The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

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Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

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Trouble for GOP in FL-14?

DW

Maybe…maybe not. The gerrymandered seat was designed to rid Floridians of Kathy Castor. St. Pete Polls says not so fast:

FL-14 POLL

🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%
🟥 Kevin Steele: 39%
—
🟦 Kathy Castor (inc): 46%
🟥 Mike Beltran: 38%
——
StPetePolls – 7/14-15; 469 LV

Several points to consider. The GOP candidates are battling it out in a contested primary, which Beltran is likely to win. Most of the undecided are likely GOP friendly voters. Finally, don’t forget pollsters have a scorecard on past performance. St. Pete Polls earned an F grade in 2024 due to being off in their poll of Florida +8 in the direction of Kamala Harris.

49 responses to “Trouble for GOP in FL-14?”

  1. GF Avatar
    GF

    I was going to mention St. Pete’s record, but you covered it.

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    And just to review, St. Pete’s poll was within two weeks of election day, and they brought with them a substantial sample size:

    St. Pete Polls

    Oct. 23-25, 1,227 LV

    Kamala 45

    Trump 50

    Of course Trump won 56/43.

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    And I recall having a debate with some clown over at RRH Elections, who was condescending and dismissive of my approach to grade these pollsters on HOW THEY ACTUALLY PERFORMED, comparing what they said would happen against what happened. The guy was arguing that we cannot do that, that the data has to be put through a black box of gobble-de-gook that results in grades that don’t align with the reality.

    But not here at HHR. They get graded for how they actually performed.

    Like

  4. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I can smell the smoke from the Canadian wildfires. GFYs.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    A lot will depend on where the gas prices are, and of course that depends on where we are on Iran. Terrible decision by Trump to call off the dogs and give the Iranians over two months of breathing space. They just delayed and lied. The stalling did exactly what the Iranians aimed for. Push high gas prices right up against the November mid terms. Trump fell for it hook line and sinker. The “they badly want a deal” BS they were feeding him was obviously bogus. He got played. He got bad advice, I suspect from the Vance/Baris wing. Pretty sure Marco advised him to just finish them.

    Like

  6. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Trump’s “really, really big news” speech is scheduled for tonight at 6pm-PST.

    It is now thundering and lightning big time out here in the great Northwest. Sasquatch is scurrying for cover.

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    John – I will be in Seattle on Saturday and Sunday. Please schedule good weather. Thank you.

    Like

  8. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Bitterlaw, will do. Right now just the passing low coming in from the Gulf of Alaska colliding with the heat dome sneaking in and over the Cascades. This will pass. You’ll find perfect weather in Seattle over the weekend…blue skies and highs in the upper 70’s.

    PS-are you going to the Mariner game Sat or Sun? Tickets go fast.

    Like

  9. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  10. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    My wife plans the trips. I don’t think the game is on the list. I know we are going to the Space Needle, glass museum, market where they toss fish, and a tour of the historic underground below street level. We board the ship early Sunday afternoon.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Trump fell for it hook line and sinker. The “they badly want a deal” BS they were feeding him was obviously bogus.”

    Zzzzz…..

    Iran is a country of 90 million 2.5 times the size of Texas. They have been had a radical Islamic terrorist regime funding terrorist proxies for 50 years. They have vast oil reserves that brings them the funds they need to support their activities as well as to develop weapons systems and a nuclear program.

    Phil thinks you can just wave a magic wand and solve the problem, but if that was the case someone would have done it by now.

    Trump is the first American President who has had the courage to face this issue head on. He is not being played, he is not being suckered, he is not getting bad advice. He is not being naive.

    He is trying to achieve an end to the Iranian problem by structuring a long term deal that eliminates their nuclear bomb ambitions, ends their sponsorship of terrorist entities like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, expands the Abraham accords, and brings stability to the Straight of Hormuz.

    It is a monumental task and trying to analyze it by reading daily headlines is simplistic and shortsighted.

    I am one of Trump’s fiercest foreign policy critics here. But not Iran. What Trump is trying to do might well be impossible. But in my book, the risk rewards merits the attempt.

    Like

  12. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Try Elliot’s Oyster House on the waterfront.

    Yes, it is touristy and expensive, but you are a tourist and you can afford it. The view is worth it.

    If you are going to Pike’s Place then do the touristy thing and have some chowder at Pike Place Chowder for the experience. I recommend the Smoked Salmon Chowder.

    https://elliottsoysterhouse.com/

    Like

  13. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Bitterlaw, when you head out through the Puget Sound you’ll notice all of those islands-especially the San Juan Islands. For years that’s where a lot of writers and artists lived-very secluded lives and grew pot.

    And speaking of secluded homes-try checking out Bill Gates home (24 bathrooms, 6 kitchens, underwater sound system etc.) called Xanadu 2.0 on Lake Washington.

    And if you are checking out the Space Needle, you need to check out the Museum of Pop Culture-Jimi Hendrix, Grunge Rock, Bruce Lee right next door to the Space Needle.

    Like

  14. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Thank you for the suggestions.

