Please review the new 2024 Polling Grades page linked here and on the main page and look over the format and please make suggestions. This is a work in progress and I cannot fill in many of the pollsters because the final margin is not sure in many states.
The first list shown here is for pollsters who only polled ONE state. The other grid will be more complex for multiple state pollsters.
Believe it or not, there are two listed here that were worse then Selzer.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
85 responses to “Your Input Requested”
First
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WHo won the prediction?
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I don’t understand what we are supposed to do with the pollsterthread.
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you don’t have to do anything with it…just review it and if you have suggestions for improvement, I will welcome it.
Its a reference. So in the future, you see a poll come out, click the link and see if its a decent pollster or if they stink like Selzer.
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Too soon for prediction contest winner
Several races in senate not decided.
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Trafalgar was very good once again.
The @trafalgar_group #Polling Record in #BattlegroundStates with 95% or more of the vote counted.
GA Trump by 2.3 we said 2.4 off by .1
NC Trump by 3.4 we said 3.2 off by .2
PA Trump by 2.3 we said 1.7 off by .6
MI Trump by 1.6 we said .4 off by 1.2
WI Trump by .9 we said -.8 off by 1.7
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one observation from the polling grade reports is how most skewed blue and only a few to red.
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Kamala doing another campaign speech.
Showing why she deserved to lose.
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How does one go from “Hitler! Fascist!” to “Congratulations, you ran a good race!”
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DW, the same way she called Joe Biden, a rapist and racist, and then gladly accepted a high profile job offer from him.
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Dw, on a slightly different note, what about trumps pollster? Isn’t it cilliza?
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Fabrizio
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pwreckedcrew
I suspect it is going to be a complete shock to the Dem partisans that the two federal cases brought by DOJ are going to end quite abruptly with little or no fanfare.
DOJ will likely withdraw the appeal of the dismissal in the 11th Cir, and file a simple one paragraph request to dismiss the indictment in the DC case. Maybe by Friday. There really isn’t anything to do.
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Dw, Bl, or Vic, I have a comment in moderation. It is shipwrecks tweet about the doj/trumps 2 federal cases.
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Shipwreck indicated that the following steps can be taken by unjustice:
Withdraw the appeal before the 11th circuit appealing the box doc hoax case.
Send notification to judge Chutfuck to dismiss the dc /j6/ no obstruction case.
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He said those actions are quick and easy to do. Simple court filings and the cases disappear.
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Any updates on the last senate races and the status of control of the House?
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Albert…I am working on that right now and hope to start a new thread tomorrow with the updates.
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I just watched that clip from the other thread. Last night Juan Williams and Karl rove got heated about the whole “she lost because of racism and mostly misogyny”
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Juan Williams is a tool and should be fired
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Awesome! Thanks DW!
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McCormick’s lead down to 28000.
I guess they are still counting.
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did anyone watch Komrade K soeech
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No, I go to bed at midnight here. Got up at 5 am, thinking that fake ballots came in, and calls were reversed. So, I did a demented and took a nap. Sue me for missing quemalas boring speech. Was she sober?
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Approved
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Headed for an automatic recount unless the lead goes above .5%
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I watched it. Zzzzzzzzz
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I have never heard she has a drinking problem but you have followed her for years.
She conceded and took the opportunity to imply she was better than Trump for doing it. Said the fight for issues will go on. She also scheduled it for a time when most people were still at work.
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Your summary is putting me to sleep again.
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52% of suburban women voted for Trump.
“Wine chicks” designation hardest hit.
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lmao
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Juan Williams and others were vile. They blamed white males Hispanic males and black males for being “anti woman”.
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The concession was a rally speech.
I hear she is being sued for using Trump’s “fight, fight, fight”.
Her lawyer said no, “Fight, fight, fight” by Trump originated from Hitler and was Nazi code while “Fight, Fight, Fight” originated from her days as a cheerleader was peace and love code.
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I do have to say that this is definitely not ax bad as 2016. It’s almost as if most were resigned to the fact he was going to win.
such a decisive win definitely helped, as does winning the popular vote. It took the wind out of a lot of the psychos sail.
what bothers me most is people pretending she was some sort of transformational character with an amazing history of exceptional laurels.
she was a woman who couldn’t get 2% in her own primary, was chosen for her senate seat originally, got the VO nod because of her check boxes not ability and was a horrible candidate.
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I wonder how Tgca celebrated. I always suspected he would become a mass shooter but I am not aware of any gay vegans shooting up Florida
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He was a strange dude. He hated DeSantis because he dared run against Trump.
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Another irony of this election?
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Had the Ds not cheated Trump out of a victory in 2020 (through acceptance of mail in ballots in violation of existence of various State laws, and butting in by various judges and courts to allow that), He would have finished his 2 terms and not have been running in 2024 and would be fading off into history?
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And Dems would have had a better chance in 2024 with a lame duck Trump.
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exactly. And who knows how the economy would have been these past four years under his admin, I suspect better.
