The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +3219216

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+3.0+2.5+2.0+1.5+1.0+1.0+3.3+6.0+7.0+8.5
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Flurry of New Polls

DW

TEXAS POLL By Emerson

SENATE
🟥 Ken Paxton: 47%
🟦 James Talarico: 46%
🟨 Other: 2%
—
GOVERNOR
🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 49%
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 45%
🟨 Other: 3%
——

8/9-10 | LV

MAINE POLL By Fox News

Governor
🟦 Pingree: 49%
🟥 Charles: 38%
🟨 Bennett: 9%
——
Senate
🟦 Jackson: 48%
🟥 Collins (i): 46%

8/6-10, RV

MONTANA SENATE POLL

🟥 Kurt Alme: 45%
🟨 Seth Bodnar: 30%
🟦 Alani Bankhead: 15%
🟪 Kyle Austin: 6%

Hart Research | 8/1-4 | 800 LV

KANSAS POLL – Senate

🟥 Roger Marshall (i): 46%
🟦 Adam Hamilton: 45%
⬜️ Not sure: 5%
——
PPP-D for @MajorityPAC (Dem)
8/6-8

OHIO POLL – (Dem) internal

Senate
🟦 Sherrod Brown: 47%
🟥 Jon Husted (I): 43%
🟨 B. Redpath: 4%
——
Governor
🟦 Amy Acton: 46%
🟥 V. Ramaswamy: 44%
🟨 D. Kissick: 5%

Tulchin Research; 7/29-8/4; 600 LV

OH-07 POLL For pro-Pointdexter Group

🟦 Poindexter: 43%
🟥 Miller (inc): 35%
—
Senate
🟦 Brown: 46%
🟥 Husted (i): 43%
—
Governor
🟦 Acton: 44%
🟥 Vivek: 44%
——
The Next 50; 8/7-10; 866 LV

Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District for pro-Hill group

🟥 Nick Begich (i): 46%
⬜️ Bill Hill: 42%

GBAO-D; 8/3-5; 500 LV

53 responses to “Flurry of New Polls”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Welcome to Lupi Llama.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    From Yesterday’s Elon University poll of NC showing Cooper way up:

    “Among voters who have heard a great deal about Whatley, the ballot is a 45%-45% tie, and among those who have heard some, Whatley leads 49% to 46%. Cooper’s overall margin is built on voters who know little or nothing about his opponent.”

    Like

  4. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/08/12/us-news/scientists-discover-new-demon-cavefish-in-highly-studied-alabama-cave/

    The demon cavefish? Seems a bit ominous.

    Like

  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    Dem running for Texas Governor admits she’s losing:

    TEXAS GOV POLL – Hinojosa (Dem) internal

    🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 49%
    🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 48%

    GBAO-D | 8/4-9 | 1,000 LV

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    S&P 500 rises to record after more encouraging inflation data

    Like

  7. DW Avatar
    DW

    okay, this is beyond absurd. Emerson’s Texas poll included a subset of 8 respondents who identify as non-binary, and surprise surprise they are all for the equally insane fruitcake Talarico:

    TX Senate crosstabs (Non-binary voters only)

    Senate

    🟦 James Talarico: 100%
    🟥 Ken Paxton: 0%

    —— Governor
    🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 87%
    🟥 Greg Abbott: 0%
    ⬜️ Not sure: 1%

    Emerson | n=8 LV | 8/9-10

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    Have you ever seen a picture of Talarico in short sleeves? They guy literally has no arm muscles. Just skin wrapped around his bones. One of Bitter’s girl’s softball players could best him in an arm wrestle.

    Like

  9. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Damm, that IS a dead ringer for Lupita.

    Well done.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Has Tina moved to deport the piranhas yet?

    Stay tuned.

    “According to WGAL-TV in Lancaster, 8-year-old Seamus Coffey and his dad, Michael, were fishing at Ridley Park Lake when the youngster hooked a fish the pair assumed was a bass or a bluegill.

    But once it got to land, they learned the truth. The fish was a piranha — a freshwater fish native to South American rivers, floodplains, and lakes, that, thanks to the movies, is famous for their razor-sharp teeth and powerful jaws.”

    Like

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    She was not insane

    Damn. Not only is Jason a lawyer. Now he is a psychiatrist”

    Damm, Bitter is so anxious to give this murderer a free pass while three small children suffered a horrible death that he even refutes the findings of the psychiatrist who treated her.

