Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
179 responses to “Helicopters flying near my office. Harris inbound to rally 1 mile from my office. Eye of the storm.”
@BehizyTweets
BREAKING: The Georgia Supreme Court just ruled that ballots cannot be accepted and counted AFTER the deadline by election officials anywhere in the state Democrats in Cobb County wanted to accept 3,000 mail-in ballots AFTER Election Day deadline, but the Court just shut down their plans THIS IS BEAUTIFUL.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Victory Insights, a left leaning pollster:
NEW MEXICO
Nov. 1-3, 600LV
Trump 45
Harris 50
US SENATE:
Heinrich (D) 50%
Domenici (R) 49%
LikeLiked by 1 person
The instructions were clear. You just give me a number for each state, indicating the margin, and then you indicate who will win:
MI: T+1
WI: T+2
VA: H+3
And so on. Then I will load your predictions into that grid.”
Everyone has to fill in that whole grid?
What happened to the traditional predictions? President, Senate, House.
I gave my predictions, that’s it. I think trying to assign numbers to each state is meaningless, it should just be who wins.
LikeLike
tate Democrats in Cobb County wanted to accept 3,000 mail-in ballots AFTER Election Day deadline,”
How did they know they would have 3,000 mail ins AFTER the election?? Either they have them now or don’t, right?
LikeLike
just for context, Victory Insights has Trump up 2 in AZ, Trump up 4 in FL. So they don’t appear to be a GOP cheerleader
LikeLike
“How did they know they would have 3,000 mail ins AFTER the election?? Either they have them now or don’t, right?”
Yes, they HAVE them. They are in the back hatch of a huge SUV waiting to be brought in.
LikeLike
President
PA-Trump, MI-Trump, WI-Trump, NV-Trump, AZ-Trump, GA-Trump, NC-Trump,
VA-Harris, MN-Harris, NH-Harris, NM-Harris, FL-Trump, TX-Trump
Senate
FL-R, MT-R, OH-R, WI-R, MI-R, PA-R, NV-D, MD-D, AZ-D, VA-D, NM-D, MN-D (ALSO WV-R)
Summary:
Trump –312 EV
Senate (new composition) 55-R, 45-D/I
House (new composition) 227-R, 211-D
LikeLike
So again, this is the premise Dems are trying to sell us. Trump is going to do better in heavily leaning Blue states, which is why the national vote is closer, but will do worse in swing states with Republicans, and that’s how Harris will win. Because old GOP women will vote Blue in the red states, negating the gains he makes in dark blue states.
HUH????
LikeLiked by 1 person
I wanted numbers jason, otherwise almost certain to be a tie in the end.
LikeLike
DW:
Thanks for setting up the thread for predictions.
Is it ok to be counted without numbers? If so and there is a tie with me, i stipulate now that the other poster wins. My mind simply cannot compute all those numbers for each state.
LikeLike
WI – Harris +0.3
MI – Harris +0.2
PA – Trump +0.8
NC – Trump +1.8
GA – Trump +2.3
AZ – Tump +3.2
NV – Trump +0.7
FL – Trump +8,2
TX – Trump +7.1
Trump 287-251
Senate
R’s flip, WV, MT, OH, WI
Senate – R – 53
House – R 223-212
Though if he wins PA, GA and NC, I almost hope he loses NV and AZ so he wins 270-268 because that would be delicious. Talk about heads exploding…but to be honest, the country doesn’t need that, so sticking with my predictions
LikeLiked by 1 person
Trump wins all swing states except MI. That includes NV where Ralstonhack beclowns himself, what a despicable ass. So 297-241.
Rs + 4 in senate WV, MT, WI and OH. I almost put it in Lake but I think she will come up just short. Same with Rodgers. If Trump wins MI then Rodgers will win too.
R +5 in House.”
LikeLike
Ok, here is what we can do.
Just repeat all of Vic’s numbers for the states except WI where I will have WI +0.9
LikeLiked by 1 person
+0.9 T
LikeLike
I will decide tomorrow if I will vote for Trump or not.
I am cognizant of the enormity of the stakes here, basically socialism vs. crony capitalism.
At the same time, I have been comfortable with my vow not to vote for candidates I don’t think should be in office.
My out here is that while Vance is technically in “office” as VP, he is not the President.
I have to sleep on it.
LikeLiked by 1 person
3,000 absentee ballots were mailed out “late”.
I still think the Rnc should litigate nevada now. Congress sets the election date.
