The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

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2026 House Forecast

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Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

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A Pile of Tuesday Polls

DW

Iowa statewide races 2026

US Senate
🟥Ashley Hinson 50%
🟦Josh Turek 48%
——
Iowa Governor
🟦Rob Sand 51%
🟥Zach Lahn 46%

Wedgewood poll | 8/27-8/29 LV

AK-1

🟥Begich 51%
🟦Hill 39%
🟦Hafner 5%

8/28/2026- 1,872 LV ±3%
Alaska Survey Research

AZ-2

🟥Eli Crane 53%
🟦Jonathan Nez 42%

Peak Insights 8/17-20; 400 LV

MI-10

🟥Mike Bouchard Jr 45%
🟦Christina Hines 45%

GSG-D poll | 8/10-8/13 LV
(Poll sponsored by Democratic group House Majority PAC)

This is a District I had given up on, and the Dem polling firm doing work for a Dem PAC could only get a tie.

PA-1

🟥Brian Fitzpatrick 49% (incumbent)
🟦Bob Harvie 48%

GQR-D poll | 8/19-8/23 LV
(Poll sponsored by Democratic group House Majority PAC)

TN-5

🟥Charles Hatcher 48%
🟦Chaz Molder 40%

Impact Research poll | 8/19-8/24 LV (Chaz Molder internal)

NEW MEXICO – Governor

🟦 Deb Haaland: 49%
🟥 Gregg Hull: 43%

Research and Polling | 8/21-28 | 516 LV

65 responses to “A Pile of Tuesday Polls”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Why is Lupi Llama relegated to always reporting from outside? Xenophobia against Peruvians? Speciesism against camelids?

    Like

  3. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    My total cholesterol is 121. GFYs

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    A further comment on that MI-10 poll. That is exactly the sort of district that should be an auto-flip if there was a blue wave coming. But it had the same result as VA-2 several weeks back, where both districts were polled by a Dem polling firm for a Dem PAC and could only show a tie.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Well, the jury in the Clancy case has been sent back in to continue deliberations after telling the judge that they cannot reach a unanimous decision. If they come back out again and repeat the same to the judge it looks like a hung jury.

    And just released-the jury sent the court another question. Don’t know what it is right now.

    Like

  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I guess they are hung between giving her a complete free pass or just sending her for a short country club stint.

    Like

  7. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    My total cholesterol is 121. GFYs.

    Damm, that is just my BAD cholesterol.

    GFYs.

    Like

  8. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Kentucky fair grand champion ham bought for $10MM.

    https://www.aol.com/articles/16-pound-prized-ham-sold-213701000.html

    Like

  9. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    “Supreme Court 5-4 issues a ruling that “your white women feelings” do not qualify as standing to sue Trump about the White House ball room John Roberts joins the dissent with the 3 looney tunes”

    I think Roberts had a momentary psychotic breakdown, they are very common these days.

    Give him a break.

    Like

  10. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Kentucky fair grand champion ham bought for $10MM.”

    Excuse the mixed metaphor (?) but that IS bringing home the bacon.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    This far left apparatchik hack that was “aesthetically injured” by the ballroom reminds me of people who are offended by the national anthem or the US flag.

    Will Roberts give one of them “standing” to try to cancel the US flag?

    Like

  12. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I should have said that is just 2/3rds of my bad cholesterol.

    GFYs.

    Like

  13. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Why is Lupi Llama relegated to always reporting from outside? Xenophobia against Peruvians? Speciesism against camelids?”

    Thanks Bitter for standing up for Lupi Llama.

    I would have complained too but DW could have said I lacked standing.

    But an upstanding barrister like yourself as well as HHR Phoenix founding father , King and owner, certainly has standing.

    Like

  14. DW Avatar
    DW

    I am told that when she tried to stick her nose in the Democratic Party big tent, the stench was too much, even for a llama.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Bitter you must be taking statins to reach that cholesterol number. Your number is closing in on being too low – 116 hypocholesterolemia.

    Like

  16. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    ”A Bank of America executive was killed during a stabbing in Times Square in New York City on Monday.

    Erin Piacenti, 32, of Chester, New Jersey, was fatally stabbed by a female assailant on Monday afternoon.”

    Third world behavior is everywhere. What is shocking has become everyday happenstances.

    Like

  17. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Thank, Jan. I do take medication. My endocrinologist is hyper-vigilant because I am diabetic.

    I noted my sodium level is just under the normal range. Not sure how that is possible when salt is one of my top 3 food groups.

    Like

  18. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Jurors now stand in solidarity with murderers. It’s where we are.

    “As has been widely reported, at least three female jurors showed up to the courtroom wearing pink, which has been seized on by Clancy’s supporters as a sign of “solidarity” with her purported mental illness.”

    No don’t ask me why someone who cruelly strangled her 3 little children has “supporters”.

