New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

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University of Texas Poll

Finds a lot of undecided in the US Senate race

University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll | 8/5-8/13 RV

US Senate Texas 2026

US Senate
🟦James Talarico 42%
🟥Ken Paxton 39%
🟨Ted Brown 3%
——
Texas Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 45% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 40%
🟨Pat Dixon 3%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (TX)
🟥Republican 48%
🟦Democratic 44%
——
Texas Lt. Governor
🟥Dan Patrick 42% (incumbent)
🟦Vikki Goodwin 35%
🟨Anthony Cristo 4%

NYT/Philly Inquirer/Siena poll | 8/17-8/21

(Likely voters)
Pennsylvania Governor 2026
🟦Josh Shapiro 55% (incumbent)
🟥Stacy Garrity 39%

Generic congressional ballot 2026 (PA)
🟦Democratic 51%
🟥Republican 44%

90 responses to “University of Texas Poll”

  1. and for those keeping score at home, the University of Texas had a 7.8 point skew to Harris in Texas in 2024. And this is a REGISTERED voter poll where undecideds were not pushed at all.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Generic congressional ballot 2026 (RV)

    🟦Democratic 46% (no change)
    🟥Republican 40% (+1)

    Economist/YouGov poll | 8/21-8/24

    Like

  3. Like

  4. I don’t think a news anchor has shown that much emotion since Walter Cronkite announced the death of JFK.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Politico: Byron Donalds picks Florida legislator Bryan Ávila as running mate, leaning into anti-communist message Ávila, from heavily Cuban-populated Hialeah, is a dean of a criminal justice college and Florida Army National Guard captain.

    Excellent. The GOP’s primary hope this fall is to nationalize the option as voting for communism or common sense.

    Like

  6. Don’t forget that Cash Cow is still going through post-partum depression after giving birth to a new calf several months ago. HHR News is very compassionate and understanding and is not upset that she left the anchor desk during a broadcast.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. BDPC-D poll | 8/12-8/13 RV US House 2026

    Louisiana’s 6th congressional district (top two advance)

    🟦Chauna Banks 19%
    🟦Patrick Forbes 8%

    Democrat total 27%

    🟥Rick Edmonds 16%
    🟥Blake Miguez 9%
    🟥Larry Davis 6%

    GOP total: 31%

    42% Undecided? Garbage poll.

    Like

  8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Dahmer

    Insane?”

    Zzzzz…..

    Jeffrey Dahmer was certainly not insane, as the jury correctly understood by the evidence provided.

    “A Milwaukee jury legally found Jeffrey Dahmer sane in February 1992, rejecting his defense team’s plea of not guilty by reason of insanity.

    The Trial and Legal Sanity

    • The Plea: Dahmer pleaded guilty to 15 murders in Wisconsin (and later one in Ohio) but argued he was insane when he committed them due to overwhelming psychological compulsions.
    • The Legal Standard: Under Wisconsin law, the jury had to decide if Dahmer suffered from a mental disease and whether that disease left him unable to understand the wrongfulness of his actions or unable to conform his behavior to the law.
    • The Verdict: Ten of the twelve jurors concluded he was legally sane, finding that his actions showed clear planning, premeditation, and an awareness that his crimes were wrong. Most users on Reddit agree that his careful concealment of evidence and deliberate targeting of victims proved he met the legal definition of sanity rather than insanity.

    Evidence Against the Insanity Defense

    • Premeditation: Prosecutors showed that Dahmer carefully planned his murders, lured victims, hid bodies, and destroyed evidence.
    • Awareness of Guilt: Experts testified that Dahmer knew his actions were illegal and wrong, which disqualified him from an insanity ruling despite his severe psychological disorders and paraphilias.
    • The Sentence: Because he was deemed sane, the jury convicted him, and he received multiple consecutive life prison terms instead of being sent to a psychiatric facility.

    Of course, that was 1992 before the era of judicial wokeness.

    Today, the “OMG, he ate his victims, he has to be crazy”, and “society should have helped him, it’s society’s fault” BS would probably prevail.

