The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

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Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

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Sudden Burst in Polling

DW

FOX News (6/23 – 6/27; 1003 RV; 3.0 MoE) gives the lead to Collins in Maine:

Platner 47, Collins 50

University of New Hampshire shows a tightening race for senate:

Pappas 47, Sununu 44

Saint Anselm College shows a bigger lead for Pappas

Pappas 47, Sununu 41

A2 Insights gives a lead to Talarico in Texas:

Talarico 48, Paxton 46

Grayhouse polled Montana:

Bankhead 25, Alme 41

Univ. of New Hampshire also polled Rhode Island:

Reed 52, McKay 35%

Univ. of New Hampshire also polled Massachusetts:

Markey 50, Deaton 34

And finally, Siena College of Alaska:

Peltola 45, Sullivan 47

Siena College polled Iowa:

Turek 46, Hinson 48

Siena College polled North Carolina:

Cooper 50, Whatley 43

Siena College polled Ohio:

Brown 47, Husted 50

82 responses to “Sudden Burst in Polling”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    My World Cup predictions yesterday were pretty good:

    Prediction: France over Sweden 4-0, and it turned out 3-0

    Prediction: Norway over Ivory coast in penalty shootout, but turned out they won 2-1.

    Prediction: Mexico 2-0 over Ecuador, and that was the exact result, 2-0.

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    Today’s prediction:

    England 3-0 over Congo

    Belgium 2-0 over Senegal

    USA 2-1 over Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Tougher game for the USA given they have to play two countries at once.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    And now to comment on these polls, overall its encouraging, given Fox News and NY Times/Siena have always had a pretty stiff blue skew to them.

    Like

  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    Siena also polled the Alaska house race, which most pundits put down as Likely R:

    Begich (R)* 51%, Schultz (D) 39%

    Like

  6. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Watched the Dodgers/A’s game last night. Just something wrong with the two-time WS champions, let alone any other major league team, having to play in a minor league ballpark that seats 10,000 in West Sacramento.

    Ok for spring training but not the regular season.

    And teams have been doing this going on the second year. And here’s the kicker-the A’s will be doing this for another year. The Las Vegas Ballpark won’t be ready until the 2028 season.

    Like

  7. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    KalshiPolitics

    ·

    2h

    BREAKING: Republicans have a 59% chance to hold the Senate — their highest point since Mar. 1

    Liked by 1 person

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    One more point about today’s polls. If this is what Fox News and Siena/NY Times is coming up with, then it sure stands to reason that Baris is garbage. He was caught cheerleading for Massie, and is no longer to be trusted. I am done with him. If his generic ballot Dem +9 is correct, then Siena/NY Times and Fox News would have Democrats leading all of those races above.

    Like

  9. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  10. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 UPDATE: Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas just delivered this TRUTH NUKE in upholding state bans on boys in girls’ sports — the transgender cult is LIVID “Men and boys with gender dysphoria are NOT women or girls, even if they believe that they are.” “Sex is an immutable biological characteristic. It is binary and man and woman, boy and girl are the terms that correspond to adults and children of each sex.” “To use language to obscure reality, to show indifference regarding the truth, is to LIE to the public and cease to treat our fellow citizens as equals.”

    Liked by 1 person

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    my prediction on England vs Congo already busted….Congo with early 1-0 lead

    Like

  12. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    More regarding yesterday’s unfortunate birthright decision:

    Image

    Like

  13. DW Avatar
    DW

    Whenever Cash Cow appears in the daily comic, Walt seems to be out. Coincidence or conspirasy?

    Liked by 1 person

  14. DW Avatar
    DW

    England down 1-0 at halftime. Congo only one shot on goal, and it went in.

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    You better hope that SCOTUS never reviews the 2d Amendment the way you wanted it to review the 14th Amendment.

    Like

  16. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15945565/masked-pair-scale-empire-state-building-banner.html

    I hate heights. This will never be me. Both can be true.

    Like

  17. DW Avatar
    DW

    so far it seems Congo came to play. England came to prep for their next game or some other purpose.

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    still 1-0 and Congo with still just that one shot on goal.

    Like

  19. DW Avatar
    DW

    and England finally scores

    Like

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    and England up 2-1

    Like

  21. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  22. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    A name is evolving for Amy Barrett because of her liberal ruling on the14th amendment —-> “Benedict Barrett.”

    Like

  23. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    BTW Bitter, your desperation in trying to link an undesirable interpretation of the 2nd amendment, to what was handed down on the 14th amendment by Roberts and Barrett, is a reach too far and ludicrous.