    Like

  19. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I wonder the same thing. My main food groups, bacon, ham, scrapple, corned beef, pastrami, martini olives, pickles, etc. are laden with salt. Yet my sodium level is normal and BP high normal.

    But according to AI:

    Normal blood tests: For healthy people, routine blood tests show normal sodium levels even with a high-salt diet, because the regulatory system works fast.”

    I guess I am healthy.

    Like

  20. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I have been on statins for years my cholesterol has never dropped below 200.

    I attribute it to genetics.

    Like

  21. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am told that when she tried to stick her nose in the Democratic Party big tent, the stench was too much, even for a llama”

    What does “even for a llama” mean? Sounds racist ( I don’t know what the word for anti-llama is, so used racist).

    Like

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    llamas often have to hang out with barnyard animals and thereby get close to foul smells. What came from inside the Dem Big Tent was even worse than that.

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    On the other hand, I hardly eat any sugar and my blood sugar has been above normal for 20 years.

    AI is not very helpful on this one:

    “Alcohol can both raise and lower blood sugar, depending on what and how much you drink”

    Like

  24. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    llamas often have to hang out with barnyard animals”

    Lupita does not hang out with barnyard animals. She looks with haughty disdain at the Amish dairy cows and would never be caught in a barn with one.

    Like

  25. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    My wife vetoed the idea of having some goats to keep Lupita company.

    She said the goats would absolutely destroy the vegetable garden and eat all the vegetables.

    Yes, I held my tongue and instead dutifully pretended to be horrified at such an outcome.

    Like

  26. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The Bank of America VP was not targeted, just a random victim.

    A few hundred thousand people walking the streets of Manhattan at any given time, but your are the one stabbed to death.

    When its your time to go….

    Like

  27. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Bitter, I’m not particularly fond of statins because of side effects dealing with muscle atrophy. I also think they are way over-prescribed. However, they do lower high cholesterol levels. My husband is on a very low dose, one that I monitor thru blood tests. When his cholesterol reached 160 I asked that his prescription dosage be lowered, which it was. Basically, most medical references say that anything under 200 is fine.

    Like

  28. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    If this is true it’s a good trend:

    ”UPDATE: A poll has just found that Republican voter enthusiasm has SURGED +15 POINTS for the 2026 midterms since August 2025 — Echelon GOP enthusiasm is now at 63%, Dems are at 67%. The gap is NARROWING”

    Like

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    that’s fine jan, but we also need independents to start being independent again, instead of eager to vote themselves right into communism.

    Like

  30. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    DW, very true. I personally don’t get how so many voters seem to be wearing blinders, regarding how the Dems seem to be orchestrating a socialist/communist take-over of this country. For instance in Michigan’s senate race one of the latest polls has Roger’s down by 5 points from his openly anti-American opponent! It’s all crazy…..

    Like

  31. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I am researching the Roman dodecahedrons….trying to find out their purpose…

    Like

  32. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I do not think it was Roman.

    The 135 dodecahedrons were only found in frontier lands of n and nw European part of Roman empire. Druid or Celtic made. Connected to the occult, astrology…

    Like

  33. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Or possibly for knitting gloves or socks.

    Like

  34. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    “Alcohol can both raise and lower your blood sugar”

    Try Bud Light Next….0 carbs, 0 sugar, 80 calories(12 oz.)

    My favorite is Bud Light Platinum…1 gram of sugar and just 3 grams of carbs while a little more ABV (6%)

    Like

  35. GF Avatar
    GF

    ”Try Bud Light…”

    Or just skip the Tranny p*sswater and order a double rye Old Fashioned, sugar be damned!

    (disclaimer; I’m at the delta lounge at LAX getting trashed before my flight to New Orleans.)

    Like

  36. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Actually, it’s called Bud Light Next. And Dylan Mulvaney is not involved. Probably doesn’t do the job for people that want to get smashed.

    Like

  37. GF Avatar
    GF

    ”Probably doesn’t do the job for people that want to get smashed.”

    Been trying that for years, being a sailor upped me tolerance where it is now too expensive to get smashed.

    As for the Mulvaney angle, on the one hand, I don’t necessarily care, but on the other, like Bitter, there is no forgiveness or absolution for past sins, I will hold it against the company even though I don’t consume their products.

    Like

  38. GF Avatar
    GF

    ”upped me tolerance”

    Apparently, I served in the Irish navy

    Like

  39. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Fat Fountleroy has no trouble with the oil controlled by the ccp

    @JonahDispatch

    ·

    22h

    I’m genuinely stunned by the number of people I normally respect and mostly agree with who are untroubled or even celebratory of Trump’s imperialist “deal” with Venezuela.

    Like

  40. DW Avatar
    DW

    umm….the Venezuelans are celebrating the deal.

    Like

  41. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Grok AI says the dodecahedron was a surveying device to determine distance.

    Like

  42. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Yeah, I am with GF on Bud Light.