    Like

  9. If Jeffrey Dahmer went to trial today he would get the “Clancy Treatment”.

    His heinous crimes would be ignored, his victims forgotten and HE would be the victim.

    There would be lots of blame to be spread around. His parents, his boss, evil uncaring capitalist society, drugs, alcohol, medication, you name it.

    There would be only one person not responsible: Jeffrey Dahmer, society’s victim.

    Like

  10. giving birth to a new calf several months ago.”

    Does Walt know who got into Cash Cow’s pants?

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Of course, that was 1992 before the era of judicial wokeness.

    The M’Naughton defense goes back almost 2 centuries. Does Jason think ANY person who commits a crime was insane when they did it?

    Like

  12. Stabbing your mother in the face with 4 knives and a cheese grater is not “normal”, according to Bitter’s definition of what kind of murder should get a free pass or not.

    So send her to a country cl… huh, psychiatric facility for a few years and call it a day.

    Like

  13. I don’t even know if we have a cheese grater. I do support the right to own cheese graters. Both can be true.

    Like

  14. GrayHouse poll | 8/9-8/11

    Arizona Governor 2026

    🟦Katie Hobbs 49% (incumbent)
    🟥Andy Biggs 45%

    Like

  15. The M’Naughton defense goes back almost 2 centuries”

    Yes, and it had clear standards as to what constitutes insanity.

    Number one, you actually have to be insane. It is not enough to have your friends, neighbors, hired “experts” and lawyers claim you are insane.

    The 1992 Dahmer jury understood that. I doubt the Clancy jury will.

    But today, there is tremendous pressure against the evil policy of “incarceration” and a complete rejection of the concept of personal responsibility.

    Today, criminals are not criminals, they are victims. They are victims of poverty, broken homes, abuse, bullying, addiction, etc. The fact the vast majority of people with these issues in their lives don’t turn out to be criminals is never considered.

    Like

  16. Does Jason think ANY person who commits a crime was insane when they did it?”

    Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    But they were insane BEFORE they committed the crime, not after.

    Like

  17. Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    Baby steps.

    Like

  18. Hands down Carlson.

    Not sure Giuliani really “fell”. He went from being an establishment R to a hard core cultist, but that is not “falling” to me. His political instinct to support Trump was smart, but hard to understand why he was compelled to become Trump’s attack dog.

    I think the judgment against him in GA was ridiculous, so his “financial falling” in my view was unjust and probably the reason for some of Giuliani’s, hmm, mental “fall”.

    Carlson, on the other hand, went from being a mainstream conservative to Bunu incarnate.

    THAT is falling.

    Like

  19. Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    Baby steps.”

    Why not put the entire quote instead of cherry picking.

    “Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    But they were insane BEFORE they committed the crime, not after.”

    Like

  20. Taking half the quote without including the caveat is intellectual dishonesty.

    Like

  21. intellectual dishonesty

    Too many examples of Jason’s intellectual dishonesty but don’t want to start down that road. Instead, I will just say GFY.

    Like

  22. the generic ballot in ARIZONA according to that same poll:

    Generic congressional ballot 2026 (AZ)

    🟦Democratic 49%
    🟥Republican 47%

    Districts 1 & 6 are tossup or lean D according to most forecasters. The HHR projection page currently has BOTH of these in the Dem column. But given the numbers according to this poll, both are very likely true tossups. Then districts 2 and 8 are rated by some as only Likely R. These would be safe against a 47/49 split.

    Like

  23. Dolly Parton has passed away.

    80 years old.

    Great singer and performer.

    A great PERSON.

    Like

  24. RIP, Dolly Parton

    Like

  25. “Employees at Massachusetts General Hospital who worked alongside Lindsay Clancy say she had been an “amazing mother, nurse, and friend” prior to last week’s family tragedy that rattled several South Shore communities.”

    “Family tragedy”… geezus. I guess the Holocaust was a “community tragedy”.

    Like I said above, for an insanity defense you have to be insane BEFORE the crime.

