Two charts have been added to the 2024 polling grades page. The first shows the finalized grades for the pollsters who surveyed at least 5 of the 7 battleground states. Many of these polled repeatedly throughout the year, and were the frequent new thread starters. The Average Miss simply means for each of the states the pollster surveyed, the average they were off in each state is shown. Anything under 1.0 is simply outstanding. Atlas Intel surveyed all seven battleground states and on average missed the exact outcome by only 0.79. Had they done better in Georgia, their results would nearly be suspect of requiring higher powers to deduce.
The second chart sorts the results by Average Skew. This shows which candidate, on average, was over-estimated in the polling. As you can see, only one pollster, Democracy Institute over-estimated Trump. All of the rest over-estimated Harris.
NOTE: These are REAL grades based on how the pollsters ACTUALLY performed, unlike the propaganda grades you can find other places on the internet.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
121 responses to “7 Battleground State polling grades finalized”
Great work DW
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Pass the popcorn when Homan arrests the open border lunatics from arresting the illegals.”
Zzzzzz… I will go for $1000 on “Things that will never happen”.
The border czar has no power to arrest anyone for “failing to arrest illegals”.
Homan will be in charge of immigration POLICY, but he himself has no power to arrest anybody.
For that he will need the cooperation of federal, state and local agencies, and of course the judiciary.
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I could go on and on with examples of government agencies altering and/or destroying evidence in the murder of JFK. Everything I cite is documented and not the ramblings of a lunatic, a-hole conspiracy theorist.”
Sorry, I think all the JFK conspiracy theories ARE the ramblings of lunatic, a-hole conspiracy theories.
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Bullfinch… LOL
I told you guys not to pay any attention to a polling firm that has “bull” in its name.
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Yes, “The Bull**** Group” and “FecalData” lived up to their nicknames.
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Surprising how well PPP-D did…. usually they are like the worst.
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PPP-D did very little polling near the end. Theirs were a bit stale, but within the cut-off envelope. I had to draw the line somewhere. None of this polling data was from back in late July when Harris took over. I only included from late August onward. By then Harris had gone through her surge and was coming back down to earth.
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I suppose its symbolic that CNN ended up #28, right between FecalData and Bullfinch.
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For the Putinistas all excited about the Russian missile attack on a populated center.
https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/11/22/update-there-was-no-icbm-attack-on-ukraine-n2182336
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Great work, DW. Thank you for making HHR respectable despite me.
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Had Harris won the election, there is 0% chance you would have seen the quote below:
CALIFORNIA GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM: “I care about Trump supporters. I care about RFK Jr. supporters. I care about Tucker Carlson supporters. I care about Charlie Kirk supporters. I care about Ben Shapiro supporters. I care about all people.”
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I do have a regret about this election.
That Rush Limbaugh didn’t get to see Trump re-elected.
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If Trump follows thru with releasing the file on JFK more will be known (hopefully) about the assassination, who were the real shooters, and who was behind taking him out. The so called “conspiracy theories,” associated with JFK’s death, make much more sense than what has been patched together as the “official” story. Anyone who sticks to the government’s version, dismissing dissenting testimonies and evidence, are either foolish or fools.
Much like the information about Kennedy’s death has been muddied or covered up, so have the details surrounding the J6 protest. Coming out now is how the Pentagon deliberately delayed sending the National Guard in to quell the disturbance. Furthermore, the Capitol policeman, who killed an unarmed woman, has recently been exposed to have a much larger record demonstrating prior recklessness in his capacity as a law enforcement official.
I’m also relieved Mike Rogers has been taken off the table for the FBI Director slot. Rogers, having McCabe’s public blessing for the job, makes him someone you want to steer clear of. Kash Patel, controversial as he is, is well suited for either the FBI Director’s position or as a deputy.
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Gaetz not going back to Congress either.
Win-win.
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#BREAKING: FINAL results find Donald J. Trump won Bucks County, Pennsylvania – the first time for a Republican since 1988. Late votes kept bringing Kamala Harris closer to flipping it – but she ultimately did NOT.
