Tied in New Jersey
i am being told that there is a new poll from The Hill/Emerson showing a tie.
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Tied in New Jersey
i am being told that there is a new poll from The Hill/Emerson showing a tie.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
21 responses to “Tied in New Jersey…”
on special assignment the next three days. Will get new threads up as able.
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I’m claiming 1st since the original poster doesn’t count! 🙂
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DW’s mission is top secret, but rumor is rampant on social media that he will be engaged in high level conversations to establish HHR chapters in various important countries around the world.
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GF beat me by a 3.578 nanoseconds?
What an A-hole.
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That NJ poll will convince donors to contribute to the R and force Dems to pony up too.
I wonder if Trump will hold rallies in VA and NJ before the election.
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New Jersey 2025 Poll: Race for Governor in Dead Heat between Sherrill and Ciattarelli – Emerson Polling
Hopefully the snapshot comes through. Look at those 50+ numbers! The tie is based on Sherril doing well with the 40-49 crowd (reasonable turnout voters) and stomping Jack with the under 40s (less reliable turnout). I don’t expect it, but he could win going away if the usual age group disparities in turnout show up again. He needs to target the 40-49s to even that up a bit, and try to nudge his way up to, say, 35% of the 30-39s. Not sure what else can be done about the under 30s except to hope that they get too busy ith their Funko Pops, socil media, and weed to vote.
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The crosstabs have some good news for the R. Murphy is more unpopular than Trump, indies are breaking heavily for him, and the economy is the top issue.
Of course there is no reason for only 86% of Rs to support their candidate. Probably needs like 95% to have a chance.
“The poll found Murphy holds a 35% job approval rating, with 44% disapproving. Just over a fifth of voters, 21%, said they had no opinion on the two-term governor. Trump’s approval rating is at 41%, with 51% disapproving (9% are unsure.)
The poll found independents favored Ciattarelli 52% to 26%. Republicans (86%) were a little more likely to back their party’s nominee than were Democrats (81%).”
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The 30-39 numbers are disappointing. 60-28? Geezus.
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I checked Polymarket to see if the poll had an impact.
Ciattarelli went from 15% to 20%.
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From what I see, the gender numbers are the only red flag for Republicans; twice as many women are undecided as are men, and women are leaning D by ten points whereas men go R by 12.
If gender loyalty strikes, Sherrill will win by about 3 points, which is where I put this race at months ago. If it doesn’t, NJ might compensate the GOP for VA (which is now down to -6 for Sears from double digits).
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Devastating ad. This is akin to Kamala not being able to come up with something she would do different than Biden.
https://x.com/Jack4NJ/status/1967533854341918880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1967533854341918880%7Ctwgr%5E38d4c4bd89feca3c8ad35a00f4f8f6974137825f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fterichristoph%2F2025%2F09%2F25%2Fpoll-new-jersey-governors-race-now-in-dead-heath-n2194364
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Sherill tries the “good question” gambit to buy time to answer but in the end she has nothing.
Incredible.
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Thank God Captain Kirk is ok…
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I am skeptical the turnout will be high among 18-29 voters in an off year governor’s election, so the gender gap may tighten a bit, you can assume those 18-29 numbers are even worse for the R among women.
Ciattarelli needs to improve among Rs and among the 30-39 demographic.
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Congrats to Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners that hit his 60th HR last night. And congrats to the M’s to win the West Division of the American League.
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JG – What happened to the Tigers? There has not been a collapse like that since the Soviet Union.
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https://nypost.com/2025/09/25/us-news/dem-nj-gov-candidate-mikie-sherrill-barred-from-walking-at-us-naval-academy-graduation-over-cheating-scandal/
When your campaign is based upon being a Naval Academy graduate and helicopter pilot, you should have a plan on dealing with the fact you could not walk across the stage at graduation.
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Bittlerlaw, the Tiger’s collapse is monumental, much like the Mets. But they still have a chance but it will be difficult since they finish the year at Fenway (Boston).
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Baseball has a grueling season.
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She cheated at school, Bl, as well as did insider trading in the house.
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New Thread despite being on special assignment
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