Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
93 responses to “Election Night Thread”
I fear its going to be an early night. I hope not.
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DW, you’ll always be welcome in Florida. We have weather that can kill you but everything else is pretty nice. More importantly, we don’t have an AG that wants to put 2 bullets in your head.
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Weather will always matter more to me than politics. I want 4 seasons.
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DD called the Va governors race. Drat wins,
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The wine chicks.
Eric Daugherty
BREAKING: Pro-killing Republicans Jay Jones (D) wins 55% of women in the Virginia Attorney General’s race, per preliminary CNN exit poll, while Jason Miyares (R) receives 43%. Men: 58% Miyares, 40% Jones. Absolutely unbelievable, women of Virginia! (Take all exit polls with a grain of salt*)
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Has anyone heard from Lord Arsehat!?!?
Mamdani may reach 50% tonight.
People are easily fooled.
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Lt Governor race in VA already called as well?
She will become Governor in 4 years.
Did Youngkin/Sears/Miyares not do a good job the last 4 years?
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Sears was not a great candidate. She alienated trump voters in 2021.
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they did an excellent job
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Drat wins lt governors race in Va (per de)
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Dd= decision desk
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1 step forwards, 2 steps back…
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Good luck the rest of the night.
Back to work to pay for Mamdani’s groceries and for the properties near Ground Zero which will be turned into a mosque.
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UPS plane with engine on fire crashes on takeoff in KY.
Trump will be blamed, of course.
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Spanberger is ahead by 11, but Jones is only up by 2.
So she needs to win by less than 9.
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R doing better in Bergen county than Trump did by about 2 points.
D way ahead but the Dem counties are way ahead in the count.
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NJ already called.
But the Miyares race has not been called yet.
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DDHQ just gave Jones the check. Sorry, DW; at least half of your neighbors are bad people.
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its terrible…never again will a politician have a scandal that eliminates
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ChrisLaCivita
·
11m
A Bad candidate and Bad campaign have consequences – the Virginia Governors race is example number 1.
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Sears was a lightweight as I have said before.
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Apparently. much of MAGA continues to sit out elections when Trump is not on the ballot. Ciatterelli underperforming Trump’s 2024 percentage.
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They both ran bad campaigns to be honest. (Nj and Va governors race).
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Tina – Did Gateway Pundit tell you that? I have been watching NJ very closely for months. Ciattarelli ran a strong campaign but Trump hatred in 2025 is very real there.
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Sherrill’s message was mostly that her opponent wanted to be Trump of Trenton.
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I will blame trump for loses in 2 blue states.
-freepasser
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Sears did enough damage. She cost us winnable races for Ag.
she got blown out.
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I will pretend I know more about the New Jersey and Virginia elections from 3000 miles away than people watching it on the ground.
-Cult Member
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zzzzz. She lost by 12 points. She impacted the ag race.
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Sherrill’s speech was anti-Trump and pro-illegals.
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but Trump hatred in 2025 is very real there”
Zzzzzz…
What a crock of crap.
Trump did better than Ciatarrelli.
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Neither race was about Trump.
You read it first here.
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The blame Trump BS got old years ago.
Trump won 3 presidential races in a row.
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This is simple. It was the shutdown stupid. You blame the billionaire R’s. It’s that simple.
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Right now, Sherrill is winning in New Jersey by a bigger margin in the double digits than Spanberger in VA.
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Cuomo did better than I thought, got 42%.
In the end I guess Trump’s endorsement helped him.
Sliwa was polling between 15 adn 20%, he got 7.
So a lot of his voters went to Cuomo.
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One common thread is that the polls seemed to overestimate Republican support in all three races in Virginia, New Jersey, and NYC Mayor.
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Ocean County is just about the only Trump county where Ciatarrelli didn’t run behind Trump.
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A year ago. When Trump is not on the ballot, many stay home. Are you denying it?
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It’s like I said before. To so many people they only care about the letter next to the name, not the name itself.
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Neither race was about Trump.