    If Clancy was insane, she should get the Nobel Prize for Hiding Insanity.

    In the trial, there was not ONE iota of evidence that anyone who knew her thought she was insane. Not her husband, parents, in-laws, co-workers, patients, friends, therapists, nobody. Her diagnosis was depression, not insanity.

    In low income families, sometimes you have no choice but to run the risk of leaving children with someone showing mental illness. But Clancy’s family was well off and had the resources to isolate the children from her if they thought she was really insane. Same with her bosses and co-workers at Mass Gen Hospital. If they thought she was insane, she wouldn’t be working there. Same with teachers and mothers of other children, they would blow the whistle if they thought a mother of children in their school was insane.

    But none of this matters. Only wokeness matters. Only the view that no one is responsible for their own actions and any criminal action can be blamed on society matters.

    Like

  26. Too many examples of Jason’s intellectual dishonesty but don’t want to start down that road. Instead, I will just say GFY”

    I guess that is Bitter’s way of admitting he only used half the quote when there was a clear caveat following it.

    Like

  27. LEGAL IMMIGRATION

    To move up or down the list of getting in…

    –do you speak English as your first language

    –is English a second language

    –where do you score on a physical health scale 1-10

    –where do you score on a mental health test

    –how many pounds over or underweight are you

    –are you a skilled worker

    –criminal history

    –do you have a degree beyind high school

    –what finacial assets do you have

    –and then rate themselves on various things, 1-10 like with 1 being do not agree at all a d 10 means wholeheartedly ageee

    *I support constitutional law over sharia law

    *I like bacon

    *it is ok to cook a chicken on a fire in your hotel room

    *women should be subservie to men

    *LBGTQs should be jailed or killed

    *I think people ought to dress like Americans instead of dressing like they do in their home country

    *I think laws are suggestions

    *people should not be allowed to have dogs and walk them on a sidewall on front of a mosque

    Like

  28. Like

  29. The next Atlantic tropical storm is going to be named Dolly

    Liked by 1 person

  30. 14 yr old Dolly Parton singing at a gas station in Fountain City, TN

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DajFbmfxLXz/

    Like

  31. Turn the sound on

    Like

  32. “JUST NOW: President Trump posts this gem and Democrats can’t stand his success in DC Trump and Doug Burgum are on a GENERATIONAL run! – 2,300 lights fixed – 1,460 benches rehabbed/installed – 500+ instances of graffiti cleaned – 250+ truckloads of debris hauled from the Carp Pond at Constitution Gardens – 250+ tons of pothole repair material applied – 162 homeless encampments removed – 134 rat-resistant trash cans installed – 83 statues, monuments, and memorials cleaned – 22 fountains fixed – 1+ mile of fencing repainted.”

    Liked by 1 person

  33. DOLLY PARTON TRIBUTE

    ●●●●●

    Dolly was the epitome of a class act.

    The very talented Dolly grew up in very humble circumstances yet she rose to wealth, fame and prominence. But she never forgot her roots…the place from where she came.

    She used her wealth to provide opportunities for people in the part of TN where she grew up and called home. Despite being told it was a dumb idea, Dolly saw her idea of Dollywood blossom into a reality. Her finacial inpact as a job creating entrepreneur is astounding. She started libraries. She did other philanthropic work. So many owe her so much…

    She is a shinning example of what is possible in a country like the U.S. that affords such limitless opportunities to those who have a dream and work to achieve it.

    Trump hit a home run as he orders the U.S. flag flown at half staff for a week beginning tonight. DOLLY and the life she led is an inspiration to all in this country. She is such an apt role model for others to follow.

    The story telling words of Dolly’s many, many songs soothed, touched and captured the hearts of generations of people in America. They helped people cope, they gave people hope. They lifted peoples’ spirits. They helped people heal inside.

    Dolly became a role model for many throughout her life. Married to the same man for 50 some years. She was committed to her marriage, her family and her fans. She never let wealth and fame lead her astray from her core beliefs and values. She was always “down to earth Dolly.”