At the end of the day it probably would have been DeSantis against Newsome or Harris
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Election aftermath for the D party?
What will they do? (I have a good idea of what they will do…)
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What will Ds do in government and Congress?
Cooperate with Trump or fight back?
Easy. Fight Trump tooth and nail to prevent any success in anything. And you stop Trump from accomplishing his agenda in the House. D House members come mostly from heavy D big cities that are usually safe havens for nuttiness and for being monkey wrenches.
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Will Trump learn his bad choices and actions during his first term?
–will he first select people to be inn key inner circle slots at the white house who really were not good choices to begijn with and who he later fired?
–will he (PLEASE) NOT pick R Senators and (especially now) congressmen to serve in his cabinet and open the possibility of having Ds get elected to fill those then vacant slots in special elections)?
–will he clean house and get rid of 2nd, 3rd and 4th layer management in DOJ, FBI, State Dept., etc., etc.
–will he ACTUALLY take steps to get rid of the Dept. of Energy and Dept. of Education and do a good cutting of unnecessary jobs/positions in the federal bureaucracy?
–will he bring in to government positions people like Haley and DeSantis, Larry Hogan, and Youngkin, etc. to hold key positions–or will he still treat anyone who ever ran against him or said anything bad about him like crap and ignore them and not take their help, expertise and counsel?
–will he present a continuation of his current and past persona of being an a$$hole or will he truly try to bring the country together and reduce the divisive nature of things? And control his thumbs and mean spirited tweets or THINK before he speaks and refrain from saying goofball things that only give his opposition ammo and fuel Democrat ;campaign coffers?
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Did anyone notice all the ranked choice voting measures that were on the ballot yesterday, with the groups pushing this garbage designed to benefit dems putting tens of millions into getting it on ballots.
CO, DC, ID, NV, OR, SD Thank God they all lost, but not by margins big enough.
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Good questions by Walt, we will have to see.
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What about in Alaska?
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Jason, right now its 51% for getting rid of it, 49% for keeping it. Going to be tight.
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DDHQ CALLS ARIZONA FOR TRUMP
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Quemala spent $1 billion.and is in debt of $20 million.
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question. What happens to Harris – Does she go to the dust bin of history, or will she run in the primaries in 2028.
Walz is done nationally. Forever.
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WI SENATE 98+% counted
Tammy Baldwin 1,672,550 49.4%
Eric Hovde 1,643,592 48.5%
Phil Anderson Independent 42,3491. 3%
Thomas Leager America First Party
28,7170.8%
TWO third party candidates may have cost Hovde the election. I have never understood these weirdos who run and KNOW they have no shot at winning, only a shot of messing things up. I have no use for them.
Same thing happened in WV in Manchin last successful election to U.S. Senate, but got less than 50% of the vote due to other candidates besides the D and R. Gave Manchin an extra 6 years in the Senate. smh
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Don’t count Walz out. He can run a pick six and will the match.
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Harris is done. She’ll be ambassador of Belgium in the next Dem. Presidency.
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Early Odds for President in 2028
JD Vance (+350)
Michelle Obama (+500)
Gavin Newsom (+550)
Ron DeSantis (+800)
Tulsi Gabbard (+1000)
Tucker Carlson (+1400)
Hillary Clinton (+1400)
Nikki Haley (+2500)
Kamala Harris (+2500)
Oprah Winfrey (+2500)
Josh Shapiro (+3300)
Donald Trump Jr. (+4000)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+5000)
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (+6600).
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No, Kamala and Walz are both done politically.
Stick a fork in ’em.
They MAY make a bunch of $$$ on the speaker circuit for D events, etc.–esp. Kamala. She is always good for a LAUGH. 🙂
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from a UK booking site:
ODD % CHANCE TO WIN
JD Vance (R)+450 18.2%
Gavin Newsom (D) +575 14.8%
Ron DeSantis (R)+700 12.5%
Michelle Obama (D)+950 9.5%
Josh Shapiro (D)+1000 9.1%
Kamala Harris (D)+1200 7.7%
Andy Beshear (D)+1200 7.7%
Nikki Haley (R)+1200 7.7%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)+1300 7.1%
Wes Moore (D) +1700 5.6%
Tom Cotton (R)+2000 4.8%
Glenn Youngkin (R)+2500 3.9%
Aaron Rodgers (I)+3000 3.2%
Dwayne Johnson (D)+3500 2.8%
Mark Cuban (D)+3500 2.8%
The Field+2000 4.8%
*Includes, among others, Ted Cruz (R), Lyle Doggett (D), Brian Kemp (R), Gretchen Whitmer (D), Marco Rubio (R)
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MDher another +123
U.S. Senate
Alsobrooks 1,289,265
Hogan 1,119,088
Scott (Libertarian) 59,968
Prince Georges county gave Alsobrooks +198K net margin
Montgomery county gave her another +123K net margin
__________________
MD CD 6
Delaney (D) winning by 300 votes. 😦
Neil Parrot (R)
Farthest west MD CD. includes Garrett, Allegheny , Washington county (Hagerstown), Frederick, and Gaithersburg area [big D area] in another county.