LikeLike
I hope you’re right about Wisconsin
LikeLike
So again, this is the premise Dems are trying to sell us. Trump is going to do better in heavily leaning Blue states, which is why the national vote is closer, but will do worse in swing states with Republicans, and that’s how Harris will win.”
This is not entirely wrong.
I have been making this point often here. IF Trump cuts into the Dems lead in populous states like CA, IL, NY, etc. then the calculation that he can still win with a Harris +2 nationally might not stand up.
LikeLike
Sounds worried. And he is lying.
Dave McCormick and his billionaire backers think they can fool you about anything,” the ad says. “The truth? Bob Casey’s not for men in girls’ sports.”
LikeLike
I think WI is close enough that Trump could easily win by as point or so.
LikeLike
Kamala dropping in the PA market on Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner?tid=1730756984702
LikeLike
Her low there was 38%, now 42% not far from it.
LikeLike
Sabato, another Dem hack:
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853554298149326970/photo/1
LikeLike
Sabato 2016
https://www.270towin.com/maps/crystal-ball-electoral-college-ratings
LikeLike
So the Dem spin is that they are going to be saved by old white women, who hate Trump in red states, but are okay with him in blue states, and this is because Dem’s aren’t preaching this time that the youth vote will save them?
LikeLike
sorry, it is no more “news” what Sabato’s final prediction is, than the bakery cookie contests. Sabato is a hack who just pulls numbers out of his ear.
LikeLike
People hoping and hoping…
“Guys, most Covid deaths were Trump supporters. PA will turn blue”
LikeLike
I wonder if there are not men who won’t tell their wives they are voting for Trump…
LikeLike
Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
30m
Here is Ralston’s NV prediction.
What I will add is that, in our polling, Trump leads by 13% among people who plan to vote on election day:
LikeLike
oh my, partisan Covid deaths in PA are going to save them now?
LikeLike
I have uploaded Vic, jason, and hodges into the prediction contest grid. Everyone is doing it however they want, rather than following the instructions, so in pure HHR fashion, there will be endless debates as to the winner.
LikeLiked by 2 people
The “machine will win it for Harris” says Ralstonhack
any people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent
LikeLike
okay, here is one pollster who took Selzer literally:
FINAL NEW HAMPSHIRE poll
🔵 Harris: 62% (+28)
🔴 Trump: 34%
2020 result: Biden+7
Dartmouth | 11/1-3 | N=587RV
LikeLike
Translation:
Trump wins, Dems keep counting.
LikeLike
Rv pole lol.
LikeLike
Hola, HHR! I
l’ll deal with the troll later, busy with real life and lack the time right now. Don’t know if I posted this the other day, but my Libertarian Party apparatchik in WI thinks Trump will win by 3. He was leaning to 2-3 over the weekend, but seems more confident of that now. He’s also decided that he is going to vote for Trump just in case, because holding his nose for Trump is much better than risking Kamala.
LikeLiked by 1 person
lol
“There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. “
LikeLike
The NM polling is a pleasant surprise in that the R senate candidate, Domenici, is only one point behind her dem opponent. She may deliver an upset, upping the number of republicans controlling a new Republican Senate.
LikeLike
I am pretty confident about WI, and also wrestled with T+2 or T+3. Right now I have settled on 2. Remember that map in 2016, as the rural flood just washed over the counties. I see a repeat, with soft numbers coming out of Milwaukee and the WOW counties going bananas for Trump.
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
2m
🚨 BREAKING: Judge DENIES Democratic Philly DA’s effort to block
@ElonMusk
‘s $1M giveaway to swing state voters
LikeLike
Hey guys,
I am just relating to you my experiences of interacting for many the last 10 years personally, socially, a bunch of various organizations, on social media, etc. here in WV, especially with college educated, 50-plus women–90% of whom were/are educators or former teachers, principals, vice principals, etc. (most in my social circles are 70+ women that fill all those other demographics).
I have to bite my tongue when in social setting. Sometimes I will say “I wish I had a dollar for everything that everyone believed about the election that was not true.” and leave it go at that. Sometimes I am not successful in keeping my mouth shut further and it becomes uncomfortable for all.
That demographic of college educated 50-plus women is public and palpable (and depressing to me).
I think you are wrong to denigrate and demean that group of women for their deeply held view of Trump.
