According to AARP (Fabrizio Ward-R / Impact Research-D) poll taken 7/24-7/ 31 against 600 LV:
 | GEORGIA |
| Trump | 46 |
| Harris | 44 |
| Kennedy | 4 |
| West | 2 |
| Stein | 1 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.0 / 56.0 | -15.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.1 / 53.1 | -8.0 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
120 responses to “Trump with Edge in stale poll of GA”
UNO
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Pass the popcorn. Carville to “take action” against Fetterman for vetoing Shapiro.
“Democratic strategist James Carville on Thursday warned Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman he will take action against him for allegedly undermining his state’s governor, Josh Shapiro, by lobbying against him to be Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate.
Fetterman’s advisers discreetly conveyed concerns about Shapiro’s prioritization of his own personal goals, three individuals familiar with the discussions told Politico. Carville, on his “Politics War Room” podcast, said he will “deal with” Fetterman after the election because of how he treated Shapiro despite the governor allegedly helping the senator get elected.”
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Bitter, if this is a lawsuit I suggest you contact Carville to offer your services.
No, you won’t win but it will certainly give you a lot of publicity.
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“The other thing is, is one of the great backstabbers in modern Democratic politics is John Fetterman, but I’m going to wait ’til after the election to deal with him. But he’s somebody that must be dealt with, and must be dealt with in real terms,” Carville said.
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meow. Dem cat fights
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Fetterman is a sitting US senator, Carville is an 80 year old political hack.
My money is on Fetterman especially if it is wrestling or boxing.
Even if its pistols I will take Fetterman.
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I can’t wait for Fetterman’s response…
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538 back to selective poll inclusion. Yesterday’s rust belt state polling done by Democracy Institute were not put on 538’s page, probably because Trump led in each state, and that does NOT fit the narrative. They already banned Rasmussen, and now another pollster they don’t like, although now they do include Big Data Poll.
But this leaves the HHR as the ONLY place where you are ONE CLICK away from seeing ALL polls for a given state. It doesn’t mean all polls equally impact the average (see methodology), but at least you see them all.
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So is serpent head having issues with doltz?
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Too bad that with the stupid registration system, nobody will ever see it.
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He wanted Shapiro.
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He also wanted an open convention.
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Ok, ok, I said I wouldn’t mention the the registration system anymore.
Carry on.
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Et tu, KJP?
“White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Wednesday responded to Bush’s comments during a press conference. She told reporters that President Joe Biden condemns her “divisive” and “inflammatory” rhetoric, especially after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.
“Look, the president has always been very clear — and very recently, after the assassination attempt of the last president — about lowering rhetoric, right? Lowering political rhetoric and the importance of doing that,” Jean-Pierre said. “It is important — important that we be very mindful of what we say. This kind of rhetoric is inflammatory and divisive and incredibly unhelpful.”
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DW, RCP didn’t post those polls either or the Redfield and Wilton polls you posted a couple days ago.
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So, looks like trumps leas is increasing “again.” To 5 now?
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Zzzzzzzzz Start your own blog and get DW to run it.
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https://x.com/shipwreckedcrew/status/1821606943246451046?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Jason, people don’t need to register to click on the state poll links and see the data.
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Jeff G, RCP is very selective. They only post about 40% of polls available.
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Everyone likes to keep their focus on the national polls, and the polls of battleground states. Understandable. However, in measuring the size of the media created Harris “surge,” you know, because she is actually alive and debatably sane, unlike the zombie she replaced, the non-battleground states can prove helpful as well. In these polls, there would be little to no incentive to juice the numbers for the purpose of nudging the narrative in the direction of Harris.
But if her surge is real, and long-lasting, we should see it showing up in the non-battleground states as well. So lets take these one at a time:
CALIFORNIA:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +20
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +21
No statistically relevant movement in the largest state.
NEW YORK:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +10
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +11.6
Little statistically relevant movement, but either way much closer than 2020.
FLORIDA:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +8
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Trump +8
Absolutely no difference.
OREGON (one poll each):
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +11
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +5
More data needed, but certainly no Harris surge recorded here so far.
TEXAS:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Trump +9.5
Currently, there are ZERO Trump vs. Harris polls of Texas, which strikes me as odd. The leftist media, and leftist pollsters have been polling and repolling Texas all year desperately trying to find it in play. You would have to think that they have been polling it over and over since Harris jumped in, but for some reason they don’t want to release the results. Wonder why?
