The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

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University of Texas Poll

DW

Finds a lot of undecided in the US Senate race

University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll | 8/5-8/13 RV

US Senate Texas 2026

US Senate
🟦James Talarico 42%
🟥Ken Paxton 39%
🟨Ted Brown 3%
——
Texas Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 45% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 40%
🟨Pat Dixon 3%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (TX)
🟥Republican 48%
🟦Democratic 44%
——
Texas Lt. Governor
🟥Dan Patrick 42% (incumbent)
🟦Vikki Goodwin 35%
🟨Anthony Cristo 4%

NYT/Philly Inquirer/Siena poll | 8/17-8/21

(Likely voters)
Pennsylvania Governor 2026
🟦Josh Shapiro 55% (incumbent)
🟥Stacy Garrity 39%
—
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (PA)
🟦Democratic 51%
🟥Republican 44%

30 responses to “University of Texas Poll”

  1. DW Avatar
    DW

    and for those keeping score at home, the University of Texas had a 7.8 point skew to Harris in Texas in 2024. And this is a REGISTERED voter poll where undecideds were not pushed at all.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Dahmer

    Insane?

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    Generic congressional ballot 2026 (RV)

    🟦Democratic 46% (no change)
    🟥Republican 40% (+1)

    Economist/YouGov poll | 8/21-8/24

    Like

  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  5. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I don’t think a news anchor has shown that much emotion since Walter Cronkite announced the death of JFK.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. DW Avatar
    DW

    Politico: Byron Donalds picks Florida legislator Bryan Ávila as running mate, leaning into anti-communist message Ávila, from heavily Cuban-populated Hialeah, is a dean of a criminal justice college and Florida Army National Guard captain.

    Excellent. The GOP’s primary hope this fall is to nationalize the option as voting for communism or common sense.

    Like

  7. DW Avatar
    DW

    Don’t forget that Cash Cow is still going through post-partum depression after giving birth to a new calf several months ago. HHR News is very compassionate and understanding and is not upset that she left the anchor desk during a broadcast.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    BDPC-D poll | 8/12-8/13 RV US House 2026

    Louisiana’s 6th congressional district (top two advance)

    🟦Chauna Banks 19%
    🟦Patrick Forbes 8%

    Democrat total 27%

    🟥Rick Edmonds 16%
    🟥Blake Miguez 9%
    🟥Larry Davis 6%

    GOP total: 31%

    42% Undecided? Garbage poll.

    Like

  9. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16078531/fox-news-anchor-murder-mother-wichita-kansas-admits.html?banner=daily-download

    The cheese grater may have been excessive.

    Like

  10. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Dahmer

    Insane?”

    Zzzzz…..

    Jeffrey Dahmer was certainly not insane, as the jury correctly understood by the evidence provided.

    “A Milwaukee jury legally found Jeffrey Dahmer sane in February 1992, rejecting his defense team’s plea of not guilty by reason of insanity.

    The Trial and Legal Sanity

    • The Plea: Dahmer pleaded guilty to 15 murders in Wisconsin (and later one in Ohio) but argued he was insane when he committed them due to overwhelming psychological compulsions.
    • The Legal Standard: Under Wisconsin law, the jury had to decide if Dahmer suffered from a mental disease and whether that disease left him unable to understand the wrongfulness of his actions or unable to conform his behavior to the law.
    • The Verdict: Ten of the twelve jurors concluded he was legally sane, finding that his actions showed clear planning, premeditation, and an awareness that his crimes were wrong. Most users on Reddit agree that his careful concealment of evidence and deliberate targeting of victims proved he met the legal definition of sanity rather than insanity.

    Evidence Against the Insanity Defense

    • Premeditation: Prosecutors showed that Dahmer carefully planned his murders, lured victims, hid bodies, and destroyed evidence.
    • Awareness of Guilt: Experts testified that Dahmer knew his actions were illegal and wrong, which disqualified him from an insanity ruling despite his severe psychological disorders and paraphilias.
    • The Sentence: Because he was deemed sane, the jury convicted him, and he received multiple consecutive life prison terms instead of being sent to a psychiatric facility.

    Of course, that was 1992 before the era of judicial wokeness.

    Today, the “OMG, he ate his victims, he has to be crazy”, and “society should have helped him, it’s society’s fault” BS would probably prevail.

    Like

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    If Jeffrey Dahmer went to trial today he would get the “Clancy Treatment”.

    His heinous crimes would be ignored, his victims forgotten and HE would be the victim.

    There would be lots of blame to be spread around. His parents, his boss, evil uncaring capitalist society, drugs, alcohol, medication, you name it.

    There would be only one person not responsible: Jeffrey Dahmer, society’s victim.

    Like

  12. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    giving birth to a new calf several months ago.”

    Does Walt know who got into Cash Cow’s pants?

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Of course, that was 1992 before the era of judicial wokeness.

    The M’Naughton defense goes back almost 2 centuries. Does Jason think ANY person who commits a crime was insane when they did it?

    Like

  14. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Stabbing your mother in the face with 4 knives and a cheese grater is not “normal”, according to Bitter’s definition of what kind of murder should get a free pass or not.

    So send her to a country cl… huh, psychiatric facility for a few years and call it a day.