@ScottPresler has basically been living here all year. Trump won the county by 0.07 points, or 291 votes.
@BucksGOP confirmed these are the final
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. Furthermore, the Capitol policeman, who killed an unarmed woman, has recently been exposed to have a much larger record demonstrating prior recklessness in his capacity as a law enforcement official”
I would love to see this guy prosecuted or at least a real investigation.
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Scott Pressler and Elon Musk delivered PA for McCormick, probably for Trump too.
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Matt Gaetz will be a more efficient thorn in the side of corrupt government’s side, in the private sector, than having to abide by the constraints of his official role in a partisan government.
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Tina, when you paste, try right-click, and pick “Paste as plain text” and it won’t paste the images or clip art with a gigantic size.
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DW, as usual amazing work!! Did anyone notice that in the second set of data above, poll skew, they are ALL SKEWED DEM except one pollster. Even the most accurate poster skewed Dem in their polls.
That, in itself, should tell us somet
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thanks. Dw. I am in need of remedial on that.
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The Capitol police offer that assassinated Ashley should be investigated. Two officers were standing by him and had no guns drawn. They indicated that they perceived no threat.
this is the same cop that left his gun I’ll in a capitol bathroom.
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She was unarmed. Now before bl chimes in, yes she should not have been there. But she paid with her life. At max, she should have been charged with trespassing
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The cop who shot Ashley should face the same level of scrutiny faced by any officer who kills someone in the line of duty.
Did he? If so, it wasn’t very public.
Chicon
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Matt Gaetz will be a more efficient thorn in the side of corrupt government’s side, in the private sector, than having to abide by the constraints of his official role in a partisan government.”
Absolutely. I wish him lots of luck in the private sector!
But it is still possible Trump could appoint him to something that does not need confirmation.
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Chiron, the office who killed Ashley was promoted!
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Did he? If so, it wasn’t very public.”
No, it seems like he was almost immediately “exonerated”.
I find no justification for the shooting. If she had been the first person coming through a window and had been warned against it there could be some sort of excuse. But there were trespassers all around the shooter, one even filmed it. So there was no added threat to the Capitol or any person by one more person person entering, an unarmed woman.
At the very least it was excessive use of force.
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FBI caught in another lie.
https://justthenews.com/government/security/hldcell-companies-refute-fbi-testimony-j6-pipe-bomber-investigation-loudermilk
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Looks that way to me, too, Jason. Info on January 6 needs the light of day. Bigly. No matter who looks bad.
Chicon
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More details regarding the less-than-sterling record of Ashley’s Capitol Police killer.
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/11/21/report-the-officer-who-killed-ashli-babbitt-had-a-long-history-of-disciplinary-and-training-problems/
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what was the reason given for the shooting?
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Someone broke the window in front of Ashley. She apparently was disgruntled with that person, but eventually was either near or climbing thru the broken window, having an American flag as a cape, when the officer, hidden in a corner, jumped out and shot her in the neck. He neither told her to stop nor identified himself as an officer with a gun. Reminder, that Babbitt was unarmed, and an Air-force veteran serving in an Intel capacity.
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Turley is wrong. She is not the only one who died that day from the police brutality. Boyland was beaten in the tunnel.
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And there were other cops who did not draw their weapons. That cop should have been arrested for murder and terminated.
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wes was the only one here who thought that shooting was justified.
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Hopefully Rubio will end this nonsense and if possible terminate the people that encouraged it.
https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/11/22/state-department-funded-cry-sessions-after-trumps-election-get-congressional-scrutiny-n2182359
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Tina, you’re right about Boyland’s death that day. First they tried to say she died of a drug overdose. But then, photos of a black female Capitol cop, beating her with a night stick kind of weapon in a west tunnel, while she was laying unmoving on the ground, appeared. However, even though that cop was identified she was not criminally tried for her death. Instead, people who attempted to rescue Boyland by stopping the beating, were arrested and charged with obstruction and engaging with an officer.
