Baris says Collins in Georgia is toast as well as Collins in Maine. He also says Cooper in NC will breeze through in NC. Blames most of it on Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. It’s a reoccurring theme with him. If you look at Baris’ tweets you’ll want to slash your wrists if you are a Republican. Doom and gloom 24/7.
Phil, stop listening to Baris. He lost all credibility when he was caught propping up his buddy Massie, claiming it was tied, repeatedly claiming it, even up to the day before Massie got blown out by 10.
Collins in Georgia is not toast, that race will be close, though the incumbent Ossoff has the edge. Cooper will win, not because of Trump but because he is a popular two-term governor. Even the Eeyores at RRH Elections say Collins in Maine is now the favorite despite Platner dropping out.
Even Baris’ own generic ballot poll recently showed the GOP gaining. But beyond the generic ballot, we have to remember that Democrat anger is going to be most highly concentrated in non-competitive deep blue districts. But they still get only one vote on election day. The key to all this is checking the polls of individual house or senate races, as together they represent many more data points, and they are concentrated on the races that will make the difference.
These polls show a competitive election this fall, with a slight edge to the GOP. You can click on the House Forecast above and check out all those polls easily.
One benefit of California leaving us with only 4 seats, plus one that could go either way, is that we won’t have to wait for a month to know who controls the house. The GOP redistricting to offset California comes from states that count their votes on election night.
“Illinois State Rep. Carol Ammons, (D-Urbana), has been indicted by a federal grand jury on multiple felony charges, including wire fraud, making false statements and conspiracy to obstruct justice, according to an indictment unsealed this week. Her husband, Champaign County Clerk Aaron Ammons, was also charged in the case.”
We have a shot at a fifth California seat, CA-22, but I am not counting on it, and its on the blue side of the ledger in the HHR house forecast.
By the way, I consider this house forecast as belonging to all of us. If any of you have wisdom on the data there, or polling I missed, I will incorporate as appropriate.
In fact, I could use your help. Tina checks these now and then, but there are two X accounts where polls are posted that often are not posted anywhere else:
They used to just let anyone see what’s there, but X locked it down so you cannot see anything unless you create an account and I don’t want to do that. So if any of you see polls on these pages, please post them here.
You can be anything you want to be had some drawbacks. The little blind boy could not be an airline pilot when he grew to adulthood, despite that being his heart’s desire. Same with the boy who grew up to be a6 foot tall 98 pound man whi wanted to be a champion summo wrestler, or the boy who became a 300 pound man who wanted to be a professional jockey and ride horses.
●●●●
Morph forward to present times.
Youth being taught they could BE anything they wanted to be has become you can BELIEVE anything you want to.
Lots of big problems with that. Lots of people believe things that simply fly in the face of science, logic, natural laws, and mountains of facts
–boys beleiving they are females
–people believing that having quotas of X number of employees must be women or Black does not discriminate against those who are not women or Black
–people believing that the world is flat and nobody ever landed on the moon.
–people believing Antifa is a righteous pro democracy anti fascist group that does not use all the same fascist tactics who their name say they oppose
–people believing O.J. Simpson was innocent and his being arrested and tried for the double murders was all because of racism
–people believing that Charlie Kirk was more evil than Atilla the Hun, Stalin, Mao Tse Tung, and Hitler all rolled into one.
–people believing that the guy being tried for Charlie Kirk’s murder is innocent, as was Lee Harvey Oswald and every assassin you can name in the last 60 years.
–people believing that all illegal immigrants are imbues with 100% of American values, have never committed any crimes here or in their home country
–people who believe that ever penny of money spend by USAID went to laudable and noble goals of helping people in foreign lands.
–people who believe George Floyd’s was a saintly soul and his death justified months of riots, death and destruction throughout the U.S.
–people believing they are “sovereign citizens ” who do not have to abide by the laws the rest of us must follow in the U.S.
–people believing if they get pulled over the police for traffic violations that they can dictate and run everything that happens during their police stop.
–people believing that it is ok if a candidate from THEIR political party does XYZ, but if someone fro. The other party does same thing they they ought to be thrown out of office or off the ballot.
–people who believe that is they fail to get what they want then it is all due to racism and sexism.
–People who refuse to believe the richest 1% in U.S. pay 40% of U.S. income taxes and richest 10% pay 70% of all income taxes in U.S.
