Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
123 responses to “Election Day!”
primero, otra vez!
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Trump jumped to 62% at Polymarket and now leads by 5 at Predictit.
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Well, we’ll know soon enough. I just can’t reconcile the confidence of (D)s on my X feed with early returns and current betting site figures.
Happy Election Day everyone!
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the D stands for denial to most of them. They also know that they fraud at their finger tips. Having done it before
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RCP betting averge now jumped to 20. After the Iowa poll it went down 9…then slowly went back up 13 and then to 17 and now at 20.
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Polls open at 7:00. I got on line at 6:30. I am 15th in line.
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When you say the RCP average is at 20, does that mean the margin that Trump is ahead of Harris or something else?
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I noticed that AtlasIntel in their last poll have Trump winning all seven battleground states….the same as myself.
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TIPP FINAL POLL
Trump leads 48.6% to 48.3%.
atlas intel
Trump 49.2
Harris. 48.1
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Oahodges,
Betting odds data.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
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Thanks, John!
Checked it quickly to see what they were in 2020, and they had Biden up by the same margin or more in all of the betting sites listed, so this is a hopeful sign!
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let’s go. I early voted a few weeks ago.
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@donwill94062871
In 2016 the media carried water for the heir apparent, HRC, and when she lost they could not believe it. In retaliation, the media spent the last eight years vilifying Trump and his supporters. They pushed every false narrative under the sun to defeat him. How will they handle Kamala’s defeat? It is ultimately their defeat.
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7AM norning exits look good for Trump
Greater Bittersville
Trump 94%
Harris 5%
Stein 1%
Pennsylvania
Trump 50%
Harris 47%
Others 3%
Senate
McCormick 49%
Casey 48%
Hazou 1%
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Forgot to credit IncaPolls, sorry.
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Bl, did you encounter the wine chicks while voting?
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Jason, 2 questions, please:
Is there really a place named Bittersville or is that a play on BL’s moniker?
Where did you find the early exit numbers?
thanks
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Tina – Don’t spike the football until the clock says 00:00. Plus the recounts. And lawsuits. And riots.
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I don’t know any wine chicks. Jason is the one who hangs out with the wine drinking crowd.
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Voter #50 this morning in Morgantown, PA. Looked like around 100 people in line when I left the booth. Based on the chatter there were a decent amount of first timers. I expect a too big to rig result for Trumpy!! We shall see….
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HHR and the country wait to see how Jason voted.
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I was going to offer Jason some homemade limoncello, if he voted for trump, but I am sure the fib/unjustice is watching.
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Is there really a place named Bittersville or is that a play on BL’s moniker?”
Yes, remarkable coincidence but it does exists.
https://yorkblog.com/yorkspast/smeltzer-cigar-factory-bittersville/
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Florida looks like a blood bath and the Panhandle has not yet even opened. I don’t think we need to worry about hanging chads.
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I slept on it. I will decide at the voting booth.
I will also give a full report of my precinct in Lower Windsor Township, PA.
Let’s see how many Amish buggies will be there.
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I was going to offer Jason some homemade limoncello, if he voted for trump, but I am sure the fib/unjustice is watching.”
Damm, Tina just upped the ante.
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There were some comments about how out of it quemala looked last night. Her closing speech was maybe 10 minutes. There was no joy when she boarded her plane back to the swamp.
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Their annual Christmas celebration is cancelled every year because the residents are too angry.
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Where did you find the early exit numbers?”
And some of you doubt IncaPolls.
GFYs
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Ok off to vote.
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At least Hillary had fireworks to cancel. Kamala? Nada.
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I make one last appeal to Jason to vote for Trump
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Have the Democrats in East St. Louis gone to Federal Court to keep the polls open until Harris wins yet?
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Every A-hole stands alone. I hope he votes for Trump because I don’t feel like typing Mr. Irrelevant for 4 years but I will if necessary.
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NEW: Former VP Press Sec Marc Lotter gives a grim warning to Democrats:
“The math doesn’t work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states. In urban areas, they are down 1.4 million votes.”
“In the battleground states. Among women voters, rural voters have over performed early by 300,000.”
“Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on Election Day.”
“The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states.”
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and all day we will be inundated with anecdotal evidence as to what is happening. I instead will follow the early voting page of Florida as it now is filled with the election day vote. If the GOP ballots continue strong and the lead goes UP from 10, then that might predict the national mood
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…..and still no Robbie. The mystery continues.
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As of late last night, Florida was R+10.1 R+837,257. With only 300,000 e-day votes in, the Rs are outvoting the D’s 2-1, and the lead is now R+10.5 and R+907,000
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So much for the cannibalization theory
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From what I’m hearing on X, Rural areas are turning out early.
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Florida is a Dem wasteland. Unless all those 50+ women voters are voting D, like Selzer says.
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First 30 minutes of Florida election day voting:
🔴 REP: 43,503 (50.97%) [R+27.3]
🔵 DEM: 20,190 (23.66%)
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…..and still no Robbie. The mystery continues.”
He will be here if Trump loses.
And he will claim Trump will be the nominee in 2028.
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R’s are winning e-day in Dem Orange and Palm Beach counties, and almost even in Alachua (UofF).
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Vote like the Dems are coming after your little boys’ testicles with a knife!!
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looks like the Florida cannibals left room for dessert
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Doom awaits…
Chicon
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if this continues, how can they not call Florida for Trump the moment the polls close
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One Amish buggy but I didn’t see any Amish.
York Co. Rs had a nice little red tent staffed by some older ladies.
Dems had a desk with a union guy and a sign listing all the good thinks Dems and unions have done for us including Social Security and Medicare and Unemployment Benefits and Paid Vacations.
I voted for Trump. Yes, I feel like I violated my principles but I talked myself into the idea I wasn’t really voting for Vance the Isolationist and Trump seems in good shape for 78. Weak, I. know, GFYs.
Then there was I want to be here attacking Trump’s stupid tariffs and trade wars and his stupid “plan” for ending the war in Ukraine without Bitter telling me I cannot offer opinions without voting. As everyone knows, I am very sensitive to what others think.
Finally, homemade limoncello.
GFYs.
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i want to apologize to everyone here. I had every intention of keeping the polls page up to date. It was just not possible with the hundreds of polls released the last 10 days. AZ, GA, and MI are nearly done, but way behind on WI, PA, NV and NC
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Welcome back Chicon.
I knew you weren’t dead.
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Jason proves that he actually is able to let good sense overcome his disagreements. And that he can be bought for a drink from a woman.
Well done.
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thanks jason, no explanations needed, everyone except the dead votes the best they can.
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When will lord arsehat update?
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Welcome back. GFY
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Polymarket Swing States
Trump
PA 61-39
GA 71-30
NV 63-39
AZ 80-21 !
NC 68-34
Kamala
WI 54-46
MI 61-40
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DW, They will never instacall FL. They never do it for South Carolina either
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Some posted on X
“I found out my parents voted for Harris. I am not longer placing flowers on their graves”
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Jason can now resume his honored place among the A-holes.
Sorry, Scooter. You won’t be moving up.
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DW, They will never instacall FL. They never do it for South Carolina either”
The ole “too close to call” BS
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I hope they wait to call FL until at least the panhandle polls are closed, no matter how big the spread is on the east side of the state. It’s just the right thing to do.
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Yeah, let’s not get out hope for any “quick” calls on our side. Only for the drats. Designed to suppress our side and assist their side. If she is being blown out, they need to protect the down ballot
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They will definitely wait until the panhandle. The famous FL call for Gore in 2000 happened around 7:30p. Crazy to think they thought that was appropriate. Since then they always wait for all polls to close.
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Actually the infamous call for Gore.
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I see the mayors in the Pacific Northwest are prepared for riots. There’s a first for everything, I guess..
Chicon
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Polymarket Senate
OH Moreno 62-39
AZ Gallego 75-26
MI Slotkin 78-23
VA Kaine 95-5
MT Sheehy 85-16
PA Casey 76-22
NV Rosen 83-17
MD Alsobrooks 94-7
TX Cruz 85-15
NE Fisher 82-17
WV Justice 99-1
Senate control
R 82-18
House control
D 51-49
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Jason can now resume his honored place among the A-holes.”