WASHINGTON:
Final Trump vs. Biden average: Biden +11
Current Trump vs. Harris average: Harris +14
The Biden number was artificially deflated by an absurd Bullfinch group poll showing Trump actually ahead. The last two polls of Washington state found Biden up 16 and 14. Basically the same as the one new poll including Harris.
I am not sure what the combined percentage of the country’s population lives in CA, NY, FL, OR and WA, but its a good chunk. And so my question is simply, why does the Harris “surge” only show up in media and university national polling, and in their battleground state polling, when at the same time it does not show up in CA, NY, FL, OR, (TX?), and WA?
Maybe it has to do with them juicing the turnout models to D+6 or D+7 nationally, and similar adjusting on the state poll demographic weightings rather than any real significant movement?
No doubt Harris got a little bit of a bump in polling, after all, she is alive and can read a teleprompter with reasonable clarity. So sure, there is a boost from that compared to Biden. But this idea that somehow a woman who was disliked so strongly three weeks ago is now suddenly an electoral juggernaut is a bit overblown, and so far, the non-battleground state polling testifies to this fact.
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Zzzzzzzzz Start your own blog and get DW to run it.”
I tried to register A-hole Pundit but couldn’t get it.
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I was going to start the A-hole Pundit blog.
Bitter is an ungrateful bastard since I intended to put his picture on the front page to honor him.
Some people just can’t be pleased.
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I wonder if Fetterman’s anti-Shapiro thing was orchestrated to blunt charges of anti-semitism for not picking Shapiro.
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I can’t translate that, sorry.
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Serbia 54 US 43 (with LeBron, Durant, Curry, etc) at halftime
Would be a major upset
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Today’s job numbers were decent, markets held their gains today.
Recession is cancelled again .. well at least until the next negative catalyst.
Credit to <insert favorite politician’s name here>
Big Joe
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Jason,
The best NBA players are not on the US team. Jokic, SGA, Giannis, Doncic were all competing for the MVP this year, and they are all international.
The U.S. is not a clear favorite. We are considered heavy favorites mostly based on historical reputation.
Big Joe
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I WAS TTHE BIG WINNER AT BRIDGE TODAY!
#1
TOP score
NUMERO UNO!
Go to your fridge and get any drink you want.
I’m buying.
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ITEM OF CONCERN
My various feeds are being INUNDATED with posts/ads about “you gotta contribute to Kamala Harris campaign.
On AOL.
On MSM feed.
On Facebook page
I am reporting all and deleting them from being posted on my stu.ff again.
Due to “sensitive nature” issue.
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This guy is a serial liar….
This is in a book he endorsed, so he can’t pretend he didn’t know about it.
“A longtime National Guardsman who served in Afghanistan, Walz was a popular high school teacher and football coach who believed that because of his life experience he could do a better job in Congress than the incumbent. He appealed to voters with a great “authentic” message..”
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Hey Big Joe
The US won the last quarter like 32-15 and pulled it out at the end.
Face France for the gold.
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Jason, do you have the tittle of that book? Thanks.
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Credit to <insert favorite politician’s name here>“
Doesn’t matter Big Joe.
Everything is more expensive.. food and gas and utilities that everyone spends on
Mortgage rates are very high.
Rents are high.
Real wages have lost to inflation.
This is all baked in, won’t change by November.
So if people vote their pocketbooks the Dems will lose.
If they vote on abortion, wokeness, who gets more handouts, etc. the Dems will win.
Let’s see.
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The book was
Winning Your Election the Wellstone Way: A Comprehensive Guide for Candidates and Campaign Workers Paperback – July 10, 2008
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https://x.com/StolenValor1/status/1821577079948968374?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1821577079948968374%7Ctwgr%5E8c39805fe0dd3d3d5a9595170720223eff737e7c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2Fdavid-strom%2F2024%2F08%2F08%2Fstolen-valor-scandal-gets-worse-if-possible-n3792870
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I agree, Jason.
Most of the country does not follow the stock market. It’s always a losing proposition for any politician to want to take credit for a rising market. They open themselves up for criticism if/when the market reverses. I guess if the market turns lower, they can always blame someone else. Rinse and repeat.
Big Joe
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The NBA players on France’s squad are not impressive. Gobert, Fournier, Batum are all role players. Wemby is a rookie. In theory, US should have an easier time against France than we just did against Serbia.
Big Joe
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Given Harris is hiding in her basement, she must be working on her debate performance. Lets see, she’s probably prepping for the inflation question….