But I tell you, 90%+ of these women in that demographic of college degrees and in education professions are in no way persuadable to vote for Trump. And they ARE voting. I suspect that demographic is similar in other states as to their view of Trump. I hope these Kamala voters get outvoted by the Trump voters. I would suspect that other women over 50 yrs old in other occupations would not be so vehemently anti-Trump.
LikeLiked by 1 person
DW, since you’re actively dealing with the prediction grid, I want to change my NM senate vote to a red +1, going for the possibility of a Domenici win.
LikeLike
Walt, these women sound hard nose leftists who would vote for Satan himself if he had a D after his name and was running.
What I think is telling is Selzer is appealing to this group to save them, rather than appealing to the youth vote which is normally what they appeal to.
I look at polling internals pretty often, and have not seen anything like what Selzer is saying. The issue with the women you describe is their commie higher ed background, not their gender.
I saw a video of a bunch of urban black women being interviewed, and they shockingly said they were for Trump, because Harris didn’t have what it takes.
LikeLike
“change my NM senate vote to a red +1”
Done
LikeLike
Harris could not even fill the bleachers in the tiny gym at Muhlenburg College in PA.
LikeLike
I think you are wrong to denigrate and demean that group of women for their deeply held view of Trump.”
I think it is the opposite. YOU are demeaning them by designating them as so shallow they would vote against their interests and/or ignore issues because “Trump is mean”.
Frankly, I think you are insulting them. When I told my wife, who is no fan of Trump. that is what she said “come on, these women need to get a grip and buck up” but what she really meant is she doesn’t believe other women are that shallow.
LikeLike
I still wish that the GOP had made more of the issue of Democrats are coming after your little boys’ private parts trying to get them cut off.
LikeLike
Walt, I actually have seen similar patterns from older college-educated women. However, most of the women I know were already entrenched in liberalism, and were not republicans. Middle-aged women, despite their party affiliation, tend to be more flexible in their voting patterns. And, those women, college-educated, in their 30’s seem more bound by their pro choice orthodoxy, and are a one issue voter (abortion) and are voting for Harris.
LikeLike
Women might rightly understand that the first woman POTUS needs to be a Margaret Thatcher, because if its instead a dingbat, it would be harder thereafter to elect a woman. That’s essentially what those black women in that video I saw were saying.
LikeLike
“of whom were/are” educators or former teachers, principals, vice principals,”
Wait, I just re-read this now.
Yes, I can believe women in academia are anti-Trump, but not because of Trump, it is because academia is just rife with far leftists who would never vote for ANY Republican.
If Walt is just referring to women in academia, yeah, I can believe 90% will vote for Harris.
But that has nothing to do with “mean tweets”.
LikeLike
Women are often a surprise to other women in what they think are important.
LikeLike
I don’t know much about NM politics, so I don’t know if it makes sense the R candidate would outpoll Trump.
I know Domenici is a household name.
LikeLike
Scooter’s Predictions !!!!
My prediction track record is not too good. So there’s that !!!!
PA: Trump +3
WI: Trump + 2
MI: Trump +1
GA: Trump +4
AZ: Trump ++4
NV: Trump +1
NC: Trump + 4
Senate: Pubs pick up
Montana
West Virginia
Ohio
Wisconsin
House:
R + 6
LikeLike
Women can be very critical of other women. I have seen quite a few women talk about Kamala, and it isn’t pretty.
LikeLike
DW, Scooter wins tiebreakers due to being deaf and being an A-hole.
LikeLike
Allentown Quemala rally looks like a hs gym and sections empty.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853561815021605257?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
LikeLike
Nah, it’s “elementary, my dear Watson”….clear as the nose on my face. Way too many ‘canaries in coal mine’. Teamsters non endorsement, likewise the Firefighters Union, WaPo, La Times etc.
Trumps win easily
Arizona 4.5
Nevada 2.5
Georgia 4.0
North Carolina 5.0
Pennslyvania 4.5
Wisconsin 3.0
Michigan 3.5
Senate
R’s pick up 4 to lead 53
House
R’s pick up 8
Prediction….this will be over come tomorrow night and will not linger any longer. Like I said time and time again there are way, way, way too many canaries in the coal mine going against Harris.
LikeLike
I saw that same video DW referenced about the black women being interviewed. What stood out about their exchanges is that they all seemed strong-minded, straight talkers, and may even be the head of their households. Economics and personality strength of a leader were important to them – Harris failed at both.