Ok, Bitter gave the real reason I voted for Trump, to ward off the ambitious A-hole.
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Never will forget 20 years ago, 2004 election night coverage. Polls closed in South Carolina. NBC News data analysts claimed it was too close to call.
Tim Russert put a grave look on his face and said to Tom Brokaw, well if its too close to call in South Carolina, then its going to be a long night for the President. Brokaw nodded assent.
Bush 43 won South Carolina that night 58/41 over Kerry.
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Even in Broward, the election day lead for Dems is only +6.6
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Long line of Dem voters in rural areas. Could be a problem.
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And that he can be bought for a drink from a woman.”
Shhhhh….
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DW, do you have a link to follow Florida?
Thanks.
Chicon
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Why is that one horse going the other way? He has R ballots for the incinerator?
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“Jason can now resume his honored place among the A-holes.
Sorry, Scooter. You won’t be moving up.”
BASTARDS !!!!!!!
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Use this to follow the FL vote
https://www.freshtake.vote/2024G/
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Morning Chicon.
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CNN (Pravda) Headlines
Trump describes US as an occupied country in dark closing message
Trump has made false claims about Democrats cheating. Officials urge voters not to be misled by conspiracies
Trump is a convicted felon. Here is why he can vote today.
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Maricopa Poll Check Ins as of 7am:
Total: 21.4k
DEM- 4k
GOP – 9.7k
Other- 7.7k
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Thanks.
Chicon
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Cliff Maloney:
REPORT: BEDFORD, CAMBRIA, CLEARFIELD, and SOMERSET scanning machines are down
STAY IN LINE
FILL OUT YOUR BALLOT AND PLACE IN LOCKBOX
THIS IS WHY YOU NEED TO VOTE EARLY… absolute incompetency happening on the ONE DAY that the majority of Trump voters vote
STAY IN LINE!
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Guam Exit Poll shows Republicans flipping the legislature, which has been Democratic the last 16 year
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Almost made it to election dqy
Bernard “Bernie” Marcus, the billionaire Home Depot cofounder and a Republican megadonor, who in recent years became an outspoken supporter of former President Donald Trump, has died, the company announced Tuesday. He was 95.
“The entire Home Depot family is deeply saddened by the death of our cofounder Bernie Marcus,” The Home Depot said in a statement. “We owe an immeasurable debt of gratitude to Bernie.”
Marcus, who had a net worth of about $7.4 billion, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index, gained his fortune from establishing The Home Depot with Arthur Blank in 1978. The duo grew the orange-clad hardware store into a retail behemoth that now has 2,300 stores and a stock market valuation of nearly $400 billion.
Born in 1929 in Newark, New Jersey, to Russian Jewish immigrants, Marcus was the youngest of four siblings. He earned his degree in merchandising and marketing at Rutgers University and went into the retailing industry working for various chains”
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Rs are winning Hillsborough county FL (Tampa, where Trump lost twice) 40-28 on Election Day. And they led in total early by 1.1% on top of that
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Those are big Trump counties, he won Bedford by like 80-20 last time.
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I thought Guam tipped and sank.
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The face of the CNN hack when analyst says the math is not working for the Dems
https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1853742847997997495?ref_src=twsrctfw|twcamptweetembed|twterm1853742847997997495|twgrc142474a1fd6397a21832e8c5a9ce60426537a5c|twcons1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Fsamj%2F2024%2F11%2F05%2Fwatch-cnn-panel-as-analyst-explains-how-math-doesnt-add-up-for-democrats-n2403272
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Dana Bash takes the news Meghan Kelly is speaking at Trump’s rally really well. Look at her shuffle her papers..
https://x.com/DogRightGirl/status/1853549349449470117?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853549349449470117%7Ctwgr%5Eafb6d7301eb0d248fdc6aabe2c48f498334ac178%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fjenniferoo%2F2024%2F11%2F05%2Fmegyn-kelly-endorses-trump-in-pennsylvania-cnns-dana-bash-shows-her-claws-n2181547
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Yea always large r counties
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Bucks county ljne
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853807012733206577?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Hello, Tina.