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/08/25/us-news/rudy-giuliani-threatens-to-sue-tucker-carlson-in-rant-over-hunter-bidens-laptop/

    Who fell further faster? Giuliani or Carlson? I would say Carlson.

    Like

  16. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I don’t even know if we have a cheese grater. I do support the right to own cheese graters. Both can be true.

    Like

  17. DW Avatar
    DW

    GrayHouse poll | 8/9-8/11

    Arizona Governor 2026

    🟦Katie Hobbs 49% (incumbent)
    🟥Andy Biggs 45%

    Like

  18. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The M’Naughton defense goes back almost 2 centuries”

    Yes, and it had clear standards as to what constitutes insanity.

    Number one, you actually have to be insane. It is not enough to have your friends, neighbors, hired “experts” and lawyers claim you are insane.

    The 1992 Dahmer jury understood that. I doubt the Clancy jury will.

    But today, there is tremendous pressure against the evil policy of “incarceration” and a complete rejection of the concept of personal responsibility.

    Today, criminals are not criminals, they are victims. They are victims of poverty, broken homes, abuse, bullying, addiction, etc. The fact the vast majority of people with these issues in their lives don’t turn out to be criminals is never considered.

    Like

  19. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Does Jason think ANY person who commits a crime was insane when they did it?”

    Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    But they were insane BEFORE they committed the crime, not after.

    Like

  20. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    Baby steps.

    Like

  21. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Hands down Carlson.

    Not sure Giuliani really “fell”. He went from being an establishment R to a hard core cultist, but that is not “falling” to me. His political instinct to support Trump was smart, but hard to understand why he was compelled to become Trump’s attack dog.

    I think the judgment against him in GA was ridiculous, so his “financial falling” in my view was unjust and probably the reason for some of Giuliani’s, hmm, mental “fall”.

    Carlson, on the other hand, went from being a mainstream conservative to Bunu incarnate.

    THAT is falling.

    Like

  22. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    Baby steps.”

    Why not put the entire quote instead of cherry picking.

    “Yes, I think there are criminals who are actually insane.

    But they were insane BEFORE they committed the crime, not after.”

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Taking half the quote without including the caveat is intellectual dishonesty.

    Like

  24. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    intellectual dishonesty

    Too many examples of Jason’s intellectual dishonesty but don’t want to start down that road. Instead, I will just say GFY.

    Like

  25. DW Avatar
    DW

    the generic ballot in ARIZONA according to that same poll:

    Generic congressional ballot 2026 (AZ)

    🟦Democratic 49%
    🟥Republican 47%

    Districts 1 & 6 are tossup or lean D according to most forecasters. The HHR projection page currently has BOTH of these in the Dem column. But given the numbers according to this poll, both are very likely true tossups. Then districts 2 and 8 are rated by some as only Likely R. These would be safe against a 47/49 split.

    Like

  26. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Dolly Parton has passed away.

    80 years old.

    Great singer and performer.

    A great PERSON.

    Like

  27. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    RIP, Dolly Parton

    Like

  28. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    “Employees at Massachusetts General Hospital who worked alongside Lindsay Clancy say she had been an “amazing mother, nurse, and friend” prior to last week’s family tragedy that rattled several South Shore communities.”

    “Family tragedy”… geezus. I guess the Holocaust was a “community tragedy”.

    Like I said above, for an insanity defense you have to be insane BEFORE the crime.

    If Clancy was insane, she should get the Nobel Prize for Hiding Insanity.

    In the trial, there was not ONE iota of evidence that anyone who knew her thought she was insane. Not her husband, parents, in-laws, co-workers, patients, friends, therapists, nobody. Her diagnosis was depression, not insanity.

    In low income families, sometimes you have no choice but to run the risk of leaving children with someone showing mental illness. But Clancy’s family was well off and had the resources to isolate the children from her if they thought she was really insane. Same with her bosses and co-workers at Mass Gen Hospital. If they thought she was insane, she wouldn’t be working there. Same with teachers and mothers of other children, they would blow the whistle if they thought a mother of children in their school was insane.

    But none of this matters. Only wokeness matters. Only the view that no one is responsible for their own actions and any criminal action can be blamed on society matters.

    Like

  29. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Too many examples of Jason’s intellectual dishonesty but don’t want to start down that road. Instead, I will just say GFY”

    I guess that is Bitter’s way of admitting he only used half the quote when there was a clear caveat following it.

    Like

  30. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    LEGAL IMMIGRATION

    To move up or down the list of getting in…

    –do you speak English as your first language

    –is English a second language

    –where do you score on a physical health scale 1-10

    –where do you score on a mental health test

    –how many pounds over or underweight are you

    –are you a skilled worker

    –criminal history

    –do you have a degree beyind high school

    –what finacial assets do you have

    –and then rate themselves on various things, 1-10 like with 1 being do not agree at all a d 10 means wholeheartedly ageee

    *I support constitutional law over sharia law

    *I like bacon

    *it is ok to cook a chicken on a fire in your hotel room

    *women should be subservie to men

    *LBGTQs should be jailed or killed

    *I think people ought to dress like Americans instead of dressing like they do in their home country

    *I think laws are suggestions

    *people should not be allowed to have dogs and walk them on a sidewall on front of a mosque

    Like

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