    Like

  15. DW Avatar
    DW

    Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has admitted to sexual relationships with two House staffers:
    https://nypost.com/2026/07/16/us-news/sen-ruben-gallego-had-sexual-relationships-with-two-house-aides-sources-reveal-to-the-post/

    Like

  16. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Dickliss is an idiot. It’s for 2028

    https://x.com/cspan/status/2077787353574215709

    Like

  17. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Tragedy in sf bay. Deepest part of the bay/ right off of Alcatraz.

    https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/search-continues-near-alcatraz-after-pontoon-boat-capsizes-with-20-on-board/?fbclid=IwY2xjawTGB7pleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZA80MDk5NjI2MjMwODU2MDkAAR7CLB-Ug9O2k7AzM4jLPnGj_yPTyTuMIFagdrmm4VtPZ1xigphEZmQvA8BN9w_aem_tk1fku-p2yOHOy7UY-JPIA

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    Those are difficult waters to survive in, given the currents pushing everything hard out to sea. Why the escapees from the prison likely drowned.

    Like

  19. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    DW, respectfully I disagree. Respectfully.

    https://www.wtvy.com/content/news/Could-new-technology-provide-proof-that-brothers-did-indeed-escape-Alcatraz-567621541.html

    https://www.history.com/articles/alcatraz-escape-new-evidence-anglin-brothers

    https://abc30.com/post/new-leads-in-alcatraz-escapees-manhunt/1351556/

    Photograph purportedly showing Alcatraz escapees, John and Clarence Anglin, in Brazil, 1975. [599×374]
    byu/olemisscub inHistoryPorn

    Photograph purportedly showing Alcatraz escapees, John and Clarence Anglin, in Brazil, 1975. [599×374]
    byu/olemisscub inHistoryPorn

    Like

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    and i have read accounts that discredited the pictures

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    and a skilled swimmer agreed to try to swim from the island to the mainland in tidal conditions similar to the night of the escape, but he couldn’t do it. He became exhausted and got in the boat that was trailing him

    Like

  22. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    DW, the FBI Forensics lab applied their most updated analysis. Their conclusion-yep, the facial recognition revealed a 99.9% match or a perfect match.

    Believe what you will.

    I’ll leave you with this. A couple in investigations went down to Brazil to an area south of Sao Paulo and tried to match this picture, background, anthills, roadway etc…and then discovered it was a match. They then interviewed many locals-some of which said a couple ‘gringos’ rented some land in area about that time to farm but never traveled into the towns.

    Like

  23. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    In the lower shenanadoah valley, Jefferson and Berkeley Counties lay–rollong valley land tucked between the Blue Ridge Mountain to the east (sometimes this mountain is referred to as South Mountain) and North Mountain to the west, the first of the foothill mts. of the Alleghenies which rises about 300 feet higher than the valley floor.

    ●●●

    My home is near the Jefferson/Berkeley line and from our deck we can see some sections of North Mt. 20 some miles to the west that stretches southwest into VA.

    The smoke here from the Canada wildfires is heavy enough that we cannot see any of North Mountain.

    Between the smoke and high temperatures, I am pretty sure there will be no school here tomorrow.

    …that, plus it is the middle of July and the school year ended more than a month ago..

    ■■■

    Son in WISC said it is real smokey there, air quality was at 859 on a scale of 1000.

    Like

  24. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    It is smokey enough here that I am considering calling in and saying I will not be able to come to work on Friday.

    But then I remembered I have been retired for more than a decade…

    Like

  25. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Have a good trip to Alaska Bitter. That has always been on my list to visit sometime – San Juan Islands too

    Like

  26. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Nobody said you could “wave a magic wand” and fix the Iranian problem, Jason. I’ll give Trump credit for trying to fix it. I have a big problem with the execution of the fix. He started out fine. Six weeks after starting down the military path he paused and bought into the “you can make a deal with us if you’ll just pause the pressure” That’s what he did. Sure, he wanted a deal. Trouble is that in order to make a deal you have to have both parties on board with that objective. He failed to realize Iran has no intention of “making a deal”….and they sure as hell won’t if you quit using the stick. At that point they REALLY don’t have any incentive to deal. The MFers in charge of Iran are interested in one thing – survival and maintaining power. Once we lifted the military pressure they knew survival was theirs and then it was business as usual. No deal. Hell, even if there was one these bastards would break it, just like they did with the so called MOU.

    Liked by 1 person

  27. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Eric Daugherty

    @EricLDaugh

    ·

    UPDATE: CNN has JOINED ABC, NBC and CBS in REFUSING to air Donald Trump’s 9PM White House address — they’ll instead stream it elsewhere and “monitor” the speech for “news” in case they need to cut in “Experts” will be on standby to “analyze” it — meaning PANIC and try to debunk anything he says

    Liked by 1 person

  28. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Trump has taken a risk dealing with Iran at this time. He’s also taking another risk in delivering a speech that no major media outlet is going to air, and that will be mocked and criticized no matter what he divulges or says.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    based on the research, investigators concluded that the homemade inflatable raft made of raincoats would have fallen apart within minutes of the inmates entering the water. Then they were on their own in the dark, in the cold water and subject to the strong current. They would have expended energy quickly and drowned when they lacked the strength to stay up. Their bodies were either pushed to the bottom or floated out to sea.