I guess Jason is fortunate to live in the middle of nowhere so he doesn’t see the ads in the Philadelphia market. Sherrill ran against Trump in those ads.
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Looks like it in VA and NJ.
But in NYC, Trump’s last minute endorsement of Cuomo killed the Sliwa vote, not the fault of pollsters.
Atlas Intel’s last poll had Sherill winning by 1. Major fail for the top rated pollster in 2024.
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Sherrill ran against Trump in those ads.”
Zzzzzz…
Kamala ran against Trump in NJ, he got 46%.
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This is all quite simple.
A lot of people who voted for Trump last year do not like what he is doing and are not voting against him. Biden was an unpopular President and so is Trump. 2026 might be brutal for his party. None of this is new politically.
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Translation…..the D’s got what they wanted…..now look for the shutdown to end.
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“now voting against him”
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Two statewide races in Georgia tonight saw Democrats unseat Republicans on the Public Service Commission.
In some counties, these Democrats ran 30 points ahead of Harris.
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In the end, Dems won in 2 solid blue states and in a solid blue city. Rs will end up with about 44% in VA and NJ, which is what they usually get.
Maybe expectations were too high.
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A lot of people who voted for Trump last year do not like what he is doing”
BS.
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Jason refuses to admit Trump voters can’t be counted on reliably when Trump’s name is not on the ballot.
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None of this has any bearing on 2026, which will be a completely different election.
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Jason refuses to admit Trump voters can’t be counted on reliably when Trump’s name is not on the ballot.”
So I guess he in not that unpopular, since Rs do better when he is on the ballot.
Thanks for supporting my argument.
The leftists always pretend when they win that if was about Trump, and when they lose its never about Trump.
Don’t fall into that trap.
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It would be nice if the commie got less than 50%, but there is not much vote left in Queens where he is at 47% and Staten Island where he is at 22%. He is over 50% in the other 3 counties.
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First statewide non-federal wins for Democrats in Georgia tonight since 2006. Democrats defeat two Republican incumbents.
Georgia is not exactly considered a blue state.
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Staten Island is a good example of how Trump’s endorsement helped Cuomo.
Sliwa was winning there in the polls in a R leaning county.
Cuomo got 56%, and Sliwa and Mamdani are basically tied at 22% each.
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“Publlic services commission”
LOL
“2025” is vying for janzam’s clown title.
Has a lot of work to do.
By the way “2025” sounds like the Biden Troll, could be his cousin.
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Every time Rs lose an election, we get a troll.
This one is dumber than average.
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A year ago. When Trump is not on the ballot, many stay home. Are you denying it?”
Apples and oranges.
This is an off year election, not even a midterm.
I don’t think these results have a damm thing to do with Trump.
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Jones underperformed Spanberger by 10 pts, which you would have thought was enough.
But she is up by 14, so it was not enough.
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GA was decided on local issues; the power companies are raking the customers over the coals, and the Republicans offered no solutions. In a race where the Democrat can’t force kids to get trans indoctrination and can only work to lower rates, I am not surprised that they won handily.
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ELECTION RECAP
NJ for the last umpteen election has been a D state.
VA for the last several elections has been a D state.
Ds (in VA at least) all up and down the ballot OUTSPENT the R candidates based on my research.
_______________________
NJ under D state leaders is not doing well as a state. But voters vote D and want more of the same.
VA under R states leaders was doing well as a state. But voters vote to change that to D.
In off year elections, VA esp. had a history of going for whatever party Is not in the white house.
***********************
in BOTH VA and NJ, the Ds nationalized the election and made it a referendum on Trump–BASED ON ALL THE ADS I SAW. …Trump Trump, Trump…
NJ GOV TV ads says I’ll stop Trump.
VA GOV TV ads says I’ll stop Trump. And other TV ads links Winsome-Sears to Trump. Spanberger TV ads laid out NO PLANS TO IMPROVE VA. Spanberger even said publicly she would not work with Trump on things (even if it benefited VA). Sears, IMO was a “B” level candidate at best. Way below the pizazz of current VA R governor Youngkin. Yes, she won the LT GOV 4 years ago–but in a different political climate and was riding Youngkin coat tails. The R LT. GOV candidate is a gay guy–another example of not your best candidate.