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Yup, Jason and the noose to hang pence. Nobody has ever seen it. The capitol police /secret service/fib on ground would not have allowed anyone to build a noose or transport one in on those grounds as alleged. That story bothered me.
Also, another thing, they never arrested the pipe bomber. Quemala could have been injured/killed at the dnc as the claim is that the secret service missed the bomb.
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Uh oh, janzam and Tina to whine about this “escalation” in 3, 2, 1….
https://nypost.com/2024/11/22/world-news/top-north-korean-general-wounded-by-ukrainian-strike-in-russia-report/
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Damm, the Ukranian War on North Korea is already producing victims.
This “escalation” has to stop!
https://x.com/DanLinnaeus/status/1860017352697344417
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I am sure Janzam aka “Putin’s Nurse” is perfectly ok with Putin using North Korean soldiers as cannon fodder so maybe fewer Russians will die and who cares how many Korean die, right?
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Another Russian general bites the dust. Albertus Idioticus Minimus will be in mourning.
“What was notable was the way Putin responded to this one attack but totally ignored a much larger attack involving a dozen British-made Storm Shadow missiles farther west in Kursk Oblast. This is the largest single use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles in the war and indicates something important was at the location.
The reason for the lack of notice now seems to have been simple. The Russians didn’t want to draw attention to the attack because it wounded at least one senior North Korean general and killed Lieutenant General Valery Solodchuk, First Deputy Commander of the Leningrad Military District.”
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I guess Gaetz can afford to be unemployed, his father is worth over $35 million.
Also, did anyone know his wife’s name is Luckey Gaetz?
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Still waiting for polls that support Harris’ promise that Texas and Florida are in play.
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The Dems spent over $80 million on Allred because they believed their own hype.
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Dems worried that Bondi is “too close” to Trump.
How about “wingman” Eric Holder?
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Imagine if Trump referred to Pam Bondi as “my girl”….
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Lol, he is hoping not to get court-martialed.
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Scott Bessent nominated for Treasury Sec – my choice for the job. Romney endorses Pam Bondi for AG – means she should have no trouble being confirmed.
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Elon Musk wants to know the cost of the failing MSNBC. In the last 2 months alone his wealth has grown to $312 billion dollars – a gain of over $60 billion dollars! So, he could afford the purchase.
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America
@america
The U.S. State Department held taxpayer-funded “therapy and listening sessions” for government employees after Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.
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Russia’s new hypersonic missile – can reach London in 20 minutes. And yet, there is nothing to worry about in escalating our proxy war with them….or so say our armchair warrior experts.
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ZINGER! Nancy Mace Slams RINO Adam Kinzinger Amid Restroom Controversy: “Even Though You Don’t Have Balls Anymore, You Can Still Use The Men’s Room”
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Just say you want Putin to kill as many Ukrainians and seize as much territory as possible. Own it and stop embarrassing yourself.
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Lol.
JUST IN: Liz Cheney campaigning for Kamala Harris actually hurt Harris in the final days of the election PENNSYLVANIA: 28% made less enthusiastic, 21% more MICHIGAN: 30% less enthusiastic, 23% more Data For Progress
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We don’t have a shield that could stop that weapon. But the ihop wing doesn’t care
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Live in fear, Tina. Putin is evil. He’s not suicidal.
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Why should America even have a military? Putin has NUKES!
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Russia would be glass shortly after a missile launch at Western Europe. Posting that map is hyperbole in order to drum up support for ending our aid to Ukraine.
very poor taste, and ignorant.
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Vic – They have no shame. Coming up on 3 years and they continue to pretend they don’t want Putin to win a decisive victory that kills as many Ukrainians and seizes as much territory as possible. They condemn Zelensky for not surrendering.
They fill this site with Gateway Pundit, ZeroHedge, and other garbage blogs to push Putin’s talking points. I would respect them more if they linked to Pravda.
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I hop has spoken from good Philadelphia.