LikeLike
Hmmmm…
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8070/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona
LikeLike
If John Goggin is right and Trump wins AZ by 4.5 then Lake could win too. I just don’t see that many Trump/Gallego voters like for example Trump/Sinema.
Gallego is a hard core leftist.
LikeLike
“I don’t know if it makes sense the R candidate would outpoll Trump.”
Possibly not. OTOH, Garvey has consistently outpolled Trump by five to seven points in deep Blue CA. It could be that a known quantity (or at least a familiar name) not directly linked to Trump can pull some moderate Indies and never-Trump Rs. In CA, it won’t be anywhere near enough, but in NM, where a competent R can usually get to 45 or 46% statewide, having that “name you know” just might do it. Heinrich topped out at 54% in the horrible year of 2018, so he’s not a major juggernaut. Some reluctant Harris voters may also want a Republican Senate as a check on a potential Harris Administration.
LikeLiked by 1 person
FINAL IOWA poll
🔴 Trump: 52.4% (+6.8)
🔵 Harris: 45.6%
InsiderAdvantage | 11/2-3 | N=800LV
LikeLike
Sinema should have switched parties and run as an R. I think she could have beaten Lake in a primary.
LikeLike
I hate to link to CNN, but their headline doesn’t make you think they believe Harris will win
https://www.cnn.com/
LikeLike
Wow. Time flies when you don’t follow politics or look at polls. Tomorrow is election day and the race is exactly how I expected it to be since the last race, a true tossup. All the money, ads, debates .. and here we are basically flipping a coin. Glad I saved all my time and energy.
I decided to catch up on polls and some news. Definiltely a mixed bag here.
So now both sides have legit landslide scenarios backed by polling data.
One thing I’m interested in is if my benchmarks hold relating the popular vote margin to electoral vote margin.
If it’s true that non-competitive blue states are getting tigher, than that would mess up my benchmarks by a point of two.
Tomorrow is just the beginning of a 2 month journey. Nov 5 -> EV certification on Jan 6, 2025.
Big Joe
LikeLike
Tomorrow will be fun. Trump and the MAGA will think they won for awhile. But we have made sure they will lose. HAH HA HA. FUCK MAGA.
LikeLike
GF, have you seen any recent Garvey/Schiff senate polls?
LikeLike
Debilitating Trump willl be fun as well.
LikeLike
Judge tells Krasner to GFH.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/elon-musk-1-million-giveaway/index.html
LikeLike
Hey Big Joe, I mentioned earlier that I wondered why you haven’t shown up.
LikeLike
We have a predictions thread if you want to take a shot.
LikeLike
This is good conventional wisdom.
But outside of Marist, there aren’t a lot of Harris +4 polls.
LikeLike
Election won’t be over until Trump loses. That’s how it works, folks. AND I LIKE IT.
LikeLike
. HAH HA HA. FUCK MAGA.”
Don’t forget to adjust the clock and take your meds.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Jason!!!
I didnt even see the prediction thread. Looks like an elaborate scoring system. NIce!
Big Joe
LikeLike
Just wait till you see the prize for winning!
i hear its an autographed picture of all the A-holes.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Welcome back, Big Joe! I always appreciate a sane Dem here. 🙂
Jan, it’s going to be a Schiff blowout regardless of the actual margin. That said, a LOT of people hate Schiff, even a number of Dems I know. My hope is that that few undecideds break towards Garvey as a protest and he can just cross 40%; an underfunded no-name against Newsome got 41%, so it’s not impossible. Last poll I saw had Schiff at 53-54%, with Garvey in the mid-30s. That’s a whole lot of undecideds this late in the game in a Top Two system. It’s also possible that CA sees a huge dropoff in total votes what with al the people who have left the state in the past six, but especially, the past three years,; this would narrow Schiff’s margin of victory that much further (we’re right about eight million today, and I dont see a full ten million coming out tomorrow, probably seven to eight tops).
LikeLike
The problem with the Dem’s theory that there will be this overwhelming surge of old women who normally vote R but will vote D because they hate Trump so much, is that Trump has consistently run ahead of ALL the R senate candidates, both in red states and blue states.
Now in the last few weeks, some of the senate candidates like Hovde have nearly caught up to Trump.
But if the Dem theory was true, we would expect all these R senate candidates to run well ahead of Trump.