“Inflation…yes, that’s what happens when things go from smaller to bigger, that’s why its called inflation. So you go buy a head of lettuce at the store, and remember, smaller to bigger, and you used to pay 99 cents for a small head of lettuce, but now when you pay 99 cents, you get a much bigger head of lettuce, you got it? Smaller to bigger, and you have me and Joe Biden to thank for this. Inflation is the sign of a healthy and inflating economy, and under my administration, I promise much more inflation so you get bigger things than you used to get, when you only got smaller, non-inflated things under President Trump who had no ability to provide you any inflation.”
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5th stolen valor video appears
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DW, that’s akin to the old SNL skit with Dan Aykroyd as Jimmy Carter extolling the virtues of inflation; “By the end of a second term, every American can be earning over $200,000!”
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Stock market rallies due to amazing press conference of Donald Trump.
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Harris/Walz got Harry Balls.
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Test
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Good evening, BL. I hope you’re feeling well. I was sorry to read about your episode this past weekend. I appreciate the work you and DW do to keep this site going.
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Thank you. I recovered quickly. I brought HHR back. DW and Vic are doing great work.
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Standup CHUCK!
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Did you hear about the new Chinese version of James Bond movie that did not pan out?
The Chinese James Bond-like spy was named Ha. Yee Ha.
*************************************************************
Did you hear about the new French version of the James Bond movie that did not pan out?
The French James Bond-like spy was named Bahgg. Douche Bahgg.
*************************************
Did you hear about the ne Saudi Arabian version of the James Bond movie that did not pan out?
The Saudi James Bond-like spy was named Towe. Camal Towe.
Now, you guys come up other fake James Bond like spy movies in various countreis that did not make it.
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quiet night after so many days of multiple 150+ comment threads
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The many many polls that DW and others post about Trump being ahead in state afte stte must all be fake polls and dead wrong.
DRUDGE headlines are all about how Kamala is surging, ahead of Trump, Trump is panicked, Trump mentally losing it, etc.
LOL
**************************8
Frickin’ DRUDGE…
I now put DRUDGE right up there with spotted lantern flies, crabgrass and hemorrhoids.
P.S. WE are under tornado watch…
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Cash Cow here.
Pssst., Hey you guys, I am getting worried about Walt and the way his brain thinks.
Don’t let Walt know I am looking for some help and ideas from the HHR gang.
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bongino report is the best replacement for drudge. I haven’t been to drudge in years
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…Vietnam Bond-like move?
Spy named Dong.
Long Dong.
(((((((((((((((((((((((((
He has an evil twin.
Wrong Long Dong
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DW,
I RARELY click on any DRUDGE stories anymore.
It hurts my neck to look that far left.
They no longer are even having any headlines about deer or monkeys.
sigh.
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It is difficult to keep the site traffic steady after I cost us all of our posts from Canada.
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Come on!
Let’s have more fake James Bond movies, people!
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“HHR, the political blog with a multinational flair!”
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I’ve been listening to Bongino’s podcast when I walk the dog.
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bitter. lol
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Vote left and let Die
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Moonbat-maker, starring Kommie Kamala and wierdo-Walz
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okay, Walt is far better at this than me
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Never pull left Lever Again
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“bongino report is the best replacement for drudge. I haven’t been to drudge in years”
Any of these sites are much better than Drudge.
https://www.conservativenewsdaily.net/
https://citizenfreepress.com/
https://www.whatfinger.com/
https://noahreport.com/
http://protrumpnews.com/
https://americafirstreport.com/
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lie another day – The Comrade Harris campaign
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Pull my Gold Finger – A James Bond comedy.
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Grab ‘em by their Octopussy
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Access Hollywood would produce that one.
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bitter wins
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“Did you hear about the new Brooklyn version of the James Bond movie that did not pan out?”
The James Bond-like spy was named ArStillo, MaFunds ArStillo……especially after making this crappy movie!
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Quemala wants an arms embargo against Israel.
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really. She didn’t come out and say that did she??
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Walt, should I put that drink on Cash Cow’s tab? Time to spread the wealth with those bridge earnings.
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If I heard correctly – She allowed some protester to “speak her Truth” last night, and then did not push back against the kids ideas, one of which was the arms embargo
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Bitter,
GOOD ONES!
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Bond-like movie in Compton, CA with two spies?
“Our names are …Bond.”
“Out On Bond. And Can’t Make Bond.” 🙂
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The Minnesota Freedom Fund would produce that one..
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Tornado watch here since about 7 p.m.
Then take shelter–tornado WATCH.
Spent the last 40 minutes in basement shelter.
Tornado warning expired. Cloud that radar indicated has rotation has moved farther NW.
Next batch of storms should be here by 3 a.m.