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Biden’s Beotch is still handing on. Buffone will do Biden’s beotchs bidding.
https://americanliberty.news/politics/mcconnell-to-chair-influential-senate-rules-committee-raising-questions-about-trumps-agenda/phouck/2024/11/
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Trump just won a national election, winning the Electoral Votes in 31 states, yet some people here keep saying that Senators, who have not yet performed their advice-and-consent function of deciding on a Presidents picks for his cabinet, are correct in publicly saying they would not support certain people.
It seems to me that they should have to actually ask questions of each nominee first, **in a public setting**, so they can then explain why they would consent, or not consent, to the Presidents pick, and their voters would be able to understand how they came to their final decision on the matter.
It also seems to me that when the President comes from the same party as the Senator does, they would show more respect for that Presidents picks than those picked by the President of the opposition party…..for example, if Murk and Collins voted for Garland and Austin, Gaetz and Hegseth will most definitely be an improvement over those 2.
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NYC, with all due respect to my hometown brethren, and because I like you, I have to disagree with your assessment.
I believe that all of Trump’s nominees will be given a chance to have a hearing, and face the criticism that some may have, face to face. Gaetz did not, and we have to be thankful for it. Beyond the sex scandals with very young women which would have been raised (BTW, he’s a Republican male, so guilty even if proven innocent), he would have been a massive distraction AND been the story, instead of any good things Trump would do.
I do not like him as well. What he did, taking down a speaker of the House because he didn’t do enough of his very extreme agenda, was absurd. But, where he lost me was when he met up with McCarthy and embarrassed himself at the convention. I know to the hard hard hard core Trump supporters that may have been brave, it wasn’t. It was childish, petty, egocentric, and uncouth. I don’t want that kind of person with the power of the AG.
Others to attack me, but that is my reason, and I think its a valid one.
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Checks and balances. No branch of government has to bow to the others.
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o they can then explain why they would consent, or not consent, to the Presidents pick, and their voters would be able to understand how they came to their final decision on the matter.”
Zzzz… what a load of crap.
The Senate has no obligation to “show respect”, it is an independent branch.
Gaetz was not qualified in the view of many senators, there were more than 5.
Perfectly reasonable not to have a hearing circus if the outcome was already known.
And of course senators are free to have views on a nominee without a hearing, it’s not like Gaetz is someone nobody knows nothing about.
BTW, Trump’s pick for Dept of Labor is a pro-union hack, it is a shameful pick.
Let’s see the true conservatives here defend this turkey of a pick who voted for the “Pro-Act”.
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Russia’s new hypersonic missile – can reach London in 20 minutes. And yet, there is nothing to worry about in escalating our proxy war with them….or so say our armchair warrior experts.”
Zzzzz….
So we need to surrender to Putin because he has a hypersonic missile?
The Putin Toadies are pathetic.
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Posting that map is hyperbole in order to drum up support for ending our aid to Ukraine.
very poor taste, and ignorant.”
But it works.
Tina and Janzam went for it like maggots on roadkill.
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I know to the hard hard hard core Trump supporters that may have been brave, it wasn’t. It was childish, petty, egocentric, and uncouth. I don’t want that kind of person with the power of the AG.”
Hey, but let’s have a hearing, NYC didn’t know about that.
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Biden’s Beotch is still handing on. Buffone will do Biden’s beotchs bidding.”
Wait. McConnell has been R leader for decades.
He is not entitled to chair a committee?
Tina IS a clown.
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VictrC,
Appreciate your response. My original reason for writing that is not so much Gaetz withdrawing, it is more that I would rather see a unified party moving forward towards January, and those who will not give certain nominees a shot can send their NAYS privately, at which time the President-Elect can decide if he wants to risk the floor-fight or not. If he does, then the Senator will be put on the spot publicly to explain his/her/its opposition
The Democrats rarely divulge their opposition until they have seen how the Republicans would tarnish a certain nominee. The simple fact is the opposition to Matt Gaetz was of a personal nature. That is a main reason why Republicans have a hard time turning around the federal leviathan, they are always having to put in place people who have benefitted from an ever-expanding federal government, and are unwilling to fight to reduce the power their department has accrued.