LikeLike
Harris tanking in ALL betting markets
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
LikeLike
for those keeping score at home, the final Insider Advantage poll of IOWA in 2020 was
Trump 48, Biden 46
LikeLike
About Cobb County GA, there were 3,200 absentee ballots mailed out late due to high demand and processing issues. As long as the ballots are postmarked by tomorrow and received by friday, they will be set aside until a final decision is made on what to do with them. My son away at college is one of these 3,200.
GA is a mess. The hand counting requirement seems to have gone away, the “reasonable inquiry” to hold up certification may still be in place.
Let’s just hope it doesn’t come down to 3,200 votes in GA and let’s also hope the entire election does not hinge on GA. If that happens, GA will make 2000 Florida look like block party.
Big Joe
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thanks GF !
Big Joe
LikeLike
Jon Ralston Nevada Predictions: 2020 Predictions: 🔵 Biden 49% (+4) 🔴 Trump 45% – Results: 🔵 Biden +2.4 | 2022 Predictions: 🔵 Masto 47 (+2) 🔴 Laxalt 45 – Results: 🔵 Masto +0.8 | 2024 Predictions: 🔵 Harris 48.5 (+0.3) 🔴 Trump 48.2
LikeLike
By Friday, when the dust has settled, the screams at the moon have run their course and blue cities still smolder (catch that aroma, Mrs. Tampon?), here’s what (some) pundits will say about the unexpected Red Wave of 2024:
1.) The Black vote: many just stayed home, unable to commit to either candidate, while many of the younger ones went for Trump, remembering how jobs were more plentiful under Orangeman, and their neighborhoods were safer, less violent.
2.) The Female vote: too many moms and grandmothers put their offspring first- they saw the harm being done by the influx of unvetted invaders, many of whom brought disease, violence and drugs with them. They want better for their kids/grandkids.
3.) The Muslim vote: unlike their rabidly anti-Zionist kin in Gaza, most Muslim-Americans desire peace over war and destruction. They have built happy and prosperous lives, some multi-generational, here in the States. They saw Harris as four more years of what the Biden regime hath wrought upon the Middle East- a waffling diplomacy bringing the area no closer to a lasting peace, versus the 4 years of relative calm under Trump.
4.) The Male vote: misogynist pigs who just could not darken the oval for a cackling banshee who reminded them of either ex-wife number three or all four mothers-in-law.
LikeLike
Not sure why AtlasIntel is polling the states AGAIN. Makes no sense. At this stage people are NOT interested in being polled, especially if they have already voted.
LikeLike
Seems like the GA SC said they cannot be counted and they are suggesting these voters deliver the ballots personally or mail them overnight. You might want to tell your son that.
LikeLike
Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
The firewall in Pennsylvania in now being changed again, again. Democrats offered the 500M number, which was disputed, and now it’s 400M, which they already had as of this AM. Just so dishonest.
·
138.1K Views
LikeLike
We may not know who won by friday, Jeffrey Boy. Likely Trump will have lost by Friday.
LikeLiked by 2 people
What is your feeling about GA, Big Joe?
Our old poster Tim from GA told Bitter on FB he thinks Trump may win.
LikeLike
I don’t see how they win with 400k firewall.
LikeLike
We may not know who won by friday, Jeffrey Boy. Likely Trump will have lost by Friday.”
I guess Paul didn’t read the SCOTUS decision that whoever wins by Wednesdays gets inaugurated on Thursday?
LikeLike
Trump will lose it is guaranteed. Won’t know final results until Friday or later. But Trump’s loss is baked in the cake. It will be better for the country. Even if it takes second amendment remedies to the Trump disease.
LikeLike
The Pittsburgh rally is huge.
LikeLike
Paul. Meds. It doesn’t need to be violent
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLike
There are a large number of steel workers in attendance. They broke with their union.
LikeLike
VictC: Yes it doesn’t have to be violent if Trump concedes.
LikeLike
Harris is leading all the predictit betting sites.
LikeLike
There is only one predicit site.
LikeLike
Thanks Jason, yeah there is definitely confusion about the decision. Officially, I do believe that ballots received after 7pm tomorrow will need to be set aside, they wont be immediately destroyed and won’t be counted. Perhaps this is in anticipation of appeal to the US SC (but that may not be possible).
The ballots came with pre-paid express return envelopes (same as overnight). So hopefully they’ve been mailed in by those who are away from the county. My son mailed his this morning.
Cobb went 56-42 for Biden in 2020. R’s and D’s are early voting heavily this year. This decision affects both parties.