    That is really dedication to the new woke mantra that no one is really responsible for their actions.

    “A psychiatrist explained in court why she did not diagnose Lindsay Clancy with postpartum psychosis in the weeks leading up to the deaths of her three children.

    Goodheart testified that she considered Clancy to be a “low-risk” patient when she was admitted. Clancy told her she was experiencing insomnia and numbness, which she attributed to possible side effects from her prescribed medication. She also reported having suicidal thoughts but Goodheart said her patient did not have a plan to act on them.

    “I had no reason to believe she was not a reliable reporter,” Goodheart testified.

    Goodheart’s initial diagnosis was “major depressive disorder, severe without psychotic features,” she told the court. As the days passed, Goodheart said Clancy reported sleeping well and appeared to be improving. She also described Clancy as cooperative, noting that a plan was in place to gradually lower her medication dosage.

    It was ultimately determined that Clancy could be discharged on Jan. 5, 2023, as long as she attended a psychiatric follow-up appointment the next day. “I did not have any concerns about her safety or a risk for anybody else,” Goodheart testified. She also said that Clancy showed no signs of psychosis during her treatment and had no prior diagnosis of the condition.

    During cross-examination, defense attorney Kevin Reddington questioned Goodheart about Clancy’s prior treatment records and medication she was taking. Goodheart said Clancy was not asked to sign a release for her records and that an initial blood test did not identify which medications were in her system.

    “Psychiatry is not based on blood tests, it’s based on the patient who is sitting in front of you,” Goodheart testified.

    Like

  12. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    People who did not think this murderer was insane:

    Her husband

    Her co-workers

    Her relatives

    Her friends

    Her psychiatrist

    People who believe she was insane

    Her lawyer

    Bitter

    Like

  13. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Let me fix that

    Her lawyer doesn’t really believe she is insane either.

    So that leaves Bitter.

    Like

  14. DW Avatar
    DW

    Inside Elections, run by the guy who took over for Toupee Rothenberg, I think his name is Gonzales, has a much more restrained expectation for this fall, not going all in on a huge blue wave like so many others:

    Inside Elections 2026 Forecast

    US Senate

    🟥 Republicans: 52
    🟦 Democrats: 47

    ——

    US House

    🟦 Democrats: 210
    🟥 Republicans: 206
    🟨 Toss-ups: 19

    —— Senate Ratings

    🟨 Michigan: Toss-up
    🟥 Alaska: Lean R
    🟥 Texas: Lean R
    🟫 Maine: Tilt R
    🟫 Ohio: Tilt R
    🟫 Iowa: Tilt R
    🟦 North Carolina: Tilt D
    🟦 Georgia: Tilt D
    🟦 New Hampshire: Tilt D

    Liked by 1 person

  15. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Everyone is just SO concerned about this poor woman, victim of a uncaring society, who just HAD to strangle her little kids, what else could she do?

    The children themselves, whose lives were cruelly cut short by their own mother? Ignore them, focus on giving their murdering mother a free pass. In Bitter’s world and the society we now live in, f–k’em.

    Like

  16. DW Avatar
    DW

    What Gonzales seems to be surprising me the most with is GA and NH both tilt T and not lean D. I completely agree on NC being tilt as once the electorate gets to know Whatley more, that gap will close in a hurry. Not sure if by enough, but its not going to be a blowout.

    Like

  17. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    So that leaves Bitter.

    I don’t know if she was insane or not. I am open to the possibility of proven in court.

    Meanwhile, Jason is a cheerleader for a man who shot his wife as a “mercy killing.”

    Like

  18. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    My niece had a psychiatrist. She had a job. She had a boyfriend. Nobody thought she was insane. Then she tied the belt from a bathrobe around her neck, went into her bedroom closet and hanged herself.

    I think killing yourself is not the act of a sane person. I will wait for Dr. Jason to render his opinion.

    Like

  19. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I’m still waiting to see if Jason, who is tough on all crimes except murdering Alzheimer’s patients, agrees with me that drunk drivers who kill people should be convicted of first degree murder and spend life in prison.

    Like

  20. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/08/13/us-news/jamie-komoroskis-dads-astonishing-words-of-sympathy-in-jailhouse-call/

    Jason probably thinks the drunk driving killer who murdered a bride on her wedding day is being unfairly targeted for having a good time.

    Like

  21. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    How about we put the killer mom, 91 year old killer husband, and drunk driving killer in the same cell for the rest of their lives?

    Deal?