    Like

  24. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Bob Bosnia attacked Olivia O’Govinia and twisted her arm behind her back. The newspaper headline read

    Bosnia Hurts O’Govinia

    Like

  25. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Lord Kane comes through for the Brits!

    Like

  26. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    BTW Bitter, your desperation in trying to link an undesirable interpretation of the 2nd amendment, to what was handed down on the 14th amendment by Roberts and Barrett, is a reach too far and ludicrous.”

    Hello?

    janzam is a complete moron.

    Bitter makes an excellent point (of course, I had already made it earlier).

    The 14th Amendment says if you are born on American soil you are American, no ifs, ands or buts.

    Now, the argument being made is that the Founders could not have foreseen birth tourism and China flights, etc. so let’s pretend the 14th Amendment doesn’t say what it says.

    EXACT same with the 2nd Amendment.

    The argument being made by the gun grabbers is that the Founders only knew muskets, they could not have foreseen AR-15’s and modern weapons. So let’s pretend the 2nd Amendment doesn’t say the right to bear and keep arms shall not be infringed.

    Like

  27. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    to what was handed down on the 14th amendment by Roberts and Barrett,”

    And Kavanaugh, the vote was 6-3.

    What was handed down was an affirmation of the 14th Amendment, not some politically expedient interpretation of it.

    In fact, Alito and Thomas admit as much. They claim the clause “did not intend blah blah blah”.

    Since I wasn’t in the room when they wrote this, I think I will accept what is actually written, not the “intent”

    All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

    Like

  28. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    of her liberal ruling on the14th amendment”

    LIberal ruling?

    LOL

    How about her CONSERVATIVE ruling upholding the Constitution?

    Like

  29. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    The following is Victor Davis Hanson’s commentary on the Birthright ruling:

    ”WHY THIS DECISION IS SO BAD The fact that women on the court refused to abide by the Constitution regarding the 14th amendment is not unexpected or even the worst thing about this. Mark Levin was concerned that they’d use this as an opportunity to CREATE something new that’s not there, and that’s exactly what happened.

    Justice Thomas explained it accurately and concisely: “I am not sure that today’s opinion will stand the test of time. The Citizenship Clause added greatly to the dignity and glory of American citizenship. Today’s opinion devalues that citizenship.”

    Justice Alito also chimed in and called the ruling, “one of the most important decisions”, in the court’s history and, “a serious mistake”, in his dissenting opinion.

    Among other key parts of Thomas’ 91 page dissent include: “The Citizenship Clause was consistently interpreted not to apply to the children of foreign temporary visitors, who were by definition not domiciled in the United States. Regardless of administration or party, the Federal Government for decades after ratification regularly denied claims to citizenship by children who were born in the United States but not domiciled here.” The fact that Congress felt the need to pass additional legislation to grant citizenship to Native Americans a couple decades after the 14 amendment was penned speaks volumes. Why would they need to do that if the 14th covered all situations and circumstances? The answer is, because it didn’t.

    But just as the commerce clause has been routinely abused, the same is true of this. Justice Thomas also argued that the majority got its history wrong when it concluded that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” should be understood in the context of the “feudal” principle of allegiance in English common law, which was then codified as “not subject to any foreign power” in the Civil Rights Act. He also contended the precedent established in the landmark 1898 Wong Kim Ark ruling, which was about long term legal non-citizen residents, should not extend to the children of foreign temporary visitors to the U.S.

    “The Court today takes the extraordinary step of holding facially unconstitutional the President’s Order excluding from citizenship the children of foreign temporary visitors and illegal aliens. In doing so, the Court adds to the sad history of the Fourteenth Amendment, which was designed and understood to secure equal rights for the freed blacks but has instead been repurposed for political projects that the Reconstruction Congress did not support.” It’s this last part that is the most damning. They codified misinterpretation, exactly what Levin and many others feared. This will increase incentive for the “birth tourism” practice and other nefarious schemes. Now it will take something a bit more to undo the damage done here.”

    Like

  30. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Amend the Constitution. Problem solved.

    Like

  31. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I have always supported the 2d Amendment as interpreted. Your way of thinking about the 14th would gut the 2d.

    Like

  32. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    > “Benedict Barrett.”

    The Cult loves stupid nicknames. Where was the outrage when she joins with the other conservatives on abortion, guns, Presidential powers, trans, religion, trans, etc.?

    Like

  33. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Question. Was the ‘birth right’ SC vote 5-4 or 6-3?

    Like

  34. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    It was 6-3 with concurrences.

