The winners did the best job picking the states in the POTUS election as well as the winners in the United States senate.
Six contestants picked correctly that Trump would win all seven of the battleground states but no more:
DW
Janzam
oahodges
scooter
John Goggin
Jeffrey Shaw
In the seven battleground states, Jeffrey Shaw was by far the more accurate, while Janzam made better picks on the other states listed, so that Janzam was slightly better overall on the average POTUS miss.
POTUS WINNER 7 Battleground States: Jeffrey Shaw
POTUS WINNER all States: Janzam
On the senate side, Bitterlaw only missed 1 (PA), while seven contestants missed only 2 states. Janzam missed 5 senate races, while Jeffrey Shaw missed 3.
SENATE WINNER: Bitterlaw
Then to calculate the combined overall winner, there were only three contestants who got all the POTUS states called correctly, and only missed two senate winners:
oahodges
scooter
John Goggin
oahodges only provided winner/loser predictions, without any numbers, and so between scooter and John Goggin both of whom predicted specific margins of victory in the seven battleground states, one of these two was more accurate with an average miss of only 1.42 compared to the other who was at 1.85. And the so the winner is…
COMBINED OVERALL WINNER: scooter
Lastly, individual state awards, given to contestants whose combined POTUS and SENATE predictions for each state was most accurate:
PA: Harry – Radiant Cheesecake who predicted a Trump win of 2.0 and predicted McCormick would win.
MI: Jeffrey Shaw who predicted a Trump win of 1.0 and predicted that Slotkin would win the senate race.
WI: Walt and Bitterlaw who both picked a Trump win of 2.0 and predicted Baldwin would survive over Hovde.
NV: John Goggin who predicted a Trump win in NV by 3.0 and a win by Rosen over Brown.
AZ: Vic and Harry – Radiant Cheesecake who predicted a Trump win of 5.0 and both predicted Lake would lose.
I tried to give away as many trophies as possible. If you didn’t get one you can try again in two years.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
92 responses to “Congratulations – prediction contest winners!”
PRimero and congrats to the winners!
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Were there any losers LOL?
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Meaning someone who didn’t get at least one win . . .
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I predicted 312 evs. (Vic can Remeber?).
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You all are winners. Congratulations on the chicken dinner.
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Are trophies being shipped UPS or Fed Ex? And make sure they’re well-insured.
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We shipped them media mail by USPS to save money for the winners’ awards banquet.
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I TOLD you all there WERE surprises!
THANKS DW!
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AND, if I read the things right…
Missing only 1 STATE were: Walt, jason, nycmike
Off in 2 states were Vic and Harry – Radiant Cheesecake
*****************************
Those with just TWO misses were: Walt; oahodges, Vic, jason, Scooter, John Goggin, Jeffrey Shaw and Harry – Radiant Cheesecake
PA and WI were the most frequently missed.
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CONGRATULATIONS TO SCOOTER !
We should give him a round of applause…but he IS deaf…so…there is that….
I know that Scooter will put his HHR trophy on the mantle right beside the one he got from the Trump campaign for suggesting they put Trump in a garbage truck.
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Paul
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Jason was shut out of the Winners Circle? Damn.
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Now that Scooter has cochlear implants, he is no longer deaf. He only got in the A-holes so we would be ADA compliant. Not sure if we can expel an A-hole.
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Jason was shut out of the Winners Circle? Damn.”
Sniff…
But I got a shout-out by Walt, so I guess I got something right.
retllaw
November 9, 2024 at 2:02 pm
AND, if I read the things right…
Missing only 1 STATE were: Walt, jason, nycmike
Off in 2 states were Vic and Harry – Radiant Cheesecake
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My problem was I was too lazy to put in the margins so I just told DW to copy someone else’s … I guess I picked the wrong person.
Either that or the stupid voters didn’t understand my prediction and didn’t vote as supposed to.
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If I were a political cartoonist, I would draw a sinking ship, just the stern sticking out of the water, and the ship’s name on the side would be USS Democrats, and around the ship would be rats swimming away in every direction, and I would draw the names of all these hacks who have been persecuting Trump, who are going to leave now rather than hanging around to be fired.