    If you agree, we can then suspend the killer husband’s sentence.

    Like

  22. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    I hadn’t heard of the Clancy case until it was discussed here. This morning I read about it, and was struck by the number of ironies and medical malpractices woven into this tragic story. The ironies were that Lindsey was a labor and delivery nurse (you don’t chose this field of practice unless you love being around babies), and her husband Patrick married an infertility specialist after his divorce from Lindsey. The malpractice involved giving this unstable woman a series of 9 mind-altering medications, and then letting her take care of 3 small children with postpartum psychosis (versus the milder form of postpartum depression).

    I think the various psychiatrists prescribing these meds should have some sort of accountability for these murders. As for Lindsey, she has already been sentenced to a lifetime of h*ll, being paralyzed by her own attempted suicide, and living with the memories of her horrific misdeeds. IMO, she should be institutionalized for life.

    Like

  23. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am sorry this happened to Janzam and Tina.

    “A former Ukrainian submarine commander who had defected to Russia has been killed by a bomb planted by a female assassin.

    Robert Mansurovich Shageev, who was wanted for high treason by Kyiv, is believed to have been the target of the attack. A woman, 32, was arrested in Sevastopol on suspicion of carrying out the bombing on behalf of Ukrainian special services.

    Russia’s Federal Security Service said the woman was a Russian national, state news agency Tass reported. She planted an explosive device in a bin while the officer walked down a staircase in Stoletovsky Avenue, Telegram channels linked to the security services reported.

    The explosion was reportedly so loud that residents mistook it for a drone strike on a residential building. Mr Shageev died from his injuries at the scene.”

    Like

  24. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    How about we put the killer mom, 91 year old killer husband, and drunk driving killer in the same cell for the rest of their lives?

    Deal?”

    Nah.

    I think your attempt to draw some type of parallel between the mercy killing of the woman with severe Alzheimers being solely cared by a 91 year old and the murder of 3 perfectly healthy children by their own mother despicable and disgusting.

    GFY.

    Like

  25. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Janzam and Bitter are in agreement, give the murderer a free pass.

    Not suprised.

    Like

  26. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I think killing yourself is not the act of a sane person. I will wait for Dr. Jason to render his opinion.”

    Of course I don’t agree with this BS, and neither does any person with at least half a brain and the entire medical field.

    People who commit suicide are not insane per se, obviously some insane people commit suicide.

    If my wife killed all our children I might have contemplated suicide. It doesn’t mean I was insane.

    Like

  27. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    agrees with me that drunk drivers who kill people should be convicted of first degree murder and spend life in prison”

    No.

    I would differentiate someone with several DUI’s who kills someone and for example a 16 year old who gets drunk for the first time and kills someone.

    But while I don’t necessarily agree with “life in prison” or first degree murder for all cases, I do think murder/manslaughter charges are appropriate.

    In this case, this self entitled little whiny b-tch deserves the 25 year sentence.

    Like

  28. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/08/11/multiple-uss-abraham-lincoln-sailors-have-tried-to-go-overboard-amid-extended-deployment-families-say/

    “The Navy is preparing the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group to relieve Lincoln, Cao told families at the San Diego meeting. Officials have not provided a timeline, however, citing operational security.”

    When my husband was in the Navy he was deployed on a carrier, and understood what a long deployment can do to a crew.

    Like

  29. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    People who commit suicide are not insane per se,

    That’s a relief. My niece is less dead now. Thanks, Jason.

    Like

  30. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Janzam and Bitter are in agreement, give the murderer a free pass.

    Being institutionalized for life is not a free pass. Furthermore, living with the realization that you took the lives of your 3 young children, are also cringe-worthy thoughts you live with forever.

    Like

  31. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    The victim of a 16 year old who gets drunk for the first time and kills someone is just as dead as the victim of the repeat drunk driver.

    Fixed it.

    Like

  32. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    My dad did not know who I was for the last 2 years of his life. I guess I should have borrowed one of Jason’s guns or asked Jason to kill him.

    Like

  33. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    My niece had a psychiatrist. She had a job. She had a boyfriend. Nobody thought she was insane.”

    Exactly. And why no one thought she was insane? Because she wasn’t insane.

    Like

  34. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Because she wasn’t insane.

    Jason never heard of temporary insanity. I will check the DSM 5 and get back to him. Of course, he wants me to be comforted and think that a 25 year old woman hanging herself is a sane act.