Big Joe
LikeLike
DKos Headline
Musk’s 1 million dollar lottery is a rigged scam, his lawyer reveals.
LikeLike
We might not need violence. We might just need mass castration to reduce certain elements.
LikeLike
There is more to the ga sc ruling. The Fulton county ballots illegally casted over the weekend won’t count.
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLike
I wish the SCOTUS would rule the same way in NV.
Ballot received after the end of election day should NEVER be counted anywhere, except perhaps from military overseas.
There is something called personal responsibility, you make sure you mail your ballot in time or you vote in person.
It is not that difficult. I understand in GA the county was late mailing the ballots but maybe these people were late requesting them.
This is a reason people don’t have confidence in the system.
LikeLiked by 1 person
We might just need mass castration to reduce certain elements.”
Yes, the thought of Paul reproducing is scary as hell.
LikeLike
“DW, Scooter wins tiebreakers due to being deaf and being an A-hole.”
I second that motion.
LikeLike
Tina: More Fucking Cheating From Trump. FUCK MAGA UP THE ASS.
LikeLike
Ok, i am a bit confused. Why is Doltz campaigning in Minnesota today?
LikeLike
I removed Paul’s thinly veiled threat of shooting Trump. Is that censorship? Sure. I don’t care.
LikeLike
“Just wait till you see the prize for winning!
i hear its an autographed picture of all the A-holes.”
Wait……What ????
You guys took a picture ????
Bastards !!!!!!
LikeLike
Trump will appear to win Tuesday night. Then counts will come in to take it away from Trump. And righteousness will take place.
LikeLike
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/shes-cooked-kamala-harris-interview-popular-web-video/
LikeLike
Trump will eventually lose. It may take a few days for his loss. But it will happen.
LikeLike
Rasmussen Head Pollster Mark Mitchell confirms polls show a Trump LANDSLIDE:
“I agree that there is a pretty solid case that happens. It’s predicated on all the Republican registration gains.. There is a much better case for a Trump landslide than a Harris over-performance.”
LikeLike
Jason,
Regarding my feelings on GA, all I can do is give you anecdotal comparisons to 2020. In my suburban area, the Trump signs outnumber Harris signs about 10:1. Trump also had a similar sign advantage over Biden in 2020 but lost the burbs. Karen Handel had a greater advantage over Lucy McBath but lost handily. The R’s definitely know how to work the signs.
Anyway, in 2020 the suburban vote swung to the D’s. There’s a reversion to the mean expected, but that reversion did not materialize in the 2020 runoffs or the 2022 senate race. The more traditional Republicans did win state-wide in 2022, including Kemp winning easily over Abrams.
Now, the polls are showing a consistent but small Trump lead. All it takes is a 1 point swing from 2020 to swing the entire state and I will not be surprised at all if Trump wins GA by a point of two.
So overall, I’m thinking GA is exactly how it was in 2020. It is going to be very close and all depends on turnout.
Big Joe
LikeLike
Prediction:
Harris 279
Trump 259
PA – Harris +1.5
GA – Harris +1
NC – Trump +1
AZ – Trump + 1.2
NV- Trump + 1
WI – Trump +1.5
MI – Harris + 2
Senate – Flip MT, WV, OH
House 220 R 215 D
I hope I am wrong and Trump wins. I think abortion is a bigger factor in close races than the rest of HHR. We’ll see.
LikeLike
Harris might just need “find 11,780 votes.” Maybe she’ll do a better job of that than Trump did.
LikeLike
Howdee Big Joe. Hope all is well. Was there a second ga sc decision regarding Fulton county being opened this past weekend? Any more details, if true?
LikeLike
Tina, apparently part of the same court decision; Fulton ballots will not be counted, those who submitted them have time to drop them off by COB Tuesday.
LikeLike
Just “find 11,780 votes.” and Harris wins.
LikeLike
Thanks, gf. I wish hee haw would have sent in the gsp and arrested those Fulton county violators.
LikeLike
I wish TINA was tortured.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Atlas Intel deliever their second “final” poll. Stable, shows Trump up 1.1 in the NPV (49-48).
LikeLike
LikeLike
Baris: I expected Democrats to surge in these states at the end, telling people they would close the gap in PA and closer in states like NV to within 20k.
But they didn’t.
You have to contort yourself into a @RalstonReports Pretzel to spin this positively for Democrats.
It’s bad.