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“Checks and balances. No branch of government has to bow to the others.”
-Nobody said they have “to bow to the others”.
I do prefer the back-stabbing be of a public nature, so they can’t hide their true natures.
–
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NYC fair enough. I do think though, after all is said and done, all will get their hearing, and I blieve most, if not all, will be confirmed.
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“The Senate has no obligation to “show respect”, it is an independent branch.”
-Obligation, not at all.
But, To have a unified party, it’s not much to ask, especially when the President-elect has shown that he is growing the party in all 50 states, and I’m not asking for a blanket of YAYS, I am asking for a public questioning of each nominee.
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“BTW, Trump’s pick for Dept of Labor is a pro-union hack, it is a shameful pick.
Let’s see the true conservatives here defend this turkey of a pick who voted for the “Pro-Act”.”
-Would be great to see any links about these things you can provide. If she is as bad as you say, will be great to stand next to you shouting “Vote NAY!”!
I expect that in the end, Mitch, Murk, Collins, Cornyn and others who are less conservative will be the biggest cheerleaders for this woman.
It will be fun to watch and see.
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The simple fact is the opposition to Matt Gaetz was of a personal nature.”
LOL
It wasn’t personal, it was based on the very reasonable assumption he wasn’t qualified.
Personal my ass.
I hope the Labor nominee gets shot down too.
Any R who supports the Pro-Act should not be confirmed.
Unfortunately, she will get plenty of Dem votes.
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“He is not entitled to chair a committee?”
-jason,
Come on, man. He looks as weak as Biden at times.
Can’t you stop bending over backwards for this guy? He should have picked a younger replacement his last election, and moved on to spending all of his “hard-earned cash”.
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I expect that in the end, Mitch, Murk, Collins, Cornyn and others who are less conservative”
Less conservative than the guy that nominated her?
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“Any R who supports the Pro-Act should not be confirmed.”
-Is there any chance that this bill will be taken up in Senate?
Who are the other Republicans who voted for it in the House?
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Come on, man. He looks as weak as Biden at times.”
He doesn’t have to be physically strong to be in the Senate.
With his seniority he is entitled to chair any committee he wants.
Deal with it.
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Thanks for bringing that woman up, jason. I hadn’t known about that bill. Looks horrible.
Not sure why Trump would pick her.
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https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2024/11/19/independent-contractors-sound-the-alarm-pro-act-sponsor-lori-chavez-deremer-will-not-be-labor-secretary-n2182220
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“With his seniority he is entitled to chair any committee he wants.”
-Seniority……they way you get more benefits in a……..wait for it……..union……..will McConnell come out and support The Pro-Act?
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Ok, now I do recall seeing stories about that bill, and how it deals with independent contractors.
Agree with jason, no idea why Trump, AND VANCE, would pick her for that spot.
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No, McConnell won’t support the pro-Act, he never supports pro-union bills.
If you read the link above you will understand why I oppose her.
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Thank you for the link, jason.
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“If you read the link above you will understand why I oppose her.”
-Loud and clear!
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Trump trashes every Republican who does not kiss his ass.
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Damm, NYC is finally refusing to sell out on a conservative position for Trump?
Looking out the window for flying pigs.
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So NYC and jason agree on something.
It had to happen sometime, law of averages.
No reason to panic.
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JEEZ we can’t even agree nicely here without a jab!
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“Trump trashes every Republican who does not kiss his ass.”
-Got it.
So all the Republican would have to do is kiss Trump’s ass publicly, and then just vote however he/she wanted to……….doesn’t really seem that hard to do……..
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“JEEZ we can’t even agree nicely here without a jab!”
-VictrC, if he didn’t act like a a-hole, I would have asked Bitterlaw to check the IP address.
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IP for whom?
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“IP for whom?”
-It was a joke,
If jason hadn’t responded with his usual “Looking out the window for flying pigs.”-sarcasm, I would have asked you to check the IP address for the comment written under his handle.
Alas, he was true to form – a real a-hole of an A-Hole!
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Maybe Gateway Pundit liked her.