    Like

  35. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Being institutionalized for life is not a free pass. Furthermore, living with the realization that you took the lives of your 3 young children, are also cringe-worthy thoughts you live with forever.”

    Zzzzz…..

    You really think she cares about that?

    You and I are more bothered by it than she will ever be.

    And yes, “institutionalized” IS a free pass. Even John Hinckley is now free.

    She will be committed to some facility with nice grounds for maybe a decade or two then set free because some shrink will say she is no longer a threat.

    Meanwhile, her 3 little kids will still be dead.

    Like

  36. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    My dad did not know who I was for the last 2 years of his life. I guess I should have borrowed one of Jason’s guns or asked Jason to kill him.”

    Zzzzz. … your dad was well cared for and didn’t have a 91 year old caretaker as the only person caring for him.

    Stop with the fake equivalencies.

    If you had asked me to kill him and I killed I think we both deserve jail.

    GFY.

    Like

  37. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Jason never heard of temporary insanity.’

    Major goal post moving alert. We have gone to insane to “temporarily insane” as the get out of jail card?

    Now everyone who commits suicide has “temporary insanity”.

    Or wait, everyone who commits murder can now allege temporary insanity as an excuse. How convenient.

    “Sorry your honor, I was temporarily insane when I shot ten kids in a playground. I am ok now though. My bad”.

    Like

  38. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK539912/

    Have fun.

    Like

  39. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Meanwhile, her 3 little kids will still be dead.

    So will the victim of the 16 year old drunk driver.

    So will the woman killed by her 91 year old husband.

    Jason only cares about the first victims.

    Like

  40. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Stop with the fake equivalencies.

    Hit a nerve. Good. GFY

    Like

  41. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Temporary insanity is a legal term. Psychotic break is the medical term. GFY

    Like

  42. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    nd think that a 25 year old woman hanging herself is a sane act.”

    More goal post moving. “Sane act” now.

    Your niece was not insane. Not even temporarily. The vast majority of people who commit suicide are not crazy.

    Take someone with a very painful debilitating and terminal illness. No quality of life at all. A terrible burden on the family and its finances.

    You could argue that this person committing suicide is actually engaging in a sane act, that living on in hellish pain to the bitter end is what would be insane.

    Like

  43. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Meanwhile, her 3 little kids will still be dead.

    So will the victim of the 16 year old drunk driver.

    So will the woman killed by her 91 year old husband.

    Jason only cares about the first victims.”

    Yes and no.

    I care about the kids and the bride. I think both murderers should rot in jail.

    I think the severe Alzheimer person is probably in a better place. I don’t think the 91 year old should go to jail.

    Sue me.

    Like

  44. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    think both murderers should rot in jail unless they were drunk 16 year olds.

    Fixed it.

    Like

  45. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    While I do think killing your 3 small kids intentionally is more heinous than a drunk driving accident, I can live with a 25 year sentence for both the mother and the drunk driver.

    But if I was judge, juror and executioner, I would sentence the mother to death.

    Like

  46. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    think both murderers should rot in jail unless they were drunk 16 year olds.

    Fixed it.”

    True. I don’t think a 16 year old first time offender should spend their whole life in jail.

    You probably wouldn’t either if it was your son.

    Like

  47. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Your niece was not insane. Not even temporarily.

    Right. Because a healthy 25 year old killing herself was a sane, rational act. I hope your children are not that sane and rational. GFY

    Like

  48. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I don’t think the 91 year old should go to jail.

    I think he should be convicted of first degree murder and sentenced to live in the home where he killed her.

    Like

  49. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Bridge today.

    Had my lucky underwear on again.

    Came in 2nd and won $3.

    Winning score was well over 5000 points. I had 3570, and third place was 3540.

    Yeah, daddy!

    Like

  50. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    You probably wouldn’t either if it was your son.

    I wouldn’t even attend the trial. Might not even visit him in jail. No need to support a stupid murderer who literally could have avoided it by just not drinking OR just not driving. Doing both is murder if somebody is killed by the driver. Hurting or killing somebody when driving drunk is not an accident. It is an equation. Drink + Drive = Whatever harm occurs.

    Like

  51. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    It’s still an accident.

    I think it might even be a legal term.

    Like

  52. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    You can’t make this sh-t up

    ABC Headline

    US ‘miscalculated’ in war due to intel ‘failures,’ Araghchi says”

    So now ABC’s go to source is the President of Iran.

    Like

  53. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    DW,

    Good debut for Lupi Llama… 😀

    Like

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