    Like

  35. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Barrett compared herself to a Scalia-type jurist. She has not lived up to that comparison. Hence, the growing distrust and animosity over her rulings, which oftentimes seem more liberal-based than conservative. In the case of her birthright decision most of the praise arises from liberal quarters (including bitter & Jason). Whereas the criticisms are generated from conservatives (including the most conservatively reliable jurists, Thomas and Alito).

    Like

  36. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Jan- Let’s say you got your dream. What is the remedy? Millions of people immediately stripped of citizenship? Some critics have said it would not be retroactive. Why not? Go big or go home. Otherwise, a person born the day before the Decision would be a citizen and a person born yesterday would not be a citizen.

    By the way, you never explained why you deserve to be a citizen other than being born where your parents were located. At least Jason had to take a test and an oath.

    Like

  37. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Looks like the Dodgers are ready to put the NL West to bed. Both the second place Padres and third place Diamondbacks are at least a dozen games back and the Padres are losing at the moment to the Cubs, 15-3.

    Like

  38. DW Avatar
    DW

    Senegal up 1-0 over Belgium at the half

    Like

  39. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Queque the free passers

    @TonerousHyus

    ·

    Been interesting how the MoU was a full surrender by the U.S. on this website 2 weeks ago but now pro Iranian regime toadies on here are now convinced Iran got taken for a complete ride by the U.S.

    Like

  40. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    The birthright ruling was 5-1-3. Kavanaugh, was the 1, siding with the majority because of a federal law that makes those children citizens. But he joined the dissenters in finding that Trump’s order does not violate the Constitution. His view would enable a future Congress to change the law to restrict birthright citizenship.

    I support citizenship thru the proper channels of non-citizens applying for it eventually taking a test, and going to a hearing where they pledge allegiance to this country. I’ve helped 3 people, including becoming a sponsor, helping them achieve the status of becoming an American citizen. Have you done this? What we have now is an exploitation of our immigration system which is hurting our country more than helping it. Furthermore, I am not for mass deportation (including those living here many years), am against any retroactive application if birthright citizenship was struck down, and support streamlining the process of legally obtaining citizenship.

    Like

  41. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    The writers of the 14th Amendment were trying to guarantee citizenship for newly freed black slaves. They didn’t anticipate millions of illegal aliens sneaking across the border and dropping anchor babies. I think we can all agree on that. Unfortunately, the way the Amendment was written makes amending the Constitution the only way to remedy this oversight. As a practical solution we all know that will never be a real option since it takes 2/3 of both the House and Senate to propose the amendment and then 3/4 of states to ratify. You could get a majority of the states to ratify but never 3/4 of them since there are 40% of the states that are blue. Democrats crave power and aren’t about to close a loophole that grants them millions of future Democratic voters. The country is f*cked. Just a matter of time before we become a socialist hellhole. Once Democrats grab control of congress and the presidency, the Senate filibuster will be abolished – four new Democratic Senators from the new states of DC and Puerto Rica plus a packed Supreme Court and the country as we know it will be gone anyway – perhaps as early as 2028.

    Time to embrace the horror.

    Like

  42. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Amend the Constitution. Problem solved.”

    Exactly.

    The problem with Thomas and Alito’s argument is that it focuses on the “bad things” that will or could happen with the decision, pretty much ignoring the fact this is the interpretation of the last 150 years.

    Neither of them explain why the wording of the Constitution should be ignored due to current political considerations.

    Thomas tries somewhat by coming up with a novel interpretation of “jurisdiction thereof” but he is grasping at straws there. This is akin to the liberals claiming that “a well regulated militia…….” means only a militia can have arms, when it is exactly the opposite, the fact the militia is necessary is the reason people should keep and bear arms.

    Like

  43. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    om liberal quarters (including bitter & Jason).”

    Hey Bitter, we are liberals.

    I will share the truckload of points 60-40.

    Like

  44. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    It might be news to Janzam, but upholding the Constitution is a very CONSERVATIVE position.

    Like

  45. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Phil is right. Birthright citizenship is the least of our problems.

    Like

  46. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The birthright ruling was 5-1-3.”:

    LOL

    Janzam will be hard to beat for HHR Clown of the Year.

    There are no ties in SCOTUS justice vote. The ruling was 6-3.

    Justices are free to comment as they wish on the decision. They often only concur in part or say things like “I would have supported this IF such and such”, or “I would have denied this had this or that happened”.

    Like

  47. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am surprised Gorsuch sided with Thomas and Alito.

    Did he write anything, I would like to read his reasoning.

    Like

  48. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    hat we have now is an exploitation of our immigration system which is hurting our country more than helping it.”

    So that justifies trampling on the Constitution?

