New Trafalgar/Insider Advantage poll: 10/13/25 – 10/15/25, 1039 LVs
 | VIRGINIA GOVERNOR |
| Spanberger | 47.5 |
| Earle-Sears | 45.3 |
| VIRGINIA AG | |
| Miyares | 49.5 |
| Jones | 44.6 |
| VIRGINIA LG | |
| Hasmi | 46.2 |
| Reid | 46.1 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Close in Virginia
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
36 responses to “Close in Virginia”
Chilling that 44.6% in Virginia believe its okay to advocate for putting two bullets in the head of someone you don’t like on the other side of the political aisle, and in so doing say they are worse the Hitler and Pol Pot.
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sample was 53.6 female, 46.4 male.
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Interesting; we’ll find out if there really is a 7.2% gender turnout gap in a couple of weeks, or if it reverts to 52/48 like before
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Insider Advantage was 2.6 blue skew in 2024 and Trafalgar was blue skew 1.9.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/us-budget-deficit-lower-in-2025-tariffs-debt-payments-both-at-records.html
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10 year treasury fell below 4% (to 3.98)
and U.S. crude is below 57. Look for sharp cuts to gasoline prices.
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Crude prices are the lowest in 5 years. Pretty noteworthy.
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John Bolton has been indicted.
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18 count indictment- Espionage.
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Crude oil price and how it relates to retail price…
I would love to see a chart on how if crude oil price is. SUCH AS:
$60 a barrel then retail per gallon should be $1.99
$70 a barrel, then retail per gallon should be $2.40
$80 a barrel then retail per gallon should be $2.80
$90 a barrel, there retail per gallon should be $3.10
But I also have never seen a unicorn in the wild either .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I am sure the oil industry has a list as long as your arm of reasons why drop in crude price does not locally and rationally translate into lower price at the pump.
SUCH AS:
despite the drop in crude oil prices, prices at the pump will remain high because
–some fire somewhere at some oil refinery
–uncertainty over war in Ukraine
–aurora borealis
–Alien space objects heading toward earth’
–glowbull warming
–threat of higher taxers on oil industry if Dems get back in control of congress
–potential SCOTUS rulings on Trump tariffs
–changing driving patterns
–supply chain issues
–increased demand for oil in China
–competition from coconut oil and palm oil
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espionage
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I age, peons
o spine age
o penis age
noise gape
a pig nose e
A seeping O
AG peonies
A pigeon’s E
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Why does faux have Andy McCarthy on as a “legal advisor”. He has been wrong over and over again.
https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/1978939347316384161
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Middle of thr 3rd and tied at 1. I hate these early games, I guess the AL drew prime time tonight, I missed all the earlly action by the time I got to my hotel.
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BOOM! Dodgers take the lead in the 6th after four solid innings by the Mis. One out and men at the corners.
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MKE going for their 3rd pitcher now.
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Uribe bungles a pickoff at 1st, now 3-1. MKE had someone I didn’t recognize warming up moments ago, so likely four pitchers burnt going into the 7th.
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Chourio’s old hamstring injury snuck up and got him at bat, the PH finished the strikeout and ended the inning, but MKE loses one of it’s best players. That’s goota hurt (and I mean the team, not just the player).
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Last call for the Brewers; going into the 9th down 1-3.
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Sasaki closes out the bar; Brewers down 0-3 in this series. Never say never, but the fat lady is warming up.
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Moving up the coast, Seattle draws first blood in the second; 1-0
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Jays get a 2 run shot to take the lead.
Back to polls, this one from Insider Advantage in NJ;
Mikie Sherrill: 45%
Jack Ciattarelli: 44%
Unsure: 7%
INDEPENDENTS:
Jack Ciattarelli: 43% (+6)
Mikie Sherrill: 37%
Unsure: 12%
10/14-15 | N=800LV
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At least the Phillies gave the Dodgers real competition. Which means nothing because they lost the series. It is actually worse because they had a chance to win the series.
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They surely did, BL; I don’t know where the vaunted Brewer offense is, but it hasn’t shown up much at all. Makes me wondr who they were playing during the regular season.
New Seattle pitcher got out of a bad jam. Jays scored another for a 3-1 lead, but strnaded three, could have been much worse. If Seattle loses tonight, it evens the series, and the Jays’ momentum could finish the ALDS quickly (their bats are on fire tonight, much like last night).
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5-1 Jays middle of the 4th. Looks lke this one might slip away from Seattle after all.
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Jay Jones declares he is going to “prosecute the President” as Virginia Attorney General.
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That’s all Jones has left; Orange Man Bad! He has to crank up partisan Dem turnout and hope that 50%+1 of those who vote care more about putting Trump in prison than electing a mad man as their top cop.
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Trump is going to meet with Putin in Hungary. After the Ukraine/Russia war ends, the Warmongers will be in desperate need of a war to watch while eating Cheetos.
Chicon”
Zzzzzz…
“Warmonger” – anyone who doesn’t support Chicon’s hero Putin’s war crimes and his goal of annexing Ukraine.
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Chicon supports Russia’s war on Ukraine but he wants us to believe he is against war.
The hypocrisy is astounding.
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RIP, Ace Frehley. Rock on in Heaven.
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Great outing by Scherzer tonight; I didn’t know what happened to him, but at 41, he told his coach that he was staying and then proceeded to shut down to Mariners comeback attempts and gave the Jays almost six innings. Probably his last season, looking to go out on a high note.
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8-2, turning into another rout in the 8th. This one is basically over.
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boooonooo back
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The allegations laid out in the Bolton indictment look pretty ugly for the Walrus. If these aren’t just a figment of some prosecutors imagination, this is going to be tough (but not impossible) to overcome, even with a Democrat appointed judge and blue state jury. You can read the full indictment here –
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/the-bolton-indictment.php
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I read the indictment. He hired the Gloria Allred of left wing political celebrities, Abe Lowell. But this guy didn’t get Hunter Biden off and he basically screwed Biden by pushing the envelope too far on the sweetheart deal he had gotten.
In his note, Lowell already admits “sharing with family members”, but of course there is no such “exception” for classified information.
The indictment seems to have teeth in it, assuming what is said is true. And Bolton, who loves his own voice and can’t resist the calling of the MSM, said a bunch of crap related to the Hegseth Signal issue where he basically condemns everything he now tries to use to justify his actions. It completely wipes out any defense that he was “unaware” he was violating the law.
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records that are unclassified, shared only with his immediate family”
Zzzzz…
If they were unclassified, they could be shared with anyone.
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New Thread
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