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Walt survived the Great Flood, no tornado is going to threaten him.
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Amen. That tornado saw Walt and said, I am not messing with him, he helped Moses part the Red Sea.
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glad youre ok
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Heck, Walt survived the Late Heavy Bombardment. I’m also glad you’re OK and pray you stay so.
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Placed on a terror watch list, the former Hawaii congresswoman and her husband were tailed by Air Marshals and bomb dogs. “Unconstitutional on every level,” Tulsi Gabbard
https://www.racket.news/p/american-stasi-tulsi-gabbard-confirms
This is what Democrats do to their political enemies. And then they have the nerve to say Trump would act like a dictator!
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Did Trump say he went down on Willie Broan in a Helicopter during the press conference?
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Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz touted misleading descriptions of his military service during his 2006 congressional run, according to a media kit he distributed at the time.
A March 20, 2006, Wall Street Journal report included in the kit states that Walz “served overseas during the early war in Afghanistan.” Walz told the paper that the Iraq war is “not something that is a political game.”
Another, from the January/February 2006 edition of The Atlantic, describes Walz as “a command sergeant major who’d just returned from fighting the war on terrorism.” The piece goes on to characterize Walz as one of the “number of veterans from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq” who were running for Congress that year.
Walz, now the Democratic vice presidential nominee, did not serve in either Afghanistan or Iraq, and his title of command sergeant major was revoked after he left the service just two months before his National Guard battalion was informed of a future deployment to Iraq. Walz was stationed overseas in Italy from August 2003 to April 2004.
https://freebeacon.com/elections/tim-walz-promoted-media-misrepresentations-of-his-military-service-in-2006-run/
wow, what a disgusting human being!
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no polls
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Leading Report
@LeadingReport
·
Aug 7
BREAKING: The Georgia State Election Board has just voted to accept a proposed new rule that requires the Postal Service to provide tracking for mail-in ballots and ensure the chain of custody for undeliverable ballots.
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MSM “fact checking” Trump’s presser.
He said 13 soldiers were killed in Afghanistan withdrawal.
He lied because “only 1 was a soldier, 12 were Marines and 1 a Navy corpsman’
You can’t make this sh-t up.
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“Democratic State Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil is switching her party affiliation to Republican, multiple sources told KCRA 3, speaking on the condition they remain anonymous.
Alvarado-Gil represents Senate District 4, which encompasses parts of Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, El Dorado, Inyo, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Mono, Nevada, Placer, Stanislaus, and Tuolumne counties. She was first elected to her seat in the state senate in 2022 and is up for reelection in 2026.”
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Hey Paul, did you see what Willie Brown said about Kamala?
“She always had a good head for politics”
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At this time, Stoner is not ready to proceed with the election interference case before judge Chutfuck. Case delayed until September
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Today is Friday, August 9.
Last Sunday was August 4th. Given the rapid-fire release of national polls we might presume some of them included this week. One did:
Rasmussen. Trump +5
None of the other recent national polls have any data past Sunday August 4.
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Raining cats and dogs here, skies are black, tornado watch.
If I don’t make it, please honor my last words.
GFYS
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DW, are you going to start a blog?
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I would like to remind everyone that back in March and again in April, the media and pollsters made two attempts at artificially creating a Biden ‘surge’ in the polls. You know the moment everyone overlooks the fact that he was a zombie and starts cheering for him to win. Even RRH Elections had several posters there who worried this was Trump’s collapse finally happening, and Democrats who posted there openly spoke of the reality of the surge.
But the surging was not real. It was just a polling and media attempt to create a narrative that they desperately hoped would stick. Quinnipiac had Biden +3, FAU and Marist, Biden +2, Morning Consult had Biden +1. But it collapsed in March, so they tried again in April.
IPSOS/Reuters had Biden +4, Marist Biden +3, TIPP had Biden +2. But this attempt failed as well, and after Biden’s debate debacle, the polling just let him go, and astoundingly bad polling for Biden resulted until Schumer forced him out.
The difference with Harris is that she DID get a very real bump, but the media and pollsters are way over-inflating it. As I pointed out earlier in this thread the data from the non-battleground states of CA, NY, FL and a few others remarkably show no difference between Biden and Harris in their numbers against Trump. How could it be that national polling and battleground state polling has so drastically shifted toward Harris, without the same shift showing up in CA, NY, and FL? And Texas is a state that I guarantee you if they had a new poll showing Harris 46, Trump 48, they would have published it by now. But they didn’t publish it, because they can’t.