    She had a beautiful voice, and her exterior beauty was surpassed only by her inner beauty.

    Dolly,….”Go Rest High On The Mountain.”

    I am so glad you were in our lives.

    ******

    Excuse me. I think I got something in my eye…

    I did not cry when Elvis died, but…this is different.

    Liked by 1 person

  34. But, but Hormuzzle is closed.

    Like

  35. What people weren’t aware with Dolly Parton was her 200 or so quotes….

    “Find out who you are and do it on purpose”

    “If your actions creates a legacy that inspires others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, then, you are an excellent leader”

    “The way I see it, if you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain!”

    “It’s hard to be a diamond in a rhinestone world”

    “Don’t get so busy making a living that you forget to make a life”

    “I’ve tried ever diet in the book. I tried some that weren’t in the book. I tried eating the book. It tasted better than most of the diets”

    “I always just thought if you see somebody without a smile-give them yours!”

    “We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails”

    “Smile-it increases your face value”

    RIP Dolly Parton. She was one of a kind.

    https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/144067.Dolly_Parton

    Liked by 1 person

  36. “Like I said above, for an insanity defense you have to be insane BEFORE the crime”

    False.

    It’s established at the time of the crime.

    https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-634-insanity-defense-reform-act-1984

    PS-this has nothing to do with the Lindsay Clancy case.

    Like

  37. Liked by 1 person

  38. “Like I said above, for an insanity defense you have to be insane BEFORE the crime”

    False.

    It’s established at the time of the crime.”

    LOL

    What a crock of crap.

    Sorry, no, you don’t become insane at the trial.

    And if you are not insane beforeyour commit the crime, then you are not insane.

    You are confused in your rush to absolve this murderer, while the trial obviously determines the VERDICT of insanity, in order for the the insanity defense to be applied, she would have to be insane at the time of the murder.

    But don’t worry, John, she will get a free pass, bet on it. There will be jurors that will eat up the defense sh-t sandwich like it is prime beef.

    And btw, from your link

    placed the burden of proof on the defendant to establish the defense by clear and convincing evidence;

    So far there has not been ONE IOTA of evidence provided at the trial that established this woman was insane. None, nada, zilch, zero.

    Like

  39. “The Kremlin said on Tuesday that remarks by Finnish President Alexander Stubb approving of Ukrainian strikes ‌on Russian territory, including on e-commerce warehouses, confirmed that he ‌belonged to the “party of war.”

    Wait.

    The country that invaded Ukraine and has hundreds of thousands of troops there is against war?

    Who knew?

    Like

  40. Shifting focus abroad, LePen polls well ahead of all likely challengers, even in the second round;

    Presidential election in France 2027

    Crushes Melanchon 68-32 Leads both “centrist” candidates 57-43, and 55-45. These numbers are almost identical to a survey in July that saw her ahead of Melanchon 70-30. Meanwhile, Spain is asking the EU for money to offer welfare payments to the invaders of Ceuta; yeah, I’ll bet that goes over really well. Stuff like that might just be enough to propel LePen to victory.

    Like

  41. Walt’s tribute to Dolly Parton was well deserved. Infrequently do you find a talent like her’s so genuine and beautiful on the inside as well as outside.

    Liked by 1 person

  42. Jason, just pointing out the error of your thinking based upon legal interpretations You really seemed to be obsessed with the Clancy case.

    Like

  43. Walt, nice photo of you both….including the fact it was a Cardboard cutout of her. The accolades coming forth are immediate and amazing. Some are calling her an icon, others “a legend.”

    Liked by 1 person

  44. You really seemed to be obsessed with the Clancy case”

    Nah, I only mention the Clancy case because I think it has major implications, all of them bad. But if you want to call my war on wokeness an obsession, I plead guilty.

    I am already resigned to the fact there will be no justice for the 3 little kids murdered in cold blood by their completely sane and evil mother.