    I was not a fan to start, but the Mulvaney thing was the kiss of death.

    I would rather drink water than a Bud Light.

    Like

  43. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    “Tranny p*sswater “

    LOL

    Like

  44. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I never acquired a taste for light beer, pun intended.

    I think light beer is just watered down regular beer, so why would you want to drink watered down beer.

    I like heavy, bitter, and hoppy beers like IPAs (but nothing fruity or weird) and hazy full bodied wheat beers.

    I also like the Belgian Duvel type pale ales but they are high alcohol (like 8%) so its for special occasions only.

    Like

  45. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Apparently, I served in the Irish navy”

    No grog in the Irish navy, alas.

    Like

  46. Big Joe, A-Hole Avatar
    Big Joe, A-Hole

    Hello HHR

    Missed you, seems not much has changed since I was last here around the March Madness time. Interest rates still high. MId-term wave election on schedule. Markets at near all time highs.

    BUT…. Knicks are the champs. Let’s F’in go.

    Big Joe, A-Hole

    Like

  47. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Hey Big Joe A-hole.

    Good to see you.

    Like

  48. Big Joe, A-Hole Avatar
    Big Joe, A-Hole

    You too Jason.

    Ignore cholesterol numbers, they are outdated. You do need to know your HBA1C, LPa, and APOb though.

    Big Joe, A-Hole

    Like

  49. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Yah think.

    Like

  50. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Big Joe – GFY. Good to see you.

    Like

  51. Big Joe, A-Hole Avatar
    Big Joe, A-Hole

    GFY BL – Good to see you too. Thanks for keeping this HHR ship sailing! (And Daryl too!)

    Big Joe, A-Hole

    Like

  52. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    DW has been the driving force at HHR with cartoons and polls.

    Like

  53. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  54. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Just heard from Sean Hannity on Fox, whom seems with his guests, of a favorable conviction, has now said that he believes that both first and second degree murders for Lindsay Clancy are off the board.

    Like

  55. GF Avatar
    GF

    Best we can hope for is a hung jury so that a more sane group of people (and perhaps fewer women) get a second crack at that murderous b*tch.

    Like

  56. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Ssq texted me.

    She says that she heard somewhere that if the jury cannot all agree, then they take the jury out and hang them….all 12…

    Like

  57. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I search to see if they are finding any survivors in Nepal flood… Apparently the 4-5,000 missing must all be dead.

    Like

  58. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Ireland has a small Navy used primarily for coastal patrols and defense (even though nobody would waste time attacking it). A tour guide said the joke is that Ireland is the only country where the Navy goes home every day for lunch.

    Like

  59. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I search to see if they are finding any survivors in Nepal flood”

    They found a 4 year old girl buried to her neck in the mud still alive. Only rescue I have read about.

    Like

  60. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Best we can hope for is a hung jury so that a more sane group of people (and perhaps fewer women) get a second crack at that murderous b*tch.”

    Won’t happen in MA?

    By then her legion of “supporters” will be even larger.

    Like

  61. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Big Joe is the proudest A-hole we have.

    Like

  62. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Yeah, Hannity hasn’t fallen for the insanity BS and hasn’t forgotten the children.

    But a new trial, even with fewer women, will not get a conviction because you have a woke judge, a woke jury pool, and a woke media exerting enormous pressure to give this murderer a free pass.

    Like

  63. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    has now said that he believes that both first and second degree murders for Lindsay Clancy are off the board.”

    Heh, I have believed that from the beginning.

    Like

  64. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Pass the popcorn…and screw the GOP deadenders

    Democrats shocked after 2 members cross aisle to help Republicans

    Speaker Mike Johnson nearly lost control of the House floor — again — because of a group of disgruntled conservatives.

    Then a pair of Democrats stepped in to help.

    Two centrist Democrats, Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, took the unusual step Tuesday of rescuing GOP leaders’ own agenda in the face of a conservative rebellion.

    Those Democrats backed a key GOP procedural vote that needed to succeed for Republicans to later bring several bills to the floor.

    The reason? It helped pave the way for a priority bill for Golden supporting lobstermen, according to two people familiar with the discussion. The bill already has White House support, and Golden and others hope it can become law this year.

    But their vote also allowed Johnson to proceed with messaging votes that Democrats oppose, including a resolution to condemn socialism that Republicans hope to use against Democrats on the campaign trail.

    The defection of those two Democrats quickly enraged members of their own party — including some party leaders, who were shocked by the two members’ votes, several people told CNN.

    Asked whether he’s disappointed in those members, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters: “The two Democrats who voted for the rule did not give any member of House Democratic leadership a heads-up, and as a result, blindsided the entire caucus and created a significant breach of trust.

    Jeffries said it’s “under discussion” whether the two lawmakers will face repercussions.”

    Like

  65. DW Avatar
    DW

    sounds like Jeffries is trying to get back in the big tent… new thread

    Like

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