VA D AG who is for murdering children…his TV ads link Miyares at the hip with Trump. JONES’ TV ADS AID NOTHING ABOUT HOW HE WOULD RUN THE AG OFFICE. But his ads DID say loudly and repeatedly that Miyares was Trump’s lawyer.
One exit poll I saw asked the question of voters as to if you are unhappy with Trump, is this what is determining how you are voting in VA today (something like that) Thirty-some percent said yes, 42% said it did not make a difference. Yes, I know that is one poll… Still for thirtysome % to say out loud that it was a referendum on Trump gets your attention. THAT is EXACTLY what the DEM TV ads were–make this a referendum on Trump. Even saw those kind of ads on races for the State legislature in VA.
Trump is not popular.
Sorry to point all this out.
I was surprised at the margin of Spanberger win.. Thought it would be 6 or 7…
I was STUNNED that kill-the-children Dem Jones won. I thought the avg voter in VA would have more sense than vote for Jones. But I was, sadly, wrong.
I have not looked at results at all, esp, but county. But I would bet that the NOVA counties numbers were BRUTAL for the Rs. And the VA west of I-81 corridor just does not matter any more in elections. It is NOVA, Richmond area, and Norfolk/Newport News outcome that drives VA
My condolences to DW and all the other sensible and rational people of VA
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Voters in Richmond voted D Spanberger by a 6 and 1/2 to 1 ratio
Voters in Fairfax county and cities of Alexandria, Arlington. Falls Church voter Spanberger by a 5 to 1 ratio.
Spanberger winning by about 498,000 statewide
NOVA places cities above (plus Loudoun county which went Spanberger “only” 2 to 1) gave
Spanberger a net of 370,000 in NOVA
Richmond D net is 60,000 for Spanberger
Tidewater area, add 80,000 for Spanberger
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With the referendum winning in California to kill five republican seats you are going to see an even more starkly divided country. Every R state that can, will redistrict, and the same for the D states. But…this is short sighted on the D side because in 2030 there is going to be a huge swing towards R states and D states will be losing electoral votes…and therefore congressional districts altogether.
in 2032 R will start with 274 Electoral votes, and that is without Nevada, Wisconsin or Michigan thanks to the next census and the moving of large swaths of electoral votes to FL and TX (8), Utah, Idaho, North Carolina, and Arizona (1 each).
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Richmond suburb counties of Henrico and Chesterfield give Spanberge nanother net of 100,000+ votes.
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Maine Voters REJECTED the voter ID proposal
Voter ID
QUESTION 1: “Do you want to change Maine election laws to eliminate two days of absentee voting, prohibit requests for absentee ballots by phone or family members, end ongoing absentee voter status for seniors and people with disabilities, ban prepaid postage on absentee ballot return envelopes, limit the number of drop boxes, require voters to show certain photo ID before voting, and make other changes to our elections?”
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Trump is never popular, he just keeps winning.
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No woke BS in Texas.
Under Proposition 2, Texas voters banned a capital gains tax, a move supporters say protects investors and encourages economic growth. Meanwhile, Proposition 6 prohibits certain taxes on financial service providers like stock exchanges and broker dealers.
Voters also look to have approved Proposition 8, which bans inheritance taxes in the state, ensuring lawmakers cannot impose a tax on estates or inheritances in the future, even though the state currently has none.
Finally, Proposition 5 creates a tax exemption for animal feed held in retailers’ inventories, an effort to lower livestock production costs and support Texas agriculture.Tougher bail rules and judicial oversight
Amendments reshaping parts of the state’s criminal justice system also saw strong support from Texas voters.
Proposition 3 requires judges to deny bail in some violent and sexual offense cases if there’s clear evidence the person poses a danger or might flee — a move supporters say closes loopholes that’ve allowed repeat offenders to walk free.