    This case is a mere symptom of what is wrong with a society that is shunning personal responsibility and accepting a culture where blame can always be attributed to other people and other factors. There are now people demonstrating “in support” of Clancy at the MA courthouse. We live in a country where if you strangle 3 little kids to death you get a chanting crowd to support you.

    Today the forensic psychologist for the prosecution Dr. Kirk Heilbrun testfied that he believes Clancy was “criminally responsible” for the killings. No kidding.

    It won’t matter.

    Like

  45. Hey Walt, what was your shoulder bumping into there?

    Liked by 1 person

  46. Jason would be surprised to know that most civil and criminal trials have experts who disagree.

    The only “justice” in this case would be if her suicide attempt had succeeded rather than paralyzing her.

    Like

  47. Le Pen reminds me of Charlie Brown and Lucy’s football.

    It wouldn’t be the first time she leads in the polls and then loses.

    I am skeptical she can win, except maybe Melanchon. He won’t get all the votes of the centrist candidates, or even most of them.

    If a centrist candidate makes it to the second round, however, the leftists will rally around him to defeat Le Pen.

    It is hard to poll a second round before you really know who is going to be there. While votes for the first round may be more firmly based, the second round situation is not.

    Like

  48. 20% counted in SC with (unfortunately) Graham leading Norman by over 6.

    Like

  49. Graham just got the check mark with almost 70% counted. I’m super disappointed, as I thought Norman was a far better candidate!

    Like

  50. Wow, Janzam opposes Trump’ ‘s hand picked candidate?

    I hope they don’t revoke her Cult credentials.

    Like

  51. If I was in SC, I would have voted for Graham.

    Not because of Trump’s endorsement, but because Lindsay Graham represented SC well, and I think his sister will too. In addition, she was appointed by a three term governor to fill out his Lindsay’s term, that carries some weight.

    Hopefully she will carry on Lindsay Graham’s foreign policy views and oppose isolationism.

    Like

  52. ”It wouldn’t be the first time she leads in the polls and then loses.”

    Always in the first round, though; I don’t ever recall her leading the overall national vote in a runoff. But need, she polled poorly against Macron last time but managed tot take 43-44%, well above the mid-30s expectations.

    Like

  53. I’m super disappointed, as I thought Norman was a far better candidate!

    Jan – Other than you hating Lindsay Graham, why was Norman a far better candidate?

    Like

  54. Like

  55. Janz, he endorsed Nikita Haley for president. Trump would not support him. Didn’t seem like a bad person, but his endorsement of a rino did him in.

    Like

  56. Nikita ran as Quittens with boobs. A liberal R at best. Open borders, a porker, etc.

    Like

  57. Tina never had an issue with Trump being a major donor to far left Dems and Planned Parenthood for decades. Trump is the ultimate RINO.

    Like

  58. Freepassers never have issues with 1000 points of liberalism, open borders, and a bigger dept of education run by the gubment.

    Like

  59. None of what Tina claims has been posted at HHR. Of course, she won’t respond to Trump’s decades of supporting Dems.

    Like

  60. Dissension in the Cult ranks?

    Horrors!

    Like

  61. You know the freepassers will blame trump soon for domestic beef supplies causing price hikes. They will blame muh tariffs, but this is very much like the egg and dairy prices being high under Demented (supply constraints). We should have declining prices in 2 years. Explanation is here:

    Like

  62. We will get something like Iran is winning/Hormuzzle is closed, 50 vaccines at one time to newborns (Kennedy wants to take them all away), and weapons are free.

    Like

  63. Trump funded Chuck Schumer, Hillary Clinton, Planned Parenthood, Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate Committee.

    No problem there.

    Norman endorsed Nikki Haley.

    RINO!!!!!!

    Like

  64. Just wait….

    Like

  65. And Tina again gives Trump a free pass for bankrolling Dems for decades.

    Like

  66. We should have declining prices in 2 years.”

    Heck of a campaign slogan.