–people who believe that everything Trump and Trump admin)does only be fits Trump.
–people who believe the Muslim fundamentalist countries are champions of women rights, LBGTQ rights and human rights in general.
–people who believe they are proud of their county only when the white house is occupied by someone of their own party and same for Congess.
–people who believe that communist and socialist soccer loving countries are the best kinds of government that is best for their citizens.
And the list can go on and on as to what people BELEIVE to be true that is absolutely NOT true…
…like people BELIEVING they are cats, or that the can become invisible to others if they just blink and snap their fingers, or believing they are sane when they are not..
…or BELIEVING that universal mail in ballots makes a representative democracy stronger and helps reduce election fraud…
–many people believe everything is a conspiracy and the government never tells the truth about anything.
●●●●
My theory is that social media has played a big part in causing so many people to beleive so many things that are not true. Because people think if they see a post or a video about so.ething, then It is true.
If things go south here on the U.S. and unbearably off the rails, I propose HHR members consider relocating to Bir Taril. It is a strip of land between Egypt and Sudan that neither country claims.
France is the best team in the tournament. Loaded with stars AND great collective play.
But logic does not always prevail in soccer, so no guarantees they will win the cup.
Last WC final was France vs. Argentina, Argentina won the penalty shootout after a crazy 3-3 draw where both teams scored in overtime and Messi and Mbappe scored 5 goals between them in the game.
Could easily happen again.
Current odds
France 39%
Argentina 18%
Spain 16%
England 16%
Norway 6%
Belgium 2%
Switzerland 2%
Spain and Belgium play today. Belgium played a good game against the US.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
51 responses to “Ossoff up Four in Georgia”
First
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Surprised it’s this close.
Baris says Collins in Georgia is toast as well as Collins in Maine. He also says Cooper in NC will breeze through in NC. Blames most of it on Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. It’s a reoccurring theme with him. If you look at Baris’ tweets you’ll want to slash your wrists if you are a Republican. Doom and gloom 24/7.
LikeLike
Phil, stop listening to Baris. He lost all credibility when he was caught propping up his buddy Massie, claiming it was tied, repeatedly claiming it, even up to the day before Massie got blown out by 10.
Collins in Georgia is not toast, that race will be close, though the incumbent Ossoff has the edge. Cooper will win, not because of Trump but because he is a popular two-term governor. Even the Eeyores at RRH Elections say Collins in Maine is now the favorite despite Platner dropping out.
LikeLike
Even Baris’ own generic ballot poll recently showed the GOP gaining. But beyond the generic ballot, we have to remember that Democrat anger is going to be most highly concentrated in non-competitive deep blue districts. But they still get only one vote on election day. The key to all this is checking the polls of individual house or senate races, as together they represent many more data points, and they are concentrated on the races that will make the difference.
These polls show a competitive election this fall, with a slight edge to the GOP. You can click on the House Forecast above and check out all those polls easily.
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“Democratic anger is going to be most highly concentrated in non-competitive deep blue districts”
This is an excellent point and one I hadn’t thought of.
LikeLiked by 1 person
@NolteNC
·
Graham Platner should have identified as an illegal alien. Then Democrats and CNN wouldn’t care about all the raping.
LikeLiked by 1 person
One benefit of California leaving us with only 4 seats, plus one that could go either way, is that we won’t have to wait for a month to know who controls the house. The GOP redistricting to offset California comes from states that count their votes on election night.
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Future Democrat Presidential pardon fodder:
“Illinois State Rep. Carol Ammons, (D-Urbana), has been indicted by a federal grand jury on multiple felony charges, including wire fraud, making false statements and conspiracy to obstruct justice, according to an indictment unsealed this week. Her husband, Champaign County Clerk Aaron Ammons, was also charged in the case.”
https://whporadio.com/whpo-blog/923516/illinois-state-rep-carol-ammons-indicted-on-federal-fraud-obstruction-charges
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Yes, we won’t need have to wait five weeks to find out who controls the House. We know we are only getting four seats out of California.
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We have a shot at a fifth California seat, CA-22, but I am not counting on it, and its on the blue side of the ledger in the HHR house forecast.
By the way, I consider this house forecast as belonging to all of us. If any of you have wisdom on the data there, or polling I missed, I will incorporate as appropriate.