LikeLike
Tina and GF,
From what I’m seeing, the removal of the deadline extension only applies to Cobb. GF, do you have a link that shows it also applies to Fulton? I don’t know if Fulton even mailed out such late ballots so the situation appears to be specific to Cobb.
Also Tina, I think you were asking about a separate issue which was several counties accepting absentee ballots over the weekend. I am not seeing that the GA SC has weighed in here.
Big Joe
LikeLiked by 1 person
So Trump wins if Bitter is wrong about GA, which he will be.
LikeLike
Big Joe is right that decision only applied to Cobb.
LikeLike
ATLAS INTEL: TRUMP LEADS SEVEN SWING STATES. WITHIN TWO IN MINNESOTA🚨🚨
🔴 ARIZONA: TRUMP +5.1%
🔴 GEORGIA: TRUMP +1.6%
🔴MICHIGAN: TRUMP +1.5%
🔴NEVADA: TRUMP +3.1%
🔴NORTH CAROLINA: TRUMP +2.1%
🔴PENNSYLVANIA: TRUMP +1.0%
🔴WISCONSIN: TRUMP +0.9%
🔵MINNESOTA: HARRIS +2.0%
🔵VIRGINIA; HARRIS +5.4%
LikeLike
I will be out with the IncaPolls 7AM exits at 7:01 tomorrow morning.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Trump will only appear to win but he will lose in several days and weeks from now.
LikeLike
Thanks, other than the tweet, I could not find out anything about Fulton, big Joe, I checked the Twitter feed of Phil Holloway, an attorney in ga.
LikeLike
Tina, BJ;
I must have misread this, then; thought the Fulton ballots would not be counted.
@amuse on X: “ELECTION INTEGRITY: Two big wins in Georgia for election integrity. Ballots collected over the weekend at Fulton County’s illegal ballot collection locations will not be counted according the Supreme Court. The court also ruled that 3,000 late absentee ballots from Cobb County https://t.co/69mo0PRXvf” / X
LikeLike
GF, Tina,
Yeah I looked at that tweet. Not sure who/what “amuse” is. No link was provided in the claim that the weekend ballots would not be counted. It may be true that they wont be counted but a link to the decision (if it exists) would have been good 🙂
Big Joe
LikeLike
gf, bj – agreed a link would be best.
LikeLike
I’m focusing on criminal acts against Trump.
LikeLike
Suicide by cop
LikeLike
Paul,
Tomorrow Trump is deleted from the history of the American electorate.
It’s almost here.
LikeLike
Oh look BL predicts a Harris victory but is too spineless to actually vote for the candidate.
What a disgrace.
LikeLike
Paul take your meds and go to bed
LikeLike
Paul – I have the hammer. Be as progressive as you want but tone down the references to violence. Thank you in advance.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Mama’s boy posts from the basement in Kanada.
He is reading about “rethugs” over at DKos and getting excited.
LikeLike
WISCONSIN: Harris
PENNSYLVANIA: Harris
GEORGIA: Harris
NEVADA: Trump
ARIZONA: Harris
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump
MICHIGAN: Harris
LikeLike
Just wait till you see the prize for winning!
i hear its an autographed picture of all the A-holes.”
*********
I thought itr also included a pint of Cash Cow’s cream….
LikeLike
Poor bastards like Dumbchuck consider it a “win” if they can get a Marxist airhead like Kamala elected President.
It’s a new definition of “winning”.
LikeLike
Bitter has more balls as a mod on the internet than in real life. Can’t make this shit up really.
Jason my basement is better than yours. Stop being a troll. Your attempt at trolling is quite lame.
LikeLike
I thought itr also included a pint of Cash Cow’s cream…”
That’s fine as long as Cash Cow has not “transitioned” into a bull…
LikeLike
NEVADA: Trump
The Kanadian Kommie is calling Ralstonhack a liar?
Wow.
LikeLike
Your attempt at trolling is quite lame.”
Hey Bitter.
This is new, should get big points!
LikeLike
Being called a troll after so many years? 100 points.
LikeLike
BL,
How about being a weak pathetic loser who is voting for a man with no moral upstanding?
LikeLike
Hope I’m posting my predictions on the right thread:
AZ +3T GA +2T NC +3T PA +2T NV+2T
MI +1T WI +2T NH -1H VA -2H MN -2H
NM -3H FL +9T TX +6T
SENATE:
Flips- MT, OH, NV, WI (5 pickups with WV)
LikeLike
I got two calls.
