    Liked by 1 person

  65. I realize that I forgot TX; I think it stays Red, though too uncomfortably close. Paxton is a true PoS of a human being, I just have to hope that enough Texans accept him as “our SoB” and rejevt the fruitiness of his ridiculous opponent.

    Like

  66. Cost to annually register a motor vehicle in select states:

    PA $48. PLUS title fee of $72

    Electric cars surcharge of $250 plus annual safety inspections.

    ********

    DE $45. Plus title fee of $15

    Plus electric vehicles pay $150.

    ********

    MD $120.50.(cars under 3500 lbs)

    $191.50 for heavier vehicles.

    PLUS TITLE FEE OF $200

    Plus for Electric vehicles a biennial $250 biennial surcharge, a 6.5% vehicle excise tax, and $30 emission testing in select counties. But MD does not charge an annual property tax on vehicles.

    ******

    VA $30.75 for any vehicle under 4000 pounds; PLUS $15 title fee

    electric vehicles have a mandatory safety inspection of about $120. Electric vehicles also pay another $135 extra hightway use fee

    *******

    WV $51.50. Plus title fee

    Electric vehicles pay $251,50 and hybrids cost $151.50. Plus required safety inspection every 2 years. PLUS you pay an annual personal property tax.

    Like

  67. Phome froze…

    WV title fee is $15.

    *********

    Damn, MD has gone crazy on car registration and titling fees.

    MD even offers a payment plan to pay annual registration fee.

    Estimstes are 77,000 Marylanders are registering their vehicles illegally in other states.

    ********

    BUT, in MD you do NOT pay annual property tax on your vehicles

    In WV, you DO PAY annual property tax on cars, but NOW you can get the full property tax you pay annually to THE COUNTY reimbursed by the STATE when you file your state income taxes.

    Like

  68. ”Elon Musk’s America PAC is now SPENDING MONEY on Trump-backed Mike Rogers in Michigan, Ken Paxton in Texas, and other crucial Senate and House races — new filing.

    The first drop is $800K, but expect a lot more. Senate races in Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Alaska are also being backed on the MAGA/GOP side by Elon and America PAC”

    Like

  69. What a waste Musk has to spend money in TX.

    I guess when you have a really crappy candidate, it can’t be helped, but this money should have been spent in other races.

    Cornyn would not have needed a red cent from Musk.

    Like

  70. $292 in CA for a 2016 Honda Odyssey (family car and the wife’s daily driver)

    $242 for a 1972 Mercedes 220D (my daily)

    $229 for a 1966 Ford F-250 (which I rarely drive, I got it as a work truck for the property)

    Like

  71. SALES TAX, TITLE FEE & ANNUAL REGISTRATION COST FOR A CAR / TRUCK PURCHASED IN STATES IN MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    ……SALES….REGISTRATION ….TITLE

    ……..TAX………..FEE………………….FEE

    DE 5.25%………$55…………………$15

    PA. 6%………….$48…………………$72

    MD. 6.5%……..$120.50**……….$200

    >……..**but if 4000lbs+

    ………….. then $191.50

    VA. 4.15%…….$30.75…………….$15

    in VA you also pay annual property tax on vehicles

    WV. 6%…………$51.50…………….$15

    in WV you also pay property tax TO COUNTY but are reimbursed BY STATE when you file WV income tax if you paid county on time

    Like

  72. Vehicle registration in CA is over the top, as is everything else. We have 4 vehicles – 3 are 20+ years old – and every registration is between $200-$300. They comprise a 1990 VW van; 2005 mini S John Cooperworks; 2006 X3 BMW. Our newest is 2015 X3 BMW.

    Liked by 1 person

  73. Harry - Radiant Cheesecake Avatar
    Harry – Radiant Cheesecake

    I went to a Ken Paxton rally yesterday. It was in a Baptist church outside the city. As a Catholic, I was impressed with the stadium-style cushion seats. No hard pews or kneelers to be seen.

    They provided tacos outside the event. I got what was said to be barbacoa. It was not barbacoa. As a Texan of pallor, I know barbacoa. This was not barbacoa. It was not good not-barbacoa either.

    Inside there was a soundtrack of classic rock songs playing, including “YMCA”. When “Fortunate Son” started, it was skipped. I guess the hosts were worried about any draft dodger references. The sound booth would have made Billy Bob’s envious.

    When the program began right on time at 7:30, the Baptist minister introduced himself and said that “YMCA” is not in their hymnal. He was a good speaker. He got some “Amens”. He talked about Christ and that no one is perfect (including the candidate by implication). The crowd was receptive to forgive past errors.

    Next came a parade of local elected officials. All were good speakers. Each explained the stakes and that Paxton was so much better than Talarico.

    Finally came the candidate. Paxton is a terrible speaker. Boring. Quiet. He had good content. But, so boring. If he were just the written word, he’d be fine. But, that is not how politics works. As a lawyer and someone elected to as many offices as he has been, I would have hoped for more. I knew this was who was was before I got there. The program ended around 8:20.

    It turns out that he sued the Biden administration 107 times and won 80% of the time. I say he. I should say, his office. He did not mention the most important thing that he did, though.

    The most important thing that Paxton did as Attorney General of Texas was to issue opinions that private schools could open during the Covid pandemic. And, that the public health authorities could not keep the public schools closed.

    These letters were a big deal when they came out six years ago. He made our children’s lives a little more normal. Those two letters made a bigger difference than any suit over whatnot.

    No one is going over the top for Ken Paxton. However, many in this crowd would do so to beat Talarico.

    When the speech ended, people could line up to get their photos with the candidate. It was a pretty long line. I didn’t wait.

    As I left, volunteers were giving out yard signs. Box after box was opened to satisfy the demand.

    Hopefully, Paxton can inspire enough people to vote for him, or at least not vote for Talarico.

    Liked by 1 person

  74. For DECADES in WV, It USED TO BE that if you moved here, you had to pay a 5% value of the purchase price if your car to get it registered in WV. Even it you just bought the car a few months ago in MD, VA, NC 6 or 8 months ago where you were living then. And then, had to PAY that big sum to WV because you moved here.

    Butt I. The last few years, WV saw the light and got rid of that law.

    ●●●●●

    First time registration and titling fees

    “If you just bought the vehicle or recently moved to the state, you must pay additional one-time processing fees to the West Virginia Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV):

    ▪︎Title Certificate Fee: $15.00Lien ▪︎Recording Fee: $10.00 (only applies if you have a car loanTitle

    ▪︎▪︎▪︎Privilege Tax: A 6% sales tax based on the vehicle’s purchase price. ■■■Note: If you are a new resident moving into the state with a vehicle already registered in your name, you are exempt from this 6% tax.”

    Like

  75. RIP, Gloria Steinem.

    Like

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