    Bitter has it right. The way to change the Constitution is to amend it, not violate it.

    Like

  49. DW Avatar
    DW

    amending will never happen, so only solution is to do what Trump is doing now, not let anyone in. And if a woman wants in as a tourist from China, 9 months pregnant, deny her entry.

    Like

  50. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    And if a woman wants in as a tourist from China, 9 months pregnant, deny her entry.”

    Fine with me.

    Trump has the power to do that.

    He doesn’t have the power to change the Constitution or ignore it.

    Like

  51. DW Avatar
    DW

    Senegal was leading Belgium 2-0 in the 86th minute, the stupid win probability had Belgium down to 1% and suddenly they scored two goals to tie at 2. These win probability things on every sports app is stupid. Particularly so for low scoring games like soccer.

    Like

  52. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Belgium almost scored again. Crazy.

    Like

  53. DW Avatar
    DW

    its the baseball equivalent of giving up 7 runs in the bottom of the ninth to send the game to extra innings

    no way Senegal recovers to win

    Like

  54. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Could go to penalty shootout.

    Like

  55. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Penalty for Belgium

    Could win outright if they make it.

    Like

  56. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Senegal player lying down on the penalty spot.

    Like

  57. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    3-2 Belgium but some minutes left.

    Like

  58. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    God is Belgian.

    Like

  59. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    no way Senegal recovers to win”

    Hey DW, what is your pick for the 5th race at Pimlico?

    Like

  60. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    now pro Iranian regime toadies on here

    Name them, Tina. I was pissed Trump did not go far enough and destroy more of Iran’s ability to wage war.

    Like

  61. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Hey Bitter, we are liberals.

    It had to happen eventually. Tina is the only conservative left. Just ask Tina.

    Like

  62. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Morning Consultation has the Ds plus 4 in the generic.

    Like

  63. DW Avatar
    DW

    USA dominant in the time of possession, but no shots on goal yet

    Like

  64. DW Avatar
    DW

    USA scored just before half time

    Like

  65. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Tina is the only conservative left. Just ask Tina.”

    Can she trust herself?

    Like

  66. DW Avatar
    DW

    USA goal was a broken play, looked like Mark Johnson’s 2nd hockey goal against the Soviets in 1980 miracle on ice

    Like

  67. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I watched 3 minutes of soccer. It’s just not my thing.

    Like

  68. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Great win but we will miss Balogun.

    He did not deserve a red card, he jumped for the ball and came down on the Bosnian player’s ankle, but not intentional.

    Like

  69. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Arguably Folarin Balogun is the best US player, not as famous as Christian Pulisic but Pulisic has only played 2 games.

    Like

  70. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Tillman’s goal was sensational. He has German citizenship, he is good enough could also play for Germany. He played for Germany in their U21 (under 21) team but in 2022 decided to switch to the US team, our gain their loss.

    Liked by 1 person

  71. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Has the Cult demanded that the German player be kicked off the U.S. team?

    Like

  72. Tina's SCOTUS Avatar
    Tina’s SCOTUS

    Folarin Balogun was literally an anchor baby.

    Liked by 1 person

  73. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    And now Tina wants a different soccer player kicked off the US team.

    Like

  74. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Happy real Independence Day! The Declaration of Independence was a press release!

    Like

  75. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Poor Freepassers, oil below $67.

    dlacalle_IA

    ·

    The oil price slump has been faster and deeper than consensus estimated. Brent and WTI are now below the end of February levels. Why? Because the rise was mostly a geopolitical risk premium in spot prices, not a consequence of structurally tighter supply. via Bloomberg

    Like

  76. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Folarin Balogun was literally an anchor baby”

    Zzzzzz…

    Only xenophobic morons care.

    He is an American citizen with exactly the same rights you have.

    Deal with it!

    Like

  77. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The true story is that Balogun’s parents had no intention of having a baby in the US. They were legal residents in the UK and actually had a flight booked back from a NY visit when his mother was 7 months pregnant.

    It was the airline staff that did not allow her on the plane and forced her to return from the airport.

    Like

  78. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Some of the US players have Hispanic names.

    Does Tina want them banned from the team too?

    Maybe only allow descendants from the Mayflower to play?

    Like

  79. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Poor Freepassers, oil below $67.”

    The freepassers are for higher priced oil?

    Shame on them!

    Like

  80. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina should name the posters who want higher oil prices or STFU.

    Like

  81. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Some of the US players have Hispanic names.

    Another post from the La Raza Pimp.*

    *Second best name after Philly A-holes.

    Like

  82. DW Avatar
    DW

    New Thread

    Like

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