LikeLike
In fact, I could use your help. Tina checks these now and then, but there are two X accounts where polls are posted that often are not posted anywhere else:
https://x.com/PollTracker2024
https://x.com/IAPolls2022
They used to just let anyone see what’s there, but X locked it down so you cannot see anything unless you create an account and I don’t want to do that. So if any of you see polls on these pages, please post them here.
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Platner goes down fighting, no “team player” BS for him.
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France and Morocco at 4 PM.
BIG game, if France does not win it will be a major upset.
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Morocco far from an easy out. Will be shocked if France blows them out.
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From RRH Elections:
MAINE POLL – Senate (commissioned by a pro-Shah outside Group)
Nirav Shah: 47% Susan Collins: 46%
Susan Collins: 48% Troy Jackson: 47%
Susan Collins: 47% Shenna Bellows: 47%
ZA Research | 7/7-8 | 988 LV
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2075283591584432365
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Morocco unbeaten in last 34 international matches.
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No, those games were not against France.
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Flash flooding in Intercourse and Blue Ball if anyone heading in that direction.
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Did Blue Ball’s intercourse cause the flash flooding? The village of Burn of Twatt in Scotland wants to know.
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France off to quick start with two shots on goal in just first four minutes.
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BRIDGE TODAY
crappy score in morning 3 rounds before lunch totalling 1440 points.
2 rounds after lunch totaling 3330 points. For a day total of 4770 points. Top score a.ong outher players was 4820.
So I came in second and won $3. Moral…don’t ever count me out.
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Hyundai makes a model of car called the Genesis.
I think they are going to name other models after the books of the Bible.
My suggestions are other .odels named
–Lamentation
–Job
–Jonah ( “a whale of a car”)
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IN THE 1980’s parents raided their kids with the belief and told their kids they could BE anyrhing they wanted to be when they grew up.
LikeLiked by 1 person
https://x.com/RealCandaceO/status/2075284117189517472
Some one needs to take her meds. I short, she claims a gubment conspiracy and the jooz did it.
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0 – 0 at halftime, France 13 shots, 4 on goal, Morocco 1 shot, none on goal.
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You can be anything you want to be had some drawbacks. The little blind boy could not be an airline pilot when he grew to adulthood, despite that being his heart’s desire. Same with the boy who grew up to be a6 foot tall 98 pound man whi wanted to be a champion summo wrestler, or the boy who became a 300 pound man who wanted to be a professional jockey and ride horses.
●●●●
Morph forward to present times.
Youth being taught they could BE anything they wanted to be has become you can BELIEVE anything you want to.
Lots of big problems with that. Lots of people believe things that simply fly in the face of science, logic, natural laws, and mountains of facts
–boys beleiving they are females
–people believing that having quotas of X number of employees must be women or Black does not discriminate against those who are not women or Black
–people believing that the world is flat and nobody ever landed on the moon.
–people believing Antifa is a righteous pro democracy anti fascist group that does not use all the same fascist tactics who their name say they oppose
–people believing O.J. Simpson was innocent and his being arrested and tried for the double murders was all because of racism
–people believing that Charlie Kirk was more evil than Atilla the Hun, Stalin, Mao Tse Tung, and Hitler all rolled into one.
–people believing that the guy being tried for Charlie Kirk’s murder is innocent, as was Lee Harvey Oswald and every assassin you can name in the last 60 years.
–people believing that all illegal immigrants are imbues with 100% of American values, have never committed any crimes here or in their home country
–people who believe that ever penny of money spend by USAID went to laudable and noble goals of helping people in foreign lands.
–people who believe George Floyd’s was a saintly soul and his death justified months of riots, death and destruction throughout the U.S.
–people believing they are “sovereign citizens ” who do not have to abide by the laws the rest of us must follow in the U.S.
–people believing if they get pulled over the police for traffic violations that they can dictate and run everything that happens during their police stop.
–people believing that it is ok if a candidate from THEIR political party does XYZ, but if someone fro. The other party does same thing they they ought to be thrown out of office or off the ballot.
–people who believe that is they fail to get what they want then it is all due to racism and sexism.
–People who refuse to believe the richest 1% in U.S. pay 40% of U.S. income taxes and richest 10% pay 70% of all income taxes in U.S.