Chicon
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Mark Cuban apologizes for saying Trump doesn’t associate with strong intelligent women and claims “his wife knows what he meant”
“It’s part of politics, it was my mistake, and I apologized for it. I certainly wasn’t saying anything negative about anyone supporting Trump,” Cuban said.
He also revealed his wife’s opinion on the comments.
“Tiffany watched the entire interview and had no issue with it. She knew what I was trying to say,” Cuban said.
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Chicon you can submit your justification for being AWOL for so long, we will attach it to your A-hole application.
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NT at 10:30 just to keep the threads manageable.
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Jason, the application has languished for years; an amendment will delay the process even further.
Chicon
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Can we glean anything from early data?
Chicon
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Actually this is a better link to follow Florida. Nice graphics and all the county data is quickly visible and accessible. Scroll down to “vote breakdowns” on “election day votes only”
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
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https://flvoicenews.com/florida-ge-live/#google_vignette
Florida live results of partyID on ballots cast
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Florida’s Voice
@FLVoiceNews
·
13m
Florida Election Day update:
🔴 REP: 47.69% [259,817]
🔵 DEM: 25.17% [137,105]
🟡 NPA: 24.06% [131,088]
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Chicon,
FL R’s are voting like crazy today, so at least here the cannibalization theory is null and void. Not sure if there is any site for other states that are similar to the ones I have posted that give real time data on the turnout by party. Florida may be unique in that counties report data all throughout the day.
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GOP closing in on a 1,000,000 vote lead in Florida, nearly 11% gap to Dem ballots.
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I believe Baris indicated yesterday that his final Florida polling was Trump +9. That’s a 6 point improvement from his 2020 margin.
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Your application will be up for a vote. Soon.
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Jason, the application has languished for years; an amendment will delay the process even further.
Chicon”
Sorry, but A-holes are sometimes bureaucratic and have to follow a process before fruition.
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“Don’t hurry an A-hole” is one motto we abide by.
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FL e-day vote currently is R+22.2
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@JackPosobiec
“Morale couldn’t be lower right now, it’s not even noon and they’re already raging on about misogyny” – per WH official
·
118.8K Views
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TXPhil,
Florida and Trump deserve each other.
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Kamala crashing at Predictit not sure why
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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“Morale couldn’t be lower right now, it’s not even noon and they’re already raging on about misogyny”
She might lose because:
Take your pick
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I would say choice number 3.
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Bingo
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MIght be a classic “misreading the room”…
“Trump has been waffling on abortion since before Dobbs. When Alabama passed its extreme anti-abortion law, Trump claimed he would have vetoed it. His problem is that his brand has become associated with anti-abortion laws, and nothing he says changes what people are seeing happen out there. He has no regrets in SCOTUS overturning Roe and that’s all most voters care about“
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Glad you voted Trump, Jason. I understand your hesitation over Ukraine and tariffs.
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Thanks Phil.
But that was not my hesitation. I voted for Trump in 2020 knowing he wanted stupid tariffs and trade wars.
My concern is Vance becoming President with views are I think are extremely dangerous.
But in the end, I decided that is a fight for another day.
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I think 15% positive is an exaggeration…
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1853807961442754591/photo/1
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1m
🚨 MARICOPA, AZ UPDATE – Election Day
🔴 REP: 16,358 (43.6%)
🔵 DEM: 7,387 (19.7%)
Margin: R+23.9
Source: Uplift Data
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Yikes! Arizona is going to be a Trump plus 5 or 6. Might even pull Lake over the finish line.
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GOP lead in FL now 11.02, nearing a million vote lead
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Kamala tells people in staged “door knocking” they have to go inside so she can knock.
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FL R lead is now over 1M
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Huge lines in rural Wisconsin voting places, and then here is the weather forecast for Milwaukee:
Showers likely before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 5pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
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The media has ALWAYS been in the tank for Dems. Look at the image below from 44 year ago:
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