    Like

  30. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Thanks, Jan. It will be interesting. Of course, it will be coastal Alaska. Not sure if we will ever get a trip to the interior.

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    if you had time you could rent a camper van and drive through the Brooks range all the way to the Arctic ocean…it’s quite scenic from what I can see on Google maps

    Like

  32. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    We’ll see if Trump wants to lose the 2026 midterms by focusing on the 2020 election.

    Like

  33. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Between all the lawsuits the Dems have primed denying the content of Trump’s speech, and the slew of vitriol being produced before a word has been uttered, it will be difficult to see what can be accomplished by Trump tonight.

    Liked by 1 person

  34. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Still running against Biden.

    Like

  35. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Deep State. Zzzzzzz

    Like

  36. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Personally, I think the Alcatraz escapees made it to shore, with the assistance of Bigfoot and space aliens in UFOs.

    And possibly with help from Adolph Hitler in the same U-boat he filed in from Europe to go to Argentina at the tail end of WW II.

    Like

  37. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Fled in….

    Like

  38. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Even if everything Trump says is true, the only people watching are those who already believe it.

    Like

  39. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    THE BAND SAW’S SAW BAND

    ●●●●●

    In the wood workshop, the BAND saw thought it would be a good idea to form a “band saw band” and play down at the beach. And maybe even go on a boat into the sea and perform.

    But he was the ONLY BAND saw, so he realized he would have to recruit OTHER various kinds of saws that were hanging around in the workshop to join his band. One saw said he wondered if people would go see a saw band by the sea. Or see a sea saw band afloat on a boat. Especially sea saws that did not know a C from a G minor or F flat.

    They, of course, decided to name the band “The SEA SAWS.” So they formed the band and practiced and the BAND SAW saw that the future Sea Saws learned to see C notes (and other notes) and identify them. Perhaps people would pay them with “C notes” ( hundred dollar bills).

    There soon developed problems.

    * First, the lead saw singer was the HACK saw, and he sure was a HACK! * While the JAMB saw was always ready to jam, the JIG saw decided he would rather dance a jig than play the tunes. The JIGSAW became a puzzle.

    * The CHAIN saw only wanted to play songs that had the word chain in them (Chain Of Fools, Working On the Chain Gang, Unchained Melody, etc.).

    * The BONE saw thought and acted like he was bad to the bone. * The CROSS CUT saw got cross and cut others.

    * The COPING saw just could NOT cope. At all.

    * The COMPASS saw, lost his way.

    * The DRYWALL saw got into the liquor and got very wet…and tried to peek through the KEYHOLE saw.

    * The TABLE saw refused to get off the table.

    * The BOW saw quickly sawed through his violin.

    * The PRUNING saw acted like a prune.

    * The RECIPROCATING saw would not stop giving compliments to people who complimented him, because after all he WAS a reciprocating saw.

    * The FRET saw fretted WAY too much.

    * The CIRCULAR saw kept circling the TABLE saw.

    * The COLLAPSABLE saw did just that, when he leard the CAMPING sawwent camping instead of showing up for practice.

    •••••••••••

    It got so depressing that the BAND SAW moved from

    Nassau to

    Chickasaw to

    Arkansas.

    Like

  40. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    Don’t foget Waukesaw, Wisconsin and Misawaki, Indiana.

    Liked by 1 person

  41. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Bitter,

    Some good friends of ours are on the NW coast ow and ready to go on an Alaska cruise leaving Sat or Sunday from either Seasttle ir Va couver, I think.

    Three WV former teacher friends ( Nancy, Bett and Laura) who taught with my wife and adore her, plus Laura’s husband Keith who is a retired veterinarian and a super nice guy and extremely outgoing and funny-Keith Berkeley.

    We just had them all to one of our soirees here at the house.

    Good friends.

    if they are on the same cruise as you and Mrs. Bitter, that would be a hoot. Ask around for who is on board from WV….

    Like

  42. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Walt – We leave from Seattle. I will ask if anybody know an old guy chained to his fence unless he is setting up a soirée.

    Liked by 1 person

  43. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The Brazil accounts and the “pictures” have been debunked many times, just like the “grassy knoll” shooter BS.

    All real evidence says the Alcatraz escapees died in the attempt, just like DB Cooper.

    Like

  44. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    6 kitchens, 24 bathrooms.

    Makes sense, when you have that many kitchens to have a lot of bathrooms.

    Like

  45. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Those rich Philly lawyers fly off to Alaska while us deplorables here are left to be slowly smoked alive.

    Liked by 1 person

  46. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    the freepassers are upset about this.

    https://x.com/KatieMiller/status/2078075399628530056

    Like

  47. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    We need the ccp to cheat in our elections.

    -freepasser

    Like

  48. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    We need the ccp to cheat in our elections.

    Said by nobody at HHR.

    Like

  49. DW Avatar
    DW

    new thread

    Like

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