–people who believe that everything Trump and Trump admin)does only be fits Trump.
–people who believe the Muslim fundamentalist countries are champions of women rights, LBGTQ rights and human rights in general.
–people who believe they are proud of their county only when the white house is occupied by someone of their own party and same for Congess.
–people who believe that communist and socialist soccer loving countries are the best kinds of government that is best for their citizens.
LikeLike
And the list can go on and on as to what people BELEIVE to be true that is absolutely NOT true…
…like people BELIEVING they are cats, or that the can become invisible to others if they just blink and snap their fingers, or believing they are sane when they are not..
…or BELIEVING that universal mail in ballots makes a representative democracy stronger and helps reduce election fraud…
LikeLike
France scored, game essentially over.
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now its really over….2-0
Morocco didn’t play up to their potential as a spoiler, now France looking like a juggernaut
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7 teams left, 6 from Europe and Argentina
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the Nazi has not formally withdraw from the race. He is still in it and he may bot withdraw officially.
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The Nazis replacement maybe just as bad. He allegedly threw a bottle at a woman and is being looked at for fraud.
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Platner is saying he’s not exiting the race until the last day – Monday July 13.
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so if he calls in sick on Monday, then he can mail it in and they can backdate the stamp as needed
LikeLiked by 1 person
Joe Biden’s wife just a nounced that Joe has filed papers to replace Platner in .aine senate race.
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Mercury retrograde is in full swing…
You know what that means….
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Just make the link xcancel if you don’t have an X account
https://xcancel.com/PollTracker2024
https://xcancel.com/IAPolls2022
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It is not fair that 6 of the 7 teams left in suckcor playoffs are from white, racist, colonial imperialist Europe.
Besides, the Europeam countries are all richer than most if the countries of Asia, Africa andatin America.
there should now be just one from every continent.
I hope the UN gets involved…
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I think that when Mercury is in full swing retrograde that means that the frigging little teen tiny ants will invade Walt’s kitchen counters.
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ADDENDUM
–many people believe everything is a conspiracy and the government never tells the truth about anything.
●●●●
My theory is that social media has played a big part in causing so many people to beleive so many things that are not true. Because people think if they see a post or a video about so.ething, then It is true.
They use no critical thinking skills.
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Did i ever tell you about another theory I have that Christianity, free enterprise system and represe tstive democracy all go hand?
Why? Because all three empjljasise the importa t of the individual.
With God.
In the economy and determining what gets produced (Adam Smith’s invisible hand).
And the importance of each voter a d power of each vote
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Here, 60 years ago, we used to get 35 inches if precipitation a year. In the last 5 or 10 we have been averaging about 30 inches of precip. per yr.
From July 4 to today we have gotten between 6 and 7 inches of rain at our house.
Which is about 20% of our ANNUAL precip. falling in just one week in July.
Still, about 1/3 of my lawn is still brown….
Usually August is dyest month and July is Second driest month.
Maybe MERCURY in full retrograde…?
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If things go south here on the U.S. and unbearably off the rails, I propose HHR members consider relocating to Bir Taril. It is a strip of land between Egypt and Sudan that neither country claims.
But it might be too hot there for me…
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I guess everyone is either watching sokker or off to bed….sigh…
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Sorry, Walt. I was trying to come up with a comment about rain and your age but only had a joke about Noah’s Ark. You deserve better.
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We could always join Amoral Scumbag in Bogo Pogo…
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France is the best team in the tournament. Loaded with stars AND great collective play.
But logic does not always prevail in soccer, so no guarantees they will win the cup.
Last WC final was France vs. Argentina, Argentina won the penalty shootout after a crazy 3-3 draw where both teams scored in overtime and Messi and Mbappe scored 5 goals between them in the game.
Could easily happen again.
Current odds
France 39%
Argentina 18%
Spain 16%
England 16%
Norway 6%
Belgium 2%
Switzerland 2%
Spain and Belgium play today. Belgium played a good game against the US.
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My theory is that social media has played a big part in causing so many people to beleive so many things that are not true.”
I guess Tina has an excuse….
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Walt that was an excellent post on the things people believe in…
LikeLiked by 1 person
No, I am not trying to butter Walt up so I get invited to a soirée.
GFYs.
LikeLiked by 1 person
new thread
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