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So far, the PLUSES of Trump winning the election:
2. migrant caravan in Mexico heading toward U.S. has shrunken considerably
3. the country has breathed a collective sigh of relief and the hateful talk has subsided. I don’t think I have heard anyone on TV call Trump “Hitler” in 2 days now. Maybe we are heading back to Americans being more civil…
ADDED:
4. all the lawfare court trials against Trump are being tossed out (reduced cost of government…)
5. Kamala and Biden are no longer calling Trump “Hitler” and the “biggest threat to democracy” since Attila the Hun, and I have not heard Trump call Kamala and Biden bad names since the election–so at least THEY are now toning down the volume of the hate speech and being more civil.
6. Qatar kicks out Hamas leader.
PLEASE CUT AND PASTE AS YOU ADD MORE>>>)
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7. hopefully, “The View” will be cancelled…
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Bitter was wrong about PA and lost a $100 bet being wrong on GA and he gets to be in the winner’s circle??
I guess it’s nice to be the blog owner!
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You guys can keep the trophies.
I got $100 for the York ASPCA dogs.
GFYs.
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This was asked on the polling grades page, but I will answer it here:
Hey DW,
How new or old in the election cycle were the polls? Could the age of the poll impact on tier accuracy of final election results–like if a poll was back in April and election was Nov.?
I ONLY included polls that were Trump vs. Harris, and did not go back to April. And when Harris took over in July, the initial polling was all over the place, and these polls were almost entirely replaced by later polls.
I don’t think any of these were earlier than September, though there might be a few like that, but the vast majority were mid-September or later.
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Missing only 1 STATE were: Walt, jason, nycmike”
Walt, let’s have a tie breaker.
Whoever missed the state with fewer EVs wins.
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Bitter, aren’t you proud of Scooter.
A-hole has come a long way.
And of course we knew the overall winner would be an A-hole due to our innate superiority.
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jason, I think you missed just one STATE for who wins POTUS. I think I inadvertently put you down for missing one, AND for missing two.
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Don’t vomit, write up on Bob Casey on the Scranton Times-Tribune. Just an except, it is all like this.
Widely regarded as well-respected, well-spoken and intelligent, Casey also has been called low-key and stoic — the opposite of a blustering firebrand in Congress. That’s not to say he has not been assertive, determined and effective. But his approach has tended toward analytical and reserved, measured and methodical, bookish and bipartisan.
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I hope McCormick has got some observers counting these votes.
“She laid out the senator’s possible path to victory, pointing to “tens of thousands of provisional ballots favorable” to Mr. Casey. Indeed, 20,000 provisional ballots — which are cast by voters whose eligibility hasn’t been proved — are in Philadelphia County, 12,600 in Allegheny County and 6,500 in Montgomery County.
In Chester County, 3,500 provisional ballots and 1,800 military ballots remain, and in Bucks County 5,200 provisional ballots, 2,500 mail ballots and up to 3,000 military ballots are outstanding.
“Pennsylvanians deserve to have their voices heard, and as state officials have made clear, counties across Pennsylvania need more time to tabulate remaining votes,” Ms. McDaniel said.
Mr. Casey’s doubling down on his refusal to concede follows a lawsuit filed by Mr. McCormick’s campaign challenging the provisional ballots in Philadelphia County, which Ms. McDaniel said was a sign that the “McCormick campaign has acknowledged these provisional ballots could impact the outcome of the election.”
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Illegal ballots could impact an election? Stunning.
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As somebody who has lived in PA since 1986 – longer than Casey’s public career – Casey is an empty suit and a disgrace to his dad.
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Look at the scoreboard, A-hole.
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Thank you DW for your continual work updating these polls and then graphing and calculating people’s predictions. It was yeoman’s work putting all of this together, which no one else wanted to tackle.
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Yes DW, thank you so much for all of your hard work. Truly a great job and deserving of the biggest trophy of them all
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Paul, stop embarrassing yourself.
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Warren Petersen
@votewarren
The left is suing to extend the time to determine the election. I just authorized the AZ Senate to intervene and defend existing law so we can determine the outcome as soon as possible. It has already taken too much time! And next session will re-introduce bills to get election results, night of.ok
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Thanks jan, and I am not done yet…I need to finish filling out all the polling as I was swamped that last week. I will also complete the polling grades, but cannot do so yet, as those western states are still counting votes.
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We should start with lower level people like Dana White and Joe Rogan.
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Look at the scoreboard, A-hole.”
Zzzzzzz…
You said yourself…
“Illegal ballots could impact an election? Stunning”
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Joe Rogan makes $30 million a year.
Dana White makes $20 million a year.
I wish I was “low level”
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Another Soros DA bites the dust.