Don’t be fooled by all the smoke and mirrors. Yes, Harris got a bump by virtue of the fact that she is alive and can more or less read a teleprompter. But is she somehow an electoral giant? No.
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MG, no. No interest in starting a blog.
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Well, what do you know? The ink barely dry in my post above and look what just arrived:
2024 GE:
@RMG_Research
🟦 Harris: 44% [-3]
🟥 Trump: 43% [+1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 6% [=]
[+/- change vs 7/29-31]
—
With leans
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 1%
—
| 8/5-7 | 2,000 RV
https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/08/09/presidential-race-update/
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ok, just wondering because you have that website attached to your DW handle.
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A five point lead LAST week evaporated into a ONE point lead this week.
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The MSM has been playing defense on Walz all week.
Tapper said the stolen valor story is “crazy”.
But of course every minute they spend denying it is a minute playing defense.
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Good analysis, DW, thanks.
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#MI08 GE:
Paul Junge (R) 45 (+1)
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) 44%
@GSG/@McdonaldRivet (D) Internal Poll, 500 LV, 7/29-8/1
This is for Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-MI 08) seat who is retiring. Great pickup opportunity!
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/725861/sparks-will-fly-in-flint/
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test
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Here is a better link to the poll.
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/725861/sparks-will-fly-in-flint/?unlock=783DPMCQDV4IV9DE
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I posted a link to RCP but it got censored.
No big deal.
The two polls showing Trump ahead are now posted, Kamala only +0.5% now.
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She can’t speak without a teleprompter!
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Makes a good T-shirt
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DRUGE
So glad we have an unbiased media!
LOL
********************
“TRUMP LOSES HIS ORANGE FACE; DEBUTS LIGHTER HUE AT MAR-A-LAGO!
ISN’T CAMPAIGNING AS HARD AS HE USED TO…
ONLINE BETTING TURNS AGAINST HIM…
NO LONGER COMMANDS THE SPOTLIGHT… NOONAN: HE’S FLOUNDERING…
Kamala campaign weaponizes crowd size…
POLL: HARRIS +5…
COOK SHIFTS AZ, GA, NV TOWARD… HER
4 signs peaceful transfer of power in danger…
TRUMP RUNNING OUT OF STEAM?
POLL SHOWS HIM LOSING MIAMI
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Ukraine’s incursion into Russia alive and well.
Tina and Janzam the Putin Toadies hardest hit
Has Janzam been here yet to whine about “escalation”?
https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-ukraine-advances-russia-kursk-1936947#slideshow/2446652
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Now Tina is cursing.
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Joe Rogan – Kamala is like a fifth grader. 😂
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Sick
https://twitchy.com/amy-curtis/2024/08/09/kamala-harris-visited-terror-school-that-celebrated-murder-of-retired-connecticut-teacher-n2399415
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File this under the You can’t make this up part 2.
This is from the NYT today (who, as Jason noted above, are now saying GA, NV and AZ are moving to Harris as she races to a landslide).
Mind you…this is NOT AN OPINION PIECE, but filed as NEWS!!!
“A campaign that once felt like a death march has become a dance party for Democrats. Tens of thousands flock to rallies in battleground states and Zoom confabs online — White dudes! Cat ladies! Even venture capitalists for Harris! The campaign coffers are overflowing. And President Biden’s dark warnings about a “battle for the soul of America” have been replaced with a brat-infused pursuit of “the joy.”“
yeah…the MSM cheerleaders are back
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“A campaign that once felt like a death march”
That’s not what they said at the time. Did they publish a retraction?
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NY Times correction:
In multiple news stories about the Biden Campaign, we mistakenly reported that Biden was the courageous candidate who achieved remarkable changes for the future of our nation, and that his fortitude was inspiring the next generation as he moves forward in his campaign to win re-election.
We should have reported that his campaign felt like a death march, and we all knew he was going to lose in a blowout.
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Defrosting the freezer in the garage.
Astounded at how many packages of relatives of Cash Cow were in there.
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Kamala was asked what she thought about Walt defrosting the freezer:
“Look….we have frost. The frost is in the freezer. With the FOOD! Frost in the freezer is bad. There comes a time when we HAVE to defrost. And we do so because it is THERE. And it will help turn the frost into clean water. And people SHOULD from time to time defrost, but nobody is MAKING them do it! It is their CHOICE. Which is related to the BIGGER issue protecting women’s rights to REPROCUCTIVE freedoms, and STOPPING the Republican man-made global warming–and stopping Trump.
Hee, hee, hee, hee, hee. (hair flip)
Thank you for that thoughtful question about defrosting the freezer.”
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NT in a minute
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