Also approved was Proposition 12, which overhauls the State Commission on Judicial Conduct, giving it more power “to more effectively sanction judges for judicial misconduct” and change how its members are appointed. Supporters, like Gov. Greg Abbott, say the measure will make the judicial system more transparent.How other amendments faired
Two other amendments poised for approval focus on social and election issues. Proposition 15 puts parents’ rights directly into the state constitution, giving them more say over their kids’ education, healthcare and upbringing. Supporters say it protects families; critics worry it could complicate child welfare cases.
Meanwhile, Proposition 16 reinforces that only U.S. citizens can vote in state and local elections — something already in law but now cemented in the Texas Constitution.
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Thirty percent in VA said it was a referendum on Trump?
THAT is significant?
ZzZzzzzz….
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Maine result is disappointing. They also passed a really stupid red flag law.
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PA votes to keep liberal Supreme Court judges.
Unfortunate.
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61-39 for the Marxist judges.
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You might not be able to watch Monday Night Football tonight. Why? When companies get too big, they have the power to cut off your favorite channels. That’s what’s happening here. And what’s Trump done about it? He’s let them get away with it.”
I guess kings don’t have the power Fauxcahontas thought they did.
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Spanberger won by 15. Hashmi by 11. Jones by 6.
Pollster flopped, but betting markets had it right.
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In numbers Spanberger won by 482k votes. Jones won by 216k.
It looks like the Minneapolis Mamdani lost.
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candidate quality is important
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Series of ls by poor r candidates.
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Why was Ciaterrelli a bad candidate? This should be good.
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Only one PA Supreme Court Justice of either party has not been successful in a retention vote (2005),
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Ciatarrelli was a good candidate. He got 44% in a blue state.
Both can be true.
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There are 2.4 million Dems registered in NJ, vs 1.6 million Reps.
The Dem won by 400k votes.
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Candidate quality was great.
it’s all trumps fault.
-freepasser
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I wouldn’t blame Trump or the candidates.
It’s an off year election, only the more committed voters show up.
There are more committed Dems than Rs in these 2 states.
In NYC, the communist got 50% of the vote running on the D ticket which normally gets 80%+ of the vote. He ran against a disgraced former governor who was forced to resign and got 42%. Nothing to do with Trump.
I would argue none of these results are surprising and probably would have happened exactly the same had Kamala won.
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Sears and Miyares both won statewide in 2021, hard to make the argument they were bad candidates.
Maybe Tina could tell us who she would run in NJ that she thought was better than Ciatarrelli, who almost won in 2021.
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seanmdav
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Instead of spending the last week motivating voters to vote against an Attorney General candidate who openly fantasizes about murdering them and their children—someone who will have actual power to determine who lives or dies—D.C./NoVa conservatives focused all of their attention on trying to cancel a podcast host and a think tank director. These same people will also loudly insist, despite all evidence to the contrary, that they’re really good at politics.
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At the R senate breakfast with trump, the president asked for the following
An end to the blue slips
An end to the filibuster
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Ending the filibuster would ensure a one party state for the Dems in short order.
Political suicide.
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Wokeness to entirely new level.
AP thinks people should consider how much their pets fart.
Pets have a pretty sizable climate impact. But not all carbon…pawprints…are created equal. So if you’re looking to get a pet, which ones emit the least? And if you’ve already got one, how do you make sure it has the smallest foot (or paw) print?”
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I told you someone would blame Trump for the UPS plane catching fire and crashing.
Morgan J. Freeman
BREAKING: Aerial footage shows the UPS cargo plane crash near Louisville, Kentucky airport. Police confirm there are victims and the blood is on Donald Trump’s hands!!!”
Note: not the actor
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I told Lupita to reduce the farting.
Not optimistic.
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agreed on the filibuster. However, blue slips need to go. The President should be allowed a vote on all his nominees. If you don’t like them, vote no.
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The blue slip is why we get no conservative district court justices. Or why we get a Marxist appointed by an R president.
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New Thread
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At 10 am est, the Sc will hear the trumps tariff case.
it kind of reminds me of Chuckfuck ruling- the president had no immunity period.
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