“If you’re ready for even more post-election good news, here you go: Deborah Gonzalez, the District Attorney who recused herself from prosecuting the alleged killer of Laken Riley, has suffered a brutal beatdown at the ballot box. Gonzalez lost to Independent candidate Kalki Yalamanchili, who garnered nearly 60 percent of the vote as opposed to Gonzalez’s 40 percent.
Gonzalez was first elected in 2020 as part of a wave of George Soros-funded candidates who swept into office in the wake of the Black Lives Matter Movement. She reportedly promised voters “diversion programs, rehabilitation, and shorter sentences for nonviolent offenders,” meaning she was returning criminals to the streets as fast as she could.
Gonzalez made headlines earlier this year when she removed herself from the case of Jose Antonio Ibarra, an illegal from Venezuela who is accused of murdering nursing student Laken Riley after she had gone out for a morning run. Instead of prosecuting Ibarra herself, Gonzalez instead appointed a special prosecutor, saying, “We will not allow this or any case to be used for political gain.” At that time, she was under scrutiny from Georgia Governor Brian Kemp for failing to secure even one guilty verdict during her tenure as DA.”
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Has AK updated the vote since Wednesday?
They are even slower than AZ.
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I hope the republicans can’t keep the Latino surge in rep voting trend.
They’re too racist for their own good but Dems absolutely need to stem the tide or they’re done for a generation.
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I think this chart proves I was right on Dem spending 500 million on abortion.
She was preaching to the choir.
32% of Americans support killing a fetus all the way to term. Kamala got 87% of this vote. The small percentage that rank abortion as the most important issue are in this group.
Another third (33%) think it should be legal in “most cases” meaning they probably don’t believe in killing viable fetuses. This vote was split down the middle Trump-Harris 50-50.
Another 32% think it should be illegal in most cases or not at all. Trump carried this group by an astounding 90%-10%.
https://x.com/RCPolitics/status/1854905411490435190
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BTW, Trump was +15% with Catholics.
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They’re too racist for their own good but Dems absolutely need to stem the tide or they’re done for a generation.”
These trends are hard to reverse.
The black vote will continue to trend R too, albeit at a slower pace.
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“They’re too racist for their own good but Dems absolutely need to stem the tide or they’re done for a generation.”
These trends are hard to reverse.
The black vote will continue to trend R too, albeit at a slower pace.”
Yes, once their eyes are opened it’s hard to close them
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oh the race in Maine-02 keeps getting closer and closer. The Dem lead is now down to 890 votes. I have no idea what is left to count. But every 12 hours or so it seems it gets a bit closer.
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I love everyone on this site.
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Trump might not be as bad as I thought.
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Don’t double your meds!
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now 656 in maine-02
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https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1855368259035332806?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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”Yes, once their eyes are opened it’s hard to close them”
So true. I do think there has been a long term realignment, whereas both parties are comprised of different demographics than were seen a few decades ago.
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I hope Whatley’s right!
Michael Whatley
@ChairmanWhatley
An operational update on Election Integrity: The RNC, our state parties and legal teams remain fully engaged in every state where votes are still being counted — including Arizona, Maine, Nevada and Pennsylvania. We will continue to aggressively protect the vote and defend every Republican candidate throughout vote counting, canvassing, and tabulation. We will be on the ground until all votes are counted and finalized
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Stop being a wuss with no principles
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Yes you’ll win them over by being racists. Good luck with that
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Reps will screw themselves over soon enough.
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Arizona
CANDIDATE
Ruben Gallego Democratic 1,407,513 49.6%
Kari Lake Republican 1,370,448 48.3%
Eduardo Quintana Green 59,178 2.1%
83.5% votes counted
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Whoopie Goldberg Blames Inflation on Grocery Store Owners, Calls Them “Pigs” – National Grocers Association Fires Off Letter to Show’s Executive Producer
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The percentages between Lake and Gallegos have gotten a bit smaller, but the number of actual ballots seem almost stagnant. I’m beginning to lose faith she will be able to climb out of the hole of defeat.
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Trump dons his master troller hat, offers to pay off Harris campaign’s 20 million dollar debt with his leftover funds.
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Bl, Paulies comment is not appropriate. Thanks.
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Trump- Pompeo and Niki will nkt e invited to join the admin.
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Gone
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I removed one of Paul’s earlier.