One was from Rs saying “our records show you haven’t voted yet” which is correct, my wife still registered as an R, please vote tomorrow.
The other was from Erie Pa, a black woman who said “Hello Philadelphia, we carried Joe Biden to victory in 2020 and we will do it again in 2024”.
LOL
LikeLike
GF, just got back to this thread and saw your detailed response to my Garvey/Schiff polling question. Thanks.I obviously am not a Schiff fan, and only wish we could have had a more well suited opponent to oppose him. Garvey, IMO, turned out to be a lightweight. It will be interesting, though, to see the final election night tallies.
LikeLike
Flips- MT, OH, NV, WI (5 pickups with WV)”
Interesting pick, NV.
I think Brown is running about 4-5 pts behind Trump, so I don’t think he will win, a pity.’
But i hope you are right.
LikeLike
How about being a weak pathetic loser who is voting for a man with no moral upstanding?”
He is NOT voting for Biden.
GFY.
LikeLike
“No moral upstanding”
Is that a Kanadian expression?
LikeLike
Zzzzzz I’ve been calling Trump an Amoral Scumbag and a RINO since 2015. But in the real world, somebody has to win and Democrat candidates will never get my vote. I can live with it. Thankfully, tomorrow will be the last time Trump gets my vote.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Interesting ballot news from PA.
Citizen Free Press
@CitizenFreePres
Dems were expecting to net 50,000 ballots today in Pennsylvania. The actual number is 2,400.
Quote
Mark Davin Harris
@markdharris
·1hPA VBM update – Strong update today. Dems only squeak out 2,411 net votes. Starting to really run out of ramp. GOP likely to take over the return rate lead.
LikeLike
New thread at 9:00. I’m tired of scrolling.
LikeLike
Van Jones:
“Nervous” about PA.
Thinks Kamala took a big hit on the Jewish vote.
LikeLike
Karma. This is the SOS behind fabricating evidence against a 78 year old gold star mother and election clerk, Tina Peters, who is serving a 9-year prison sentence for a similar allegation.
STORYColorado Libertarians sue Secretary of State Jena Griswold over leak of voting equipment passwords
Ernest Luning ernest.luning@coloradopolitics.com
LikeLike
Jason the rethug, your grammar and English comprehension clearly needs help. Rethugs hate education so i’m not surprised.
LikeLike
This is actually beyond pathetic. Unbelievable. Spineless.
LikeLike
Sad.
“A US soldier who was critically injured over the summer while on the temporary Gaza pier mission died last week, the Army said Monday.
The soldier, 23-year-old Sgt. Quandarius Davon Stanley, was one of three US service members injured in non-combat incidents during the mission, though two were immediately returned to duty after suffering minor injuries. He was assigned to the 7th Transportation Brigade (Expeditionary), out of Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia.”
LikeLike
So parents who lose a child in military service should not be sentenced for committing crimes? Got it.
LikeLike
Jason the rethug, your grammar and English comprehension clearly needs help.”
LOL
You wrote:
“No moral upstanding”
Here in America, you can have “no moral standing”
Or you might be of an “upstanding moral character”
What you wrote just proves what your are: a little uneducated ignorant blood sucking parasite still living in mommy’s basement.
LikeLike
Jason the rethug don’t embarrass yourself. Both are correct here in America. Don’t be dumb and ignorant at the same time. Upstanding and standing are used in standard American English.
LikeLike
Megyn Kelly on stage with Trump in Pittsbugh
LikeLike
“Upstanding and standing are used in standard American English”
Keep digging.
Both are standard.
“No moral upstanding”
No.
LikeLike
Look moron, go back to shilling for your hero Trudeau and stay out of things you have no understanding of.
And try to educate yourself a little, take some correspondence courses from the couch in the basement.
LikeLike
Interesting
TRUMP WILL RECEIVE 45% OF THE JEWISH VOTE
NO REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE HAS EVER ACHIEVED THIS
ANY REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WHO HAS EVER RECEIVED OVER 30% OF THE JEWISH VOTE HAS WON THE PRESIDENCY
https://x.com/hikinddov/status/1853213142945267849?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
LikeLike
Trafalgar incoming.
trump +2.1 in Arizona
Trump,+ 6.9 in ohio
LikeLike
I just played the only Rosie o donnel response.
Meghan has also done a 180
LikeLike
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1853615958801436714?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
LikeLike
Rogan endorses Trump.
LikeLike
LikeLike