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Dust bin
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CNN post mortem panel:
Too many abortions ads.
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Michelle Obama will be 64 in 2029, I very much doubt she would have any interest in leaving her mansions in DC mansion or Martha’s Vineyard to run in Dem primaries.
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exactly and I think the electorate as a whole will be looking to get younger, plus she’ll be 20 years past his first term. Her shelf life ended awhile ago. Talk about energizing the R base and turning off men. They don’t want to be lectured by someone bigger and taller and more masculine than they are
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Thank the good Lord that we have… been unburdened by what has been.
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Rumored today … Thomas Massie for Department of Agriculture.
A MIT grad with an Organic Farm and Grassfed beef who lives in a home that is not dependent on the grid. Hi AC is powered by Tesla batteries…Sad he lost his wife recently.
Yea on that pick.
Still hoping for DeSantis as Attorney General.
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As a Floridian I love DeSantis, and AG is a great spot for him. The DOJ needs a vigorous house cleaning. And I believe his background as a Navy JAG would add to his effectiveness.
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Regarding Massie, I don’t want Trump trying to appoint a bunch of Senators, even from Red states like KY. Too much risk with special elections.
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DRUDGE says pressure mounting on Biden to pardon Trump of all charges he has/might be convicted of in all these court cases pending.
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Biden admin is planning for a possible migrant surge before Trump takes office
https://www.aol.com/news/biden-admin-planning-possible-migrant-220907280.html
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“Biden admin is planning for a possible migrant surge before Trump takes office”
-Every single elected official, especially with an (R) after his/her/its name, should go on camera and simply say “To the Democrats named Biden and Harris, currently in charge of supposedly enforcing border laws, DO YOUR JOB! Enforce the laws on the books! Close the border! Protect our country!”
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“As a Floridian I love DeSantis, and AG is a great spot for him. The DOJ needs a vigorous house cleaning. And I believe his background as a Navy JAG would add to his effectiveness.”
-RDS is term-limited, correct? Would AG be too contentious a position for him to accept, if he still has aspirations to become President?
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54 Senators would be great! How many more votes can the Dems find?
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Cheers! and Goodnight!
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First the first time an update did not show Casey gaining on McCormick, the lead actually expanded to over 30k after being as low as 28k.
Might mean some residuals came in from red counties and Philadelphia stopped counting?
I know Allegheny has no more votes.
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RE PA SENATE, I am not sure if they have all dropped but there was a lot left from Cambriia county, which had some kind of Election Day issue. Those are being counted manually and dropped. This is all per Charlie Kirk’s podcast. He had Chris (ballot chaser/data guy on from Pa.) He indicated that Cambria was a favorable county. I think there were 20,000 ballots total.
It appears that McCormicks leas increased several thousand. Looks like it’s about 30,000. They suggested that not much else was available.
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Anyone heard anything about this counting?
I saw Rubio on TV last night saying “my colleague Bob Casey needs to concede”.
On the other hand the NBC site says there are still 188k votes left (?). If this was true I doubt the networks would have called it for Trump, his margin is only like 140k.
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Ok tks Tina.
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Follow up thoughts:
Cambria had the scanning issue day of election. I think Mcmirmick wins this,
In nevada, the senate race now liens to the drat. Our side had a 5,000 vote lead now it’s a 13,000 vote deficit. Trump still leads by over 51,000. I think it was 60,000.
Allowing for counts 3 days after and un dated mail in is just not right.
Arizona – lake is trailing by a small margin now. Trumps lead expands.
DDHQ has called Az and Nv for Trump.
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Also the Nv independent has called the presidential race for trump.
I just noticed ap has not. Perhaps, faux or Cn and n called those races for trump?
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Rosen now has a 13k vote lead in Nevada, I guess they are still delivering non-postmarked ballots.
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I took a look to see what is still available for Lake. She is down about 40k votes.
The problem I see is that although Trump is winning Maricopa, she is not, and that is the biggest county.
In her favor some smaller counties where she is ahead are behind the 70% count for the state, so she will gain some votes there.
Maricopa is a big county so I don’t know if the outstanding areas are more favorable to her than what has been counted so far.
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Scott Jennings decimates the Never Trumper, Bulwark, Lincoln Project and Dispatch crowd.
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GOP retains PA senate, House still undecided.
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I don’t think running for President is in the cards in 2028 for DeSantis now. He is by far the best leader in the GOP…but… JD Vance is a better communicator, more personable and will get Trumps endorsement. Of course it’s early and anything can happen.
I would support and vote for RDS without hesitation. Bottom line … having him in a high leverage position like AG would maximize his impact for addressing the corruption that 12 years of Obama & Biden brought. I just don’t want my son in law in DC in the DOJ for selfish reasons 😂. He aspires to be a Federal Judge anyway.
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Ain’t that the truth.
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NT
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Scott Jennings is pretty awesome…only reason to watch CNN. Clips are good enough though.
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