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That was Lame.
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Advice and consent did the Rs well. Who of dementes cabinet nominees did they halt? They bent over for buttplug, Darth Raytheon, Buckcera, etc. Again, tell me how buckcera was qualified for hhs and buttplug for dot?
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Now I posted a map, according to freepasser? When? I only stated that we don’t have a shield to block those Russian missile. Simple fact which set off the IHOP from good Philadelphia.
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poor Nikita.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/ouch-team-trump-burns-neocon-nikki-haley-brutal/
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Nikita should stop the personal attacks against Tulsi. Tulsi served and Nikita did not. Nikita loves wars but won’t serve.
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Ok, I admit that I am willing to give bionduh a chance as ag. But she did not do so well handling the Ben crumps of the world regarding the Zimmerman matter. Gave him a forum for evidence tampering and fake defendants. I also don’t remember her suing the obumbler administration. Like the current Fl ag, bionduh was a benchwarmer.
I also don’t like hoeffler aka insider trader/big ag and the dol pick.
Trump began the week with great picks and ended it with some bad one.
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This is the sheot that Bionduh pulled in the Ben crump/skittles/zimmerman affair. She is just as bad as the Russian hoaxers.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/11/21/president-trump-nominates-pam-bondi-for-u-s-attorney-general-the-deep-swamp-smiles/#more-266536
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Gateway Pundit does not like Haley? Another reason to like her.
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I don’t get the IHOP nickname.
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I did not mention the map, Putina. Vic did.
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No actually your counterpart did.
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but you stupidly interjected.
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Please explain the IHOP name or don’t ask me ever again to release comments from the filter.
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I don’t give into bribes. Thanks.
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https://hedgehogreview.com/issues/in-need-of-repair/articles/the-humor-is-almost-lost-on-us
-I have not read this yet, but THE NAME!?!?
Can we sue!?!? How dare they use our beloved Hedgehog!?!?
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IHOP = blue roof?
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“Please explain the IHOP name or don’t ask me ever again to release comments from the filter.”
-Bitterlaw,
I have to say – this comment made me fondly think back to my schoolyard days!
Did you stick your tongue out at Tina when you wrote this?
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https://healthy-skeptic.com/2024/11/22/tariffs-protectionism-and-jobs/
“A political aside–I think it highly unlikely Trump will impose tariffs anything like what he has at times suggested. In his first term, tariff imposition was far less than he initially said he would implement and was primarily used as a negotiating tool. Trump knows he won because of economic issues, especially inflation, and he isn’t going to do anything that might cause a resurgence of inflation; severely damage exports, which support a lot of jobs in the US; or that otherwise causes a slowing of economic growth. He is primarily a negotiator and deal-maker and his threats about tariffs should be viewed in that context.
I am obviously strongly in favor of having every American have access to the best possible job and to good pay and benefits, which lead to a better quality of life. Free trade is one of the best ways to help achieve this. But it also needs to be trade in which all parties play by the same rules. I believe China in particular has not played by the rules, it has manipulated currency exchange rates, stolen intellectual property, provided massive subsidies to some industries and engaged in other supposedly forbidden protectionist behaviors. So I have no problem with taking steps to punish China, or other nations, for these behaviors.”
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I’m tired of her act. She is in a cult for the greatest RINO of all time but claims every other Republican is a RINO. Her nicknames are stupid. Her links from garbage conspiracy blogs fill up space. She reveres Putin and supports his brutal invasion of Ukraine. But the Cult likes her so she can stay as long as she wants.
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Russ Vought to be OMB Director, and Dr. Marty Makary named head of FDA.
Both are excellent choices.
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Bitterlaw, haven’t you seen like 50 concerts this year? Play some music and dance while reading.
I had Jamiroquai on for a while, then some country, AND western, then a little advent/Christmas music. Here is a highlight:
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Yes, I do see the irony with the pick, but it always makes me laugh, and smile, as that song was one of my favorites to perform when I was in my church choir.
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Cheers, and Goodnight!
Fight Fight Fight!
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NT
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