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He is getting bad, dw. . Thanks Bl
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Haley wants to run in 2028. She doesn’t need to be part of a lame duck administration when she has her own record. Vance will be the heir apparent anyway.
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I thought Pompeo would be asked to join in some capacity, but not Haley. Pompeo did campaign for trump too.
Still think Grenell becomes Sos. However, nasty Rino, Quittens, booted him from the 2012 campaign because of his sexual orientation.
Finally, there are rumblings that Wrong Wray will retire before trump assumes office . You heard it from me first yesterday.
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BREAKING: Election officials in Arizona confirm they managed to count 1,230 ballots today, a new record, breaking yesterday’s record of only 1,214! They will try to break a new record again tomorrow, on their way to finishing ALL ballots by the year 2039.
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
19m
2016 – New Hope
2020 – Empire Strikes Back
2024 – Return of the Jedi (but without Ewoks)?
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I wish it was Revenge of the Jedi.
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”Will be revenge of the Jedi.”
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I don’t think trump should go after demented or quemala using lawfare.
However, I do expect that Comedy, Fraudci, and others to face jail time.
Fraudci for lying about the origins of the China virus and the vaccine,
Comedy and others for promoting the false, Russia hoax; engaging in a criminal conspiracy; and violating rights.
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Maybe this guy needs to look in the mirror and ask why his hero Harris called Hitler to congratulate him, and why is other hero Biden called Hitler and invited him to lunch at the white house.
Derek
@DerekNeverFails
I have cut ties with my MAGA father and sister. I will never, ever speak to them again.
I’ll spit on their graves.
If you still hang out with your “friends” or family that voted for fascism, you need a long look in the mirror.
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Popcorn sales soar as Republicans sit and watch the Democrat circular firing squad.
Nancy Pelosi fired the first salvo at Joe Biden, still grinning after his VP’s brutal loss on Tuesday. With those shots still echoing through Happy Valley, James Carville was seen quickly loading, aiming and firing at the vitriolic vixens of The View. But before vixen Sunny Hostin went down, she managed to take out “hypocritical Hispanics”. Through the smoke and chaos, Harris bundler Lindy Li took her best shot at Barack Obama, who had been seeking his record-tying fourth term as president.
Joy Reid quickly joined the free-for-all in scatter-shot fashion, taking out white women, Hispanics, Black men, and seemingly everyone but Bert and Ernie. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania senator, Uncle Festerman, was spotted blasting away at his own constituents.
As the guns fell silent, lone survivor Kamala Harris could be seen walking away, cackling, arm-in-arm with Liz Cheney.
Great viewing.
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Lake is now trailing by over 45,000 votes. (Garrett Archer).
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Arizona is formally called for Trump by nbc,,Cn and n, and abc. Faux and ap have not yet called it. Margin is over 184,000 votes.
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DDHQ indicates Gallegos beat lake.
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Here’s hoping Kari Lake retires from politics.
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Gallego wins, per DDHQ.*
Trumps margin is 184,0000, or 6.2%.
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184,000*
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Ap just called Arizona for trump (fox has not yet).
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Trump will be xxxxx
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Paul. Meds
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U.S. Senate R. candidates % of vote who LOST:
WI–48.5%
MI–48.3%
AZ–48.2%
NV–46.4%
VA–45.9%
NM–45%
MD–44.4%
NJ–44.3%
CA–41.7%
NY–41.1%
MN–40.5%
WA–40.5%
MA–40.4%
RI–40.1%
CT–39.6%
DE–39.5%
HI–31.9%
_____________
Rs who WON Senate seats % of vote
CO–75.5%
WV–68.9%
ND–66.5%
TN–63.8%
UT–62.6%
NE–62.8%
MS–63.2%
IN–58.6%
MO–55.6%
FL–55.6%
NE–53.6%
TX–53.1%
MT–52.8%
plus the very close ones in PA, OH
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https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/09/us/4b-movement-trump-south-korea-wellness-cec/index.html
Good thing I am married. Now I won’t be passed over for a TDS psycho hook up.
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I predict the Republicans will end up with exactly 218 in the House.
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ALL MAGA WILL BE XXXXXXX.
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Trump must be XXXX
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218 is too low. 220 to 224, with 222 most likely
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Biden’s internal polling had Trump winning 400 EVs. Per an Obama official.
Between that and donations being withheld, it was time to reach into the DEI bag.
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NT
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WOW !!!!!!
I won the prediction contest.
I’m one happy A-hole !!!!!
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