    Like

  67. Muh planned parenthood. I think freepassers missed planned parenthood was defunded by president trump. Left to grow rapidly under the previous R admins

    Like

  68. Let’s hope some of Lindsay Graham’s foreign policy views rub off on his sister.

    Like

  69. See, I said just you wait and a free passer is talking about a campaign slogan. Never once did they mention the 28% rise in food prices and general inflation under trump.

    Moreover, my post pertained to beef prices. Hamburger prices are declining per recent data.

    Like

  70. It also appears that graham clearly supported the save America act while the chamber of commerce candidate did not.

    Like

  71. under demented***

    Like

  72. I also want 55 Covid vaccines/boosters.

    -free passers

    Like

  73. Donald Trump dismissed the notion he is not a true conservative because he supports Planned Parenthood, insisting he is “just doing what’s right.”

    “Look, Planned Parenthood has done very good work for many, many — for millions of women,” Trump said in a news conference Tuesday night. “And I’ll say it, and I know a lot of the so-called conservatives, they say that’s really … cause I’m a conservative, but I’m a common-sense conservative.”

    Like

  74. Never once did they mention the 28% rise in food prices and general inflation under trump.”

    This is true, but I certainly mentioned high inflation under Biden.

    Like

  75. Just about everyone in R party supports the contents of the Save America Act.

    What many Rs don’t support, and I don’t either, is committing political suicide by eliminating the filibuster to achieve it.

    Like

  76. Donald Trump dismissed the notion he is not a true conservative because he supports Planned Parenthood, insisting he is “just doing what’s right.”

    Does Trump get a free pass for supporting Planned Parenthood?

    A friend wants to know?

    Like

  77. Until Tina admits Trump is the Mother of all RINOS her attacks on RINOS are not credible.

    Like

  78. I think freepassers missed planned parenthood was defunded by president trump.

    After how many dead babies with Trump’s support?

    Like

  79. I also want 55 Covid vaccines/boosters.

    -free passers

    Said by nobody at HHR. Step away from the bottle, Tina.

    Like

  80. Remember when Trump said Bill Clinton was the greatest President of his lifetime and Hilary Clinton would be a great President?

    Tina will pretend he did not or just make things up.

    Like

  81. I am sorry this is happening to Tina and Janzam. Maybe Janzam was prescient when she came up with “Zelensky’s War on Russia”.

    “Flight restrictions were also introduced at airports in Kaluga, Tambov, Penza, Saratov, Saransk, Cheboksary, Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan and Yaroslavl, Rosaviatsiya said in posts to Telegram.

    The drones intercepted over Moscow were among the 426 Ukrainian craft claimed shot down overnight by the Russian Defense Ministry. Drones were intercepted over 15 Russian regions and occupied Crimea, the ministry said in a post to Telegram.

    Among the targets hit was a Wildberries e-commerce facility in the city of Kotovsk in the Tambov region. Wildberries released a statement confirming the latest attack and said that all new shipments to the affected center had been suspended.

    Local Gov. Yevgeny Pervyshov said in a post to Telegram that the strikes “caused a fire at the Wildberries logistics center. The fire covered an area of more than 100,000 square meters.

    Elsewhere, Russian media reports indicated an attack on a major oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, in the city of Kstovoa.”

    Like

  82. 100,000 square meters is like 2 football fields. That is a big fire.

    Like

  83. I bet there are a lot of Wildberry workers calling in sick these days.

    Like

  84. Remember when Trump said Bill Clinton was the greatest President of his lifetime and Hilary Clinton would be a great President?”

    I remember.

    I also remember him saying the government should pay for socialized health care and that deficits didn’t matter because the government could always just print more money.

    Anyone remember “Nikita” ever saying anything remotely similar?

    No? Me neither.

    Like

  85. Walt for sure will be around to hear it.

    Dolly Parton left behind a secret song — which won’t be released for 20 years

    Dolly Parton left behind a secret song that she planned to release on her 100th birthday in 2046. A CD featuring the track is stored in a time capsule at her Dollywood theme park in Tennessee. 

    According to Billboard, the song is titled “My Place in History” and was written in 2015.”

    Like

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